Charlestown, Making a profit, Whales, Sasquatch, and other Myths

[TraderX]

Seriously, did anyone really think Shared Belief would really run or finish the race? As someone who bets favorites nearly exclusively for my living, this race smelled horribly from the beginning! Granted, I don't bet Charlestown, but I do still enjoy watching great races.

Oddly, I spotted a bit more nonsense with "Downtown Allen" in the 5th race, before the race went off. Charlestown is a bit dishonest for my tastes.

Now allow me to rant for a moment, something I do not like to do, once I get started though----oh boy!

If you are a truly a very serious favorite bettor, there were only two horses that should have been bet at CT yesterday. Race 10 "Control Stake". A complete novice could have spotted that, it was a real gift. Race 13 "Comeonletsplay", both won fairly easily.

I had bigger fish to fry at Aqueduct, but a bumbling bonehead could have easily spotted those two plays.

Always remember, handicapping will reward you often enough to keep you coming back to the well for a drink, it's all great fun and intrigue. It will never begin to pay any serious bills for you. The hobby part is all fantastic fun, if you can afford it.

Should you decide to spend your whole life and "possibly" become a very talented "elite" handicapper, your edge will always be tiny, perhaps your ROI will be 10-15%. Once you become "elite" you will realize that you "do" in fact have a small edge over the game. Then you will also be forced to "endure" huge drawdowns on your bankroll. while waiting for your edge to earn you a decent profit.

Some people enjoy this process, as some also enjoy the school of hard knocks and bragging rights. Your ultimate reward--- shear brain power has cast you into the handicapping elite, and you will now be forever "rewarded" with a tiny edge and tiny profits----bravo!

When your bets are being being made to actually pay for your monthly bills, then you best begin to "follow" the money. Like most things in life, if you follow the money, it will take you to places that will allow you to begin to see "real" answers.

Why would anyone bet a race unless you absolutely knew that that the trainer was truthfully attempting to win, and "fully expected" to win? At most tracks there are one or two of these brain dead easy races each day. I scratch my head and seriously wonder why anyone would bet on any other races, but then, I am not a gambler.

My living is based on these race, for what it is worth to you handicappers and gambling types. I read comments about how hard it is to "beat" the races. I am always astounded by these comments. It is not hard to grind out a decent middle class living, for the very patient invesor. Can you "ultimately" be happy betting one or two races each day? Only you can answer this question.

It only becomes "truly" difficult when introduce handicapping or gambling into this equation. Honestly, that's the hard truth. Perhaps you may not wish to hear it, that does not change the fact that these words are truthful.

I have to admit it bothers me to see so many people flail wildly when the easy answer is right before their very eyes. This assumes of course, you "really do" actually want to make a profit each month, and not just gamble away your hard earned money.

I am rambling, good night guys.

PS--- (For the active posters, can we please talk about "whales" more often. It always makes me giggle and belly laugh, and laughing is good for the soul)

When I begin to see serious here posters here talk about "whales" then I realize that folks with "no clue" are giving bad advice to the susceptible and even more clueless, that my friends is a sad state of affairs for everyone. Still the Whale talk is always makes me laugh hard. Keep it coming!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Perhaps you should have posted such a strong opinion PRIOR to the race being run.

They weren't trying with SB? Okay.

[Tom]

Yeah, GOD went there to lose too. :rolleyes:

[DeltaLover]

Seriously, did anyone really think Shared Belief would really run or finish the race? As someone who bets favorites nearly exclusively for my living, this race smelled horribly from the beginning!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Wow! You must be some kind of a real genius.. Where have you been hidden until today? Still, is nice that you finally decided to reveal your top handicapping talent, that not only made it obvious to you that SB had no shot but also allows you to show a profit betting exclusively on favourites ( :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: )

Besides that, it is good that you try to express this kind of opinions, some time before the race is ran, otherwise you better keep quite and keep on betting your favourites :eek: :eek:

[TraderX]

I am no genius gentlemen, not even close. I am simply stating the smart money was very-very far away from Shared Belief. For heavens sake, I am not trying to upset guys that bet on the horse.

[Robert Fischer]

Should you decide to spend your whole life and "possibly" become a very talented "elite" handicapper, your edge will always be tiny, perhaps your ROI will be 10-15%.

