Aqueduct just rolled over to Belmont.

[Kash$]

After first 2 races i thought i was watching Aqueduct..
Scratches,small fields,this will get better i hope.

[titans1127]

My dad and I are going tomorrow. Only 8 races carded and a lot of short fields. It should be better soon but I have a feeling they are only going to be able to card fuller fields on the weekend or once turf racing starts to pick up.

[onefast99]

My dad and I are going tomorrow. Only 8 races carded and a lot of short fields. It should be better soon but I have a feeling they are only going to be able to card fuller fields on the weekend or once turf racing starts to pick up.
There have been a lot of medication rule changes in NY you may see short fields for quite sometime to come.

[gheuks]

I think gulfstream is hurting nyra big time. Most of the big outfits still have horses in south florida

[andtheyreoff]

I think gulfstream is hurting nyra big time. Most of the big outfits still have horses in south florida

Yeah, but Calder and Hialeah ran in those dates since the beginning of time, and NYRA still did just fine.

They better start stepping it up.

[Prytanis]

Is the 14 day rule still in effect?

[cj]

Is the 14 day rule still in effect?

no

[dilanesp]

It's not any better out in here in California. The last time one of the first two races on a weekday card at Santa Anita drew more than six horses is a distant memory, and there's been a fair number of four and five horse fields too.

[Tall One]

It's not any better out in here in California. The last time one of the first two races on a weekday card at Santa Anita drew more than six horses is a distant memory, and there's been a fair number of four and five horse fields too.


Keeneland too. Toward the end of the meet especially, 5-6 horse fields in the early races were sorta the norm. Even the baby races had compact fields.

[therussmeister]

Yeah, but Calder and Hialeah ran in those dates since the beginning of time, and NYRA still did just fine.

They better start stepping it up.
I think Gulfstream is offering better purses than Calder did.

[thespaah]

I think gulfstream is hurting nyra big time. Most of the big outfits still have horses in south florida
Until that oppressive South Florida heat and humidity kicks in....

[therussmeister]

Keeneland too. Toward the end of the meet especially, 5-6 horse fields in the early races were sorta the norm. Even the baby races had compact fields.
I think it might be the start of a trend for trainers to hold off on racing 2yo this early in the year.

[Robert Goren]

Too many tracks running, not enough horses. It only going get worse in the next few months as more northern tracks open for their season.

[Stillriledup]

Belmont Pick 5 pays very well considering the short fields and heavy favorites that won.

[castaway01]

The foal crop is just too small to support the number of tracks running. It's gone from 35,000 in 2006 to just over 20,000 last year. The available stock has been cut nearly in half in less than a decade. Even the most creative condition book can't fill races with horses that don't exist.

[grimm7]

The foal crop is just too small to support the number of tracks running. It's gone from 35,000 in 2006 to just over 20,000 last year. The available stock has been cut nearly in half in less than a decade. Even the most creative condition book can't fill races with horses that don't exist.
Agree! Not enough horses available to fill cards especially dirt races. I believe this will be a problem all meet filling races. Monmouth and Delaware will be opening soon. Big weekend days may have some horses. Hoping it doesn't carry to Saratoga although shippers and some Kentucky horses will help?

[OTM Al]

Agree! Not enough horses available to fill cards especially dirt races. I believe this will be a problem all meet filling races. Monmouth and Delaware will be opening soon. Big weekend days may have some horses. Hoping it doesn't carry to Saratoga although shippers and some Kentucky horses will help?

Can't see Saratoga being immune. Despite my poking fun at Keeneland and it's worshipful followers, the fact that they had trouble with some fields combined with the fact that they can run much lower claiming races than NY tells me that there will be some days at Saratoga badly impacted by the shortage.

[castaway01]

Can't see Saratoga being immune. Despite my poking fun at Keeneland and it's worshipful followers, the fact that they had trouble with some fields combined with the fact that they can run much lower claiming races than NY tells me that there will be some days at Saratoga badly impacted by the shortage.

I think the main tactic will be to run as many turf races as possible, since those races still mostly fill, and pray there's not a ton of rain. Like you said though, it's definitely at the point where virtually every track will be affected.

