Pre-Post Picks

[Huddy Goodjob]

Works are pretty much wrapped up...and with a week out...who is your pre-post pick?

[Huddy Goodjob]

I'll go first...

Frosted.

Closed into slow fractions in final prep...posted great numbers, E2, LP, Speed. Ranks highest on my Derby Pros and Cons grid. (drawing a line thru that FOY)

He's your Derby huckleberry.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Key: Upstart
ITM Bomb: Far Right

[minethatbird08]

1 - Frosted
1b - Carpe Diem- yes I know the negatives but been on him forever.
Bomber - Danzig Moon
X - Mubtaahij

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Likely to be keying around 4 horses:

Carpe Diem
Danzig Moon
American Pharoah
International Star

...and if Frammento gets in, I'll throw him in as well.

Can easily change as I dig in next week. Have completely eliminated Dortmund and Firing Line.

[wisconsin]

Upstart
Frosted

Savers:

Mubtaahij
International Star

Super Saver:

Ocho Ocho Ocho

[BlueChip@DRF]

Upstart
Frosted

Savers:

Mubtaahij
International Star

Super Saver:

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Super Saver ran in 2010.

[beefas]

AP / firing line/ war story/ El Kabier.. Super! $50 to win on war story! Then it's 20 exacta AP/ war story!.. And what Eva I feel come race day!

[SkunkApe]

Possible winners:

• Dortmund
• Mubtahiij
• Frosted

Second/third:

•Carpe Diem
• American Pharoah
• International Star

[upthecreek]

Mubtaahij
Frosted
Using both in the Oaks/Derby dd , probably a win bet on Mubtaahij if the price is right and box them in an exacta

[BlueChip@DRF]

I feel sorry for Upstart and Far Right. I picked them over the rest. Sorry about that.

[Grits]

May want to look at this morning's works at HRTV's site, Dortman, in particular.

[nads1420]

all could change but:

Keying Upstart, Mubtaahij

Bombs: Danzig Moon, War Story, El Kabeir

Sprinkling In: American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Firing Line, International Star, Materiality




Now i just gotta figure out my wagers. think im gonna bet 50% of my bankroll on Upstart to show...id guess a show bet on him should pay 3-1 or 5-2.... Think he is a Musket Man type, always runs good races finishes in the money. Plus i got that bonus 53-1 future ticket on him to win.

[Giacomo05]

Keying| Frosted and Upstart

Bombs| Danzig Moon and Frammento (If he gets in the gate)

[f2tornado]

Frosted is my win bet unless he draws way out. Don't think he is a Big Brown or I'll Have Another type plus a stronger field suggests it could be tough to win from next zip code.

Exacta just penciled in for now...
Frosted, American Pharoah, and possibly Mubtaahij/SAME + Carpe Diem, Int'l Star, Danzig Moon, Tencendur.

I'm not a big money player so will have to limit my selections in the trifecta but would consider Dortmund, El Kabong, Bolo, and Far Right on the bottom.

[Thunder Gulch]

Focused on Frosted and Dortmund. Won't toss American Pharoah, but hope he loses the race.

going deep under in some form TBD.
Upstart, Carpe, Pharoah, Danzig, Mubtaahij, Far Right maybe Keen Ice and Itsaknockout on some supers.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Frosted is my win bet unless he draws way out. Don't think he is a Big Brown or I'll Have Another type plus a stronger field suggests it could be tough to win from next zip code.

Exacta just penciled in for now...
Frosted, American Pharoah, and possibly Mubtaahij/SAME + Carpe Diem, Int'l Star, Danzig Moon, Tencendur.

I'm not a big money player so will have to limit my selections in the trifecta but would consider Dortmund, El Kabong, Bolo, and Far Right on the bottom.

El Kabong?

[f2tornado]

El Kabong?

Think 1960s cartoon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=010aaw1Ajo0

[uncbossfan]

Horse to beat - pharaoh

Horse to bet - firing line

Bombs away - far right

[hardboot]

elim

AP
Dortmund
Carpe Diem

picks (alpha order til after post assign)

Frosted
International Star
Mubtaahji

[Tommy Tom]

Can someone please post potential starters with jockey's or a link to them including jockeys?

Thanks

[zico20]

Dortmund!!

I am on record here after his CD win that he will be a superstar. Nothing has changed my opinion of that. All he needs is a clean race in the Derby and we finally have our Triple Crown winner. I have pounded him to win and in tris and supers ever since. I will pound him again in the Derby. Only AP could beat him with a clean trip, which I still doubt. I will back up my big win bet with a small exacta saver with AP on top just in case AP is as good as some people think.

I am praying for 4-1 on Dortmund. Then again, I pounded him at 3-5 every time he ran, so I can't complain if I only get 3-1 on him. A win is a win.