10-15% is tremendous, and you will soon be wealthy as your bankroll gains exponentially.


PS--- (For the active posters, can we please talk about "whales" more often. It always makes me giggle and belly laugh, and laughing is good for the soul)

When I begin to see serious here posters here talk about "whales" then I realize that folks with "no clue" are giving bad advice to the susceptible and even more clueless, that my friends is a sad state of affairs for everyone. Still the Whale talk is always makes me laugh hard. Keep it coming!

If some people have an ROI of 10-15% , or if superior players (such as yourself) are making 10-15% look like a tiny edge, - then why wouldn't some of them look for large pools and extend into multi-race wagers and become a whale?

[Relwob Owner]

Seriously, did anyone really think Shared Belief would really run or finish the race? As someone who bets favorites nearly exclusively for my living, this race smelled horribly from the beginning! Granted, I don't bet Charlestown, but I do still enjoy watching great races.

Oddly, I spotted a bit more nonsense with "Downtown Allen" in the 5th race, before the race went off. Charlestown is a bit dishonest for my tastes.

Now allow me to rant for a moment, something I do not like to do, once I get started though----oh boy!

If you are a truly a very serious favorite bettor, there were only two horses that should have been bet at CT yesterday. Race 10 "Control Stake". A complete novice could have spotted that, it was a real gift. Race 13 "Comeonletsplay", both won fairly easily.

I had bigger fish to fry at Aqueduct, but a bumbling bonehead could have easily spotted those two plays.

Always remember, handicapping will reward you often enough to keep you coming back to the well for a drink, it's all great fun and intrigue. It will never begin to pay any serious bills for you. The hobby part is all fantastic fun, if you can afford it.

Should you decide to spend your whole life and "possibly" become a very talented "elite" handicapper, your edge will always be tiny, perhaps your ROI will be 10-15%. Once you become "elite" you will realize that you "do" in fact have a small edge over the game. Then you will also be forced to "endure" huge drawdowns on your bankroll. while waiting for your edge to earn you a decent profit.

Some people enjoy this process, as some also enjoy the school of hard knocks and bragging rights. Your ultimate reward--- shear brain power has cast you into the handicapping elite, and you will now be forever "rewarded" with a tiny edge and tiny profits----bravo!

When your bets are being being made to actually pay for your monthly bills, then you best begin to "follow" the money. Like most things in life, if you follow the money, it will take you to places that will allow you to begin to see "real" answers.

Why would anyone bet a race unless you absolutely knew that that the trainer was truthfully attempting to win, and "fully expected" to win? At most tracks there are one or two of these brain dead easy races each day. I scratch my head and seriously wonder why anyone would bet on any other races, but then, I am not a gambler.

My living is based on these race, for what it is worth to you handicappers and gambling types. I read comments about how hard it is to "beat" the races. I am always astounded by these comments. It is not hard to grind out a decent middle class living, for the very patient invesor. Can you "ultimately" be happy betting one or two races each day? Only you can answer this question.

It only becomes "truly" difficult when introduce handicapping or gambling into this equation. Honestly, that's the hard truth. Perhaps you may not wish to hear it, that does not change the fact that these words are truthful.

I have to admit it bothers me to see so many people flail wildly when the easy answer is right before their very eyes. This assumes of course, you "really do" actually want to make a profit each month, and not just gamble away your hard earned money.

I am rambling, good night guys.

PS--- (For the active posters, can we please talk about "whales" more often. It always makes me giggle and belly laugh, and laughing is good for the soul)

When I begin to see serious here posters here talk about "whales" then I realize that folks with "no clue" are giving bad advice to the susceptible and even more clueless, that my friends is a sad state of affairs for everyone. Still the Whale talk is always makes me laugh hard. Keep it coming!


It seems as if SRU may have a twin.......

[Saratoga_Mike]

I am no genius gentlemen, not even close. I am simply stating the smart money was very-very far away from Shared Belief. For heavens sake, I am not trying to upset guys that bet on the horse.

I didn't even bet the race. I don't bet 1/9 shots, but I never would have predicted PRIOR to the race SB would NOT finish. Did you also predict BB would not finish the Belmont? Actually that's somewhat more plausible given his problems, but still quite outlandish.

