Morning Line not right

[luisbe]

I completely disagree with Mike Battaglia's Mubtaahij ML, I think it'll be more like:
AP 5-2
Dort 3-1
Mub 8-1
CD 10-1
FL 12-1
Fros 12-1
Ups 15-1
Mate and IS 20-1

[horses4courses]

cj tweeted that the line was set at 157%, which is very steep.
I didn't check the math, but I assume he's right.

I don't believe Dortmund will be less than 4-1.
Mubtaahij won't be 20-1 - he could go off close to half that.

Don't have a problem with much else, except some of
his 20 and 30-1 shots will go off higher to get things
closer to the 17.5% takeout.

Battaglia's line is set to more than three times that. :ThmbDown:

[Cholly]

cj tweeted that the line was set at 157%, which is very steep.
I didn't check the math, but I assume he's right.

I don't believe Dortmund will be less than 4-1.
Mubtaahij won't be 20-1 - he could go off close to half that.

Don't have a problem with much else, except some of
his 20 and 30-1 shots will go off higher to get things
closer to the 17.5% takeout.

Battaglia's line is set to more than three times that. :ThmbDown:

One hrs @ 5-2 = .28
One hrs @ 3-1 = .25
One hrs @ 8-1 = .11
Two hrs @ 12-1 = .16
Two hrs @ 15-1 = .12
Two hrs @ 20-1 = .08
7 hrs @ 30-1 = .21
4 hrs @ 50-1 = .08

Sum of that = 129%

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Battaglia should have been bold and made Dortmund the chalk, based on the better post position.

Although I disagree with some of his numbers (I would make Frosted 8-1 or 10-1), you have to cut him some slack since he came up with those numbers in just a few minutes after the post positions were drawn - which isn't much time, even if he of course had preliminary numbers to start with....

Come Friday night/Saturday, I expect a couple of his 20/30/50 to 1 shots to be much lower, and I'm not so sure AP will be so low either....

[SecretAgentMan]

Battaglia definitely had the odds already set, & adjusted according to the post draw within minutes......