Regal Bloodlines 2015 Kentucky Derby Top 10 List

[Bob S.]

My Top 10 list based on a mixture of pedigree, racing talent, and pace scenario.

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/04/25/regal-bloodlines-2015-kentucky-derby-top-10/

[ArlJim78]

American Pharaoh not even in your top ten? Wow.

[minethatbird08]

My top 4 are in the top 6.

It will be interesting to see if AP can get the distance, he is a wonderful looking horse.

[boys at tosconova]

no AP in the top ten list..

is this a joke?

[Leparoux]

No mention of AP in Top 10 screams "look at me and how contrarian I am"

[boys at tosconova]

No mention of AP in Top 10 screams "look at me and how contrarian I am"

obv ploy to make his odds higher....ha

i don't care what kind of system or methods were used,..when you have baffert's second best horse 2nd on your list, and his #1 horse off altogether it's time to re-evaluate..this is made even more comical w/ danzing moon @ 6th and itsaknockout @ 9th

[BlueChip@DRF]

Upstart will be the wiseguy pick. He is not being overlooked.

[letswastemoney]

If it's a list based on pedigree for 10 furlongs, American Pharoah shouldn't be in the Top 10 and he is right.

[Bob S.]

No mention of AP in Top 10 screams "look at me and how contrarian I am"

I'm not really a contrarian, just a pedigree junky. His pedigree and his racing style scream for him to hit a wall somewhere in the Churchill Downs stretch and fading backwards, while others are moving forward towards the finish line. Just my read, not trying to make a bold statement because that's my style.

[OCF]

Why the incredulity bordering on ridicule? The man has unequivocally made his picks, and in six days we'll know for certain how he did. It's silly to argue about it now.

[SkunkApe]

Why the incredulity bordering on ridicule? The man has unequivocally made his picks, and in six days we'll know for certain how he did. It's silly to argue about it now.

I like the cut of your jib, sir.

I'm leaning towards the "Pharoah hits a wall" theory myself. If I'm wrong, oh well, I'll live with it.

[wisconsin]

I like the cut of your jib, sir.

I'm leaning towards the "Pharoah hits a wall" theory myself. If I'm wrong, oh well, I'll live with it.

I'll also go with that. These horses are going to feel pressure unlike any race they have been in. There are simply too many good horses with good intentions in the field. Only 3 can occupy the first three positions during the running, but the are going to 8 or more that want to be in one of those slots. AP could gun for the lead, suicide, IMHO. But if he does not, he will have challengers just for position throughout, and horses who battle on or near the lead usually come up empty the first Saturday in May.

[Cholly]

Bob, Over the past months you've freely shared the results of a great deal of research you've done; and you've done so in a pleasing writing style.

Much obliged!

[Bennie]

I never let anyone else influence my opinion as to whom I will wager on in the Derby and like most people have my own way of handicapping and eliminating certain horses. I enjoy reading all the posts and give kudos to all those who do extensive research and take time to post their thoughts.
this goes on every year and as long as there are polite exchanges and opposing views, I will continue to read any and all posts during the Triple crown races.
About 10% will end up being "correct" with our selections and have the bragging rights for a year when others will return to be correct.
All systems work from time to time and everyone is right time to time. I have been lucky enough to be "correct" the last 2 years and made good money on the Oaks/Derby double with Orb. This year looks to me to be one of the more evenly matched group of 3 year olds and it would have been nice to see some of the top horses run against each other so as to have a little better gauge but they did not. We have to wait another 6 days and while it may be a race to pass as far as betting because of the number of horses who could win if they bring their "A" game but on paper it looks to be one of the most exciting races we have had in years. Which ever horse wins and who ever gets bragging rights this year, I just hope all horses come home healthy.
Just my thoughts and thanks for taking the time to post yours Bob. Good luck Saturday.

[minethatbird08]

I never let anyone else influence my opinion as to whom I will wager on in the Derby and like most people have my own way of handicapping and eliminating certain horses. I enjoy reading all the posts and give kudos to all those who do extensive research and take time to post their thoughts.
this goes on every year and as long as there are polite exchanges and opposing views, I will continue to read any and all posts during the Triple crown races.
About 10% will end up being "correct" with our selections and have the bragging rights for a year when others will return to be correct.
All systems work from time to time and everyone is right time to time. I have been lucky enough to be "correct" the last 2 years and made good money on the Oaks/Derby double with Orb. This year looks to me to be one of the more evenly matched group of 3 year olds and it would have been nice to see some of the top horses run against each other so as to have a little better gauge but they did not. We have to wait another 6 days and while it may be a race to pass as far as betting because of the number of horses who could win if they bring their "A" game but on paper it looks to be one of the most exciting races we have had in years. Which ever horse wins and who ever gets bragging rights this year, I just hope all horses come home healthy.
Just my thoughts and thanks for taking the time to post yours Bob. Good luck Saturday.

Great post.

At the Derby party we host we always start off with a toast "That all the horses and riders come home safe and sound". I am glad you had a similar statement in your post. It seems that us as fans of this sport get a bad rap in regard to caring about the animals we bet on. However, in my experience, albeit short, I notice the majority of handicappers are concerned about the welfare of the people and horses in the sport.

[Bennie]

Minethatbird - thanks. Because of certain owners and trainers, we get some of the bad rap because we are "fans" of the sport. Guilty by association I guess. There are very, very few fans that don't care about the jocks and horses. It's mostly the people directly involved with the industry but the media likes to include all.
horses are big, beautiful but fragile animals and jocks have a very dangerous job but when they work together and all goes right, it can be the most exciting 2 minutes ever.

[taxicab]

Cool read Bob.
Sound logic from all corners.
I think you have the winner.
I'm with you on American Pharoah,think he's counterfeit.
Good luck Saturday.