50 Handicapping Rules to Live by in 2015

[arw629]

Handicapping Rules to Live by in 2015

1. DRF is a waste of money

2. Jacobson 1st off the claim

3. Rudy 1st off the claim

4. The rail is dead at Parx 350 days a year

5. Deshawn Parker is good

6. Gennadi Dorochenko hits bombs when you least expect it

7. It’s possible to win from off the pace on the Santa Anita main track

8. Andy Serling can’t resist route to sprinters

9. You should take his advice

10. Play Penn National with caution

11. Kitten’s Joy horses run well on grass

12. You can make money in small fields

13. Cheap speed is cheap

14. First time geldings win 10% of time

15. Christophe Clement has great 1st time Lasix numbers

16. I like Mark and Nancy but usually feel better if they don’t like the horse I like

17. Jorge Navarro 1st off the claim

18. Don’t bet horses claimed off Jorge Navarro

19. Bill Mott firsters don’t win

20. Track biases are very real

21. Leandro Goncalves is having a tough 2015

22. Despite what you’ve heard, all weather isn’t grass

23. Betting against bridge jumpers is losing proposition long term

24. The Mountaineer whale isn’t that good

25. Jason Beem’s Southbound is a good read after a bad day

26. Stillriledup is smarter than you

27. Breeders Cup horses usually bounce in their next start

28. Company lines are helpful

29. Florent Geroux will be the one of the nation’s best sooner than later

30. One turn closers usually don’t close very well going two turns

31. If you bet Bogar’s picks you’re down money

32. Feodor runs well in Midwest marathon races

33. Weather reports are a must

34. 4% jockeys and trainers are 4% for a reason

35. Bob Baffert has great turn back numbers

36. Hitting the “All” button shouldn’t be a regular activity

37. Handicapping tournaments make you smarter

38. Workout patterns and reports tell you more than workout times

39. Deep closers usually lose

40. The Aqueduct main is not the inner

41. Horse for course duh

42. Slop carries speed…right?

43. Throw out the “wise guy” picks.

44. Bet against the people who look the trashiest at the track. They look like that for a reason.

45. Studying the tote board can be helpful

46. Passing on races will help your ROI

47. Post position matters

48. Flavien Prat has a very bright future

49. Identify which races are preps

50. Tip the person at the window cheap skate

[ultracapper]

51. Don't use the first floor men's rooms at Parx. You'll freeze your dick off.

[SandyW]

52. Horse racing, the only game where you can win a lumber yard with a toothpick.

[Greyfox]

12. You can make money in small fields

I can't.

[raybo]

LOL - somewhere on the list:

#. Opinions are like "anal orifices", everybody has one. :sleeping:

[Cratos]

