Superfecta 10% profit...

[ribjig]

...that's what this scientific paper suggests?:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.06535.pdf

Can anyone dumb it down to layman's terms?
I see a formula, I don't see how to apply it to picks...
Thanks in advance!

[Some_One]

My alma mater, however I don't remember Racing Handicapping 101 as a possible course to take. Effectively it's just they created an odds line using certain factors and based on the wins odds, when they were perceived to had a wager they bet it based on Kelly. They hit one big ticket which was used to justify their conclusion of advantage in a limited sample size.

[Robert Fischer]

...that's what this scientific paper suggests?:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.06535.pdf

Can anyone dumb it down to layman's terms?
I see a formula, I don't see how to apply it to picks...
Thanks in advance!

It looks like a fun exercise if you were taking that type of math or statistics.
Also is always neat when there is a paper involving horse racing.

They seem to be trying to 'optimize' near-random superfecta wagering, by using the public odds and some other metrics that are correlated to try to maximize the probable outcome (but not capable of handicapping to a profitable edge). They appear to be forming an expected result from the percentages, and then looking at the time that would be expected to show those results using a kelly criterion wager size.
(I don't know if that means excluding longer-shot combinations or exactly what that would lean toward).
What they call OPT+ (which is one of their main points here) seems to be adding a few more horses to the wager, when the standard model of a/ab/abc/abcd(or whatever) shows an expected return over time that is too low for the 'optimized' constraints. This 'coverage' costs a bit more, but statistically should lead to some more frequent wins. The debate of pure overlays vs. some added coverage is a basic issue that any semi-serious bettor/investor should have an opinion on.

They haven't discovered how to turn the game into your personal ATM machine, but there are probably some basic principles that they are using, where if you sat down and broke them down, that you would find that you in fact do (or should) have an opinion on their validity, if you play low% wagers (like superfecta or pick6...), and if you were described these basic principles in layman's terms.