I'm not questioning your betting style or ROI, just that you're making a crazy claim (i.e., SB wouldn't finish) AFTER the race.

[lamboguy]

10-15% is tremendous, and you will soon be wealthy as your bankroll gains exponentially.



If some people have an ROI of 10-15% , or if superior players (such as yourself) are making 10-15% look like a tiny edge, - then why wouldn't some of them look for large pools and extend into multi-race wagers and become a whale?
wealthy? he will be in the Fortune 100 in no time with that type of ROI

[SandyW]

If Shared Belief was not in the race, Moreno would have been 2/5, so why not take Moreno at 7/1 and get the big value horse in the race.
Moreno = Speed at the bullring, easy bet.
Even if Shared Belief finishes the race, does he catch a speed horse like Moreno at this track??

[thaskalos]

I am no genius gentlemen, not even close. I am simply stating the smart money was very-very far away from Shared Belief. For heavens sake, I am not trying to upset guys that bet on the horse.
Say...aren't you the same guy who told us a while ago in another thread that you push more money through the betting windows than any other player that you've ever heard of...including Andy Beyer? And now you confess to us that you only bet one or two races a day?

Whom do you think you are kidding, friend?

[Saratoga_Mike]

If Shared Belief was not in the race, Moreno would have been 2/5, so why not take Moreno at 7/1 and get the big value horse in the race.
Moreno = Speed at the bullring, easy bet.

Because bets were required prior to the running of the race.

TradeX also predicted Niatross would go over the rail at Saratoga Harness - that was an easy call. :rolleyes:

[SandyW]

Because bets were required prior to the running of the race.

TradeX also predicted Niatross would go over the rail at Saratoga Harness - that was an easy call. :rolleyes:

There was quite a bit of money being bet on Moreno under the radar, just look at how short the prices were in the other pools in the race.

[Saratoga_Mike]

There was quite a bit of money being bet on Moreno under the radar, just look at how short the prices were in the other pools in the race.

I don't doubt that for a second. One could easily construct a case against SB (as many on here did prior to the race). I'm saying it's absurd to say it was knowable that SB would not finish the race prior to the running of the race.

[chadk66]

who the hell is dumb enough to bet a horse at 1-9 when it's his first trip out of his home state, the winner from last year is there, he hasn't ran on a bull ring or around three turns, and moreno is in the race? I'm no handicapper but even I'm not dumb enough to do that:D

[Saratoga_Mike]

Hindsight is very powerful.

[traynor]

If someone is only looking for 10-15% ROI, more than a few would be willing to give them triple that amount to book their action. Maybe even quadruple.

Don't know the difference between ROI and POI? And still betting? Now THAT is a scary thought.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I might sound ignorant or mathematically challenged, but when one is betting favorites, one would need to win a vast majority of them with very few losses to even make a profit. To make 10-15% on favorites seems impossible without the help of inside information.

Trader X:
My question happens to be were all these wagers the same amount and the same pool (i.e. Win/Place/Show) or did you play exotic wagers keying the favorites?

[castaway01]

Say...aren't you the same guy who told us a while ago in another thread that you push more money through the betting windows than any other player that you've ever heard of...including Andy Beyer? And now you confess to us that you only bet one or two races a day?

Whom do you think you are kidding, friend?

Hey, you weren't supposed to remember that...

[Rutgers]

It seems as if SRU may have a twin.......


.…right down to the same “over use” and “misuse” of quotation marks.

[Relwob Owner]

.…right down to the same “over use” and “misuse” of quotation marks.

You "made my night" mentioning that, as I "was wondering" if anyone else was "driven crazy" by it.....not sure if it is just pure ignorance on his/her part or if it is yet another sad attempt to get a reaction!

[Stillriledup]

Perhaps you should have posted such a strong opinion PRIOR to the race being run.

They weren't trying with SB? Okay.

Why? Are you in the business of blindly betting or listening to posted opinions from posters you don't know?

[TraderX]

Make no mistake my friend, I am absolutely the same guy. I have been doing this since 1982 while still in high school. Then betting all through my years at Villanova University until I graduated. It was not until 1993 that my fortunes changed through no doing of my own, and most assuredly not my handicapping skills. I was betting nearly $50 per race and breaking even, sometimes I actually made money! I was convinced that I was a handicapping genius.