Handicapping Rules to Live by in 2015

1. DRF is a waste of money

2. Jacobson 1st off the claim

3. Rudy 1st off the claim

4. The rail is dead at Parx 350 days a year

5. Deshawn Parker is good

6. Gennadi Dorochenko hits bombs when you least expect it

7. It’s possible to win from off the pace on the Santa Anita main track

8. Andy Serling can’t resist route to sprinters

9. You should take his advice

10. Play Penn National with caution

11. Kitten’s Joy horses run well on grass

12. You can make money in small fields

13. Cheap speed is cheap

14. First time geldings win 10% of time

15. Christophe Clement has great 1st time Lasix numbers

16. I like Mark and Nancy but usually feel better if they don’t like the horse I like

17. Jorge Navarro 1st off the claim

18. Don’t bet horses claimed off Jorge Navarro

19. Bill Mott firsters don’t win

20. Track biases are very real

21. Leandro Goncalves is having a tough 2015

22. Despite what you’ve heard, all weather isn’t grass

23. Betting against bridge jumpers is losing proposition long term

24. The Mountaineer whale isn’t that good

25. Jason Beem’s Southbound is a good read after a bad day

26. Stillriledup is smarter than you

27. Breeders Cup horses usually bounce in their next start

28. Company lines are helpful

29. Florent Geroux will be the one of the nation’s best sooner than later

30. One turn closers usually don’t close very well going two turns

31. If you bet Bogar’s picks you’re down money

32. Feodor runs well in Midwest marathon races

33. Weather reports are a must

34. 4% jockeys and trainers are 4% for a reason

35. Bob Baffert has great turn back numbers

36. Hitting the “All” button shouldn’t be a regular activity

37. Handicapping tournaments make you smarter

38. Workout patterns and reports tell you more than workout times

39. Deep closers usually lose

40. The Aqueduct main is not the inner

41. Horse for course duh

42. Slop carries speed…right?

43. Throw out the “wise guy” picks.

44. Bet against the people who look the trashiest at the track. They look like that for a reason.

45. Studying the tote board can be helpful

46. Passing on races will help your ROI

47. Post position matters

48. Flavien Prat has a very bright future

49. Identify which races are preps

50. Tip the person at the window cheap skate
53. RULES ARE MADE TO BE BROKEN

[raybo]

53. RULES ARE MADE TO BE BROKEN

Yup, there are exceptions to almost every rule. But then, if we're talking about the long term, good rules are - good.

[thaskalos]

54.) Avoid Evangeline Downs...or your rent will be in doubt.

[ChickenOrTheEgg]

This is a really good list. :ThmbUp:

I especially like #'s 16, 45, 46, 47, and 49. I could listen to Mark and Nancy all night but if they end up on the same horse I get a little worried.

I'll add one more #55: The obvious overlay/arbitrage opportunity you think exists at 0 MTP will disappear by post time. Everyone else sees it as an opportunity the same way you do!

[Stillriledup]

Responding to Arw's original post.

1) I agree, overpriced, but what are you gonna do?

2) Jake off the claim, too obvious.

4) Agree

6) I only expect this guy to win when he's got 'no shot'

7) agree

8) Im a short to long guy myself

12) :ThmbUp:

23) Disagree

26) SR WHO?

30) agree

34) I would say the 4 pct jock is much worse in real life than the 4 pct trainer. If you give a 4 pct trainer a bunch of good horses, their pct goes up, if you let a 4 pct jock ride good horses, they still can't get there.

37) i wouldn't say tournaments make you smarter, but i think they make you more well rounded and get you thinking in different ways, they exercise different areas of the brain, its a completely different way to handicap.

39) agree that deep closers usually lose, but as a bettor, you can still win money betting on them to be underneath in exotics.

42) think not all slop carries speed, sometimes its hard to wire, just depends on the situation.

50) I don't bet with tellers, so that saves me money.

[Dahoss2002]

6. Gennadi Dorochenko hits bombs when you least expect it


Aint that the truth

[Robert Fischer]

good stuff

[burnsy]

Handicapping Rules to Live by in 2015
12. You can make money in small fields
13. Cheap speed is cheap
20. Track biases are very real
28. Company lines are helpful
30. One turn closers usually don’t close very well going two turns
33. Weather reports are a must
34. 4% jockeys and trainers are 4% for a reason
36. Hitting the “All” button shouldn’t be a regular active
37. Handicapping tournaments make you smarter
38. Workout patterns and reports tell you more than workout times
39. Deep closers usually lose
41. Horse for course
46. Passing on races will help your ROI
47. Post position matters
49. Identify which races are preps



Rules to live by...............all kidding aside.

[illinoisbred]

55) Time(fractional and final) Matters.. and not just for those sitting in jail.

[thaskalos]

56.) Dave Powers and Clint Tracy are the same person.

[bugboy]

ya know a little girl once answered that question, here is her response.

"It had to be the chicken, because, God wouldn't lay an egg!"

[cutchemist42]

Deshawn is good, could not believe the horses he was getting in at the Hou meet. Did the success translate to Mountaineer again?

Loved the list BTW, some of thiem produced a great smile at how true they are.

