Dosage on demand....

[taxicab]

Slick view:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2015/2015_kentucky_derby_contenders.htm

[LottaKash]

Quite interesting to tool around with.....thanks for the link Taxi... :ThmbUp:

[PICSIX]

If the conversion chart shown is accurate, Mubtaahij's UAE Derby performance earned him the highest PF of the field.

[PICSIX]

Top 5 in PF:

Mubtaahij
Materiality
El Kabier
Frosted
Carpe Diem

The winner has come from this group 11 times since 1998 according to the site.

[PICSIX]

Top 5 in TE:

Dortmund
Bolo
Firing Line
Mubtaahij
American Pharaoh

Top 5 in projected 10f

Firing line*
Dortmund*
Bolo

*Firing Line and Dortmund are in top 5 twice

Each of these categories has produced the winner 10 times since 1998.

[DeltaLover]

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:


When it comes to dosage, my advice is to stay clear and completely ignore the whole concept and (pseudo) theory..

[boys at tosconova]

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:


When it comes to dosage, my advice is to stay clear and completely ignore the whole concept and (pseudo) theory..


http://cdn.niketalk.com/c/cd/350x700px-LL-cdd4b81f_puddinpops.gif

[DeltaLover]

http://cdn.niketalk.com/c/cd/350x700px-LL-cdd4b81f_puddinpops.gif





http://i57.tinypic.com/2uswfaa.jpg

[BlueChip@DRF]

If the conversion chart shown is accurate, Mubtaahij's UAE Derby performance earned him the highest PF of the field.

The conversion is off.

If you multiply RPR x 0.835, you get an estimated BSF. Mubtaahij's RPR conversion to BSF is approximately 98.

[boys at tosconova]

my chef whips up a great bolognese sauce

[f2tornado]

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:


When it comes to dosage, my advice is to stay clear and completely ignore the whole concept and (pseudo) theory..

While Roman's site deals a lot with dosage, the numbers being spit out here are pace parameters and performance figures using whatever algorithm Roman is using. It's kinda like the Brisnet pace stuff but broken down more.

This is new on the site:

COMBINED AVERAGE PACE PARAMETER RANK POSITION:

FROSTED 4.43
MUBTAAHIJ 4.57
DORTMUND 6.57
INTERNATIONAL STAR 7.29
MATERIALITY 8.29
UPSTART 8.43
BOLO 8.57
AMERICAN PHAROAH 8.71
TENCENDUR 9.00
EL KABEIR 10.29
FIRING LINE 10.71
DANZIG MOON 11.29
CARPE DIEM 12.00
...

[DeltaLover]

While Roman's site deals a lot with dosage, the numbers being spit out here are pace parameters and performance figures using whatever algorithm Roman is using. It's kinda like the Brisnet pace stuff but broken down more.

This is new on the site:

COMBINED AVERAGE PACE PARAMETER RANK POSITION:

FROSTED 4.43 MUBTAAHIJ 4.57 DORTMUND 6.57 INTERNATIONAL STAR 7.29 MATERIALITY 8.29 UPSTART 8.43 BOLO 8.57 AMERICAN PHAROAH 8.71 TENCENDUR 9.00 EL KABEIR 10.29 FIRING LINE 10.71 DANZIG MOON 11.29 CARPE DIEM 12.00...

I have enough evidence to believe that the dosage theory is complete useless thus I have stopped paying attention to it many years ago...

[f2tornado]

I have enough evidence to believe that the dosage theory is complete useless thus I have stopped paying attention to it many years ago...

Fair enough but do let me know when the Chinese beat the Kenyans in a marathon. Most of the posts in this thread are discussing his pace parameters and not the DI anyway.

[SecretAgentMan]

I have enough evidence to believe that the dosage theory is complete useless thus I have stopped paying attention to it many years ago...



Who's your one & only derby horse?

[DeltaLover]

Who's your one & only derby horse?

How is this question relevant to the topic of the thread?

[DeltaLover]

his pace parameters and not the DI anyway.

Can you define pace parameters please?

[f2tornado]

Can you define pace parameters please?

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue. It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance. The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater. Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope. In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed. Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race. Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000. Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900. The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr. It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE). Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.

