Workouts over 4 fur

[timtam]

I just saw a new system on the market which in essence disregards all workouts under 5 furlongs and only uses the 4 furlongs if it has the black mark by it. I just think this throws out alot of horses and races and almost totally disregards the 3 fur. I know alot of cappers on the board work in detail using workouts and for me its kind of new. Is this thing on the right track???

[Jeff P]

I would say that an appraoch based on using four furlong works only if there is a bullet would tend to point you away from too many good priced winners.

In using workout speed to make my form rating one of the things I tested very early on was the effectiveness of workouts at varying distances. I found that horses lacking a work four furlongs or longer won fewer races and returned less money than horses that did show a work four furlongs or longer. There were exceptions though. At some tracks where they run very cheap horses, a workout four furlongs or longer between races can be a genuine rarity. At those places horses are raced into condition without any intention of winning. When it's time for the connections to "cash a gamble" and they think their horse is ready, look out.

[kenwoodallpromos]

IMO, the spacing and regularity of works tells a lot about fitness and the distance combined with the number of horses working that distance tells something about speed.
For instance, if a horse had no 4f works showing but had a mixture of 3f and 5+f relatively fast works with 10 or more horses working that distance, and especially if the track speed or variant varied, that would show great versatility and remaining in good form.
My point is the more clues you can use to find underlying proof that a horse is in form, placed properly, and has a competitive nature, the easier you can judge the true value vs. odds or profit potential.
If you look at any form or some online pp's you can tell what % of entries in various races are Capable of good looking or even bullet 4f works if handily. I think a lot. I think the trick is to tell how easily a horse worked and if it helped or hurt the upcoming race.
I believe Quinn and others have written well on the subject.
Any angle or system for sell needs to show it works and has to make common sense. I would like more info on that one before judging it. If anything smells like a short cut make sure it does not cut you short!
I understand 3f works are for front end speed and that is why trainers like to work them just prior to races. They should not produce much lactic acid at all depleting the horse.

[arkansasman]

It is not the workout, it is what you do with them before you work a horse out. Example - back track a horse to the 3/8's pole, gallup the horse a strong mile and blow them out 3 furlongs.

[andicap]

Then there are trainers who work out horses on their private tracks.
Then there are trainers who work their horses fast in hopes someone will claim them but the horses might be on their last legs.

with workout times, how do you know how wide the horse went around the turn?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Since you started it-
Cheapies in company with better or worse horses.
Unknown how the horse did after the stopwatch stopped.
Unknown factors in the morning like feed, leg treatments.
Unknown if the trainer is (legally) doping the hors4es for the workout.
Workout may have been at the horse's home familiar track other than the the current strange one.
Workout may have been from a start walking, in motion.
Workout could have been with a new and green exerciser.
Workout could have been only to qualify horse for a race and not quality.
Workout was without crowds, paddock saddling, post parade.
_______________

My point is a single or couple of workouts while throwing out any may only tell part of the story. Judging a horse or the track itself based on as many workouts as possible is always preferable, to judge the pattern emerging.

[Jeff P]

Ran a query against the database using distance of longest work since last race (dirt sprints only.) Those with a 0 in the Fur column are horses without a work since the last race. The differences in win percent are slight. Horses whose longest workout was 2f, 3f, or 7f had the lowest roi.


Fur Wins/Starts Pct-- ROI
0 2023/16299 .1241 .7399
2 0000/00007 .0000 .0000
3 0490/04314 .1136 .6885
4 1950/14341 .1360 .7935
5 2087/16008 .1304 .7701
6 0478/03872 .1235 .7284
7 0058/00504 .1151 .6752
8 0017/00174 .0977 .9034
______________________
T 7108/55519 .1280 .7577

[so.cal.fan]

As a general rule, you like to see a 5f or longer work within two weeks......for horses running a distance.
If you check the big stakes races....you'll almost always see this training pattern.
Problem is, even here in So. Cal. where we have a very good mandatory disclosure system for workers......it is only about 75% accurate.
Andicap gives some examples of this in his post.
I have found while scanning pps from other areas.....workout accuracy is very questionable......Ky. and Texas come to mind, because that is where I usually look.
Remember.....horse can and do work on drugs.......to surpress speed or promote it.......we have no way of knowing these things, which imo, makes workout information useless to the handicapper.

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by Jeff P
Ran a query against the database using distance of longest work since last race (dirt sprints only.) Those with a 0 in the Fur column are horses without a work since the last race. The differences in win percent are slight. Horses whose longest workout was 2f, 3f, or 7f had the lowest roi.


Fur Wins/Starts Pct-- ROI
0 2023/16299 .1241 .7399
2 0000/00007 .0000 .0000
3 0490/04314 .1136 .6885
4 1950/14341 .1360 .7935
5 2087/16008 .1304 .7701
6 0478/03872 .1235 .7284
7 0058/00504 .1151 .6752
8 0017/00174 .0977 .9034
______________________
T 7108/55519 .1280 .7577
Thanks Jeff.

[BeatTheChalk]

Do I have this right ... The entire system is based on a work out
pattern ? Darnit .. I sold several systems back in the late 80's
where I gave away some great info on Workouts :) Can you
tell me who the Vendor is .. and if there is a money back
guarantee. I my heart of hearts..I feel that the vendor is a novice
but then again ....it could be one of the 2 big systems mills that
are still around

[timtam]

Beat the Chalk,

No thats not the entire system. I kind of get scared to give any rules on systems but that is where the system starts. It has trainer checks, workout formulas, and other rules. It also includes an exotic wagering guide and a few other things.

[BeatTheChalk]

Thanks for the feedback ... When I sold systems .. folks would
take my rules and use them for their system....The law is very
well settled...There is NO COPYRIGHT on a gambling system

I still love to read mailers from the system sellers ...I am one
of the biggest mooches of all time LOL ...But alas I am off the
mailing lists for the most part. Keep us up to date and how
the system is working for yah ..if you buy it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The no workout win% and ROI looks interesting!
Jeff P.- can you run a query for win % and ROI for no workouts broken down by days between races or since last race?

[vespa7]

I think trainer patterns are big key to workouts! Also getting legit clocker reports guys who see the same horses everyday they know who can't run which saves the capper a lot of work,

[Jeff P]

can you run a query for win % and ROI for no workouts broken down by days between races or since last race?

Ken,

Horses with no works showing since last race broken out by days since last race:

DIRT SPRINTS

Days- Wins/Starts Pct-- ROI
00-04 0009/00082 .1098 .3933
05-09 0399/03315 .1204 .7989
10-14 1279/10058 .1272 .7391
15-19 0335/02818 .1189 .6881
20-UP 0001/00026 .0385 .2654
__________________________
TOTAL 2023/16299 .1241 .7402

[kenwoodallpromos]

Looks like after 1 week it is ok to subsitute a race for a work if the horse is fit already.
Like I said, need more info on the 4f or longer works system to t properly evaluate.