[Ocala Mike]

36.1 But when you don't hit it and that 80/1 shot is in the number which you thought you had surrounded, you will feel like an idiot.

[Fingal]

57. Be sure to listen to radio touts & if they pick your horse look elsewhere. Automatic KOD.

[no breathalyzer]

58. do not bet solis

59. bet all Dylan Davis first time off in NEW York

60. Fist time starters drawing the rail isn't as bad as you been told.

[Robert Goren]

61. If a closer bet a front runner last time out, chances are that it will beat the same front runner again even if the front runner is the lone early speed unless there is a huge early speed bias today.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Cardinal Rule: don't bet on horses

[Robert Goren]

61. If a closer beat a front runner last time out, chances are that it will beat the same front runner again even if the front runner is the lone early speed unless there is a huge early speed bias today.Correction

[duncan04]

62. TLG blocks 90% of people on Twitter :D

[MJC922]

In a pari-mutuel game understanding when a rule should be broken is the only path to profits.

[PaceAdvantage]

62. TLG blocks 90% of people on Twitter :DWith good reason no doubt.

[plainolebill]

6. Gennadi Dorochenko hits bombs when you least expect it


Aint that the truth

6a. Bombs are bombs because no one expects them.

[plainolebill]

58. do not bet solis

59. bet all Dylan Davis first time off in NEW York

60. Fist time starters drawing the rail isn't as bad as you been told.

60a. Sprinters from the rail are generally a bad bet at Santa Anita

[plainolebill]

58. do not bet solis

59. bet all Dylan Davis first time off in NEW York

60. Fist time starters drawing the rail isn't as bad as you been told.

58a. When I don't bet Solis he will beat me - but not too often.

60a. Sprinters from the rail are generally a bad bet at Santa Anita

[plainolebill]

63. When a super trainer has run a horse at the bottom twice without winning it's just another horse.

[Stillriledup]

With good reason no doubt.

Yes, no doubt. In fact, i'd say he's a trooper to give permission to the lucky 10% who can "get thru".

[thespaah]

51. Don't use the first floor men's rooms at Parx. You'll freeze your dick off.
:lol:

[thespaah]

55) Time(fractional and final) Matters.. and not just for those sitting in jail.
I disagree. Time is relative to the condition of the track....Two fast tracks on the same racing surface can be vastly different.
Fort example.....A 40K claimer airs by 6 lengths in 1:09...
In this one's next start, it's entered against NW 1 X.....Runs the same race and can't get near the winner while Trackus times this horse in 1:14...With the winner's time at 1:11
Or better yet....
Fast track....
Horse wins at 8.5 F in 1:42.35
Next start against similar...Wins again at 8.5F on a fast track with the same number of days since the the last rainfall, this time the winning time is 1:44 and some sheckles.
This horse did not suddenly get WORSE by 8 lengths.....The track dictates the time.
The PACE of the race is what matters......IMO...

[arw629]

29. Florent Geroux will be the one of the nation’s best sooner than later.

He's leading the country in graded stakes wins with 22...Castellano in 2nd with 18 ....Geroux isn't getting the mounts in NY but it is doing fine with what they're giving him

[mikesal57]

#4...Parx dead rail

Unfortunately when you play its dead...but stats say otherwise..

This is both dirt spr and rt

sorry

query start: 8/17/2016 9:56:37 AM
query end: 8/17/2016 9:56:39 AM
elapsed time: 2 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK = 'PHA'
AND INTSURFACE <= 3
AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2016#


Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 9628.10 9124.90 9074.90
Bet -11436.00 -11436.00 -11436.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -1807.90 -2311.10 -2361.10