[ronsmac]

Can't see Saratoga being immune. Despite my poking fun at Keeneland and it's worshipful followers, the fact that they had trouble with some fields combined with the fact that they can run much lower claiming races than NY tells me that there will be some days at Saratoga badly impacted by the shortage.Considering Saratoga averaged just under 8 horses per race and barely 7 on dirt in 2014, I'd expect 2015 to be similar or worse.

[Tall One]

Especially if they continue with the 6 day race schedule.

[lamboguy]

help is on its way for New York racing! there are plenty of mares in foal that have dropped in New York State. there are some real nice ones bred as well.

there are also plenty more mares in Florida than in the past 5 years.

things will get better

[bello]

Today 8 races
Race 1 5 horses
race 2 4 horses
race 4 5 horses

with most of the jockeys living under the same roof. You want to take your chances racing or betting there ....enjoy.

[castaway01]

help is on its way for New York racing! there are plenty of mares in foal that have dropped in New York State. there are some real nice ones bred as well.

there are also plenty more mares in Florida than in the past 5 years.

things will get better

The Jockey Club stats on new foals certainly don't show that. Can you tell us what "plenty more" means?

[LottaKash]

help is on its way for New York racing! there are plenty of mares in foal that have dropped in New York State. there are some real nice ones bred as well.

there are also plenty more mares in Florida than in the past 5 years.

things will get better

All we need now is some new owners to buy those foals....

I don't think that is going to happen tho....As this, the lack of new owners, as well as the economy, is a very big part of the "Big Contraction" that is happening to horseracing...All over the place...

I have been saying this for a very long time....There are too many tracks open simultaneously, and too few horses to fill all of those slots...And, the tracks seem unwilling to face that reality...All over the place..

And we the patrons, as players, as a result get it right up the behind, with short fields full of drugged up horses...

[Cholly]

In today's 3rd race (8.5F) for statebred non-winners of one-other-than, NYRA juiced the purse an extra $10,000 to $75K, but still could only get five to run. But on Saturday the same division (SN1X) has a 6 1/2 furlong race with the regular purse of $62K, and fifteen are entered.

It's an extra quarter mile, but wouldn't you think for the extra dough and a very short field a few of those running Saturday would have tried to stretchout today instead?

I get it about the foal crops, horse shortage, etc.; but still think something else is going on behind the scenes here. For the size of the purses NYRA is offering, there should be more horses running.

[Kash$]

The average field size for Belmont today was 5.9.

[westny]

The average cost to keep a horse in NY is 40k/yr. excluding any serious vet bills.

NYRA has to have lucrative purses to attract horses that can "pay their way". But I agree...where are the horses?

With a 62. 5k purses the winner gets 37.5k minus 10% to trainer and jockey.
The horse makes 30k. If the horse wins another race he likely covers his 40k cost for the year.

Maybe the competition is too tough in NY vis a vis the 40k annual costs and the need to win a few races to come out ahead for the year.

I also agree there are just too many tracks racing. Contrary to this notion that "horse racing is losing business all I see is more track running year round. Agree that the quality of racing at Saratoga has been diluted by running 6 days a week with 10-12 races. I thought last year at Saratoga was AQU in January.

Belmont Spring has had trouble for the past several years especially toward the end of the meet when trainers wait for Saratoga to race their steeds.

The Belmont Fall Stakes Meet has declined precipitiously because the trend for the past 10 yers has been to "wait for the October BC races while competition from Keeneland's Fall meet "poaches many big NY barns who run there.

[Kash$]

Belmont at this current state in unbettable first 3 races 4/5 horse fields cant recall it being this bad .Pim has bigger fields is it the beginning of the 3 day racing week?

[Secondbest]

Full field of 6 in race 4. With an even money shot.

[Stillriledup]

Belmont at this current state in unbettable first 3 races 4/5 horse fields cant recall it being this bad .Pim has bigger fields is it the beginning of the 3 day racing week?

If sports bettors can bet "2 horse races" what's wrong with betting a 5 or 6 horse field? I like short fields because there are less horses who can beat me. I dont mind 4.40 either, because 2k to win is a 2,400 profit. ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Good one SRU

[Tom]

Full field of 6 in race 4. With an even money shot.
Calvary Charge! :eek:

[bello]

Cannot knock today's card. Belmont is back, Some short fields, but some very good racing, unlike the plethora of cheap nw2 cl that have dominated. I wish I was there,

[Tall One]

Agreed, bello. Not a bad Saturday card at all.

