Who thinks Baffert might regret putting American Pharaoh & Dortmund in the same race?

[Bill Cullen]

Who thinks Baffert might regret putting American Pharaoh & Dortmund in the same race?

I do.

[boys at tosconova]

why would he regret it?....

[depalma113]

No one.

It's the Kentucky Derby.

[Bill Cullen]

why would he regret it?....

Because I think American Pharaoh & Dortmund might cancel each other out in a speed duel.

[minethatbird08]

It's the Derby so no regrets. If one wins he might regret running them both in another leg of the TC. That will be the more difficult decision. Honestly, you can't skip the Derby when you have two horses like he has. If you sit one and the one that races wins do you just have one horse skip the whole TC?

[ArlJim78]

In the Ark Derby American Pharoah dropped 3 lengths behind an inferior horse in an eight horse field. Why on earth would he go to the front and get into a speed duel with much better horses in a 20 horse field?
Everyone seems to picture him in a speed duel in the derby.
I see him stalking from 3-5 lengths behind the leader.
He's got a lot of natural speed so he is normally in front against the horses he's faced, but he doesn't act overly keen like he can't get comfortable without being in front.

[Bill Cullen]

Honestly, you can't skip the Derby when you have two horses like he has. If you sit one and the one that races wins do you just have one horse skip the whole TC?

I agree that you probably couldn't get away with it vis à vis the owners with two horses of such quality. I would probably do the same thing if I were Baffert.

It just struck me that it would be the supreme irony if they knocked each other out in a speed duel which I think might well develop with Pharaoh having to gun it from the #18 post and Dortmund being harder to rate.

I'll be backing Carpe Diem and Frosted on the top end and International Star and Danzig Moon underneath in the exotics.

Best,

Bill C

[nijinski]

I'd imagine Zayat and Shah want to be there especially the way
Dortmund and AP have performed . Baffert doesn't pay the bills .

The question is why Zayat has the other two entries in . But then
I'm sure someone will be a fan of El Kabeir and Mr Z . I think they don't belong but could be wrong .

[Bill Cullen]

The question is why Zayat has the other two entries in . .

I honestly don't know.

[Frost king]

So that he has two less horses to worry about.

[horses4courses]

Not a chance that he regrets it.
It's not like there is a suitable race to sidestep the Derby for.

Baffert is over the moon to have two young colts this good.
He was in an unfamiliar role last year watching CC, and co., rule the waves.

This year may well be his year again - and he wants to fill the exacta.

[Relwob Owner]

Who thinks Baffert might regret putting American Pharaoh & Dortmund in the same race?

I do.


I don't

[BlueChip@DRF]

It's the Derby so no regrets. If one wins he might regret running them both in another leg of the TC. That will be the more difficult decision. Honestly, you can't skip the Derby when you have two horses like he has. If you sit one and the one that races wins do you just have one horse skip the whole TC?

https://33.media.tumblr.com/7194e3cb1ef3e53d76b10667b36c8f35/tumblr_n1us2zGwC71to9j5io1_250.gif

[Relwob Owner]

https://33.media.tumblr.com/7194e3cb1ef3e53d76b10667b36c8f35/tumblr_n1us2zGwC71to9j5io1_250.gif


That made my night. Thank you

[horses4courses]

Who thinks Baffert might regret putting American Pharaoh & Dortmund in the same race?

I do.

The only conceivable way that he might regret it
is if they have an epic grueling battle down the stretch,
and one duels the other into submission.

The potential physical effects on one, or both,
could mean unfulfilled potential in the future.

Obviously, the chances of this are remote.
Are you having strange dreams at night?

[DelMarJay]

Baffert's workout strategy makes me think he or better said Garcia will be taking Dortmund back further in the pack than AP.

Dortmund didn't want the lead in the Santa Derby but no one else seemed intent on getting it. Also, look at Dortmund's line when he ran last at Churchill. Loved coming from off the pace and destroying young allowance foes.

One thing I guarantee, no way do these stable mates fight on the lead if Espy or Garcia ever want to ride for the silver fox again.

