Storm Cat

[sbcaris]

Does anyone have a list of horses that had Storm Cat in their pedigrees over the last 10 years or so and where they finished in the KY Derby?

[sammy the sage]

0-44....if you want the list of names...I ain't going that far...

ps...that's for winning...not placing or showing...

[sbcaris]

One point about Carpe Diem is as follows:

Although he has storm cat as his paternal grandsire he has Giant's Causeway as his sire and Giant Causeway is a son of Storm Cat who does not transmit sprinting speed as did Storm Cat. Giants Causeway average win distance as a sire is 8.3 (he is predominantly transmitting stamina to his foals).

So even though Carpe Diem carries Storm Cat on his sire line he probably inherited the stamina part of that sire line to a greater extent than the speed craziness that usually comes from Storm Cat (miler or middle distance type).

I think its wrong to rule out all horses that carry Storm Cat in their pedigrees in the Derby. Not all Storm Cats are just sprinter /middle distance types.

Dortmund is another runner that carries Storm Cat and he is scary because he has dominant classicity a dosage profile that usually spells stamina. Not all Storm Cats are sprinter/middle distance types.

[BlueChip@DRF]

All 44 starters had Storm Cat somewhere in theier blood in various positions. Closest to winning was Bluegrass Cat who came in 2nd.

[sbcaris]

Here are the ones that raced second in the Derby with Storm Cat in their pedigree:

Bodemeister- led the first 6 furlongs in an insane 1:09 and change and still stayed on for second behind Ill Have Another. His broodmare sire was storm cat.

Menifee, with Storm Cat on the Sire Line lost the 1999 Derby by a neck behind Charismatic.

Lion Heart with Storm Cat on the sire line ran second behind Smarty Jones in the slop of 2004.

Ice Box with Storm Cat in the pedigree was a fast closing second behind Super Saver in 2010.

Commanding Curve with Storm Cat in his pedigree was a closing second last year behind California Chrome.

Bluegrass Cat ran second in the 2006 Derby behind Barbaro and also ran second in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes that year. He certainly was not just a middle distance runner like most of the Storm Cats.

These above horses who ran second in the Derby certainly did not lack stamina even though they carried Storm Cat in their pedigrees.

[minethatbird08]

One point about Carpe Diem is as follows:

Although he has storm cat as his paternal grandsire he has Giant's Causeway as his sire and Giant Causeway is a son of Storm Cat who does not transmit sprinting speed as did Storm Cat. Giants Causeway average win distance as a sire is 8.3 (he is predominantly transmitting stamina to his foals).

So even though Carpe Diem carries Storm Cat on his sire line he probably inherited the stamina part of that sire line to a greater extent than the speed craziness that usually comes from Storm Cat (miler or middle distance type).

I think its wrong to rule out all horses that carry Storm Cat in their pedigrees in the Derby. Not all Storm Cats are just sprinter /middle distance types.

Dortmund is another runner that carries Storm Cat and he is scary because he has dominant classicity a dosage profile that usually spells stamina. Not all Storm Cats are sprinter/middle distance types.

Carpe Diem is also from female family 23-b.

[sbcaris]

I still think it is wrong to rule out all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees. Not all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees are the same. Just because they are O-44 in the win position of the Derby does not necessarily mean that the trend will definitely continue. How many of those 44 were real contenders to begin with? I would love to know how many of those 44 qualified on fast final 3/8 in a big 5 prep race.

I really doubt that having storm cat in one's pedigree is the kiss of death in the Derby.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I still think it is wrong to rule out all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees. Not all horses with Storm Cat in their pedigrees are the same. Just because they are O-44 in the win position of the Derby does not necessarily mean that the trend will definitely continue. How many of those 44 were real contenders to begin with? I would love to know how many of those 44 qualified on fast final 3/8 in a big 5 prep race.

I really doubt that having storm cat in one's pedigree is the kiss of death in the Derby.

But they do fill out the Exacta nicely.

