Give Your Thoughts on Post Position Draw

[RoyalHeroine]

The first four gotta go: 888, Carpe, Materiality, Tencend, to be joined by Dortmund from the 8 post then Firing Line & Stanford from the 10 & 11 post.

So we've got 7 vying for the first flight.

AP got a sweetheart draw. He'll just follow Mr. Z and be in the 2nd flight going into the clubhouse turn the way I see it.

No excuses for AP in my mind. Just has to be good enough.

[horses4courses]

The first four gotta go: 888, Carpe, Materiality, Tencend, to be joined by Dortmund from the 8 post then Firing Line & Stanford from the 10 & 11 post.

So we've got 7 vying for the first flight.

AP got a sweetheart draw. He'll just follow Mr. Z and be in the 2nd flight going into the clubhouse turn the way I see it.

No excuses for AP in my mind. Just has to be good enough.

The :1: hole is jinxed.
Will the curse be broken some day?
Probably.

A horse with a good break, and a clean trip,
can win from anywhere.

[Spiderman]

Materiality of the 1-4 posts, will need to step on the gas early. The other three may get 'bayerned' with Carpe Diem taking hold for a rail position and follow the 'borail' if it opens.

What will Dortmund do? Go early or be satisfied with a stalking position. Likely that he will be stalking, 4-6 lengths back,outside for entire trip.

American Pharoah will gun from the start. I predict a :46.8 half mile.
Stanford will also run and gun, but try to reserve off AP.
Firing Line follows Dortmund to the point of approaching stretch turn.

Who needs charts, you read it here first.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Going to send: :2::3::4: :8: :11: :17::18:

Good spot for closers: :5::14::16::20: (surrounded by speed)

:19: might be a bit wide but it's better than being trapped inside

[horses4courses]

Trainer quotes following the draw:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/20150429%20Kentucky%20Derby%20Post%20Position%20Dr aw%20Quotes.pdf

[razorback5]

Not a bad post at all for AP. Has enough room to get in behind the front runners and sit chilly maybe third or fourth going into the first turn. From there he can relax until the 3/4 pole and then pounce and get home clear. I just hope his odds don't go lower then 5/2 but I'll take whatever it is.

[boys at tosconova]

since when is post 18 a sweetheart and not bad post at all?

[minethatbird08]

since when is post 18 a sweetheart and not bad post at all?

Outside isn't bad at all IMO. Look at IHA in the Derby; use your speed and look inside for that garden spot and park your horse there.

[RXB]

since when is post 18 a sweetheart and not bad post at all?

Um, maybe since 9 of the past 25 winners started from posts 15-20?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Outside of the :1:, Post Position is given way too much creedence in the Derby.

A speed horse could be in the middle of the track, but in a bad spot because he is also surrounded by speed.

Post position is important, but not necessarily which number you draw, but the horses that are around you.

[boys at tosconova]

obv post 18 is not bad at all compared to 19/20 and 1/2.and maybe one more

that's it.....that doesn't mean horses can't overcome it..but lets get serious.

[RoyalHeroine]

The :1: hole is jinxed.
Will the curse be broken some day?
Probably.

A horse with a good break, and a clean trip,
can win from anywhere.

Not necessarily so.

Ferdinand & Shoe won in 86 from pp#1.

From 2013 So add another win for PP#5 with Cali Chrome from last year.


KENTUCKY DERBY WINNING POST POSITIONS Post Wins 1 12 2 9 3 8 4 10 5 12 6 6 7 7 8 10 9 4 10 10 11 3 12 3 13 4 14 2 15 3 16 3 17 0 18 1 19 1 20 3
Only one win from PP# 18 (AP) !!!! :eek:

[luisbe]

Not necessarily so.

Ferdinand & Shoe won in 86 from pp#1.

From 2013 So add another win for PP#5 with Cali Chrome from last year.


KENTUCKY DERBY WINNING POST POSITIONS Post Wins 1 12 2 9 3 8 4 10 5 12 6 6 7 7 8 10 9 4 10 10 11 3 12 3 13 4 14 2 15 3 16 3 17 0 18 1 19 1 20 3
Only one win from PP# 18 (AP) !!!! :eek:
The odds of all runners on hole 18?

[f2tornado]

I was starting to warm up to AP but not from that hole. Now he's gotta gun it or fall back and face traffic which he's never done before. Having Mr. Z next to you never comforting either.. Frosted was my bet before the draw and remains so. Not excited about the post but at least he should get an extremely clean break with deep closer and gate gap on inside and modest grinder on the outside. Upstart probably tossed from my exotics now. He had hard enough time going mildly wide in Florida. Will reevaluate after sleeping on it.

[jettroofer]

Um, maybe since 9 of the past 25 winners started from posts 15-20?
That means 16 of the past 25 didn't. Lol

[razorback5]

Wrong, he doesn't have to gun it. In fact it gives Victor time to get out and settle 3rd or 4 th. The first turn is a good distance from the starting gate but he will have enough time to settle into a comfortable stalking position.

[f2tornado]

There is a lot of speed in the middle of track. If AP doesn't gun it he could be forced well wide in the first turn. I remember Point Given having to gun to settle in around 4th or 5th and was still wide. Then was no match in the stretch.