[DeltaLover]

Definition of Pace Terms:

Slope is a measure of fatigue. It parallels the increase in time required to negotiate an additional distance. The higher the number, the steeper the slope, indicating that the fatigue rate is greater. Slopes will generally fall between 0.9 (slow early-fast late) and 1.2 (fast early-slow late).

Int., or Intercept is a measure of early speed and is inversely related to the slope. In this case, the lower the intercept, the greater the relative early speed. Intercepts also will usually fall between 0.9 (fast early) and 1.2 (slow early).

CC, or Correlation Coefficient is a measure of how efficiently a horse's speed is used throughout the whole race. Perfect efficiency is equal to a CC of 1.00000. Any value below 1.00000 represents less than ideal efficiency, although it is almost always greater than 0.99900. The very best horses continually display CC's above 0.99990 while lower quality horses may not display CCs that high.

The remaining terms are part of the "Sartin Methodology" for describing pace characteristics as discussed by Tom Brohamer ("Modern Pace Handicapping", by Tom Brohamer, William Morrow and Company, Inc,. New York, 1991):

EP (Early Pace) is velocity in fps (feet-per-second) to the second call.

SP (Sustained Pace) is the average of early pace and the final fraction, thus relating a horse's speed to the second call and his ability to finish.

AP (Average Pace) is the average of EP and SP.

1Fr (First Fraction), 2Fr (Second Fraction) and 3Fr (Third Fraction) are the average velocities in fps between each of the calls.

TE (Total Energy) is the sum of EP and 3Fr. It is the total available energy based on current conditions of distance, surface and track as well as inherent ability.

%E (Percent Early) is a relative measure of energy used through the second call (EP/TE). Speed types display %E figures significantly higher than off-the-pace types, although the absolute numbers are greatly affected by the distance of a race.



But how all these are related to dosage? Additionally, I also consider most of these definitions to be pseudo-science, but this is another story of course...

[f2tornado]

But how all these are related to dosage? Additionally, I also consider most of these definitions to be pseudo-science, but this is another story of course...

The pace stuff isn't tied to dosage. It's simple mathematics, not science. They are simply speeds/times, sometimes put through an equation. Only one I'm not sure about is the "inherent ability" portion of TE. Have no clue where that comes from. Perhaps I should send Dr. Roman an e-mail.

[DeltaLover]

The pace stuff isn't tied to dosage. It's simple mathematics, not science. They are simply speeds/times, sometimes put through an equation. Only one I'm not sure about isa the "inherent ability" portion of TE. Have no clue where that comes from. Perhaps I should send Dr. Roman an e-mail.

But the problem I see with these type of metrics, is exactly that they are simple math, creating an over-simplified image of the ability of each horse.

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
Albert Einstein

[f2tornado]

But the problem I see with these type of metrics, is exactly that they are simple math, creating an over-simplified image of the ability of each horse.

Over simplified would be something like Beyer Speed Figures. I like the Roman stuff because you get a nice breakdown of each portion of race and not just a simple final time or number. He does offer a final number called a Performance Figure. Not sure what his equation is to end ends up with them. I agree, numbers don't often tell the entire story but I can also tell you human eyes are often deceiving. I'll trust certain numbers before I trust my eyes but that's just me. To each capper his own.

[DeltaLover]

To each capper his own.

This wraps it up...

[Tom]

The conversion is off.

If you multiply RPR x 0.835, you get an estimated BSF. Mubtaahij's RPR conversion to BSF is approximately 98.

Beyer gave him an unofficial 95.

[SecretAgentMan]

How is this question relevant to the topic of the thread?



You stated dosage points/index should be avoided, so I was curious to see how you pick your derby horse?

[DeltaLover]

You stated dosage points/index should be avoided, so I was curious to see how you pick your derby horse?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=121942&page=3&pp=10&highlight=Victory

I would had been happy if I had been passing the Derby every year! In a period of over twenty years, I managed to hit it only twice (Real Quite X Victory Gallop and Big Brown X Eight Bells) something that results to a really miserable ROI (my Preakness Record is even worse)..

I have arrived to the conclusion that the Derby is a very bad betting race that should be avoided as much as possible. Surely this is easier to say than do, since I have also learned that the urge to bet the Derby is impossible to avoid and the best I can do is to try to at least not get crazy and limit my bets within a reasonable size.

