Make your best case for a particular longshot to WIN

[OCF]

For purposes of discussion consider the following to be longshots:

International Star
Bolo
Danzig Moon
El Kabeir
Far Right
Itsaknockout
Stanford
Tencendur
War Story
Mr. Z
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Keen Ice

I've heard at least a little bit of win support for the other 8 horses in the field (as of now) but little if any win support for the above 12.

I'm not looking for an ironclad case, just some ideas. Let's all agree for the sake of discussion that it's easy (and unnecessary) to shoot holes in any case for these horses, that's why they're longshots.

Remember it's a horse race so anything can and does happen.

I'll start it off with Far Right, who actually gained a little on American Pharoah in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby. It really looks like he's asking for more distance, if anything the mile and a quarter may not be enough. If the pace is hot (not that big an if) he might be the one with the most left in the tank. Mike Smith did it on Giacomo, maybe he can do it again on Far Right.

[minethatbird08]

Ocho Ocho Ocho is a well bred horse with great form as a 2yo. Despite recent setbacks he did improve last time out and should improve again in the Derby. Furthermore, and most importantly, at just the right time in history, as it will be referred to sometime around 6:40pm on May 2nd 2015, he will conjure the spirit of his late great 3rd Dam Personal Ensign to propel him to victory.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

On pedigree alone, Danzig Moon has to be taken seriously.

He put some things together in the Blue Grass and was closing in on Carpe Diem. The longer the race, the better it is for Danzig Moon and 10F could well be his premium distance for win possibilities.

Also have to like his :58 flat workout at Churchill, so he has obviously taken to the track.

With a very possible pace meltdown, DM could be in that midpack of horses from about 10-15 looking to pounce when the real racing begins. His biggest problem is that he may get shuffled too far back.

[OCF]

Ocho Ocho Ocho is a well bred horse with great form as a 2yo. Despite recent setbacks he did improve last time out and should improve again in the Derby. Furthermore, and most importantly, at just the right time in history, as it will be referred to sometime around 6:40pm on May 2nd 2015, he will conjure the spirit of his late great 3rd Dam Personal Ensign to propel him to victory.

Absolutely, just the kind of idea I was looking for. He's shown that he's capable of a big speed figure, which is easy to overlook given his past two races. Maybe 3rd off the layoff will do the trick. Looks like the price would be HUGE.

[OCF]

On pedigree alone, Danzig Moon has to be taken seriously.

He put some things together in the Blue Grass and was closing in on Carpe Diem. The longer the race, the better it is for Danzig Moon and 10F could well be his premium distance for win possibilities.

Also have to like his :58 flat workout at Churchill, so he has obviously taken to the track.

With a very possible pace meltdown, DM could be in that midpack of horses from about 10-15 looking to pounce when the real racing begins. His biggest problem is that he may get shuffled too far back.

I can't disagree with any of that! There will probably be traffic issues for the closers, but the rail might be there (Mine That Bird) or the far outside (Giacomo).

[Bennie]

International Star - so far from my early elimination factors he is one of few who has passed with no knocks. I still need to find his number of I-Chefs, his last 3 beyers, his late pace and his last PF (pace fig).

[SecretAgentMan]

Danzig Moon closed really well on Carpe Diem

Tencendur looked like he had a shot to win off that moderate pace he closed into, but got beat. Will going longer help?

Far Right has very slow times in his wins.


I think Danzig Moon is the best long shot, but still looking.

[razorback5]

Ocho Ocho Ocho is a well bred horse with great form as a 2yo. Despite recent setbacks he did improve last time out and should improve again in the Derby. Furthermore, and most importantly, at just the right time in history, as it will be referred to sometime around 6:40pm on May 2nd 2015, he will conjure the spirit of his late great 3rd Dam Personal Ensign to propel him to victory.
I really like Ocho Ocho Ocho to get in the exotics.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Mr. Z

You see what Lukas did with Take Charge Brandi leading up to the BC?

[ILovetheInner]

I think a lot of the wiseguys are on Danzig Moon and while he will be a price....it's the Derby....not as long as some might hope for. I totally agree with the Ocho thought. He was on the radar as a two year old, and got absolutely nothing out of his return....draw a line through it. They had to get a running race into him and with that draw all they could do was send him. Messed around with Carpe Diem before fading in the stretch, stuck on his inside lead most of the way. He will move forward off that, is a stump of a horse and probably pretty maneuverable, and a Street Sense from a very juicy Phipps family. At inevitably very long odds, what's not to like?