[razorback5]

Please quantify "a lot of speed" in middle of track. There won't be 10 horses wanting to go to the front. Every derby people say the pace will be hot and more times then not their wrong. I'll guess we will see Saturday. Victor knows what to do and how to get him in a good position. He's done it before.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

since when is post 18 a sweetheart and not bad post at all?

I was thinking the same thing. Historically, the posts that were favored were 5-8 and 13-16. At least that is what was mentioned on the draw program today on the NBC sports channel.

[razorback5]

You have the auxiliary gate which starts at PP 16. It gives you some space between the 15 horse so you should be able to get a clean break and start to head towards the rail. AP being In The 18 hole should be able to go out clean and start his descent towards the rail with little problem or adding distance. The long distance between the gate and the first turn makes it more manageable to clear and settle. I like the PP but sure 16 would be ideal but 18 is not bad at all, especially with a horse with speed.

[RXB]

Every derby people say the pace will be hot and more times then not their wrong.

Average Ky Derby half-mile: 46.5
Average BC Classic half-mile: 47.4 (when raced at Churchill Downs)

[RoyalHeroine]

Average Ky Derby half-mile: 46.5
Average BC Classic half-mile: 47.4 (when raced at Churchill Downs)

WHOA!! :eek:

[razorback5]

what does each length equal in time? Say a front runner runs 46.5, what would be the time credited to a horse 2 lengths behind that pace?

[RXB]

A difference of 46.5 vs. 47.4 would be worth close to six lengths.

[razorback5]

Thanks! There's usually one horse in the Derby that gets out and sets some fast fractions but most intelligent jocks will sit back and rate off that. I fully expect Victor to be off the pace with AP and make his move around the 3/4 pole. These are the best three year olds in the country that run in the derby, so some fast fractions will obviously be set in some of these races.

[RXB]

Usually more than one horse that is running fast early. The typical lead at 4f is about only about 1 - 1.5 lengths.

And if the best 3YO's in the country are running that fast early, why aren't the best older horses in the country running that fast early or even a little faster in the BC Classic? It's because the leader in the Derby is frequently going at a suicidal clip.

[razorback5]

Right and it's usually a horse that has no chance of winning. Don't know why they exactly do it but I can guess that the horse only knows to go to the front. OTOH the Belmont is a longer race then the Derby but yet front runners do well in that race. Palace Malice comes to mind, set crazy fractions in the Derby and faded but won the Belmont.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Average Ky Derby half-mile: 46.5
Average BC Classic half-mile: 47.4 (when raced at Churchill Downs)

In time that should change since the point system pretty much eliminated bonafide sprinters who have owners with bonafide Derby Fever.

[RXB]

In time that should change since the point system pretty much eliminated bonafide sprinters who have owners with bonafide Derby Fever.

The average half-mile should decline a little thanks to getting rid of the likes of Trinniberg. But maybe not as much as some might believe. The points system was in place two years ago and the half-mile was 45.33.

[castaway01]

I was thinking the same thing. Historically, the posts that were favored were 5-8 and 13-16. At least that is what was mentioned on the draw program today on the NBC sports channel.

The outside posts have outperformed the inside posts for the past 25 years. I'd much rather be in the 18 than the 1, 2, or 3.

[SecretAgentMan]

The average half-mile should decline a little thanks to getting rid of the likes of Trinniberg. But maybe not as much as some might believe. The points system was in place two years ago and the half-mile was 45.33.



Yeah, I don't know why people think the times will be slower now that we don't have sprinters in there. I could be wrong, but I think this years pace will be faster than in 2014. I read that Firing Line will sit a bit further back, I don't believe that.

I think he will go where Dortmund is, once Dort moved, so will FL.......AP should go wide on the 1st turn.

Would I be surprised if Danzig Moon won? No......I definitely think a closer wins this year.

[RoyalHeroine]

Yeah, I don't know why people think the times will be slower now that we don't have sprinters in there. I could be wrong, but I think this years pace will be faster than in 2014. I read that Firing Line will sit a bit further back, I don't believe that.

I think he will go where Dortmund is, once Dort moved, so will FL.......AP should go wide on the 1st turn.

Would I be surprised if Danzig Moon won? No......I definitely think a closer wins this year.

Depends.

Did anybody else notice there's only one two turn race on the entire card until the Derby?

And that's a AOC $62k NW2 mile and a sixteenth carded as the 1st race of the day.

Gonna have to determine if there's any path bias throughout the card, and definitely chart the come home times in all the dirt races to see how the stretch is playing.

They ain't gonna make things easy on us, that's for sure.

[depalma113]

The average half-mile should decline a little thanks to getting rid of the likes of Trinniberg. But maybe not as much as some might believe. The points system was in place two years ago and the half-mile was 45.33.

Palice Malice ran off with blinkers on.

[RXB]

Palice Malice ran off with blinkers on.

Well, horses do run off occasionally. And, Verrazano and Vyjack hit the half in about 45.7 in that race according to Trakus.

[BlinkersOn]

Baffert is going to pull Stanford tomorrow morning, and Fragmento will get in. I wasn't interested in either of them, but just thought I'd mention it.

I still like Dortmund the best.