As far as strategy, I will try to detect the most competitive of the prep races and if its winner is in the Derby, I will decide if I will give credit to him for a possible repeat or even improve. Ideally, I would prefer to find more negatives than positives to him as in most of the other obvious contenders, something that will shift my interest to some of the more obscure contenders.

In a race like the Derby, I would try to invest somewhere within the range of $300 - $400, looking for a horse that will crash his career top by a huge margin. I will try to hook it in some form of a horizontal exotic, something like a double or a pick three, ideally combining with another high value spot. I will only bet my pick only in the top two, spots, leaving at least one of the obvious horses completely out of my tickets....

From the handicapping scope of view, I will be more inclined to pick a horse, who will present an obvious flaw for the judgement of a classical handicapper. It might be a horse who does not have started as a two year old or has a speedy pedigree or anything else that will make average bettors reluctant to bet on him...

[RoyalHeroine]

If the conversion chart shown is accurate, Mubtaahij's UAE Derby performance earned him the highest PF of the field.

Yes and geared down the last 8th.

I hope that the general public is biased against him for whatever reason.
He's the horse to beat.

[RoyalHeroine]

The conversion is off.

If you multiply RPR x 0.835, you get an estimated BSF. Mubtaahij's RPR conversion to BSF is approximately 98.

And where do you get the 0.835 figure?? I'm not buying.

Even if accurate, he was totally geared down in the last eighth, so we have no idea what the figure would be if he was asked even a little.

We will see that "little" on May 2nd!!:ThmbUp: Ha-Ha!

[SecretAgentMan]

Yes and geared down the last 8th.

I hope that the general public is biased against him for whatever reason.
He's the horse to beat.



It wouldn't surprise me if Mubtaahij wins the derby, I just hope he doesn't :)

[Andrick]

And where do you get the 0.835 figure?? I'm not buying.

Even if accurate, he was totally geared down in the last eighth, so we have no idea what the figure would be if he was asked even a little.

We will see that "little" on May 2nd!!:ThmbUp: Ha-Ha!

Dr Roman has his own conversion table on his site;

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comparative_speed_figs.htm

From across the pond, Timeform gave him a rating of 121 after his UAE Derby (half way down the following link) and using the above conversion table it puts it right in the ballpark of the RPR that he got.

https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/Ratings_Update_Prince_rules_and_a_French_revolutio n

For what it's worth.

[Blenheim]

An additional consideration . . . http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/the_power_of_pace_parameters.htm (http://chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/the_power_of_pace_parameters.htm). The wild card appears to be Mubtaahij.

[LemonSoupKid]

I follow Roman extensively, but just to be fair after the 2012 monster year of using the top 5 in EX, TRI and SUPER ...

2013

NORMANDY INVASION - 6
VERRAZANO - 6
VYJACK - 6
GOLDEN SOUL - 3
GOLDENCENTS - 3

2014

CALIFORNIA CHROME - 6
CANDY BOY - 5
DANCE WITH FATE - 4
INTENSE HOLIDAY - 4
WILDCAT RED - 4

[The above are the top 5 for the respective Derby years]

While he mentioned Oxbow in 2013 as a possible longshot (in the Derby, as a preview to later achievement possibly) with some confounding factors (multiplicity of AWS races), the top 5 just didn't have it. To be the most charitable, I used just the dirt top 5 that year. The Derby went:

Orb-Golden Soul-Revolutionary-Normandy Invasion

Close, but no cigar, and without the top choice anywhere near. In the next two, Oxbow (Preakness winner) and Palace Malice (Belmont champ) were out of the top 5, but within the top 7 or 8.

In 2014, the results went:

California Chrome-Commanding Curve-Danza-Wicked Strong

Although Chrome won, CCurve and Danza were only in the top 5 in 1 category, and Wicked Strong came in 3 times. No exotics this year, or in the rest of the races, as Ride on Curlin was not in top 5 (2nd place, Preakness), and Tonalist (winner, Belmont) although tied for 3rd in the top 5 standings, Commissioner (2nd) was ranked 7 in PP, with Medal Count (3rd place) just barely making it as 5th most appearances.

I hope you enjoyed the recap of the last two years.

As mentioned previously, the wild card this year is Mubtaahij, as he not only has passed the eye test and run high PFs at classic distances, he is the first of shippers/different surface runners that has truly a remarkable record with a great trainer. I usually go against overseas shippers, but his talent at that price might be too much to forget/deny.