As far as Lukas, no, I never toss him out of KYD exotics. Mr Z. has a competitive race against Dortmund/Firing Line and has won at Churchill. He will be on my tickets.

[depalma113]

All of the favorites could crash in the first turn. Other than that, there is no chance.

[f2tornado]

International Star - Ascending speed figures, Raise A Native Sire line, closing speed amongst the best, Louisiana Derby horses have done well in Derby exotics (but win column is very light).

[menifee]

I'll try to make a case for Bolo.

1. Turf/poly horses do pretty well at the Derby (Paddy O'Prado/Dullahan,AK)
2. His race in the San Felipe was pretty good. He collared Dortmund on the turn, he just ended up being a short horse as it was his first race of the layoff. Still ran a pretty strong fig.
3. His race in the Santa Anita Derby was more disappointing. I just think Dortmund bottomed out the field. He did not want to be that close to that type of pace.
4. I think the distance is certainly within his pedigree.
5. 3rd off a layoff.
6. Price will be right.

[BlueChip@DRF]

International Star - so far from my early elimination factors he is one of few who has passed with no knocks. I still need to find his number of I-Chefs, his last 3 beyers, his late pace and his last PF (pace fig).

I-Chefs = 7
DP = 28
JAN BSF (PF) = 90 (-16) Lecomte-G3 @ FG [~8.5F]
FEB BSF (PF) = 93 (-48) Risen Star-G2 @ FG [8.5F]
MAR BSF (PF) = 98 (-51) Louisiana Derby-G2 @ FG [9.0F]

Buckpasser X = NO
Broke Maiden in 1st two starts = YES
Finish in last race = 1st
Storm Cat blood = NO

Notes: Never lost ground from stretch to finish in all DIRT starts.

[amishrakefight]

Where can I find the I-Chef's for each horse?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Where can I find the I-Chef's for each horse?

At www.pedigreequery.com

You would have to do a manual count yourself.

[Parson]

Star LP in LAD 107
in RS 97
in LeCom 96

also has qualifying time in final 3/8 of LAD according to other posts here

[burnsy]

International Star - Ascending speed figures, Raise A Native Sire line, closing speed amongst the best, Louisiana Derby horses have done well in Derby exotics (but win column is very light).

Agree, there is something to be said about winning races (preps) and then being overlooked. I like that kind of horse. He may not get up, but consistently makes his run which could be a factor late.

[boys at tosconova]

i don;t believe any of the horses on this list can win.

the best case for a couple of them would be to hit the board. i can't ever remember in all my years where there has been such a precipitous drop in talent in the 2nd half of the field.

[nads1420]

i don;t believe any of the horses on this list can win.

the best case for a couple of them would be to hit the board. i can't ever remember in all my years where there has been such a precipitous drop in talent in the 2nd half of the field.


who is your 1st tier and who is your second? the way i see it is as follows in no particular order:

Top tier
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
Upstart
Frosted
Mubtaahij

2nd Tier
Firing Line
International Star
Materiality


3rd Tier
ElKabeir
Far Right
Danzig Moon
War Story
Bolo
Keen Ice



4th Tier
Itsaknockout
Terncendur
Stanford
WR Z
Ocho Ocho Ocho

[ArlJim78]

I agree, none of these can win under any scenario. However I am using a number of them in gimmicks.

I don't get the thinking about International Star being a win candidate. The FG races were very weak, his numbers are just not there, he got ideal rail trips, and in the derby was literally ALL OUT to get by Stanford, a Pletcher third stringer who was dusted by Materiality. Yes I've got him in some tickets underneath but don't see any way for him to win.

[boys at tosconova]

who is your 1st tier and who is your second? the way i see it is as follows in no particular order:

Top tier
American Pharoah
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
Upstart
Frosted
Mubtaahij

2nd Tier
Firing Line
International Star
Materiality


3rd Tier
ElKabeir
Far Right
Danzig Moon
War Story
Bolo
Keen Ice



4th Tier
Itsaknockout
Terncendur
Stanford
WR Z
Ocho Ocho Ocho


i refuse to make 4 tiers of talent in this race.. but how can materiality be in tier 2 under both upstart and frosted, and speaking of frosted...why would you put tendencur in tier 4.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I agree, none of these can win under any scenario. However I am using a number of them in gimmicks.