[burnsy]

I doubt that happens, Dortmund has been breaking on top all year with way faster pace then mostly all of these. He bobbled last time and got the second highest pace figure of all the preps. He was like 2 lengths behind at CD (at 1 mile), 4 wide, probably because he was so much better. This horse has not been more than 1/2 a length behind all prep season. He's way quicker out of the gate than most of these, including AP. It would be a huge change on how that barn does things because I think this one is his front runner and AP will never make it playing that role..........Dortmund has a chance to wire this field or stalk very close and still win. He will be in the first flight. I think the other horse will have problems if he tries to be in a quick pace. Personally, just looking at the pace scenarios these two horse have faced, I think Dortmund has a way better chance of winning this race at 10 furlongs. AP has been really fortunate up front, he has not seen the likes of some of these early.

[pandy]

There have been many, many, Derby's, especially in modern times, that looked fast-paced on paper because so many horses had been going to the lead but in almost all cases the fast pace never materialized. This is the race where most of the jockeys that have a horse with speed look to stalk. I think this is more common than years ago since the horses are so lightly raced, they don't have a good foundation for 10 furlongs, and the jockeys know that, so they know that they can't go that fast and expect to have anything left.

[minethatbird08]

I agree that you probably couldn't get away with it vis à vis the owners with two horses of such quality. I would probably do the same thing if I were Baffert.

It just struck me that it would be the supreme irony if they knocked each other out in a speed duel which I think might well develop with Pharaoh having to gun it from the #18 post and Dortmund being harder to rate.

I'll be backing Carpe Diem and Frosted on the top end and International Star and Danzig Moon underneath in the exotics.

Best,

Bill C

Hey, we have about the same same ticket! GL

[letswastemoney]

Dortmund doesn't need the lead. He has rated multiple times by now.

[Robert Fischer]

They'll want to try for the lead out of the gate, but if others want to use a ton of horse early, he'll be just off the lead.

[RoyalHeroine]

https://33.media.tumblr.com/7194e3cb1ef3e53d76b10667b36c8f35/tumblr_n1us2zGwC71to9j5io1_250.gif

Gawd....chalk another one up for the, as Mac Rebennack so eloquently sang, "edumacation system".
This country is on a fast train to the bottom.
Thank God I've got maybe 25 years left.

Need spell check in the ink guns these days I guess...:rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

He could have also meant NO RUGRATS

[Saratoga_Mike]

He could have also meant NO RUGRATS

Is that Bruce Jenner?

[LottaKash]

Who thinks Baffert might regret putting American Pharaoh & Dortmund in the same race?

I do.

Unless both of Baffert's horses have the same owner(s), why wouldn't he run both horses without any regret ?...

I think he owes it to both owners, regardless of who he thinks the better horse may be....

He can suggest to the jocks not to wage war between themselves, still in that regard, ultimately, the Jock has the responsibility to the owners as well...And that is to go for the WIN !, and ride based on how the horse feels and responds on that day ....

It "is" The Derby after all.... If your the best, go for it !... If you have to battle your stablemate to be the best, so be it... Strategy can only take you so far, especially in the TC races....The best horses make their own way on the road to becoming champions, imo....

[burnsy]

Dortmund doesn't need the lead. He has rated multiple times by now.

Of course he doesn't. But he will be close. He rates fast and Baffert always has one that's up front. People that think AP cruises faster than Dortmund are probably going to be proved wrong is all I'm saying. Dortmund has all the numbers that say "go" right from the start....that does not mean he can not rate....he does and its fast. He's pretty much the fastest horse in this race on paper. The amount of pressure he withstands is the question. Plus, I disagree that this race never melts down like someone else said.....two years ago it was the only race Orb could win. Why? It fell right into his lap, that's why. They came right back to him.

[Grits]

He could have also meant NO RUGRATS

At least the poster is a blues fan. It doesn't get better than Dr.John. ;)

[letswastemoney]

Of course he doesn't. But he will be close. He rates fast and Baffert always has one that's up front. People that think AP cruises faster than Dortmund are probably going to be proved wrong is all I'm saying. Dortmund has all the numbers that say "go" right from the start....that does not mean he can not rate....he does and its fast. He's pretty much the fastest horse in this race on paper. The amount of pressure he withstands is the question. Plus, I disagree that this race never melts down like someone else said.....two years ago it was the only race Orb could win. Why? It fell right into his lap, that's why. They came right back to him.
Dortmund's style his last two starts was affected by the draw. If he's going to the lead, they certainly aren't training him in the mornings this way if I'm reading the reports right.

[Bill Cullen]

Hey, we have about the same same ticket! GL

GL to you too!