[Tom]

Other than your feature race the third on the card.
Guess all that matters is the pic 6 anymore.

[bello]

I will say the card is ravaged by the lack of front runners being challenged. Really discouraging to see YR raceway style line-ups in every race.

[NTamm1215]

Handle was up 30% today year over year. One day doesn't stop the bleeding of the last few months but it was a good card.

[Stillriledup]

Good one SRU

I may frame this, you never know how many years will go by before i say something smart again. :D

[ronsmac]

Now that Monmouth has opened and with Delaware opening Saturday , that may make things even worse for Belmont. We'll have to wait and see.

[Robert Goren]

Handle was up 30% today year over year. One day doesn't stop the bleeding of the last few months but it was a good card. It is amazing how little we come to expect from today's racing that someone say that was a good card. There was a time, when that card would have been the worst card ran that week from a bettor's point of view. It is just plain sad.

[PaceAdvantage]

I may frame this, you never know how many years will go by before i say something smart again. :DI was being sarcastic

[onefast99]

If sports bettors can bet "2 horse races" what's wrong with betting a 5 or 6 horse field? I like short fields because there are less horses who can beat me. I dont mind 4.40 either, because 2k to win is a 2,400 profit. ;)
Well said....:lol:

[ronsmac]

If sports bettors can bet "2 horse races" what's wrong with betting a 5 or 6 horse field? I like short fields because there are less horses who can beat me. I dont mind 4.40 either, because 2k to win is a 2,400 profit. ;)Hopefully the take will be lowered to 4.5% the next time there's a 2 horse race.

[Stillriledup]

Hopefully the take will be lowered to 4.5% the next time there's a 2 horse race.

It should be.

[dilanesp]

Hopefully the take will be lowered to 4.5% the next time there's a 2 horse race.

I know this is offered in jest, but in fact, poker rooms discount rakes in shorthanded games. And sports betting takes a higher takeout on "field bets" (like which team will win the World Series, or the Derby future book) than it does on head-to-head matchups.

So it actually wouldn't be a terrible idea for horseracing to tie takeout to field size. It would make short fields more bettable; in contrast, horseplayers probably wouldn't mind paying full freight when a bettable 14 horse field is presented.

[ReplayRandall]

So it actually wouldn't be a terrible idea for horseracing to tie takeout to field size. It would make short fields more bettable; in contrast, horseplayers probably wouldn't mind paying full freight when a bettable 14 horse field is presented.
I agree with tying takeout to field size. I propose a 1.75% per horse vig, with a 17.5% cap for a field of 10 or more. This would make a field of 8 at 14%, thus making a win-win situation for everyone involved, IMO.....

[Stillriledup]

I know this is offered in jest, but in fact, poker rooms discount rakes in shorthanded games. And sports betting takes a higher takeout on "field bets" (like which team will win the World Series, or the Derby future book) than it does on head-to-head matchups.

So it actually wouldn't be a terrible idea for horseracing to tie takeout to field size. It would make short fields more bettable; in contrast, horseplayers probably wouldn't mind paying full freight when a bettable 14 horse field is presented.

Also, to add to this idea, they need to tie short fields to how much money horsemen get from purses and also tie purses to the fields, not pay out full purse in a turf race that was originally slated to have 12 runners scratched down to a field of 4 in the slop.

Owners need to be rewarded for running in big fields.

[Robert Goren]

I agree with tying takeout to field size. I propose a 1.75% per horse vig, with a 17.5% cap for a field of 10 or more. This would make a field of 8 at 14%, thus making a win-win situation for everyone involved, IMO.....I guarantee that the horsemen will hate this idea. but the way to go about it is tie the purse money to the number of starters. Let take a 20k with a purse of $20k. Instead make the purse $3k for each starter.
5 starters $15k
6 starters $18k
10 starters $30K
12 starters $36k
or they could have a base purse plus extra money for each starter
base purse $10k plus $1.5k for each starter
5 starters $17.5k
6 starters $18k
10 starters $25k
12 starters $28k
It might mean fewer races ran, but the races they ran would have larger fields. I suppose they actually add money to the purses retroactively if the takeout from the handle for the day exceeded expectations. I think we need to get back to tying purses to handles. Reward the horsemen for putting on more bettable races. Usually money speaks, I would like to see if it would at the track.

