Is there a problem at Parx?

[Elliott Sidewater]

Of the 431 races run so far in 2015, 80 of them had a start call that was bad for one or more horses. 89 horses in all had bad start calls. Now a handful of these were first time starters and those are semi-excusable, as wellas one or two that refused to break, but we're talking 18.5% of the races here. There is no pattern to the odds of the horses that got bad starts. I'm not charging chicanery here, just sheer incompetence. Is it just me, or is this a ridiculously high incidence of bad starts?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Very interesting stat - what's the overall % for other tracks?

[Elliott Sidewater]

I have no idea, but maybe the guys with databases can help out here

[Flysofree]

No idea do I have why, but my figures for the Pennsylvania track both Pen and PRX have always been different from the other circuits which I follow.

[Dave Schwartz]

Elliot,

I wish I had such data.

Might be able to do a search if I had a list of all the comments that pointed to a bad start.


Dave

PS: To anyone that is interested, I have had a couple of very interesting conversations with Mr. Sidewater. He is a rare combination of handicapper in that he not only has some very unique ideas (stuff I never even thought of), and is articulate enough to describe these ideas with out sounding like an oracle looking for an audience.

I strongly suggest that you add him to your list of "must read" posters.

[Maximillion]

I have less confidence playing this track than any other,i dont think its even close.
Ive given it a 2nd/3rd/4th chance now, and it amazes me how often what i think might happen in a race and what unfolds before me are so often completely different.

[tanner12oz]

ive known people who raced at PARX and quit because of "shenanigans"

[Elliott Sidewater]

Tanner: Re quittng at parx - I've thought about it, but decided to play less often and be ultra-selective about the plays I do make. One needs to have their head examined if they bet an odds on favorite starting from the rail there, it just seems to be the kiss of death. Parx is the epitome of what's wrong with year round racing at one track, and with the high takeout, it ranks in the bottom 10 of HANA's track rankings. Oh, did I mention that it was below 40 degrees in the first floor men's room this winter?? And that there was no hot water? Guess not.

[Brogan]

Parx has a casino now, why would they be interested in racing (other than needing it to have a casino)?

[Shemp Howard]

ive known people who raced at PARX and quit because of "shenanigans"

Shenanigans was the dam of Icecapade.

[Exotic1]

Elliot,

I wish I had such data.

Might be able to do a search if I had a list of all the comments that pointed to a bad start.


Dave

PS: To anyone that is interested, I have had a couple of very interesting conversations with Mr. Sidewater. He is a rare combination of handicapper in that he not only has some very unique ideas (stuff I never even thought of), and is articulate enough to describe these ideas with out sounding like an oracle looking for an audience.

I strongly suggest that you add him to your list of "must read" posters.

He's on my list.

Not the best endorsement for ES, though.

[Exotic1]

Of the 431 races run so far in 2015, 80 of them had a start call that was bad for one or more horses. 89 horses in all had bad start calls. Now a handful of these were first time starters and those are semi-excusable, as wellas one or two that refused to break, but we're talking 18.5% of the races here. There is no pattern to the odds of the horses that got bad starts. I'm not charging chicanery here, just sheer incompetence. Is it just me, or is this a ridiculously high incidence of bad starts?

It may have something to do with the chart caller(s) and their particular style. If the same caller is assigned to PRX most of the time, you may have someone who is overly "sensitive" to trouble at the break.

[Dave Schwartz]

Not the best endorsement for ES, though.

Why not?

[Exotic1]

Why not?

If they let me in, they'll let anyone in.

[Shemp Howard]

ive known people who raced at PARX and quit because of "shenanigans"

Shenanigans was the dam of Icecapade, Ruffian, and Buckfinder amongst others.

Would have never set foot on a dump like Keystone/Philadelphia/Parx.

[Elliott Sidewater]

I am certain that the chart caller is the same person it has been for a long time. Your point is well taken. All in all, I think the chart caller is doing a better job than the starter, but it's altogether possible that these two know and do not like each other. There is a running litany of delayed starts noted by the chart caller, included as comments in the official charts such as "post time was delayed 4 minutes due to another long gate load". I'd like to think that it's so hard to win there that even the whales would throw in the towel and abandon Parx, but that's strictly wishful thinking.

[chadk66]

I've never really paid attention to bad start calls. But that figures seems pretty high to me just thinking about it. Shooting from the hip I would say 10% would be a normal figure. Maybe slightly higher May-July with more two year old races.

[Stillriledup]

Be interesting to see what percentage of those bad starts are on horses who are from out of town connections and not regular parx owners and trainers. Also, if any horse is ridden by a non-parx regular rider, that counts too.

If its random, it will all end up random in any subset also.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Be interesting to see what percentage of those bad starts are on horses who are from out of town connections and not regular parx owners and trainers. Also, if any horse is ridden by a non-parx regular rider, that counts too.

If its random, it will all end up random in any subset also.
SRU: I enjoy a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy, but I tried to keep an open mind as I compiled the bad start data, and saw no evidence that out of town trainers and jockeys were being victimized. The percentage of betting favorites that drew bad start calls was a little high, but not high enough to be labeled "statistically significant". Still looks like a random sample to me.

[Stillriledup]

SRU: I enjoy a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy, but I tried to keep an open mind as I compiled the bad start data, and saw no evidence that out of town trainers and jockeys were being victimized. The percentage of betting favorites that drew bad start calls was a little high, but not high enough to be labeled "statistically significant". Still looks like a random sample to me.

Thanks for this original post, its good food for thought.

[appistappis]

parx usually has a strong bias and is a trainer dominant track....pick your spots and its a great place to play.

[castaway01]

I am certain that the chart caller is the same person it has been for a long time. Your point is well taken. All in all, I think the chart caller is doing a better job than the starter, but it's altogether possible that these two know and do not like each other. There is a running litany of delayed starts noted by the chart caller, included as comments in the official charts such as "post time was delayed 4 minutes due to another long gate load". I'd like to think that it's so hard to win there that even the whales would throw in the towel and abandon Parx, but that's strictly wishful thinking.

I've noticed those comments from the chart caller too. I have no idea why he's so angry about the slow gate loads and feels the need to always mention them, or even if the gate loads at Parx are slower than at other tracks (I've never kept track of anything like that). I think the slow starts, though, are something to take note of, and another reason why if you play a track like this you have to get a price before you bet. If you're betting on 3-5 shots at Parx, you get what you deserve.

Good post and thread Elliott.

[castaway01]

parx usually has a strong bias and is a trainer dominant track....pick your spots and its a great place to play.

That's the only reason I still play the track---I follow trainers and this is one of the places it really pays to do that. Obviously you have to avoid the trifectas and other high-takeout bets but like any other track there are spots to win if you know what to look for.

[Pensacola Pete]

That's the only reason I still play the track---I follow trainers and this is one of the places it really pays to do that. Obviously you have to avoid the trifectas and other high-takeout bets but like any other track there are spots to win if you know what to look for.

Agreed that this is one of the kings of trainer tracks.

Not agreed that the verticals need to be avoided. Because it's a trainer track, many heavy favorites can be tossed out of the exotics. It's worthwhile to key the live trainer horse with all-except-heavy-favorite.