Derby exacta's

[beefas]

Who do we focus on for 2nd or 3rd for this race?.. Is there a true bomber to take 2nd?.. This is a big field of great horses! :bang:

[f2tornado]

Probably depends on if you think the speed breaks down allowing for a deeper closer like Far Right or Danzig Moon to come up late. Post positions may help evaluate that better. As of now I don't think the speed craters.

[RoyalHeroine]

Probably depends on if you think the speed breaks down allowing for a deeper closer like Far Right or Danzig Moon to come up late. Post positions may help evaluate that better. As of now I don't think the speed craters.

I agree.

And, perhaps most importantly, log how the track is playing in the days before the actual race, and, of course, on race day too.

Speed favoring? Path bias? Closers? Trends?

Pace makes the race. And I'm banking on too much juice early on with mid to late field closer picking up the pieces after the Mut and AP fight it out for the win.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I didn't pull the trigger last year:

$5 EX Key: California Chrome over the three longest shots.

"Nah, that'll never happen."

And here comes Commanding Curve......

:bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

[beefas]

I did the same blue chip!, :bang: :bang: .. I need to pick 3 bombers under AP!,and just stick with it!,I think to much and it hurts me all the time!, :mad:

[RoyalHeroine]

I didn't pull the trigger last year:

$5 EX Key: California Chrome over the three longest shots.

"Nah, that'll never happen."

And here comes Commanding Curve......

:bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

I too was a member of the Frank Zappa "It couldn't happen here" syndrome regarding the other CC. So, smarty pants that I was, kept him. Of course in the 3rd and 4th slots only in my tris and supers LOL.
Ain't no way he's gonna run 2nd.

I had it every way from sunshine with all the others: even Candy Boy (NEVER AGAIN).

Samraat, Danza, Wicked, Ride On, Dance w/Fate.

Thank God Dallas Stewart ain't in it this year!
If he wuz he'd probably win the damn thing!!:eek:

[SecretAgentMan]

Most horses were chasing Chrome last year turning for home & they ran out of gas.......there will be several horses chasing Firming Line, Dortmund & AP turning for him & will run out of gas......but those 3 with Materiality also in there will be battling it out & a bomb will come closing to win it......question is, will it be AP, Dortmund, Firing Line or Materiality holding on for 2nd/3rd place?

[nads1420]

Most horses were chasing Chrome last year turning for home & they ran out of gas.......there will be several horses chasing Firming Line, Dortmund & AP turning for him & will run out of gas......but those 3 with Materiality also in there will be battling it out & a bomb will come closing to win it......question is, will it be AP, Dortmund, Firing Line or Materiality holding on for 2nd/3rd place?


if that scenerio plays out its gonna take a quality horse to put those horses away. I dont think we are getting a Mine That Bird or Giacomo. If someone is going to do it its going to be Mubtaahij, Frosted, Carpe Diem, or Upstart

[SecretAgentMan]

I haven't seen this much hype on a horse like AP trained by Baffert since Bodemeister.

Also, Indian Charlie was hyped up & came in 3rd.......Pioneer of Nile got absolutely no hype at all after winning 4 str going into the derby because he was running on polytrack.

Out of AP & Dortmund, AP IMO is the better horse. AP for 2nd?

[Robert Fischer]

For 2nd , I usually like a speed type. Someone who can get out, and be the speed of the speeds (and he has to be solid, not always brilliant) and carry the lead into the stretch before being passed by the winner.

The other scenario for 2nd is a pace meltdown, in which case it will simply be one of the horses who are considered closers or deep stalkers. Doesn't hurt to have a good jock and have closed into a good race or even won a lower-tier prep leading in.


these are just fun 'templates', but seem to do pretty well in general

[Robert Fischer]

For 2nd , I usually like a speed type. Someone who can get out, and be the speed of the speeds (and he has to be solid, not always brilliant) and carry the lead into the stretch before being passed by the winner.

Examples: Stanford , Dortmund

The other scenario for 2nd is a pace meltdown, in which case it will simply be one of the horses who are considered closers or deep stalkers. Doesn't hurt to have a good jock and have closed into a good race or even won a lower-tier prep leading in.

Examples: International Star, El Kabier



:p Don't kill me on these examples. The fact that you can make up your own opinions about who does and who doesn't fit each category is what makes this theory seem to hold water lol.

[SecretAgentMan]

Who thinks AP & Dortmund won't hit the triple or super?

We all know what these horses are capable of.....thing is, it will be an all out horses bumping like bumper cats going around that 1st turn & knowing Firing Line, Materiality, AP, Stanford, Dortmund all have the speed & strength to over power other to get out fast & up front to stay away from that first turn chaos.