I don't get the thinking about International Star being a win candidate. The FG races were very weak, his numbers are just not there, he got ideal rail trips, and in the derby was literally ALL OUT to get by Stanford, a Pletcher third stringer who was dusted by Materiality. Yes I've got him in some tickets underneath but don't see any way for him to win.

I'll agree Sanford isn't in the first or 2nd tier of the contenders, and he's probably going to be a bit short for getting 10F. Having said all that International Star still closed down on a very slow pace in the LA Derby. +48 secs to the 1/2 and still came up and inched away from that horse.

The FG preps were weaker then most, but lets not forget the Oaklawn Preps, and the Sunland Derby preps had comparable fields. Sunland was probably a lot worse.

International Star has moved outside of horses before, and only came up the rail his last two trips. His versatility in this field is 2nd to none. He won the Grey Cup outside of horses, and was briefly on the rail before being switched out in the LeComte. He has 4 Graded Victories over different Surfaces. Big time player I think is deserving of at least one key on top. Price will be right.

[boys at tosconova]

I agree, none of these can win under any scenario. However I am using a number of them in gimmicks.

I don't get the thinking about International Star being a win candidate. The FG races were very weak, his numbers are just not there, he got ideal rail trips, and in the derby was literally ALL OUT to get by Stanford, a Pletcher third stringer who was dusted by Materiality. Yes I've got him in some tickets underneath but don't see any way for him to win.

i like the way intl star runs..but i don't like his comp or how he won and how fast they went. weighing all those factors, he's in deep imo. maybe 2/3rd in the best of scenarios..but i think it's a reach

[codysakic]

I'll make a case for El Kabeir. His last start wasn't that great. He was beaten by the better horse in Frosted. He didn't have the kick I expected to see that day. His efforts in the Gotham, Withers and Jerome all looked good.

Not sure what his odds will be come Saturday. I'm thinking somewhere around 16/1. Anything can happen come Derby Day. It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for this horse to win this race.

He would have to get the perfect trip and then see if he can go into high gear down the stretch.

[OCF]

I'll make a case for El Kabeir. His last start wasn't that great. He was beaten by the better horse in Frosted. He didn't have the kick I expected to see that day. His efforts in the Gotham, Withers and Jerome all looked good.

Not sure what his odds will be come Saturday. I'm thinking somewhere around 16/1. Anything can happen come Derby Day. It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for this horse to win this race.

He would have to get the perfect trip and then see if he can go into high gear down the stretch.

I like El Kabeir a little also. He reminds me of International Star, knows how to win races although the fields he's beaten were not particularly impressive. His numbers are actually a little better than International Star's.

Not sure how well meant he was in the Wood, he didn't need any more Derby qualifying points.

[nads1420]

i refuse to make 4 tiers of talent in this race.. but how can materiality be in tier 2 under both upstart and frosted, and speaking of frosted...why would you put tendencur in tier 4.

the curse of Apollo hurts Materiality in my opinion, if they flip flop trips in the Florida Derby Upstart wins runs a 110 beyer and is probably the 3rd choice.... and tencendur ran the race of his life in the wood and wont repeat

[SecretAgentMan]

I'll make a case for El Kabeir. His last start wasn't that great. He was beaten by the better horse in Frosted. He didn't have the kick I expected to see that day. His efforts in the Gotham, Withers and Jerome all looked good.

Not sure what his odds will be come Saturday. I'm thinking somewhere around 16/1. Anything can happen come Derby Day. It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for this horse to win this race.

He would have to get the perfect trip and then see if he can go into high gear down the stretch.


You're kidding on the 16-1 odds, right? El Kabeir will be over 20-1......you might see 25-1 on him.

[letswastemoney]

You're kidding on the 16-1 odds, right? El Kabeir will be over 20-1......you might see 25-1 on him.Calvin Borel will kill the price of any horse he touches.

I'd guess 16/1. Maybe lower. We might even see 12/1 or so on El Kabeir.

People don't always bet this race based on form. This is one race where jockeys and connections are bet too.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Calvin Borel will kill the price of any horse he touches.

I'd guess 16/1. Maybe lower. We might even see 12/1 or so on El Kabeir.

People don't always bet this race based on form. This is one race where jockeys and connections are bet too.