[jk3521]

See... Everything is okay at Belmont now.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inp&country=USA&track=BEL&date=2015-05-14

[Tall One]

The evil empire an hour west of me only has 8 races carded today; and even with that, you have one 6 horse, and one 7 horse race. Rest are 8 entries and up.

[upthecreek]

Whats most number of horses they can put into the starting gate @ Belmont? 14?

[Stillriledup]

Why are there 12 races at Belmont, that seems more than usual?

[WoxFan]

Why are there 12 races at Belmont, that seems more than usual?

Preakness day.

[Stillriledup]

Preakness day.

ok, hopefully for Belmont a few of those People who spent 5 hours handicapping Pimlico will accidentally toss a few bucks on a Belmont race, wouldn't want to see them card 12 races for no reason!

[castaway01]

I guarantee that the horsemen will hate this idea. but the way to go about it is tie the purse money to the number of starters. Let take a 20k with a purse of $20k. Instead make the purse $3k for each starter.
5 starters $15k
6 starters $18k
10 starters $30K
12 starters $36k
or they could have a base purse plus extra money for each starter
base purse $10k plus $1.5k for each starter
5 starters $17.5k
6 starters $18k
10 starters $25k
12 starters $28k
It might mean fewer races ran, but the races they ran would have larger fields. I suppose they actually add money to the purses retroactively if the takeout from the handle for the day exceeded expectations. I think we need to get back to tying purses to handles. Reward the horsemen for putting on more bettable races. Usually money speaks, I would like to see if it would at the track.

This idea makes absolutely zero sense because you punish those who choose to run, not those who don't. For example, if only five horses are entered so you only give them a tiny purse, you punish the owners and trainers who DO enter because of the actions of those who DON'T enter. I have no idea why it would mean fewer races run, but it would definitely lead to those trainers pulling their horses from your track and going someone that doesn't take money away from them as a penalty for, what, choosing to participate?

[Stillriledup]

This idea makes absolutely zero sense because you punish those who choose to run, not those who don't. For example, if only five horses are entered so you only give them a tiny purse, you punish the owners and trainers who DO enter because of the actions of those who DON'T enter. I have no idea why it would mean fewer races run, but it would definitely lead to those trainers pulling their horses from your track and going someone that doesn't take money away from them as a penalty for, what, choosing to participate?

You make some good points and you do punish an owner who wants to run but would rather run in a bigger field to get the bigger purse. Not all owners would choose to run in a 5 horse field when they could get a much bigger purse in an 11 horse field (under RGs theory).

Of course, at the end the day, this is a bettors game not a horsemen's game :D so the first goal is to create large betting fields for the players, if you don't like RGs theory, do you have an idea on how tracks can divvy up the purse money in a more efficient way? Or do you think its perfectly fine the way it is.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why are there 12 races at Belmont, that seems more than usual?You are one weird chick.

[ultracapper]

I'm not sure if it was stats for 2013 or 2014, I heard this awhile ago, but there were 337 live thoroughbred foals in the state of Washington in that particular year, whichever one it was. 337!!! That's NOTHING!! How does Emerald Downs expect to survive with that number of foals? Longacres ran that many horses in a week in the early to mid 80s. I was shocked by that number. But that's what the loss of a track (Longacres) did to the breeding industry in this state.

Close tracks, close farms. I think it would go hand in hand.

[ronsmac]

ok, hopefully for Belmont a few of those People who spent 5 hours handicapping Pimlico will accidentally toss a few bucks on a Belmont race, wouldn't want to see them card 12 races for no reason!Just last yr Martin Panza said it's unrealistic to run 11 and 12 race cards anymore.

[Kash$]

Total of 15 horses first 3 races plenty of scratches..4 day week?

[PaceAdvantage]

Total of 15 horses first 3 races plenty of scratches..4 day week?I'm not sure I understand the point...they'll do the best they can until racing ceases to exist everywhere...then you and everyone else will be content and can stop wasting time posting stuff that everyone can see with their own two eyes...like how many horses are in each race.

[v j stauffer]

Andy, before you rip riders for tactics you might want to consider actually watching the races. Memories of Peter took up sharply leaving the chute.

