How much "ammo" you plan on using for the Derby?

[Stoleitbreezing]

I've been reading many of Triple Crown Threads and noticed quite a few horseplayers are planning to spread deeply into many of their tickets. Not much has been discussed about the multiple race wagers yet! I can't imagine how much money some of these tickets will cost. I plan on spending 200-300 hundred dollars tops on the derby. My question is how much "ammo" are you spending on the derby? What is your favorite derby wager and why? What formula or structure do you have for your bets that tend to be the most successful?

I plan on doing 100 dollar prime win bet
My other derby money will go towards the multiple race wagers, exactas, and tris.

I'm curious to see how others approach their bets for the derby.

[nads1420]

ill probably spend about 300-350 on the day with the expectation to lose it all so that even if i end with 200 im a happy guy.

this derby i plan on placing like two 30 or 40 dollar win bets on horses odds 12-1 and up maybe Frosted, Firing Line, or Mutaahij

then im gonna take the big 3 AP, Dort, CD and do an exacta over a bunch of horses i like but not over AP, Dort, CD

then will do a tri with those 3 over those 3 over a bunch of the other horses i like

and a few random supers

[BlueChip@DRF]

5 Straight $20 Win bets with one primary ladder (20/40/80)
No one will be below 15-1 on these


Two $5 Exacta Keys
Two favorites over the three longest shots: F1 over A,B,C ; F2 over A,B,C

Oaks/Derby Double: for fun
Oaks/Turf/Derby Pick-3

A single $2 Pick-4 (3-3-3-5)

One number and one name each of my nieces and nephew picks out and I will box them $1 EX/TRI. They get to keep it if it wins.

Action bets on undercard day of the Derby:
$10 Win on Keeneland graduates that are over 10-1.
Box all graduates in $2 EXs/TRIs
There are 0 to 3 graduates every race on that day.

[ArlJim78]

My year revolves around the derby. No horizontal plays, mainly tri's and supers, some exactas. I'll play around with the structure and weighting over and over for days on end until I'm satisfied. Last year I sent in about $1,900, I'll probably be in the range of 3-4 K this year.

[BlueChip@DRF]

My year revolves around the derby. No horizontal plays, mainly tri's and supers, some exactas. I'll play around with the structure and weighting over and over for days on end until I'm satisfied. Last year I sent in about $1,900, I'll probably be in the range of 3-4 K this year.

Can I borrow a couple of dollars from you?

[DRIVEWAY]

My year revolves around the derby. No horizontal plays, mainly tri's and supers, some exactas. I'll play around with the structure and weighting over and over for days on end until I'm satisfied. Last year I sent in about $1,900, I'll probably be in the range of 3-4 K this year.

Is the increased play a function of conviction or a matter of hedging?

It will be a sad outcome if the winner has Baffert for a trainer. His top two in the money makes for short exacta and trifecta payoffs. The only way to cash big is for a monster price to show up in the super. But with the big payoffs of recent years, many people spread in the win pool knocking down the true longshots below 40-1.

A very good year for a strong contrarian opinion. But think too long and ultimately think wrong. My tendency this year maybe to focus on the Oaks-Derby Double.

Best of luck and turn that 3-4K into 20+K.

[Stoleitbreezing]

My year revolves around the derby. No horizontal plays, mainly tri's and supers, some exactas. I'll play around with the structure and weighting over and over for days on end until I'm satisfied. Last year I sent in about $1,900, I'll probably be in the range of 3-4 K this year.

I'm available for adoption Jim. Lol.

Are they mostly keys or will you be constructing big part wheels for high noms?

[SecretAgentMan]

My year revolves around the derby. No horizontal plays, mainly tri's and supers, some exactas. I'll play around with the structure and weighting over and over for days on end until I'm satisfied. Last year I sent in about $1,900, I'll probably be in the range of 3-4 K this year.



Yes sir .......gotta invest some money to make money!

[Inner Dirt]

Probably $0. Churchill Downs has never been kind to me and too many good horses get beat by bad trips. Went to the Oaks and Derby in person in 1999 and didn't cash a ticket. Most were pick 3's it seemed I had a lot of horses make big moves on the far turn to look like a sure winner then die inside the 1/16 pole. Of the triple crown races the Preakness is by far my favorite to bet.