Good point, which is why I think we see 3-1 or 7/2 on American Pharaoh. Cali Chrome was 5/2 last year with no one else to battle for favoritism. Now we have Dortmund, Mubtahij, Firing Line, Carpe Diem, and others that will take cash. Should still be worth it in the win pool.

[boys at tosconova]

the curse of Apollo hurts Materiality in my opinion, if they flip flop trips in the Florida Derby Upstart wins runs a 110 beyer and is probably the 3rd choice.... and tencendur ran the race of his life in the wood and wont repeat


i don't bet for/against curses or trends

upstart had no real excuse. he was clearly second best in the fl derby. late in the race materiality was starting to pull way as well.

if anything separates these two..it's a small amount..with the edge going to materiality imo.

in no way shape or form can you put materiality behind upstart and feel like it's a good call or decision

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm going to agree with Danzig Moon. Last just looked like he was ready to take a big step forward, and that pedigree has classic distances all over it. Timeform late pace ratings are in the top 4, and the other 3 are all really slow.

Bolo also has a distance pedigree and good speed.

[nads1420]

I'm going to agree with Danzig Moon. Last just looked like he was ready to take a big step forward, and that pedigree has classic distances all over it. Timeform late pace ratings are in the top 4, and the other 3 are all really slow.

Bolo also has a distance pedigree and good speed.


Danzig Moon is getting a little too much love

[BlueChip@DRF]

Danzig Moon is getting a little too much love

You mean Goodfellas love?

[burnsy]

I don't really disagree with people. But I think its a mistake to say never, none or always in this game. That alone gets many people in trouble. In the last 10 years, two derbies have been total melt downs.........by now, people should realize when that happens, ANYTHING can happen. I always try to bet like I'm not going to be baffled or mystified because I sort of know anything can happen. Like the boneheaded statement some make............."I've been handicapping for such and such years and this horse can't lose." Really? You either don't pay attention, keep track, have a bad memory or are not that bright.

The trends and "curses" are bunk. If you like something and think the horse is worthy at the right price .....use it. Those are not individual stats, the horse running this week doesn't even know what you are talking about. If the horse is capable and gets lucky......that crap is meant to be broken and frequently is. Its one horse race, anything can happen in ONE horse race. If I have not learned anything, that's the first thing I had to learn. Because if you never learn how to take a shot and lose............you'll be like Mr. 30 years, which most likely means 29 years of losing....... :bang: "Even a loser, gets lucky sometime"...........if you don't look at horses like this, you can forget the 900 and 400 dollar exactas that come in too.....

[ArlJim78]

I'll agree Sanford isn't in the first or 2nd tier of the contenders, and he's probably going to be a bit short for getting 10F. Having said all that International Star still closed down on a very slow pace in the LA Derby. +48 secs to the 1/2 and still came up and inched away from that horse.

The FG preps were weaker then most, but lets not forget the Oaklawn Preps, and the Sunland Derby preps had comparable fields. Sunland was probably a lot worse.

International Star has moved outside of horses before, and only came up the rail his last two trips. His versatility in this field is 2nd to none. He won the Grey Cup outside of horses, and was briefly on the rail before being switched out in the LeComte. He has 4 Graded Victories over different Surfaces. Big time player I think is deserving of at least one key on top. Price will be right.
The price will be right and for good reason. Other preps were weak yes, but look at how American Pharoah won, he galloped and won by a widening eight lengths under a hand ride. Or Firing Line at Sunland same thing, there was no doubt who the best horse was.

Inched away from Stanford? it took something like 30 strikes of the whip to overcome those last inches. He had little left to give and to me looks unsuitable for 10 furlongs unless its a really fast pace then I give him a slight shot to edge into the super.
He did have fast paces to close into in his prior two races, and as a result beat War Story (on the longshot list) by length or so. That's not going to get the job done on Saturday. He's raced at Churchill before too and was a non factor in a race with a swift pace losing to El Kabier which is another one on the longshot list. Good luck but to me he doesn't figure to be anywhere close.

[maliksealy210]

I will be betting on Ocho Ocho Ocho for a few reasons. Third off the layoff should be an improvement. His connections learned that he can't go wire to wire like they tried in the Blue Grass. If he can set a trip early similar to how he did in the Delta Jackpot, I could see him making one move at the top of the Stretch and hitting the board, or at a minimum in the super.

Of course, until we learn post positions, we can all say anything. Trip handicapping is impossible until we figure out who is where in the gates.

