Derby Pace

[PICSIX]

I still see Dortmund shaking loose

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2015/04/28/kentucky-derby-pace-scenario-a-pressing-question.aspx

From the article: My guess for the top four runners through a half-mile in the Derby: 1. American Pharoah, 2. Stanford, 3. Materiality, and 4. Firing Line.

[BlueChip@DRF]

No one will let anyone get loose. I see a good honest pace but I don't see anyone blazing below :47. The only turn of foot I have seen was from Far Right and Mubtaahij. The other closers seem to be grinders who would probably win at 2 miles.

[burnsy]

I still see Dortmund shaking loose

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2015/04/28/kentucky-derby-pace-scenario-a-pressing-question.aspx

From the article: My guess for the top four runners through a half-mile in the Derby: 1. American Pharoah, 2. Stanford, 3. Materiality, and 4. Firing Line.

Other than unforeseen happenings, its the biggest factor of this race(every year). The best horses get sucked in some years and wilt in the stretch. If Dortmund does shake loose in moderate fractions, its probably a done deal. But Pletcher has a couple of front runners in there and I sort of doubt it will happen this year. Remember when they put blinkers on Palace Malice? With Stanford and Materiality in there one has to think one will be sent hard when the adrenaline gets going like it usually does in this race. People every year seem to get tricked into thinking the best horse will win theory, 12 out of the last 24 favorites have failed to hit the board. The pace and running style of horses determine the outcome of this race more than a usual race. If the pace is moderate Dortmund has one of the best chances of winning. But many years there are those hell bent on the lead at any cost. The sprinters with no shot don't get in anymore but the juices still flow and "gold (derby) fever" still gets the best of them sometimes. Trying to guess what the pace might be and then hopefully being right is probably the most important aspect to cashing. I'm thinking (hoping) with all these close to the front types in there the pace may get heated, that opens the door to all kinds of possibilities. If a horse like Dortmund gets his own way, the rest are running for place. If I know that, Pletcher and all the jockeys do too. This is the highest of stakes in this game.....most likely someone will not let that happen even if it costs them something in the process.

[BlueChip@DRF]

All thing being equal, I think these will be in the first third of the field for at least the first half of the race:

Lead: Dortmund
Close Up (>= 1 length from leader): American Pharoah, Materiality
Stalking (>= 6 lengths from leader): Stanford, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Mubtaahij

[depalma113]

I still see Dortmund shaking loose

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2015/04/28/kentucky-derby-pace-scenario-a-pressing-question.aspx

From the article: My guess for the top four runners through a half-mile in the Derby: 1. American Pharoah, 2. Stanford, 3. Materiality, and 4. Firing Line.

Where's Ocho Ocho Ocho? He will be on the lead at the half mile pole.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Where's Ocho Ocho Ocho? He will be on the lead at the half mile pole.

Yep.

I see Ocho Ocho Ocho as possibly the key horse in this race. I don't think he has any choice but to try and get out and get the lead because he isn't passing anybody when the real racing begins.

Would love to see him in a post with closers surrounding him and no big horses near him like Dortmund or Tencendur that could bang him around at the start.

[boys at tosconova]

i think there are other horses that will be trying for position others haven't listed. and i don't think the closers have much shot this year because all the more talented figure horses have tactical speed and will be placed within striking distance.....dunno where mutabi will be,..but it will likely be to his detriment.

[SecretAgentMan]

All thing being equal, I think these will be in the first third of the field for at least the first half of the race:

Lead: Dortmund
Close Up (>= 1 length from leader): American Pharoah, Materiality
Stalking (>= 6 lengths from leader): Stanford, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Mubtaahij


No way will the stalkers be 6 or more lengths behind Pharaoh, Dortmund & Materiality, the most they should be behind is 3 to 4 lengths.

[BlueChip@DRF]

No way will the stalkers be 6 or more lengths behind Pharaoh, Dortmund & Materiality, the most they should be behind is 3 to 4 lengths.

Ooooo... I think I used the wrong arrow!

[Huddy Goodjob]

Yep.

I see Ocho Ocho Ocho as possibly the key horse in this race. I don't think he has any choice but to try and get out and get the lead because he isn't passing anybody when the real racing begins.

Would love to see him in a post with closers surrounding him and no big horses near him like Dortmund or Tencendur that could bang him around at the start.

Trainer reported saying sees Ocho taking an off the pace approach.

But I'm with you...he should gun it for the lead and hope he has the conditioning to gut it out.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Trainer reported saying sees Ocho taking an off the pace approach.

But I'm with you...he should gun it for the lead and hope he has the conditioning to gut it out.


Watch the trainer regret his move when they go :48+. :p

[SecretAgentMan]

Trainer reported saying sees Ocho taking an off the pace approach.

But I'm with you...he should gun it for the lead and hope he has the conditioning to gut it out.



He's nuts if he thinks Ocho can won off the pace, the stalkers will eat him alive. Only shot he has to even getin the money, let aone win is by trying to wire the field, & we all know he won't get the lead vs these other speedsters unless he tries to pull a Palice Malice.

[Rex Phinney]

There is always going to be one horse that you expect to be on the pace but for whatever reason never makes it.

Also there is always one who for whatever reason ends up right in the mix from the get go and has never raced there before. This is the Derby, expect at least one of the 40 or 50-1 shots to gun it from the word go.

[michiken]

I thought Palace Malice would sit in that Golden spot only to be burned up by 4 furlongs... the derby pace is not always predictable.

Let's see how Pletcer tries to set it up for his 10 entries this year. I hope he continues to lose.

[RXB]

Some stats from the past 25 runnings of the Ky Derby.

Average field size: 18.1

Average position of winner after 4f: 9.1
Average position of 2nd-fin after 4f: 8.7
Average position of 3rd-fin after 4f: 9.9

Forward early position typically offers no advantage whatsoever, except in a rare year like the War Emblem-Proud Citizen race where the pace was moderate. The Derby pace is usually fast and contested. Unlike most dirt racing where frontrunners have a substantial advantage, Derby winners (and exotic fillers) come from ANYWHERE EARLY.

[Some_One]

No one will let anyone get loose. I see a good honest pace but I don't see anyone blazing below :47. The only turn of foot I have seen was from Far Right and Mubtaahij. The other closers seem to be grinders who would probably win at 2 miles.

If you're setting the line at 47, I'll take the limit on the under, I would probably bet strong on the under 46.