Here are the truhtful facts---Beyer doesn't bet squat any longer. In his heyday-- he would almost never bet more than 1k per race. Keep in mind, Andy was for the most part a pure gambler. Andy was never known for investing. Beyer was a very lucky gambler when unadultrated speed was largely unknown to the masses. Now of course gamblers love to celebrate that fact. They think they can accomplish the same thing, finding or knowing something that the public does not already know. What perhaps is the goal? Maybe make $50,000 per year the races? That was good money a very long time ago.

While we are on the subject of discrediting myself, many people have been spouting out advice here for many years. The bulk of it is truly, horrifyingly bad advice, from obviously struggling long time frustrated losers.

Does your speed, pace, class, form, cycle, etc, figure wildly differ from the the publics? Most likely not. How do you expect to make a living from this nonsense? Simple questions to ask yourself. Do you depend on betting for your entire income? Is your betting paying your bills?

I fully understand that you really want to believe in your heart that handicapping works on silly stupid four legged imbecile animals. At times it surely will (if they are having a good day)---but you cannot count on it. Someone "please" tell me that I am wrong?

Often, the truth is painful--I know! Ask yourself a very simple question--If you knew the stable connections were betting heavily on their own horse, and they fully expected a win------would you also bet?

I tell you in good faith gentleman. follow the money.

***Now lets get back to the insults***

[Stillriledup]

Thanks for the refreshing posts, i love this kind of "style" of posting, keep up the great work X man! :ThmbUp:

[chadk66]

yea many of those thoughts were thoughts I have as a non-bettor quite frequently.

[JustRalph]

You "made my night" mentioning that, as I "was wondering" if anyone else was "driven crazy" by it.....not sure if it is just pure ignorance on his/her part or if it is yet another sad attempt to get a reaction!

Hey, I do that for fun sometimes......not anymore :bang:

[jk3521]

Seems like Trader X is a hit and run poster. No comebacks from the comments made about his statements.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Why? Are you in the business of blindly betting or listening to posted opinions from posters you don't know?

It's about credibility ... never mind, you wouldn't understand

[Kybred]

"silly, stupid, four legged, imbecile animals"...(you forgot to add with silly, stupid, two legged, imbecile animals driving them)...Hit the nail on the head IMHO and I love it!

[PaceAdvantage]

TraderX isn't SRU...

Funny thing...when I started reading this thread, I thought it was TrifectaMike posting...don't ask me why...their names aren't very similar... :lol:

Now I feel better that it wasn't TrifectaMike...I actually respect TM...

[illinoisbred]

Follow the money? I don't know..I mostly see grooms and hotwalkers walking to work...not driving Porsches..mostly from track provided housing..not stepping out from a nice 2 story in Arlington Heights.Il.. Don't see many trainers behind the wheel of a Lexus..mostly older,battered pick-up trucks with over 100,000 miles on them. Oh and their watches..well they end with an X..Timex..not Rolex.

[burnsy]

who the hell is dumb enough to bet a horse at 1-9 when it's his first trip out of his home state, the winner from last year is there, he hasn't ran on a bull ring or around three turns, and moreno is in the race? I'm no handicapper but even I'm not dumb enough to do that:D

I wondered the same thing.....who in their right mind bets a 1-9 in a horse race? I'm glad people do because I always place a show bet in those situations. You and Sandy W. are the ones making sense in this God awful thread. The only hindsight you need is all the times these horses fail to run. I look for races like this just to bet someone else to show. Plus, anyone with handicapping knowledge at all knows Moreno will be winging it on a bull ring like that. These bets are no brainers, no foresight or hindsight required...just the simplest of math. Bridge jumpers? Make show bet. Some bonehead that put 40 k to show has to cash a lot of 20 cent tickets in the future without losing again to make up for that move. If people want to make money like that, buy a CD or invest it. IMO, 1-9 on a horse race? Just pull out your wallet out and piss on it, the money might just grow better from that..... :rolleyes: Betting 1-9 (in the show pool) is not a handicapper, its a fan or someone being greedy and just asking to get burned. Hindsight? Like we've never seen this song and dance before? How do I automatically know to make a show bet then? People claim to be good at math but they seem to never understand pari-mutuel wagering which is the most important math of making a ticket. Rule 1, make your ticket different than what the majority has. a. The majority usually loses, 2 out of 3 times. b. The pool is so much sweeter when its divided up between less people. c. The "fans" always forget and are just one "super horse" from doing it over again. .... Burnsys law.