[boys at tosconova]

The price will be right and for good reason. Other preps were weak yes, but look at how American Pharoah won, he galloped and won by a widening eight lengths under a hand ride. Or Firing Line at Sunland same thing, there was no doubt who the best horse was.

Inched away from Stanford? it took something like 30 strikes of the whip to overcome those last inches. He had little left to give and to me looks unsuitable for 10 furlongs unless its a really fast pace then I give him a slight shot to edge into the super.
He did have fast paces to close into in his prior two races, and as a result beat War Story (on the longshot list) by length or so. That's not going to get the job done on Saturday. He's raced at Churchill before too and was a non factor in a race with a swift pace losing to El Kabier which is another one on the longshot list. Good luck but to me he doesn't figure to be anywhere close.

intl star is a confirmed rail hugger running w/ good trips vs slow horses...my crystal ball suggests finishing 3rd would be monumental task

[Bennie]

Bluechip - just got home a little while ago and wanted to say thank you for posting that info about International Star. From the list of horses posted that started this he still has no knocks and "from that list" would be my longshot play. As per usual, many went on saying that he has chance to win but never offered their picks from the "list". I am not saying he will win but from the list he would be my choice. I have missed a few Derbys, as we all have, but have had Chrome, Orb, Super Saver, Giacomo, Big Brown, and a few others so when it comes to Derby Time it owes me nothing. Frosted, Mubtaahij and American will probably be my key horses but I do have an International/ Frosted exacta box in the futures pool so I will route for him as well. 20 horse field, anything can happen and the "best" horse does not always win.

[boys at tosconova]

I will be betting on Ocho Ocho Ocho for a few reasons. Third off the layoff should be an improvement. His connections learned that he can't go wire to wire like they tried in the Blue Grass. If he can set a trip early similar to how he did in the Delta Jackpot, I could see him making one move at the top of the Stretch and hitting the board, or at a minimum in the super.

Of course, until we learn post positions, we can all say anything. Trip handicapping is impossible until we figure out who is where in the gates.

http://s1.totalprosports.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Shaun-Bridgmohan-TV-Intro.jpg

[Tall One]

nm..

[Rex Phinney]

I'm taking Far Right and Danzig Moon.

No way that 3 years in a row the favorite wins, I see a hot pace, a big melt down and someone who can manage traffic winning.

[MutuelClerk]

It seems the favorite won every prep race, some of those races finishing ABC. A twenty horse field, tons of people on top of these horses making them nervous, jockeys nervous. I think it's going to be bombs away. I'm wheeling Firing Line up and down in the exacta. Throwing out the two favorites and also playing a six horse exacta box. Hoping to hit the exacta on both tickets. Good luck and enjoy.

[Golf man]

I'm going with Bolo and Firing Line

Firing Line was 2nd by a head in December to Dortmund at Los Alamitos in a very fast time. He is the only horse to have run back to such a fast time, when he won at Sunland earlier this year. He has pressed fast paces while barely losing ground so if he is not the pace setter I don't think he will sulk behind a run away leader. Odds should be high due to number of races and recent competition.

Bolo is lightly raced, which could be an issue all by itself, but he has shown that he might just be coming up to his best race. If the Derby is the goal, then winning prep races is not 100% necessary. In its last two races Bolo closed ground to the 6f or stretch only to lose ground in the stretch. With a little maturity Bolo might be primed for his best. Last year Oxbow positionally ran 6-5-2-2-6 in the Derby, getting as close as .50 length at the mile mark before losing by 9.75 lengths only to come back and win the Preakness

Both Bolo and Firing Line exhibit this improvement characteristic to some degree. Others like Mr Z, Tencendur and War Story do as well, but appear to be much slower.

Good Luck Saturday!!

[FPhandicapper]

Trainer wants him in the second group right off the pace, which is where he can do some damage like in the delta downs jackpot. I'm usually not one to make excuses for a soft paced front-runner (Bluegrass), but that running style might just not suit him.If you blame the running style and not the distance for his lackluster finish in the last, he can improve and has had the figures in the past to back up a performance that's worthy f the Kentucky Derby. 1 post sucks---they did a gate-work on April 22 to make sure he breaks sharper, which is all you can hope for. Connections, based off of my limited reading and listening, don't sound like the kind of people who were super concerned with making the derby, which may help to explain the Bluegrass. He probably needed that race because the San Felipe was a no-go for him. The trainer likes what he has, and the breeding (Street Sense) says a mile and a quarter. A sharp 5f work, a 6f work from the gate, and a 3f tune-up should have him giving his best. The fact that with the right form this horse belongs w/ the class and speed makes Ocho Ocho Ocho a BUY.