[ronsmac]

Total of 15 horses first 3 races plenty of scratches..4 day week?Watchmaker Just wrote an article on drf.com talking about Saturday's card . It's not pretty.

[JustRalph]

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/15339

Not being able to play in Texas is sometimes frustrating. But really, I have to ask myself, what am I missing........really.......

[bello]

Biggest problem in NY racing now is the lack of jocks challenging each other early.

At least in Texas and some of the smaller tracks, jockeys will ride the way their horses are inclined to want to go.. You cannot handicap a speed dual at the NYRA tacks anymore since it simply rarely occurs. 90% of the races have a Lone Leader while every other jock strangles their horse. I have seen nothing as pervasive as this phenomenon in my 40 years of betting horses. It is turning people off NY betting.

Some of the best false favorites in racing are speed horses with great figs that will be run down early. IN NYRA tracks, fuggedaboutit.....it aint gonna happen.

[v j stauffer]

Biggest problem in NY racing now is the lack of jocks challenging each other early.

At least in Texas and some of the smaller tracks, jockeys will ride the way their horses are inclined to want to go.. You cannot handicap a speed dual at the NYRA tacks anymore since it simply rarely occurs. 90% of the races have a Lone Leader while every other jock strangles their horse. I have seen nothing as pervasive as this phenomenon in my 40 years of betting horses. It is turning people off NY betting.

Some of the best false favorites in racing are speed horses with great figs that will be run down early. IN NYRA tracks, fuggedaboutit.....it aint gonna happen.

If your analysis is correct. I have no reason to believe it isn't. Why not adjust your play and use this information for your benefit?

[cj]

If your analysis is correct. I have no reason to believe it isn't. Why not adjust your play and use this information for your benefit?

It is a often a crapshoot figuring out which horse is going to be on the lead, IMO, with the way the jocks ride there currently.

[bello]

If your analysis is correct. I have no reason to believe it isn't. Why not adjust your play and use this information for your benefit?
Good question, But I am not smart enough to know which of the speeds will take back, so I just lay off.

I love finding lone speed types at all tracks. I also love finding the closer in a race chock full of speed even more. Better prices than Lone Speed types. I can find and bet a Lone Speed type at NYRA and so can everyone else . I can find overlaid closers at tracks like CharlesTown and Finger Lakes where jocks will whack it out early as the horses form dictates they will.. But if there is more than one speed type at a NYRA track, I have no clue which jock goes and which strangles. So I lay off.

[bello]

It is a often a crapshoot figuring out which horse is going to be on the lead, IMO, with the way the jocks ride there currently.

CJ, I love when Mike Beer reviews the timeform early speed analysys with Andy.

My guess though is it works even better at tracks where jocks ride their horses like their past history dictates. It can be a great way to anticipate and script out a race. But it must be frustrating of late at NYRA. If I am wrong let me know.

[Tom]

Lots of stupid rides at NYRA.
I can't believe owners would some of these pinheads back on their horses.

[cj]

CJ, I love when Mike Beer reviews the timeform early speed analysys with Andy.

My guess though is it works even better at tracks where jocks ride their horses like their past history dictates. It can be a great way to anticipate and script out a race. But it must be frustrating of late at NYRA. If I am wrong let me know.

I think it happens more often than it should. I don't think it is every race, or even a majority, but it is pretty clear the jockey colony in New York is not an aggressive group.

I could be totally wrong on this, but I think purses have become so big that connections are fine with just earning a check in many cases rather than going for the win and winding up off the board if involved in a speed duel.

[v j stauffer]

I think it happens more often than it should. I don't think it is every race, or even a majority, but it is pretty clear the jockey colony in New York is not an aggressive group.

I could be totally wrong on this, but I think purses have become so big that connections are fine with just earning a check in many cases rather than going for the win and winding up off the board if involved in a speed duel.

Welcome to the unpredictable world of handicapping. So many factors out of our control. But don't forget everybody is in that same boat. What we CAN control is digging deeper, looking longer, going back and re-thinking even when we feel it's well thought through. Approaching from new and different angles. Basically outworking our opponents. This game is no different than any other aspect of life. The more you put into it. The more you stay focused. The bigger edge you'll have when others wane. Burning the midnight oil is not a metaphor. It's a commitment.

