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WP1981
04-23-2015, 03:40 PM
Was just looking at them in case anyone is interested (may format funny):

5Dimes.com
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Horses Other Sports Money Line
Kentucky Derby - Winner - Churchill Downs - Louisville, KY - May 2
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 101 American Pharoah wins Kentucky Derby +225
5:00PM 102 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 103 Dortmund wins Kentucky Derby +400
5:00PM 104 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 105 Carpe Diem wins Kentucky Derby +850
5:00PM 106 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 107 Mubtaahij wins Kentucky Derby +1200
5:00PM 108 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 109 Materiality wins Kentucky Derby +1400
5:00PM 110 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 111 Firing Line wins Kentucky Derby +1600
5:00PM 112 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 113 Frosted wins Kentucky Derby +1500
5:00PM 114 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 115 Upstart wins Kentucky Derby +2000
5:00PM 116 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 117 International Star wins Kentucky Derby +2500
5:00PM 118 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 119 El Kabeir wins Kentucky Derby +4000
5:00PM 120 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 121 Far Right wins Kentucky Derby +5000
5:00PM 122 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 123 Bolo wins Kentucky Derby +4500
5:00PM 124 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 125 Itsaknockout wins Kentucky Derby +5000
5:00PM 126 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 127 War Story wins Kentucky Derby +5000
5:00PM 128 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 129 Danzig Moon wins Kentucky Derby +5000
5:00PM 130 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 131 Tencendur wins Kentucky Derby +7000
5:00PM 132 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 133 One Lucky Dane wins Kentucky Derby +6000
5:00PM 134 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 135 Ocho Ocho Ocho wins Kentucky Derby +6000
5:00PM 136 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 137 Madefromlucky wins Kentucky Derby +6600
5:00PM 138 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 139 Stanford wins Kentucky Derby +7000
5:00PM 140 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 141 Mr. Z wins Kentucky Derby +6600
5:00PM 142 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 143 Keen Ice wins Kentucky Derby +6600
5:00PM 144 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 145 Bold Conquest wins Kentucky Derby +7000
5:00PM 146 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 147 Frammento wins Kentucky Derby +7000
5:00PM 148 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 149 Metaboss wins Kentucky Derby +15000
5:00PM 150 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 151 Firespike wins Kentucky Derby +15000
5:00PM 152 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 153 Toasting Master wins Kentucky Derby +15000
5:00PM 154 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
all horses have action regardless if horse runs
Thu 4/30 155 Task Force Glory wins Kentucky Derby +15000
5:00PM 156 Field wins Kentucky Derby -99999
Triple Crown Races 2015 - Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont
Thu 4/30 1501 A horse wins Triple Crown 2015 +675
5:00PM 1502 No Triple Crown winner

WP1981
04-23-2015, 03:42 PM
They all seem awful to me but I assume they are taking some action.

Under 7-1 on a TC winner is laughable. I don't know if I'd take it at 30-1.

SecretAgentMan
04-23-2015, 03:49 PM
They all seem awful to me but I assume they are taking some action.

Under 7-1 on a TC winner is laughable. I don't know if I'd take it at 30-1.



Lmao@ 7-1 for a triple crown winner.......I need at least 50-1 to even think of betting it. We haven't seen one since the 70's & they're throwing up 7-1, that's nuts!

WP1981
04-23-2015, 04:09 PM
Lmao@ 7-1 for a triple crown winner.......I need at least 50-1 to even think of betting it. We haven't seen one since the 70's & they're throwing up 7-1, that's nuts!

Agreed. I don't see any value. AP really going to be +220 at post time? Plus you are vulnerable to a scratch as well. Wtf?

Some_One
04-23-2015, 04:10 PM
Lmao@ 7-1 for a triple crown winner.......I need at least 50-1 to even think of betting it. We haven't seen one since the 70's & they're throwing up 7-1, that's nuts!

You're getting the field for the Derby, so then it's just a parlay between the Preakness and Belmont, of course Belmont Win odds on the TC horse and the true odds are screwed up. 7-1 seems right

RoyalHeroine
04-23-2015, 04:35 PM
You're getting the field for the Derby, so then it's just a parlay between the Preakness and Belmont, of course Belmont Win odds on the TC horse and the true odds are screwed up. 7-1 seems right

Not to me it doesn't.

There are so many things that can go wrong.

The fragility of the breed in the last 30+ years especially.

So 7-1 is way off and I'm sure there is little to no action on it.

sbcaris
04-23-2015, 05:30 PM
If a horse won the first two legs of the Crown and they gave me 3-1 odds on that horse winning the Belmont Stakes, I still would not take it because of what happened in the last 37 years where all 12 that tried to do it FAILED.