[jettroofer]

Trainer wants him in the second group right off the pace, which is where he can do some damage like in the delta downs jackpot. I'm usually not one to make excuses for a soft paced front-runner (Bluegrass), but that running style might just not suit him.If you blame the running style and not the distance for his lackluster finish in the last, he can improve and has had the figures in the past to back up a performance that's worthy f the Kentucky Derby. 1 post sucks---they did a gate-work on April 22 to make sure he breaks sharper, which is all you can hope for. Connections, based off of my limited reading and listening, don't sound like the kind of people who were super concerned with making the derby, which may help to explain the Bluegrass. He probably needed that race because the San Felipe was a no-go for him. The trainer likes what he has, and the breeding (Street Sense) says a mile and a quarter. A sharp 5f work, a 6f work from the gate, and a 3f tune-up should have him giving his best. The fact that with the right form this horse belongs w/ the class and speed makes Ocho Ocho Ocho a BUY.

This horse is NOT in good form going into this race. He hasn't been in good form since the Delta.

[Some_One]

Trainer wants him in the second group right off the pace, which is where he can do some damage like in the delta downs jackpot. I'm usually not one to make excuses for a soft paced front-runner (Bluegrass), but that running style might just not suit him.If you blame the running style and not the distance for his lackluster finish in the last, he can improve and has had the figures in the past to back up a performance that's worthy f the Kentucky Derby. 1 post sucks---they did a gate-work on April 22 to make sure he breaks sharper, which is all you can hope for. Connections, based off of my limited reading and listening, don't sound like the kind of people who were super concerned with making the derby, which may help to explain the Bluegrass. He probably needed that race because the San Felipe was a no-go for him. The trainer likes what he has, and the breeding (Street Sense) says a mile and a quarter. A sharp 5f work, a 6f work from the gate, and a 3f tune-up should have him giving his best. The fact that with the right form this horse belongs w/ the class and speed makes Ocho Ocho Ocho a BUY.

Every year the Delta Jackpot is a jackrabbit sprint early and whoever collapses the least wins the race, many good horses will be sitting at the back waiting for a collapse.

[BlueChip@DRF]

If things keep going the way they do, Upstart is a bomb.

[Tall One]

It seems the favorite won every prep race, some of those races finishing ABC. A twenty horse field, tons of people on top of these horses making them nervous, jockeys nervous. I think it's going to be bombs away. I'm wheeling Firing Line up and down in the exacta. Throwing out the two favorites and also playing a six horse exacta box. Hoping to hit the exacta on both tickets. Good luck and enjoy.



Great post. ANYTHING can go wrong in this race.

I think a horse like International Star, who runs like he's pissed off at the world, is a live play for in the money, if not winning the whole damn thing. Smart, determined horse who runs the entire race, good 2yo foundation, comes in off 5 weeks rest, and can move forward off those three in Louisiana.

[Viruss]

International Star Race Shape best closer in the field full of E/EP types.

[FPhandicapper]

International Star Race Shape best closer in the field full of E/EP types.

There ain't a true E in the bunch, seems reasonable to picture a 47 1/2 mile, no?

[johnhannibalsmith]

I have to admit that I'm finding it hard to get too far around International Star for too very long. I really don't think that he's fast enough or even good enough, but when I see the others that are better, I see a lot of horses that just really haven't been in much in the way of a fight or trouble or anything but cruise control much the best romps or something along that line. These horses not only get bet but I always seem to find one of the half dozen or so that is up the track after encountering a little adversity for the first time going into or leaving the first turn. I know International Star's best race isn't as good as the others, I just think he may be the one of the only ones that is more likely than not to run that best race. He's been in the trenches. And seems to like to win. I don't love him at all but when I look at what a lot of prices look like they're going to be and roll out some race scenarios - the idea that a whole lot of better horses will regress and give him a fighting chance doesn't seem all that far out there.

[Tall One]

he started those last two in the 9 hole. closed in on :47, and :48 2/5...jock didn't spare the whip in the former for that matter.