[tanner12oz]

Probably around $500 for the day. $200-300 on the race itself the rest for oaks derby double and undercard pick 4

[nads1420]

My year revolves around the derby. No horizontal plays, mainly tri's and supers, some exactas. I'll play around with the structure and weighting over and over for days on end until I'm satisfied. Last year I sent in about $1,900, I'll probably be in the range of 3-4 K this year.


ever hit the super? and if you do hit the super how do you cash that? do they just hand you 20k thru the window straight cash?

[SecretAgentMan]

ever hit the super? and if you do hit the super how do you cash that? do they just hand you 20k thru the window straight cash?



In 2002, a guy I know hit the superfecta in the Belmont stakes......he & one of his friends each put $1,500 together, a total of $3,000 investment & boxed a bunch of horses.......they hit it & won $145,000.......horse that won paid $142......Sarava was his name.

The OTB paid him about 80k in cash & the rest in a check......they told him if he wanted all in cash, he would have to come back on Monday.

[Secondbest]

Considering the field and all the angles how much is a 20 horse super box?

[nads1420]

Considering the field and all the angles how much is a 20 horse super box?

$116,280.00

[Secondbest]

$116,280.00
Is that for $2?

[nads1420]

Is that for $2?


1 dollar

[ArlJim78]

ever hit the super? and if you do hit the super how do you cash that? do they just hand you 20k thru the window straight cash?
Last year I had the tri and super multiple times. The wagers were placed online. They take 25% off the top and credit your account with the rest.

[SecretAgentMan]

Only thing I ever box is Exactas.......if I play tris & supers, I like to key 1 to 3 horses on top, with 5 to 7 in 2nd, 3rd & 4th.......way too expensive to box them.

[SecretAgentMan]

Last year I had the tri and super multiple times. The wagers were placed online. They take 25% off the top and credit your account with the rest.



It really is a shame that horses & the lottery tax us do much off our winnings......would be nice if they gave us back 25% of our losses at the end of the year as well, its only fair.

[Tall One]

I'm available for adoption Jim. Lol.

Are they mostly keys or will you be constructing big part wheels for high noms?


Jim had a pretty good day with the exotics last Derby.. :ThmbUp:

[ArlJim78]

Is the increased play a function of conviction or a matter of hedging?

It will be a sad outcome if the winner has Baffert for a trainer. His top two in the money makes for short exacta and trifecta payoffs. The only way to cash big is for a monster price to show up in the super. But with the big payoffs of recent years, many people spread in the win pool knocking down the true longshots below 40-1.

A very good year for a strong contrarian opinion. But think too long and ultimately think wrong. My tendency this year maybe to focus on the Oaks-Derby Double.

Best of luck and turn that 3-4K into 20+K.
I've had a good run last four years with the derby and become more confident each year with my selection method. I'm not a win pool player. I spread a fair amount but usually focus on two key horses. I rank my opinions and really hammer my prime plays to the extent that if I'm right I get rewarded big time. Each year I've raised my sites.
I also do a bit of hedging against horses that concern me, but my hedging is designed only to recover my bankroll or make a small profit should one of my key plays not win.

I find myself spending more and more time each year determining how to play the race. I go through numerous iterations and normally the final version is produced early derby morning!

Of course a chalky outcome would be a downer but the history of the race shows that it only takes a little disruption in the finish order to spike a nice payout.

[nads1420]

I've had a good run last four years with the derby and become more confident each year with my selection method. I'm not a win pool player. I spread a fair amount but usually focus on two key horses. I rank my opinions and really hammer my prime plays to the extent that if I'm right I get rewarded big time. Each year I've raised my sites.
I also do a bit of hedging against horses that concern me, but my hedging is designed only to recover my bankroll or make a small profit should one of my key plays not win.

I find myself spending more and more time each year determining how to play the race. I go through numerous iterations and normally the final version is produced early derby morning!

Of course a chalky outcome would be a downer but the history of the race shows that it only takes a little disruption in the finish order to spike a nice payout.



who you like at this point for this year?

[ultracapper]

Been doing the same thing for years. I take all the winners of the big 4 G1s, SA derby, Wood, FLA Derby, and whatever they call the other one now, I still call it the Bluegrass, and find a 5th horse that either ran well in one of those or a winner from one of the other graded preps, do a $2 5 horse exacta box and a $1 5 horse tri box. $100. I'm way up on the Kentucky Derby lifetime.