Some_One
04-23-2015, 05:49 PM
Not to me it doesn't.

There are so many things that can go wrong.

The fragility of the breed in the last 30+ years especially.

So 7-1 is way off and I'm sure there is little to no action on it.

What odds did you put on Chromie winning the Belmont last year?

TucsonGreyhound
04-23-2015, 05:50 PM
I see quite a bit of value.

Good luck getting odds of 50/1 or higher on Derby Day for horses like Danzig Moon, Tencendur or Far Right.

7/1 seems fair for a Triple Crown price. If AP or Dortmund won the Derby they would be odds-on in the Preakness and you could always hedge that ticket in the Belmont.

Some_One
04-23-2015, 05:53 PM
If a horse won the first two legs of the Crown and they gave me 3-1 odds on that horse winning the Belmont Stakes, I still would not take it because of what happened in the last 37 years where all 12 that tried to do it FAILED.

Sample size issues, plus you had one losing by a nose and a couple of length or so finishes, could easily argue they have been on the wrong side of variance.

TucsonGreyhound
04-23-2015, 06:03 PM
Also, if AP wins the Derby there's no way Baffert is running Dortmund back against him in either the Preakness or Belmont. Same for AP if Dortmund won. :cool:

TucsonGreyhound
04-23-2015, 06:08 PM
And don't underestimate the volume of bets that 5dimes takes on these types of wagers. Their listed prices will be the closest reflections of what these horses odds will be on Derby Day (the 5dimes odds will always be a couple ticks higher) than anything you will find anywhere.

It's worth keeping an eye on, especially when they start listed the odds against for horses (all currently at -999999). This will give you an idea of who the big, sharp money knows will likely be non-factors.

davew
04-24-2015, 12:11 AM
Also, if AP wins the Derby there's no way Baffert is running Dortmund back against him in either the Preakness or Belmont. Same for AP if Dortmund won. :cool:

I would consider that a possibility if Baffert owned both horses. Since he owns neither, it would probably take an injury to eliminate either from other triple crown races.

SecretAgentMan
04-24-2015, 12:38 AM
Also, if AP wins the Derby there's no way Baffert is running Dortmund back against him in either the Preakness or Belmont. Same for AP if Dortmund won. :cool:



No way dude.......there's no way he's gonna keep Dortmund out of both the Preakness & Belmont if AP win the KD......if AP win the KD & Preakness, then I could see him keeping Dortmund out, but unless there's an injury, I think both run in the Preakness as well.

boys at tosconova
04-24-2015, 09:25 AM
lol @ anybody seeing value at getting 7-1 on a triple crown winner

like a few said....most of these odds are awful.

maybe a couple will be nice, like mutabi/firing line/upstart/material..but mutabi is really the only one that i think will be lower than what they're offering, and would bet on.

Thunder Gulch
04-24-2015, 11:39 AM
Best waiting on the short prices because I think you'd get a few clicks higher, but I do agree that some of the bombs will likely be much less than 5 dimes is showing.

boys at tosconova
04-24-2015, 01:19 PM
Best waiting on the short prices because I think you'd get a few clicks higher, but I do agree that some of the bombs will likely be much less than 5 dimes is showing.

if i loved butabi as much as some do i would throw $$$ on him here.

i don't think you're getting 12-1 on him..i think it will be half of that. so based on my assumptions there is value @ this price

WP1981
04-27-2015, 11:10 AM
I took a small flyer on Frosted at 15-1 and then saw him at over 18-1 on Bookmaker so I placed another ticket on him there.

Slowly becoming pot committed on him.

boys at tosconova
04-27-2015, 11:21 AM
I took a small flyer on Frosted at 15-1 and then saw him at over 18-1 on Bookmaker so I placed another ticket on him there.

Slowly becoming pot committed on him.

frosted has to be looked at. great bounce back race, where i thought he was iffy going into the wood. i will be using him and tendencur underneath.

WP1981
04-27-2015, 11:45 AM
Here are current bookmaker odds:
AMERICAN PHAROH +265
CARPE DIEM +685
DORTMUND +485
UPSTART +2050
MUBTAHHIJ +1016
MATERIALITY +1525
BOLO +4550
INTERNATIONAL STAR +2255
FROSTED +1818
FIRING LINE +1500
FAR RIGHT +3059
EL KABEIR +2750
ITSAKNOCKOUT +5750
WAR STORY +4550
STANFORD +5250
MR Z +7250
OCHO OCHO OCHO +4550
DANZIG MOON +4250
TENCENDUR +6850
KEEN ICE +5650
FRAMMENTO +8550