[SecretAgentMan]

Dortmund!!

I am on record here after his CD win that he will be a superstar. Nothing has changed my opinion of that. All he needs is a clean race in the Derby and we finally have our Triple Crown winner. I have pounded him to win and in tris and supers ever since. I will pound him again in the Derby. Only AP could beat him with a clean trip, which I still doubt. I will back up my big win bet with a small exacta saver with AP on top just in case AP is as good as some people think.

I am praying for 4-1 on Dortmund. Then again, I pounded him at 3-5 every time he ran, so I can't complain if I only get 3-1 on him. A win is a win.



You will get 4-1 on Dortmund, he's gonna be over shadowed by AP......

[Bennie]

Just did a little pedigree research and found my Derby horse.
Mubtaahij was foaled on April 28th which means he and I share a birthday. If he draws post #3, my lucky number I will double the bet.
Not to worry boys as I come from a humble background and can not afford what many of you are suggesting you will be playing come Derby day. I get $200 every 2 weeks for coffee, smokes, lottery and ponies so I will not affect the odds in any way. I wish I could afford more but there are other priorities and as much as I love the sport, other things and other people come first. I will however, be just as excited if he wins as some of you who make 10 fold what I will make.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Just did a little pedigree research and found my Derby horse.
Mubtaahij was foaled on April 28th which means he and I share a birthday. If he draws post #3, my lucky number I will double the bet.
Not to worry boys as I come from a humble background and can not afford what many of you are suggesting you will be playing come Derby day. I get $200 every 2 weeks for coffee, smokes, lottery and ponies so I will not affect the odds in any way. I wish I could afford more but there are other priorities and as much as I love the sport, other things and other people come first. I will however, be just as excited if he wins as some of you who make 10 fold what I will make.

Angle of the Month!

[Giacomo05]

Can someone please post potential starters with jockey's or a link to them including jockeys?

Thanks

http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-sponsored-fasig-tipton-churchill-downs

[Tommy Tom]

http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-sponsored-fasig-tipton-churchill-downs

Just what I was looking for with the jockeys listed and superb link and information. Extremely helpful !

Thank you so very much !! :)

[jahura2]

May want to look at this morning's works at HRTV's site, Dortman, in particular.

What she said. I'll go with:

Dortmund on top.
Others somewhere in the mix:
Firing Line
Frosted
Mubtaahij
Bolo
Danzig Moon

[minethatbird08]

May want to look at this morning's works at HRTV's site, Dortman, in particular.

Actually have a question about the work, hopefully someone here who can answer.

So for those who didn't watch the work. Dortmund worked in company and started about 6 lengths behind his workmate. He eventually caught him went past easy and galloped out beautifully. From my novice eye the work was great. However, what I really want to know is the reason for starting him behind his partner. Does it suggest they may rate him in the Derby?? or is it just because he is so fast that by not giving the other horse a head start it wouldn't give him much to work for, maybe leave him a little disinterested in the work? I have seen horses work in company but usually with much less space between them.

[boys at tosconova]

Angle of the Month!

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/fwEpfsUcpeQ/maxresdefault.jpg

[SecretAgentMan]

Actually have a question about the work, hopefully someone here who can answer.

So for those who didn't watch the work. Dortmund worked in company and started about 6 lengths behind his workmate. He eventually caught him went past easy and galloped out beautifully. From my novice eye the work was great. However, what I really want to know is the reason for starting him behind his partner. Does it suggest they may rate him in the Derby?? or is it just because he is so fast that by not giving the other horse a head start it wouldn't give him much to work for, maybe leave him a little disinterested in the work? I have seen horses work in company but usually with much less space between them.



Baffert knows Dortmund can go to the lead, he also knows that if a horse goes by him, he trues yo take the lead again......I'm guessing since we don't know the post positions, Baffert wanted to see if Dortmund got behind horses, how would he handle it.....also as you stated, he could be trying to rate him, but IMO, its too late for that. He's shown that he can rate a little bit, but IMO, with all the front runners & speed this year, when Dortmund sees them up front, he will chomp at the bit to get up there with them.......

[PaceMasterT]

Baffert knows Dortmund can go to the lead, he also knows that if a horse goes by him, he trues yo take the lead again......I'm guessing since we don't know the post positions, Baffert wanted to see if Dortmund got behind horses, how would he handle it.....also as you stated, he could be trying to rate him, but IMO, its too late for that. He's shown that he can rate a little bit, but IMO, with all the front runners & speed this year, when Dortmund sees them up front, he will chomp at the bit to get up there with them.......


I think you are overestimating him wanting the lead. Was he chomping at the bit to get the lead Nov. 29 or Dec 20?

