Lemon Drop Husker
04-19-2015, 12:52 PM
Yeah, I know, we have 2 weeks to go, and nobody knows who the real entrants will be....
With that said, I just want to put my thoughts out there. Likely for just myself. I'll use the DRF rankings as my guide.
1. American Pharoah: Likely favorite, and deservedly so. Horse has done nothing wrong other than lead at more splits than most. Fast and, did I say fast?
2. Dortmund: The Baffert double is extremely impressive. This is a massive colt that has also done nothing wrong. Will roll into Louisville 6-0. Undefeated horses at this level are always tough to beat, especially when they have won impressively at 9F.
3. Carpe Diem: Seems kind of hidden right now, but impressive in his own right. Could we possibly get double digit odds on this one? Numbers aren't great, but he whips the field every time. What more do you want?
4. Materality: Is he Curlin, or is he not? Either way, can he win against the Apollo curse? Monster player in my opinion. Think he could reverse the "curse" of his pops/jockey letting the 2005 Derby get away.
5. Mubtaahij: We haven't really seen a serious contender from across the pond in....... forever out of the UAE Derby. This one could be the real deal. Unlike others, he has the breeding to suggest he could do well come Derby day. Everybody and their dog will be watching his works, and De Kok is as good a trainer as anybody on the planet.
6. Firing Line: Dortmund is his nemesis. This horse fires every single time and runs his heart out. Not sure he can rate, or handle traffic since he never has. Great looking colt though. Visually impressive. Very impressed with his Sunland effort, but that was against nobody. I think Blue Chip finished 2nd that day behind him.
7. Frosted: Got a more than serious breathing problem taken care of, and he then spanked the field in the Wood. Lots of solid horsemen like this guy. I can't take him lightly. He could show up huge in 2 weeks.
8. International Star: Yeah, yeah, I now, he hasn't beat anybody with a pulse. However, this guy shows up, closes every time, and has some serious speed of foot when need be. His numbers are awful, and his breeding isn't "Regal". Not a likely winner, but a serious exotics player. I'm kind of tired of betting against this guy to be honest.
9. Upstart: A lot of people like this one, and you'll maybe get 20/1 or better. He was pretty well whipped by Materiality last out, and wasn't all that impressive in the Fountain of Youth as far as I'm concerned. I see him finishing well up the track in here. His late pace is unexciting.
10. Bolo: Interesting colt. A likely grass horse in the future that can get it cranked up late. Have to pass on all tickets. Notch or two below in my opinion.
11. Danzig Moon: He keeps coming.., and coming. Just ran a :58 work over the Churchill surface. I've had this one pegged since February. It will be tough for me to get off of him on every wager on the board. He is a true bust or fail horse in Louisville. You'll be rewarded handsomely, or fail miserably. He'll be 20/1 or more. Worth the risk IMO, or if you don't like, an easy wager against.
12. El Kabeir: I've stated my opinion on this future 7F or Miler numerous times. Non contender. 50/1 would be an underlay in my opinion.
13. Far Right: Simply not good enough. Not sure what people see in this one. He could clunk up in exotics. Complete pass for me.
14. Itsaknockout: This horse has talent. Not sure he is ready to pop on Derby day. Could be a Belmont monster.
15. Stanford: Part of the pace. Has to be on the lead to win in this field? No effing way. Pass.
16. Tencendur: He finally showed up in the Wood. Talented horse that is possibly peaking at the right time. Likely not a win contender, but can be an exotics booster. Can't dismiss from almost any wager.
17. War Story: Maybe the most hyped horse in the field without the results to show for them. We've seen this way too many times for me to back in any fashion.
18. Mr. Z: I hope they don't run him in here. Actually I do, because he is a complete cross off.
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho: I have a futures bet on him. :lol: He has to get the lead to be anywhere near productive, and that is questionable at best. Can't bet for many reasons.
20. Madefromlucky: I like this horse. He gets in he is a must bet in clunking up the exotics, and maybe even finishing 2nd. Monster talent, and getting better right now. Scary horse.
21. Keen Ice: Deep closer. Not a fan of his speed of foot. Challenged by pace. Bottom of exotics.
22. Frammento: I actually hope he doesn't get in because I don't know what to do with him. I've been a fan, but I'm not sure he is ready to do this just yet while he could also absolutely bust out and be a Commanding Curve. Scary horse in all exotics.