Wins 807 1609 2342
Plays 5718 5718 5718
PCT .1411 .2814 .4096

ROI 0.8419 0.7979 0.7935
Avg Mut 11.93 5.67 3.87


By: Rail Position

Rail Pos P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 30.30 1580.00 1.0192 131 790 .1658 1.1749
2 -309.20 1580.00 0.8043 112 790 .1418 1.0045
3 -273.40 1580.00 0.8270 119 790 .1506 1.0673
4 -526.20 1574.00 0.6657 111 787 .1410 0.9994
5 -255.20 1530.00 0.8332 114 765 .1490 1.0559
6 -199.80 1400.00 0.8573 102 700 .1457 1.0325
7 211.00 1034.00 1.2041 67 517 .1296 0.9182
8 -224.40 642.00 0.6505 28 321 .0872 0.6181
9 -145.20 312.00 0.5346 16 156 .1026 0.7267
10 -125.40 146.00 0.1411 4 73 .0548 0.3882
11 13.00 44.00 1.2955 2 22 .0909 0.6441
12 -3.40 14.00 0.7571 1 7 .1429 1.0122
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000

[arw629]

#4...Parx dead rail

Unfortunately when you play its dead...but stats say otherwise..

This is both dirt spr and rt

sorry

query start: 8/17/2016 9:56:37 AM
query end: 8/17/2016 9:56:39 AM
elapsed time: 2 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE TRACK = 'PHA'
AND INTSURFACE <= 3
AND [DATE] >= #01-01-2016#


Data Summary Win Place Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals 9628.10 9124.90 9074.90
Bet -11436.00 -11436.00 -11436.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L -1807.90 -2311.10 -2361.10

Wins 807 1609 2342
Plays 5718 5718 5718
PCT .1411 .2814 .4096

ROI 0.8419 0.7979 0.7935
Avg Mut 11.93 5.67 3.87


By: Rail Position

Rail Pos P/L Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 30.30 1580.00 1.0192 131 790 .1658 1.1749
2 -309.20 1580.00 0.8043 112 790 .1418 1.0045
3 -273.40 1580.00 0.8270 119 790 .1506 1.0673
4 -526.20 1574.00 0.6657 111 787 .1410 0.9994
5 -255.20 1530.00 0.8332 114 765 .1490 1.0559
6 -199.80 1400.00 0.8573 102 700 .1457 1.0325
7 211.00 1034.00 1.2041 67 517 .1296 0.9182
8 -224.40 642.00 0.6505 28 321 .0872 0.6181
9 -145.20 312.00 0.5346 16 156 .1026 0.7267
10 -125.40 146.00 0.1411 4 73 .0548 0.3882
11 13.00 44.00 1.2955 2 22 .0909 0.6441
12 -3.40 14.00 0.7571 1 7 .1429 1.0122
13 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
14 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
17 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000




Just bc a horse breaks from the 1 hole doesn't mean he or she is on the rail the entire race ...but ur probably right ...i edited my initial response out of anger but why did u feel the need to respond in troll like fashion?

[mikesal57]

Just bc a horse breaks from the 1 hole doesn't mean he or she is on the rail the entire race ...but ur probably right ...i edited my initial response out of anger but why did u feel the need to respond in troll like fashion?

I play Parx too and I know that the rail and inside are better than the outside...
I was just responding to your post and had to check it again :)

mike

[arw629]

I play Parx too and I know that the rail and inside are better than the outside...
I was just responding to your post and had to check it again :)

mike

I don't play Parx anymore and don't know :confused:
Adam

[green80]

[QUOTE=thespaah]I disagree. Time is relative to the condition of the track....Two fast tracks on the same racing surface can be vastly different.
Fort example.....A 40K claimer airs by 6 lengths in 1:09...
In this one's next start, it's entered against NW 1 X.....Runs the same race and can't get near the winner while Trackus times this horse in 1:14...With the winner's time at 1:11
Or better yet....
Fast track....
Horse wins at 8.5 F in 1:42.35
Next start against similar...Wins again at 8.5F on a fast track with the same number of days since the the last rainfall, this time the winning time is 1:44 and some sheckles.
This horse did not suddenly get WORSE by 8 lengths.....The track dictates the time.
The PACE of the race is what matters......IMO...[/QUOT

I agree, if you could pick winners by time, we would all be winners.