[RoyalHeroine]

Works are pretty much wrapped up...and with a week out...who is your pre-post pick?

Mubtaahij

If he gets past this 1st one he's got a great shot to take all three!:cool:

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Mubtaahij

If he gets past this 1st one he's got a great shot to take all three!:cool:

Earlier this month I released Mubtaahij as my pick in the Derby. Then after viewing a lot more films came to the same conclusion as you, RoyalHeroine.

Attached is my second posting on Mubtaahij.

Since that time have been watching films of his grandfather, Dubai Millennium. I am amazed at the explosive speed both have once they hit the lane. If interested, check out the 2000 Dubai Cup on youtube.

[f2tornado]

I think you are overestimating him wanting the lead. Was he chomping at the bit to get the lead Nov. 29 or Dec 20?

December 20 pace through 4F was a full second faster than Santa Anita Derby and a second and half faster than San Felipe or Robert B. No shock Dort was a little behind that pace be it by design or more likely he just can't sprint that fast. I'm not gonna bother comparing a claiming race to stakes company but will note that pace was a 3/5 faster than San Felipe or Robert B as well. Dortmund has not shown he can sit back and save that energy for a big run late. He might not need the lead but it looks like he will be on or near it given his high cruising speed.

[overthehill]

I think that the most proven quantity in the field is the Dubai Invader. Now its possible that AP Dortmund and Materiality are superhorses but its possilble that Mubtahij is one too. The horse i have trouble figuring out where he fits is upstart. I know Materiality beat him. but he had more speed and Upstart was wide. I also dont know how desperate the trainer was to win the Fla Derby when the ultimate goal was the Kentucky Derby. This might be a bit like the Wood where Genuine Risk ran a close up third to Plugged Nickle before winning the KD. My gut feeling is that Mubtahij is likely no worse than second. and that both AP and Dortmund will show themselves to be distance challenged.

[Skanoochies]

Has Soumillon (sp?) ever ridden a Derby? Or at Churchill? :confused:
Just Wondering.

[minethatbird08]

Has Soumillon (sp?) ever ridden a Derby? Or at Churchill? :confused:
Just Wondering.

Don't think so. He has won a Breeders Cup race but that was on turf. You would hope he could pick up some dirt mounts on the undercard.

[TheGarMan]

He has not...

However, after researching him, I am confident that he is the man for the job. Very well decorated , world wide talent! :)

To that point, a few mounts on Friday or Saturday wouldnt hurt.

[wisconsin]

Has Soumillon (sp?) ever ridden a Derby? Or at Churchill? :confused:
Just Wondering.

He won the ARC twice in 20-horse fields.

[minethatbird08]

He won the ARC twice in 20-horse fields.

Europe has larger fields than we have here in the USA. That is a good point about the Arc.

[PaceAdvantage]

My top three, based solely on ability, with no regards to betting value, are:

DORTMUND
AMERICAN PHAROAH
FIRING LINE

[Skanoochies]

Good stuff. Thanks folks. :ThmbUp:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Something about Firing Line is bothering me. I keep forgetting about him when handicapping/creating tickets.

Maybe Dortmund has something over him, but if Firing Line makes a move in the stretch and doesn't see him, he might just turn it on.

[maddog42]

Using my past derby Pace Pars (past 23 derbys), 10 horses qualify:
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
American Pharoah
Itsaknockout
Firing Line
Bolo
Materiality
Upstart
Mr Z
and I cannot really eliminate Mubtaahij ( too little info) A very close elimination are Frosted and Frammento. I know, Frosted is on a lot of peoples contender list. I had to draw the line somewhere. Frosted is going to have to press a pace 7 lengths faster than he has ever seen.

[TMQ]

Materiality Wire to wire

Has already run with some solid speed horses Upstart and Stanford, neither one was a challenge. 2 wins at a mile and an eighth so hoping the distance will not be an issue.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Materiality Wire to wire

Has already run with some solid speed horses Upstart and Stanford, neither one was a challenge. 2 wins at a mile and an eighth so hoping the distance will not be an issue.

Or inexperience. Or the weight of the field.

[jtschmidt]

AP with Keen Ice underneath!

[SecretAgentMan]

Using my past derby Pace Pars (past 23 derbys), 10 horses qualify:
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
American Pharoah
Itsaknockout
Firing Line
Bolo
Materiality
Upstart
Mr Z
and I cannot really eliminate Mubtaahij ( too little info) A very close elimination are Frosted and Frammento. I know, Frosted is on a lot of peoples contender list. I had to draw the line somewhere. Frosted is going to have to press a pace 7 lengths faster than he has ever seen.



Did Frosted pres the pace in his last race? He was 2nd to last.......Upstart will be a lot closer to the pace than Frosted.

[Oldtimehockey]

tencendur