Mahoning Valley Race Course 04-20-15

[rrpic6]

The Postman's Picks

April 20, 2015

Race

Selections

Comments

1

#3 Aragorn’s Quest

Slight class drop, hot trainer, 3rd off layoff all help her quest to win now.

#2 Adonica

Reeled off 3 wins in a row at Oaklawn in ’14. Spends Summers in Minn.

#5 Giggle Fit

Ran twice here in Dec. Made little impact. Prepping for Presque Isle?

2

#5 War Chancelor

Louisiana invader comes off 10 week rest. Moves up on wet surface.

#3 Wild Hardships

3 2nd place finishes in a row with A. Gonzalez aboard. Makes it 4 today.

#2 Coldstream

Broke his maiden at today’s distance. Can open up big lead if its sloppy.

3

#4 Pommette

Destroyed a nice bunch of 10K claimers last out. Jumps up to Allowance

#5 Ceylon Sapphire

Won 3 in a row last Spring at Mountaineer. Lots of layoff lines since.

#3 Comeflywithanangel

She might be tuning up for Mich. Bred Stakes coming up at Hazel Park.

4

#1 Peace at Last

Versatile horse has won on Poly/Tapeta/dirt. A wet surface no problem

#3 Truebill

Has faced some of MVR’s best runners this meet. Fits with 5K claimers.

#4 Three For Two

Draw a line thru last race at Turfway. Showed nice closing kick at MVR.

5

#6 Jimminy

Even effort in 1st race at MVR 4-11. Race 12-27 at Gulfstream was live.

#7 Norte Chico

Only career race was a rough one at Laurel. Regroups here for big barn.

#3 Skye Tale

Ohio Bred has been working well for his debut race. Watch for now.

6

#1A Judge Carr

Returns to MVR after 2 big races at Mountaineer. Numbers tower here.

#6 Midnight Shine

Was claimed by Sullivan after many drops down the ladder at Turfway.

#3 Im Just Good

Could be another Gorham charge gearing up for Mich. breds at Hazel.

7

#4 Star Shack

Solid ’15 debut. Closed fast at 6 panels. Hope to have same kick at mile.

#2 Big Bubba

Just missed at this level last out. Could easily been given the win via DQ

#5 Handsome Man

Usually finds a way to hit the board. Not sure if handsome likes mud.

8

#1 Babson

Destroyed maiden claimers here 4-15. New barn keeps Martinez on.

#5 Colorado City

Improved both races here vs better. Obvious threat to top pick today.

#6 Run it Back

Comes to MVR from Florida. Had spotty form there. Fits well with these



LET’S Bet! $50 Budget

Race

Amount

Wager

Horses

Total Cost

4

$0.50

Trifecta

1,3,4/1,3,4/all

$12.00

5

$0.50

Pick 4

6,7/1/1,2,3,4,5/1,5,6/

$15.00

6

$5.00

Exacta

1 with 2,3,6

$15.00

8

$1.00

Superfecta

1/5,6/4,5,6/3,4,5,6/

$8.00

[arw629]

Picks and Bets ($50 allowance per race)
Race 1

Main Contenders
:3:
-pros-chance to be lone speed, Pilares rides 4th time in a row back for connections, slight drop in class-actually fits this condition to a tee, Pilares red hot-won 5 last night at Mountaineer
-cons-does not finish races well

:2:
-pros-class of the field, 20% trainer shipping, should finish well
-cons-lack of speed, 0 for 1 at the distance, where has she been?, questionable work pattern

Rest of field thoughts-
:1: is interesting coming back in 5 days and cutting back in distance-should be in the mix and in with a shot to upset a weak field.
:4:- 2 races in 2015 leave a lot to be desired and you'll have to go back to 2013 to find races that fit here....I don't see it
:5:-2015 debut after an 0 for 12 2014....showed speed at presque isle last fall that would make her dangerous here ....2 starts at MVR leave much to be desired....not sure what to make of the trainer scratch march 23rd against 5000 nw4cl....has a shot in here but the price will be too short for me

Bets-$30 double 2 with 5
-$10 double 1,3 with 5


Race 2
Field looks pretty even 1-6 but I will take a chance on :5: War Chancellor as my top pick for Zielinski despite less than average layoff and shipper numbers.....None would surprise here

Bets- $7 pick 3---5 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6
- $1 pick 3----1,2,3,5,6 with 4 with 1
-$2 pick 3 -----5 with 4 with 2

Race 3
Hoping the :4:s last race was not a fluke against weaker....a repeat would make this one very tough to beat

Bets - $8 pick 3 ---4 with 1-6 with 7
- $2 pick 3----4 with 1 with 7

Race 4
Race looks wide open and can make a solid case for the entire field....Maybe the :1: can take this field start to finish off the 3 month layoff but nothing would surprise

Bets - $1 pick 3----1-6 with 7 with 1,3,5,6
- $6 pick 3- 1 with 7 with 1,3,5,6
- $0.50 pick 3- 1,2,5,6 with 7 with 1

Race 5
The trainer of the first timers have poor winning percentages with first time starters and the :1:,:2:,:5: seemed over matched leaving :6: and :7:....:6: looks the speed but doesn't finish particularly well....I'm confident if the :7: gets out of the gate well this gelding will get the job done on a dry track

Bets $0.50 pick 4---7 with 1,3,5,6 with 1-7 with 1,2,3,4,5
($70...$20 over budget but could be worth it)

Race 6
:1::3::5::6: look like they all have an equal shot in here IMO....I give a slight nod to the :1: cutting back in distance but would like a lot more if the :1a: was not scratched

Bets---I will most likely not bet this race unless :1::3::5: or :6: is a price over 6-1...in that case a win bet would be in line

Race 7
Talk about a crap shoot....I can't rule any out and would be doing myself a disservice if I left any of them off my pick 4 ticket

Bets- $10 win bets on anything over 10-1 in this field

Race 8
Again....the theme these last 3 races is parity....I left the 6 and 7 off my pick 4 ticket...i hope that doesn't cost me a nice payoff....if I'm still alive in the pick 4 to this point maybe ill hedge my bet with a bet on 6 and 7?


Thoughts on the card...I think that the last 3 races were the toughest to find a winner....i think the most likely winner is Pommette in the 3rd and Norte Chico in the 5th......I took a stance with War Chancellor in the second that could pay off nicely....I live locally and the weather as of 11:15 looks clear and the fingers are crossed...good luck all