[v j stauffer]

I think it happens more often than it should. I don't think it is every race, or even a majority, but it is pretty clear the jockey colony in New York is not an aggressive group.

I could be totally wrong on this, but I think purses have become so big that connections are fine with just earning a check in many cases rather than going for the win and winding up off the board if involved in a speed duel.

As an owner, trainer or jockey. There is only ONE to make money. Win races. Well actually for a trainer there are two others. F your owners on horse sales and gamble on your horses. But that's another post for another time.

Back to the topic. The East has notoriously seen much more passive riding styles. Just the way it is. Hasn't changed in decades. Julie Krone told me when she came to CA the first time she couldn't believe how everybody was sending like crazy. But she adapted and continued to be great.

I certainly don't think larger purses are prompting the jocks to change tactics or philosophy.

[cj]

Welcome to the unpredictable world of handicapping. So many factors out of our control. But don't forget everybody is in that same boat. What we CAN control is digging deeper, looking longer, going back and re-thinking even when we feel it's well thought through. Approaching from new and different angles. Basically outworking our opponents. This game is no different than any other aspect of life. The more you put into it. The more you stay focused. The bigger edge you'll have when others wane. Burning the midnight oil is not a metaphor. It's a commitment.

LOL...yeah, I'm a newbie.

I was merely comparing the New York circuit to others. I am familiar, at least somewhat, with all circuits from the best racing to the cheapest racing. I see more rides in New York that I doubt even the sharpest handicapper could predict beforehand than anywhere else, that is all I'm saying. It is still my favorite circuit to play and I certainly do my homework.

[cj]

As an owner, trainer or jockey. There is only ONE to make money. Win races. Well actually for a trainer there are two others. F your owners on horse sales and gamble on your horses. But that's another post for another time.

Back to the topic. The East has notoriously seen much more passive riding styles. Just the way it is. Hasn't changed in decades. Julie Krone told me when she came to CA the first time she couldn't believe how everybody was sending like crazy. But she adapted and continued to be great.

I certainly don't think larger purses are prompting the jocks to change tactics or philosophy.

Yes, less aggressive overall, mostly due to different surfaces requiring different running styles. But that isn't what I'm seeing the last few years. I would guess you are not following New York racing nearly as close as I do or you know what I'm talking about, and I'm far from the only one.

[aaron]

As an owner, trainer or jockey. There is only ONE to make money. Win races. Well actually for a trainer there are two others. F your owners on horse sales and gamble on your horses. But that's another post for another time.

Back to the topic. The East has notoriously seen much more passive riding styles. Just the way it is. Hasn't changed in decades. Julie Krone told me when she came to CA the first time she couldn't believe how everybody was sending like crazy. But she adapted and continued to be great.

I certainly don't think larger purses are prompting the jocks to change tactics or philosophy.
I think it is more than just being passive. I believe over all,this is just not a very talented group of jockeys. They have reputations,but to me,they are not as good as their reputations. The last jockey who lived up to his billing on a consistent basis was Ramon Dominguez.

[v j stauffer]

Yes, less aggressive overall, mostly due to different surfaces requiring different running styles. But that isn't what I'm seeing the last few years. I would guess you are not following New York racing nearly as close as I do or you know what I'm talking about, and I'm far from the only one.

No chance I'm as in tuned to the circuit as you. I'm sure your opinion is acute and refined.

I just think lamenting the un-quantifiable is wasted time.

To me rides. Bad or good. Stupid or smart. Eventually equal out.

My focus whether Belmont or anywhere else would still be exploiting the inevitable mistakes the public will make.

[cj]

No chance I'm as in tuned to the circuit as you. I'm sure your opinion is acute and refined.

I just think lamenting the un-quantifiable is wasted time.

To me rides. Bad or good. Stupid or smart. Eventually equal out.

My focus whether Belmont or anywhere else would still be exploiting the inevitable mistakes the public will make.

I personally just use bad rides like any other trip note, particularly with a different rider in the future. You are right, it probably evens out over time. There are plenty times I've benefited from bad rides on others, or received good rides on my bets.

[v j stauffer]

I think it is more than just being passive. I believe over all,this is just not a very talented group of jockeys. They have reputations,but to me,they are not as good as their reputations. The last jockey who lived up to his billing on a consistent basis was Ramon Dominguez.