[f2tornado]

Sire side:

2010: Make Music For Me 4th
2008: Denis of Cork 3rd and Tale Of Ekati 4th
2006: Bluegrass Cat 2nd
2004: Lion Heart 2nd
1999: Menifee 2nd and Cat Thief 3rd

[sbcaris]

Here is an interesting fact: I looked over the last 20 years of my KY Derby data regarding all the qualifiers on my final fraction indicator. ONLY 6 of the last 103 carried Storm Cat in their pedigree and ran out of the money. The six I found that had Storm Cat and ran out of the money in the Derby were:

Ride On Curlin
Verrazano
Vyjack
Creative Cause
Comma To the Top
West Side Bernie

It might be true to say that 44 runners with Storm Cat lost the Derby. But how many lost the Derby that qualified on my final fraction indicator? That number is the 6 above here and the 6 that ran second. Thats 12 of 103 that lost the Ky Derby with Storm Cat in their pedigrees who also achieved a 37 4/5 in a big 5 prep race.

Note: I did not include the 6 horses who ran second in the Derby with Storm Cat in their pedigree.

Main Point: Only 6 horses who carried Storm Cat in their pedigree qualified on my final fraction indicator and ran out of the money. I do not know who the other 32 horses were but these were not contenders to begin with since they did not finish fast in a big 5 prep race.

[SecretAgentMan]

The Storm Cat trend is strong enough by itself. What you're trying g to say is a trend isn't strong w/o your indicator, which is false.

[taxicab]

Does anyone have a list of horses that had Storm Cat in their pedigrees over the last 10 years or so and where they finished in the KY Derby?

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

[OCF]

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

I've been skeptical, but that is grim.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Just think of all the Derby winners you have missed out on while holding on to long standing Derby myths over the past 15 years:

Charasmatic
War Emblem
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Street Sense
Mine That Bird
Animal Kingdom
California Chrome

Materiality and Carpe Diem on the docket to potentially bust some more long standing Derby myths in 2015.

[f2tornado]

Just think of all the Derby winners you have missed out on while holding on to long standing Derby myths over the past 15 years:...

It's obvious a handicapper cannot play every single angle. There would be nothing left to wager on. Angle players need to key in on a couple of those angles that provide a solid impact value. Perhaps the can make a stronger wager in years when the counter angles are few or weak. I've seen enough of Stanley's sheets from AT to know American Pharoah (Fractions, RAN) and Carpe Diem (Fractions, 23b) are at or near top of that checklist this year but with this goofy Storm Cat angle going against them. I did appreciate the note about six of the 12 Storm Cat horses with solid fractions finishing second so one could argue they are overrepresented in the exacta. I'm not convinced Storm Cat is the kiss of death but 0-44 is ugly and 0-12 with fractions is still ugly. That said, it would appear AP and CD are strong contenders to hit the board at a minimum. Stanley, what does your final fractions indicator say about Todd Pletcher? His winning percentage (1-40) is one Super Saver above Storm Cat.

[OCF]

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

This list appears to omit Commanding Curve, IMHO he makes a big difference in the takeaway.

[sbcaris]

This discussion parallels another pedigree pattern that existed for years: From the time of Raise A Native 1965 until 2006 there were ZERO Derby winners that carried the Raise A Native broodmare sire line. Whereas up to 2006 there were 13 Derby winners that carried the RAN sire line.

It was something like 45-50 horses that ran in the Derby with the RAN broodmare sire line up to 2005 and NONE of them won the roses until Barbaro in 2006 who carried Carson City as his brood mare sire and therefore the RAN broodmare sire line. This is very similar to the Storm Cat 0-44 stat.

Since 2006 we have two more RAN on the broodmare sire line Derby winners: Mine That Bird and California Chrome.

To say that the presence of one horse anywhere in a pedigree is a clear cut detriment for winning the Derby is a misunderstanding of the statistic.

Once again, every horse is an individual. Not all Storm Cats are created equal and if 6 raced second in the Derby its just a matter of time when one will win the roses. It could be this year.

Do I toss Dortmund and American Pharaoh and Carpe Diem because they have Storm Cat in their third generation where the influence is only 12.5% of the genes? If I do not use them in my exacta box it will not be because of the presence of Storm Cat. There are many other reasons to ponder before final decisions will be made.

