Milt Gaines 2015: alive & well??

[ribjig]

Read 2009 thread about toteboard betting a la Milt Gaines.
Anyone currently betting based ONLY on "smart money" detection?
If willing, any comments, results, caveats, etc. appreciated.
Using orthodox Milt Gaines method? Or modified 2015 version?
Are there now software programs that detect these kinds of
bets in real time by being connected to track toteboards?

Thanks in advance.

[ribjig]

:2: nd try: :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:

is anyone a toteboard handicapping purist?
betting only based on toteboard clues,
especially "smart money" clues?
Willing to elaborate...?

Any comments on this?
http://www.amazon.com/The-Logical-Choice-Toteboard-Handicapping/dp/1484141822

[Robert Goren]

I found interesting that Amazon would offer a kindle edition of a horse racing book published in 1981 that probably did not sell that well when it came out. Somebody had to format it for them.

[johnhenry81]

Ribjig,

Just wanted to let you know that there is Milt Gaines "toteboard is alive and well" alumnus out there. I loved that book as a kid in the 80's and referenced it till the pages were worn to sawdust.

Although i had fun with the method and celebrated many textbook winners, I was never close to a ROI wash. I do believe that the method was profitable thu the 70's as the author suggests, but the simulcasting, computer betting, exotics etc etc. changed everything.

[ribjig]

JH81 & all,

Thanks for response! :jump:
Did you keep data? Looking back,
if you had narrowed down all of the
schemes Milt Gaines offered, would
your results been + ROI? In other
words, were some whaps collectively
better than others?

I ordered the book yesterday for $17...

My betting history: strictly DrZ 1988-90.
Attended: LAD, OP, FG, AQ, BEL, MED
$1M churned, 1% loss :bang:
No betting since then.

Novice question about computer betting:
is it now possible to see entire tote board
live for all major tracks? if yes, are there
programs that detect Milt-Gaines-type
whaps & immediately react with bet?
Or would best way be go to LV books?
I've been watching TVG but live odds
disappear about 1 min before gates
open -- does that happen LV books too?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

IMHO, there are many horseplayers that still handicap the tote action, often as the major if not sole factor for determining selections. I've seen this during tournament play, as well as from "regulars" at the track, OTBs and Vegas race books. The theory is that ALL known information on a horse's chances are reflected on the tote - similar to the idea that all known information about a company is reflected by the stock's price.

This is often true, but there are horses like Bear Sterns - well supported at the windows, and failing miserably in the race. Over the years, the analysis needed for tracking tote changes has changed dramatically. Prior to simulcasting and ADWs, a player could sit in the stands and keep an eye on the tote (and maybe the exacta pools), while everyone had to bet through a teller. The flows of money were easier to track, with the first flash and periodic "hits" of larger wagers easier to detect. Nowadays, it's not uncommon for 30 or more percent of a pool's wagers to come in on the last flash.

I've got a spiral bound copy of Mr. Gaines' book, which I believe I picked up at the Gambler's Book store in Vegas years ago. His methods are dated, and key off the differences in odds to the MORNING LINE, so proceed with caution. Some of the underlying concepts are still valid, but to be successful today it requires a very keen eye indeed to just rely on the tote. Win odds, differences in percentages between the win and place/show pools, exacta/quinella/double pools, and tracking all that is not simple. Here's one popular tool for assisting with that:

http://homebased2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm

As for betting today, yes the odds on any one track's feed may "disappear" from the video feed shortly before the race start, on TVG and in Vegas. It helps to have an ADW account that refreshes the pools frequently. And only the overseas tracks like Australia and Hong Kong allow access to the pools in all races on the card. In North America, we only get access to the tote numbers for current race (except the win odds for the Derby).

I analyze the tote, but use other factors as well. Gone are the days when an early bet by certain stables was a clear "go" signal, though early money can sometimes still be a tip off. Rather than rely on a comparison to morning line odds, the goal today would be to establish a "true odds" line, and go from there. But that's a whole 'nother can of worms....

[johnhenry81]

Ribjig,

I had data back then, (since discarded) With people now placing/ cancelling bets online, and either past posting or late batch posting from the off track betting, you cant tell if a "whap" or a late confirmation as the books label it is real or coincidence.

But as I said, there's no doubt that method worked before the electronicage.

[Pensacola Pete]

Any comments on this?
http://www.amazon.com/The-Logical-Choice-Toteboard-Handicapping/dp/1484141822

Of little use 30 years ago and worse now that 80% of the money comes in in the last minute.