Mena needs to be at his best tomorrow. No pressure, right?

[Viruss]

What I think matters is that 8 of the 19 horses in the field have 6 or more speed points. that's a lot of early speed not to think that the pace will be fast and possibly set up for an off pace horse like International Star.

Earl J

[maddog42]

I would like to pick Bolo for my Longshot pick and also Itsaknockout. Bolo was steadied in his race before last and still ran a 100 Bris against a decent pace.

[JustRalph]

I'm taking Far Right and Danzig Moon.

No way that 3 years in a row the favorite wins, I see a hot pace, a big melt down and someone who can manage traffic winning.

If the pace melts..... anything can happen.........that's the only question if you ask me. Will they go too fast.......... if so....as usual it's a free for all.

But I think the difference between the top tier horses and the rest is pretty big. they would have to really go fast for huge numbers.

under 47 will be interesting. Under 46 and 2 fifths..... it's a free for all??

They went 47.37 and 1:11.8 last year....... and I'm not so sure these guys will be as good......but ???who knows.

If I had to pick a closer............ :15: or :12:

[appistappis]

I just spent 3 hours looking at everything I could and I got bolo and int star as the two livest longshots

[Tall One]

I just spent 3 hours looking at everything I could and I got bolo and int star as the two livest longshots



All for naught guys...Star scratched out this morning with a quarter crack in his hoof. Ramsey then scratched all his horses today as well.

[DJofSD]

I'm going with Bolo and Firing Line

Firing Line was 2nd by a head in December to Dortmund at Los Alamitos in a very fast time. He is the only horse to have run back to such a fast time, when he won at Sunland earlier this year. He has pressed fast paces while barely losing ground so if he is not the pace setter I don't think he will sulk behind a run away leader. Odds should be high due to number of races and recent competition.

Bolo is lightly raced, which could be an issue all by itself, but he has shown that he might just be coming up to his best race. If the Derby is the goal, then winning prep races is not 100% necessary. In its last two races Bolo closed ground to the 6f or stretch only to lose ground in the stretch. With a little maturity Bolo might be primed for his best. Last year Oxbow positionally ran 6-5-2-2-6 in the Derby, getting as close as .50 length at the mile mark before losing by 9.75 lengths only to come back and win the Preakness

Both Bolo and Firing Line exhibit this improvement characteristic to some degree. Others like Mr Z, Tencendur and War Story do as well, but appear to be much slower.

Good Luck Saturday!!
Re Bolo: I am thinking the same -- if he can improve a bit more and with some luck, he could be right there. But, he will need to beat Dortmund who appears to be primed to run a race just like Winning Colors did for DWL.

[Maximillion]

I like Bolo as well.It takes a pretty special horse to run a triple digit speed figure in his first start on dirt....beaten less than 2 lengths by what looks like one of the better 3yos we have seen in some time.
Last was by no means a disgrace and he has every right to come forward here again imo.

[cordep17]

He's had 3 races at CD, all good enough to say he likes the surface. Those were at 2. He's closed into some moderate paces to win already this year. OP was playing fast for AP and had an awesome trip. Was never going to win that day. So much speed in this race and so many possible winners who like to be pretty damn close to the lead. I think it sets up for Far Right with a couple other closers now out of the race. I think he left a lot in the tank, wants the distance, and knows the surface well enough. Handled the excitement of the Arkansas just fine. I know what I'm getting with Far Right. How well he does will be decided by the others in the race. Dortmund at 4-1 and Pharaoh at 3-1, I can't see the rest of the field letting the front coast. You can't let those 2 get away from you.

[gm10]

Danzig Moon ...

is improving, and finished (arguably) better than the top rated (by my own calculations) Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass. He came from too far in that race, he'll hopefully be a bit wiser today.

Also like Bolo for superfecta purposes.

[deathandgravity]

:14:
pedigree play with Curlin on top & Awesome Again on the bottom.
Trouble trips the last 3 outs & new jockey.

Might find his way on some of my exotics

[Tom]

Upstart is a good LS.
Frosted, but he is too low in odds to be a LS.
He is my second choice.

[Tom]

At 52-1, I gotta drop a fin on Tencendur for kicks and giggles ( and many, many beers!).

$5 to place should get me a nice DWI.

[iceknight]

:16: War Story - to make up for half sibling Afleet Alex

[Tom]

The upside is, I stay outta jail tonight.