If any of these horses are caught up in the middle of the pack going around the 1st turn, game over IMO.......this isn't a 7, 8 or 9 horse field.

IMO, they should limit the derby to 15 horses......

[beefas]

I might have to put El Kabier on a few tickets! With Calvin on this horse he maybe the one to close on these horses , firing line will be there as well! Tough race!

[minethatbird08]

Who thinks AP & Dortmund won't hit the triple or super?

We all know what these horses are capable of.....thing is, it will be an all out horses bumping like bumper cats going around that 1st turn & knowing Firing Line, Materiality, AP, Stanford, Dortmund all have the speed & strength to over power other to get out fast & up front to stay away from that first turn chaos.

If any of these horses are caught up in the middle of the pack going around the 1st turn, game over IMO.......this isn't a 7, 8 or 9 horse field.

IMO, they should limit the derby to 15 horses......

I definitely think AP and Dort can hit the tri or super but I will be betting against it happening.

[davew]

I definitely think AP and Dort can hit the tri or super but I will be betting against it happening.


I am considering betting that 2 of AP, Dort, and Firing Line hit the tri

[minethatbird08]

I am considering betting that 2 of AP, Dort, and Firing Line hit the tri

It's a logical bet. If speed holds up and/or AP is the real deal you will be in like Flynn.

From a fan standpoint I have no problem with any of those winning.

[boys at tosconova]

why didn't you put your comments in the opt betting strat w/ american pharo thread.

i mean lol..you start the thread topic stating "derby exactas".....and then you post who is going to come in 2nd/3rd.

[beefas]

Why don't you just post who you like?. :D .. I want the post here in the derby thread ok? Sound good? No? :D

[Huddy Goodjob]

Who do we focus on for 2nd or 3rd for this race?.. Is there a true bomber to take 2nd?.. This is a big field of great horses! :bang:

Frosted
-----
Upstart
Dort
AP
-----
Intl Star
Danzig
War Story
Far Right
-----
Mub
Stanford
Keen Ice
El K
Tencendur

Bomber- Itsaknockout for 2nd...

Super- Frost/Intl Star/Ap/Stan, El K

[boys at tosconova]

Why don't you just post who you like?. :D .. I want the post here in the derby thread ok? Sound good? No? :D


oh..my bad

i thought this was the "who to put under AP for 2nd/3rd" disguised as a derby exacta thread.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Itsaknockout is going to be the non-handicapping public's choice because of the other big event later that night.

[boys at tosconova]

Itsaknockout is going to be the non-handicapping public's choice because of the other big event later that night.

we can only hope.

[beefas]

Frosted
-----
Upstart
Dort
AP
-----
Intl Star
Danzig
War Story
Far Right
-----
Mub
Stanford
Keen Ice
El K
Tencendur

Bomber- Itsaknockout for 2nd...

Super- Frost/Intl Star/Ap/Stan, El K..I like it huddy,,, :cool:

[SecretAgentMan]

Frosted
-----
Upstart
Dort
AP
-----
Intl Star
Danzig
War Story
Far Right
-----
Mub
Stanford
Keen Ice
El K
Tencendur

Bomber- Itsaknockout for 2nd...

Super- Frost/Intl Star/Ap/Stan, El K


Those tickets look good.......

[chov1125]

I see a ton of love for Upstart, but very little for Materiality....Am I missing something? What has Materiality done wrong to not warrant some consideration? I understand the instant critique is the final 1/8 of the Florida Derby, but Materiality beat Upstart in that race so if one looked slow down the stretch why the love for the other? Moreover, Materiality also beat Stanford more soundly than another horse who is gaining a lot of attention, International Star and did so at 1 1/8 and ran the final 1/8 of that race under the important 13 second guideline. I just don't get the love for some horses while tossing others with IMO better resumes.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I see a ton of love for Upstart, but very little for Materiality....Am I missing something? What has Materiality done wrong to not warrant some consideration? I understand the instant critique is the final 1/8 of the Florida Derby, but Materiality beat Upstart in that race so if one looked slow down the stretch why the love for the other? Moreover, Materiality also beat Stanford more soundly than another horse who is gaining a lot of attention, International Star and did so at 1 1/8 and ran the final 1/8 of that race under the important 13 second guideline. I just don't get the love for some horses while tossing others with IMO better resumes.

Maybe it's Materiality's record as a 2YO that puts people off.

[Thunder Gulch]

Frosted
-----
Upstart
Dort
AP
-----
Intl Star
Danzig
War Story
Far Right
-----
Mub
Stanford
Keen Ice
El K
Tencendur

Bomber- Itsaknockout for 2nd...