[Ocala Mike]

This is to have $1 on every possible super combination. If you eliminate only 4 horses who couldn't possibly finish as high as fourth, you can have $1 on it for "only" $43,680.

Not for me, though - I like to bet a little to win a lot, so I will probably invest around $100 into the race, mostly on tris/exactas/Oaks-Derby DD.

[DeltaLover]

I'm curious to see how others approach their bets for the derby.

I would had been happy if I had been passing the Derby every year! In a period of over twenty years, I managed to hit it only twice (Real Quite X Victory Gallop and Big Brown X Eight Bells) something that results to a really miserable ROI (my Preakness Record is even worse)..

I have arrived to the conclusion that the Derby is a very bad betting race that should be avoided as much as possible. Surely this is easier to say than do, since I have also learned that the urge to bet the Derby is impossible to avoid and the best I can do is to try to at least not get crazy and limit my bets within a reasonable size.

As far as strategy, I will try to detect the most competitive of the prep races and if its winner is in the Derby, I will decide if I will give credit to him for a possible repeat or even improve. Ideally, I would prefer to find more negatives than positives to him as in most of the other obvious contenders, something that will shift my interest to some of the more obscure contenders.

In a race like the Derby, I would try to invest somewhere within the range of $300 - $400, looking for a horse that will crash his career top by a huge margin. I will try to hook it in some form of a horizontal exotic, something like a double or a pick three, ideally combining with another high value spot. I will only bet my pick only in the top two, spots, leaving at least one of the obvious horses completely out of my tickets....

From the handicapping scope of view, I will be more inclined to pick a horse, who will present an obvious flaw for the judgement of a classical handicapper. It might be a horse who does not have started as a two year old or has a speedy pedigree or anything else that will make average bettors reluctant to bet on him...

[spiketoo]

Going to Vegas. 1K to win on Mubtaahij @ 12-1 or better then parlay it on Pacquiao.

Or not...

[BlueChip@DRF]

Going to Vegas. 1K to win on Mubtaahij @ 12-1 or better then parlay it on Pacquiao.

Or not...

Who is Mayweather betting on? I need help eliminating some contenders.

[SecretAgentMan]

Who is Mayweather betting on? I need help eliminating some contenders.



Since Mayweather is getting paid the highest payout ever in boxing, he will probably place $1 million on 5 horses each, & if he wins, post the ticket, haha!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Since Mayweather is getting paid the highest payout ever in boxing, he will probably place $1 million on 5 horses each, & if he wins, post the ticket, haha!

I hope so! Anti-bet the guy who bet on the Broncos in the Super Bowl.

[ArlJim78]

who you like at this point for this year?
still finalizing things but I'm nearly positive that I'll be using American Pharaoh and Frosted as keys, with more weight on AP.

[Thunder Gulch]

It kind of depends on how I'm doing with the weekend, and for the horizontals, how much I like the other races.

Low side $500, less than half in the win pool and quite a bit on trifectas. If I"m ahead for the weekend, I'll dabble with skinny supers or press the trifectas. The payouts on those are historically fantastic if you can figure out the suck up horses like Commanding Curve who pass tired runners at the end to get a piece. I like the Pick 3 & Pick 4 sequences, but how much I bet does depend on the surrounding races and whether I can find value in them. That goes for that Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick 3 that I love.

[Stoleitbreezing]

still finalizing things but I'm nearly positive that I'll be using American Pharaoh and Frosted as keys, with more weight on AP.

I've been leaning that way as well and also plan on using International Star in my boxes and keys. Over the past week, Frosted has sort of grown on me win candidate and I probably will bet a little heavier on him then on IS.

[BlueChip@DRF]

If I was being really stingy and following three simple old rules I laid out for myself back in 2005, I would end up with one basic EX and TRI box:

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Materiality

[BlueChip@DRF]

If I was being really stingy and following three simple old rules I laid out for myself back in 2005, I would end up with one basic EX and TRI box:

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Materiality

In the past it would have selected:

2014 California Chrome
2013 (none)
2012 Bodemeister
2011 (none)
2010 (none)
2009 (none)
2008 Big Brown
2007 (none)
2006 Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined
2005 (none)

[Capper Al]

Might do some exacta/trifecta combinations because the payouts are so good. Otherwise, it's Derby day. We'll be going to a Derby Party hosted by a local restaurant and drinking mint Juleps.