To me. I look for one thing and only one thing from a rider. If you're on the best horse. Don't F*** it up. On a major racing circuit any one of the top 10 - 12 guys are good enough to be leading rider if given the same opportunities. In any year of handicapping I can count on the fingers of two hands how many times the riders brilliance actually made the difference in winning and losing.

That's why I think betting the major circuits is smarter. At the lower level tracks the incompetence is way too volatile to risk any serious money.

[Tom]

I'll take the small tracks any day - the riders are hungry and need the money.

[bello]

I'll take the small tracks any day - the riders are hungry and need the money.

Not only the riders, but the owners and trainers can ill afford to "waste one".

Also the difference in jock talent actually makes for more value as the subtle talent margins amog jocks can be huge.

Gotta go, Need the 3 or 5 race 8 at FL to stay alive in the p5

[bello]

Not only the riders, but the owners and trainers can ill afford to "waste one".

Also the difference in jock talent actually makes for more value as the subtle talent margins amog jocks can be huge.

Gotta go, Need the 3 or 5 race 8 at FL to stay alive in the p5

Well waddy know,,,,5-3 beat the field by 10 and the ex paid 44.
Yes, the
smaller tracks are far more predictable.....and yes, you need to study haed,

[acorn54]

If sports bettors can bet "2 horse races" what's wrong with betting a 5 or 6 horse field? I like short fields because there are less horses who can beat me. I dont mind 4.40 either, because 2k to win is a 2,400 profit. ;)
yes but with dime breakage you really have a pretty big take out rate, compared to someone who is collecting on a 20+ payout with dime breakage.

[affirmedny]

Yes, less aggressive overall, mostly due to different surfaces requiring different running styles. But that isn't what I'm seeing the last few years. I would guess you are not following New York racing nearly as close as I do or you know what I'm talking about, and I'm far from the only one.

It seems to me that half mile splits in NY for routes are WAY slower than they were 10-15 years ago. I wonder if anybody has a database that goes back that far and could compare them. I think it would be very interesting.

[Stillriledup]

Good question, But I am not smart enough to know which of the speeds will take back, so I just lay off.

I love finding lone speed types at all tracks. I also love finding the closer in a race chock full of speed even more. Better prices than Lone Speed types. I can find and bet a Lone Speed type at NYRA and so can everyone else . I can find overlaid closers at tracks like CharlesTown and Finger Lakes where jocks will whack it out early as the horses form dictates they will.. But if there is more than one speed type at a NYRA track, I have no clue which jock goes and which strangles. So I lay off.


read post 5. :D

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=107691

[cj]

Race 4 today was Strangling 101. It looked like everyone just conceded the race to the 3 to 5 favorite and fought it out for the remainder of the big New York bred allowance purse.

[cj]

Race 3 today was just awful. You'd have thought it was a two mile turf racing watching the riders, but it was 6f on the dirt.

[Stillriledup]

Race 4 today was Strangling 101. It looked like everyone just conceded the race to the 3 to 5 favorite and fought it out for the remainder of the big New York bred allowance purse.

This happens a LOT in NY (at the major tracks). Does it happen every single race? I can't even say it doesn't, seems like there is a rare instance where guys will be really battling tooth and nail. Other tracks you see battles all the time. Here? Its very rare.

[Tom]

Far too many bad rides at NYRA to bother with it.
Lots of tack open now - no one has to suffer stupid jockeys playing on the track.

[pandy]

The Belmont meet was a bit weak in the spring but after Keeneland closed and the top trainers brought their horses back from Gulfstream and Kentucky, the meet has been solid. This week surprised me because it's getaway week for Saratoga and I remember many years when even the last two weeks of the Belmont meeting weren't that good. Not this year. This week the fields were full and the turf races in particular were very good.

[sammy the sage]

some people are TOTAL hypocrites...bashing in THIS thread... http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=95078&highlight=arlington

yet NOW totally WHINING about the SAME thing here... :lol: :D :faint: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

ps...this riding/NOT riding ALL out.... happens at ALL tracks...by ALL jocks from time to time...of course some give a much better effort a much higher % of the time...

now which jock and what certain circumstances...well that's THE elephant in THE room....