Super- Frost/Intl Star/Ap/Stan, El K

I would be a smartass and say "why don't you just tell me who you don't like and bet the ALL/ALL exacta?" , but right now I'm working with the same amount of horses in some different order.

[Thunder Gulch]

I see a ton of love for Upstart, but very little for Materiality....Am I missing something? What has Materiality done wrong to not warrant some consideration? I understand the instant critique is the final 1/8 of the Florida Derby, but Materiality beat Upstart in that race so if one looked slow down the stretch why the love for the other? Moreover, Materiality also beat Stanford more soundly than another horse who is gaining a lot of attention, International Star and did so at 1 1/8 and ran the final 1/8 of that race under the important 13 second guideline. I just don't get the love for some horses while tossing others with IMO better resumes.

People are tossing Materiality because he didn't start and 2 and the Curse of Apollo still holds since 1882. While lack of foundation is relevant, it doesn't hold the same importance as it did 20 years ago. Fusaichi Pegasus had his first start on +/-December 30, and Big Brown only had 3 races before the Derby. Materiality has shown enormous talent for such a lightly raced horse and while it seems as though popping a huge figure in your 3rd race will be impossible to pair up, he is lightly raced so who knows how good he is? All reports are that he bounced out of FL better than any of those from the Pletcher barn.

[minethatbird08]

I see a ton of love for Upstart, but very little for Materiality....Am I missing something? What has Materiality done wrong to not warrant some consideration? I understand the instant critique is the final 1/8 of the Florida Derby, but Materiality beat Upstart in that race so if one looked slow down the stretch why the love for the other? Moreover, Materiality also beat Stanford more soundly than another horse who is gaining a lot of attention, International Star and did so at 1 1/8 and ran the final 1/8 of that race under the important 13 second guideline. I just don't get the love for some horses while tossing others with IMO better resumes.

Agree with what those above said and will just add people are looking for value. Upstart should offer better odds and there are plenty of examples of a horse surpassing a rival next out. Upstart also has several positives and fewer red flags. As for myself I still haven't decided what to do with the Florida derby; might have to see how bird does in the oaks.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Looking at the past 15 years...

Only one year...and someone can double check this...but I believe in only 2011 the horses who made up the tri did not post a 100+ E2, LP or Speed figure.

They don't have to post all, but at least one has to be 100+.

That would knock out the following for the tri...

Stanford
Keen Ice
Far Right

[Huddy Goodjob]

Looking at the past 15 years...

Only one year...and someone can double check this...but I believe in only 2011 all the horses who made up the tri did not post a 100+ figure. Mucho Macho missed on the angle.

All- E2, LP or Speed don't have to be 100+, but at least one (E2, LP or Speed ) has to be 100+.

That would knock out the following for the tri...

Stanford
Keen Ice
Far Right
War Story



Still not sure what to do with that UAE horse.

Remaining...qualifiers

Think Carpe may lose his race in the paddock and post parade...Shows signs of horse not comfortable around crowds.

Think El K, Tensen, Firing wont have it to break into tri...

Mr. Z...Itsaknockout..Ocho...Bolo...ugh...well...its the derby...you never know...Mr. Z may surprise...although I can see him running next to last.

Itsaknockout, off the work with Materiality, may be coming back into form...calling him my Bluegrass Cat surprise.

Ocho, his only shot is to gun for the lead and just try and last it out.

Bolo??? Not a fan, but those turfers seem to love the CD dirt. May surprise for a piece...Paddy O'Prado style.

The rest I believe are high percentage plays to hit the tri...if you feel strongly about 1, a key on top with the rest under in the 2/3 slots...wont break the budget.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Made 2 futures...

Ocho x3

Madefromlucky

Down to one...pretty much.

Interesting thing I found when reviewing the tickets...

Got Ocho at 35-1 (3+5=8)...with a payout of 800...

now if he can just pull post 8. or...to make it real interesting, post 17...believe that's the only post yet to win the derby.

[minethatbird08]

Looking at the past 15 years...

Only one year...and someone can double check this...but I believe in only 2011 the horses who made up the tri did not post a 100+ E2, LP or Speed figure.

They don't have to post all, but at least one has to be 100+.

That would knock out the following for the tri...

Stanford
Keen Ice
Far Right

sounds about right.

I do like Mubtaahij fwiw; still want to hear more about how he is adjusting.

[davew]

I am considering betting that 2 of AP, Dort, and Firing Line hit the tri

went tris with those 3 and ALL in each position
- hit the race but basically break even in my exotics
- got $4.20 on my big AP show bet

interesting that if both of Bafferts got 1st and 2nd, they would have paid less to place than to show...