People are creatures of habit, it will happen again in the near future.....I'm no Nostradamus to figure that out either.........just a studier of social, human behavior. When people say "can't lose" don't walk, run to play anything else........When its chalk like that you can be wrong 10 times, right once, still make money and not be the guy that just lost a boat load on a show bet to make 20- cents. :bang:

[Inner Dirt]

With Granny who made $2 win bets on her favorite color or a hunch play on a name, long gone playing the slots or lotto and Beyer figs being in the Racing Form for over 20 years I would think grinding out a profit betting favorites to win only would be near impossible. On top of those other two things the take out per race is over double what it is in a pick 3 wager. I look at horses that pay 3-2 now that would have been 3-1 before Beyer figs showed up and Granny was putting $2 on every horse that had a jockey wearing blue silks. Hard to make a profit when the price of your winners is cut over 35%.

I am pretty outgoing and when I was first regularly going to the track at 18 in 1979, I had already read Picking Winners and engaged as many older people at the track as I could to learn as much as possible. I was kind of amazed how many novices of all ages I encountered, many people didn't have more than a program. I didn't talk to any of them but they were obvious, screaming when they cashed a ticket that paid $5 to show on their $2 bet.

Fast forward 30 years when I last went to an OTB or Track (It was been all TVG for me lately) Even though I considered myself one of the most studious of the crowd with my personally made pace figures scribbled all over the Racing Form, I rarely heard a novice say they were betting a shipper from Illinois because that is where their mother was born. Everybody was paying attention to some or all of the important handicapping factors. No longer is there uneducated money in the pools.

Not saying you can't still find an edge but they are harder to fish out. My favorite is the lone front runner on a track kind to speed that has a Beyer fig 10 points or more lower than the top figs, they can still pay a healthy sum to win, those are about the only ones I will win bet any more. Like almost every honest person that has written a book on horse betting in the last 25 years my years where I turned a good profit came from one or a few big scores, not long streaks of small positive returns.

[OCF]

Seems like Trader X is a hit and run poster. No comebacks from the comments made about his statements.

That would be one way to look at it, another way would be that he doesn't have to have the last word. I could admire that, regardless of the content of his posts.

[Stillriledup]

.…right down to the same “over use” and “misuse” of quotation marks.
u9_kahA_wQo

[TraderX]

"I don't doubt that for a second. One could easily construct a case against SB (as many on here did prior to the race). I'm saying it's absurd to say it was knowable that SB would not finish the race prior to the running of the race."


It was very easily identifiable. Smart money was not bet on it. All I was saying.

[TraderX]

"who the hell is dumb enough to bet a horse at 1-9 when it's his first trip out of his home state, the winner from last year is there, he hasn't ran on a bull ring or around three turns, and moreno is in the race? I'm no handicapper but even I'm not dumb enough to do that:D"


Simple logic like this will take you far my friend. Simple logic and following the money has won races for many decades. If you like to slop on the money everyday, it's not for you.

[porchy44]

Seriously, did anyone really think Shared Belief would really run or finish the race?


I myself, many times have heard people say before a race that a heavy bet favorite may finish off the board because "he is not bet right". Many times they are right. I have never heard these same people say a heavy bet favorite will not finish the race.

With that said I have heard people say after a race they knew the horse would not even finish the race. I think I will call your post "negative redboarding"

[Stillriledup]

"I don't doubt that for a second. One could easily construct a case against SB (as many on here did prior to the race). I'm saying it's absurd to say it was knowable that SB would not finish the race prior to the running of the race."


It was very easily identifiable. Smart money was not bet on it. All I was saying.

Could you explain what you were seeing? Wasn't the horse 1-9? Was it the exacta grid that told the tale?

[Elliott Sidewater]

I think this may actually be Gasper Moschera, writing under a pseudonym.

[Zaf]

Game On Dude was beaten here too, hope Shared Belief will be OK.

Z