[taxicab]

This list appears to omit Commanding Curve, IMHO he makes a big difference in the takeaway.

You are correct.
I missed Commanding Curve.
How I missed a horse out of one of the best broodmare names ever is beyond me. :D

[OCF]

Does anyone have a list of horses that had Storm Cat in their pedigrees over the last 10 years or so and where they finished in the KY Derby?

The list I came up with is attached below.

I don't know a lot about statistics, but I'm pretty sure 28 under-performing to 25 out-performing their win odds would not be considered statistically significant. Maybe somebody with more statistical knowledge could weigh in.

I'm leaning towards this putting the idea of a Storm Cat curse to rest, but I'd still be interested in differing opinions.

The only way that I knew to put together this list was highly manual, so if somebody wants to offer a similar list for comparison purposes (to check for errors) that would be greatly welcomed.

[sbcaris]

OCF: Thanks for the data. The following is an interesting take on the data for the 10 year period 2005-2014:

55 runners carried Storm Cat in their pedigrees of 196 total starters in the above time frame. This translates into 28.6% of the starters with the Storm Cat factor. Since in the last 10 years 4 of the above 55 ran second in the Derby:

Commanding Curve in 2014
Bodemeister in --------2012
Ice Box-----------------2010
Bluegrass Cat----------2006

The impact value for running second in the Derby over the last 10 years is 1.40. (40% place finishers divided by 28.6% of the starters. This means that horses with Storm Cat anywhere in their pedigree are running second 40% more often than statistical expectation.

Of course, the impact value to win the roses for Storm Cat horses is ZERO.

However, who wagers on all the Storm Cat horses?. There were 45 Storm Cat horses on OCF's list that did not qualify on my final fraction indicator. Only 10 qualified on a fast final time. Generally, i do not wager on any of these that did not qualify on my final fraction time. Its like my Buckpasser angle. Last year there were 10 Derby horses who carried Buck in the X. I wagered only on the 4 that fit my final fraction indicator and one of the 4 won (Cali Chrome) and one of the four qualifiers was second (Wicked Strong). The purpose of handicapping is to fine tune the data that is significant. Many horses with Buckpasser in the X cannot run a lick. Similarly, many Storm Cat horses cannot run a lick. Those that show us they can by either running fast final times or high Beyer figs or something else that is commendable are the ones to take a risk on.

From the standpoint of those that achieved a final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less we get an entirely different picture. There were only 5 years in the last 10 where at least one Storm Cat horse achieved a final fraction of 37 4/5 or less:

2014 Ride On Curlin
2013 Verrazzano and vyjack
2012 Bodemeister (2nd) and El Padrino
2011 Comma To the Top
2010 Ice Box (2nd) and Line of David

So thats 8 horses qualifying on both factors which is approx 8% of the starters and since there were 2 place finishers in that 5 year period the impact value to place is a humongous 5.00. Horse with storm cat plus final fraction time are running second in the Derby 5 times more often than statistical expectation.

Now I realize the above is such a small sample of data that it is to be taken with a grain of salt.

Some handicappers will still say they will omit Dortmund, American Pharaoh and Carpe Diem because they carry Storm Cat in their pedigrees. I take that idea also with a grain of salt.

[OCF]

OCF: Thanks for the data.

My pleasure sbcaris. You've been generous with a lot of data that had to have taken you a lot of time to compile.

[Dad4Gloria]

Last 3 years:

2014:
5) Samarat
7) Ride on Curlin
9) Chitu
12) Intense Holiday
16) Harry's Holiday
18) Wildcat Red
19) Vicar's Trouble

2013:
10) Giant Finish
14 Verrazano
17) Frac Daddy
18) Goldencents
19) Vyjack
20) Falling Sky

2012:
2) Bodemeister
5) Creative Cause
9) Hansen
10) Daddy Nose Best
15) Sabercat
17) Trinneberg
20) Daddy Long Legs

The last 4 years the SC line has accounted for the last place finisher in the Derby{2011-Comma To The Top}.

Nice call on Pharoah you human anchor.