23. Bold Conquest: 50/1. And he should be.
24. Metaboss: Deep closer on AW, but was whipped at Turfway with a solid trip. Unbettable if he gets in.
25. Firespike: Hey, he beat Metaboss. And that should cover it.
With that said, I just want to put my thoughts out there. Likely for just myself. I'll use the DRF rankings as my guide.
1. American Pharoah: Likely favorite, and deservedly so. Horse has done nothing wrong other than lead at more splits than most. Fast and, did I say fast?
2. Dortmund: The Baffert double is extremely impressive. This is a massive colt that has also done nothing wrong. Will roll into Louisville 6-0. Undefeated horses at this level are always tough to beat, especially when they have won impressively at 9F.
3. Carpe Diem: Seems kind of hidden right now, but impressive in his own right. Could we possibly get double digit odds on this one? Numbers aren't great, but he whips the field every time. What more do you want?
4. Materality: Is he Curlin, or is he not? Either way, can he win against the Apollo curse? Monster player in my opinion. Think he could reverse the "curse" of his pops/jockey letting the 2005 Derby get away.
5. Mubtaahij: We haven't really seen a serious contender from across the pond in....... forever out of the UAE Derby. This one could be the real deal. Unlike others, he has the breeding to suggest he could do well come Derby day. Everybody and their dog will be watching his works, and De Kok is as good a trainer as anybody on the planet.
6. Firing Line: Dortmund is his nemesis. This horse fires every single time and runs his heart out. Not sure he can rate, or handle traffic since he never has. Great looking colt though. Visually impressive. Very impressed with his Sunland effort, but that was against nobody. I think Blue Chip finished 2nd that day behind him.
7. Frosted: Got a more than serious breathing problem taken care of, and he then spanked the field in the Wood. Lots of solid horsemen like this guy. I can't take him lightly. He could show up huge in 2 weeks.
8. International Star: Yeah, yeah, I now, he hasn't beat anybody with a pulse. However, this guy shows up, closes every time, and has some serious speed of foot when need be. His numbers are awful, and his breeding isn't "Regal". Not a likely winner, but a serious exotics player. I'm kind of tired of betting against this guy to be honest.
9. Upstart: A lot of people like this one, and you'll maybe get 20/1 or better. He was pretty well whipped by Materiality last out, and wasn't all that impressive in the Fountain of Youth as far as I'm concerned. I see him finishing well up the track in here. His late pace is unexciting.
10. Bolo: Interesting colt. A likely grass horse in the future that can get it cranked up late. Have to pass on all tickets. Notch or two below in my opinion.
11. Danzig Moon: He keeps coming.., and coming. Just ran a :58 work over the Churchill surface. I've had this one pegged since February. It will be tough for me to get off of him on every wager on the board. He is a true bust or fail horse in Louisville. You'll be rewarded handsomely, or fail miserably. He'll be 20/1 or more. Worth the risk IMO, or if you don't like, an easy wager against.
12. El Kabeir: I've stated my opinion on this future 7F or Miler numerous times. Non contender. 50/1 would be an underlay in my opinion.
13. Far Right: Simply not good enough. Not sure what people see in this one. He could clunk up in exotics. Complete pass for me.
14. Itsaknockout: This horse has talent. Not sure he is ready to pop on Derby day. Could be a Belmont monster.
15. Stanford: Part of the pace. Has to be on the lead to win in this field? No effing way. Pass.
16. Tencendur: He finally showed up in the Wood. Talented horse that is possibly peaking at the right time. Likely not a win contender, but can be an exotics booster. Can't dismiss from almost any wager.
17. War Story: Maybe the most hyped horse in the field without the results to show for them. We've seen this way too many times for me to back in any fashion.
18. Mr. Z: I hope they don't run him in here. Actually I do, because he is a complete cross off.
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho: I have a futures bet on him. :lol: He has to get the lead to be anywhere near productive, and that is questionable at best. Can't bet for many reasons.
20. Madefromlucky: I like this horse. He gets in he is a must bet in clunking up the exotics, and maybe even finishing 2nd. Monster talent, and getting better right now. Scary horse.
21. Keen Ice: Deep closer. Not a fan of his speed of foot. Challenged by pace. Bottom of exotics.
22. Frammento: I actually hope he doesn't get in because I don't know what to do with him. I've been a fan, but I'm not sure he is ready to do this just yet while he could also absolutely bust out and be a Commanding Curve. Scary horse in all exotics.
23. Bold Conquest: 50/1. And he should be.
24. Metaboss: Deep closer on AW, but was whipped at Turfway with a solid trip. Unbettable if he gets in.
25. Firespike: Hey, he beat Metaboss. And that should cover it.