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View Full Version : Santa Anita Thursday 4/16/15


Poindexter
04-16-2015, 03:08 PM
A quick overview of todays card.

1st) 4 horse field. No thanks.

2nd) Fairly tough race here. Most interesting to me is Seeking Shamrocks a very quick early need the lead type who has been setting quick fractions but has been unable to shake loose setting those very fast fraction. He now stretches out so perhaps he can relax a bit on the lead and prove touch to catch. The bad news is that Yana who beat him last time is not likely to let him get too far away. I would have to get a lot better than morning line 5/2 to play Seeking Shamrocks straight(maybe 7/2 plus). A short field with a lot of depth, if no value on Shamrocks, once again see no reason to get involved.

3rd) Sort of an open 6 horse field here. I do like a horse and that is #4 Commute. If John White is right, it looks like the 3 will probably get a lot of support and he certainly looks beatable(beaten favorite in 5 of his 6 races). Rock Shandy obviously ran big in the Sham, not so big against Dortmund and Firing Line. Still must be highly respected at this level and is the horse to beat. But Commute looks interesting to me here..Bobbled after the break to lose position early and was rushed 3wd ct to reach contention. Stalked One Lucky Dane after that, making a strong push on the far turn and I felt kept to task fairly well considering One Lucky Dane left him in his wake. He just got nailed for the palce at the wire. If he breaks well I think he has a good chance of making the running here and I think has a good chance of taking these wire to wire. He should be a lot braver in front.

4th) I think the morning line has the top 3 pegged pretty accurately. I think the interesting value play in here is #8 Miserable Blue. Was well bet in his debut to 8/5, got into a heated dueld and faltered the last 1/8th. In his next race he was completely outgunned in a very fast early race. Now he stretches out. The bad news is with Dixie Dame also stretching out he is likely going to have to rate. Showed no ability to do so sprinting, we will see if he is able to routing. I would need at least 8-1 to bet him(he is morning line 10-1).

5th) Obviously Peacnik is the horse to beat, but will offer no value. To me the clear 2nd choice is Papa Paisely, dropping from 16 where he has been racing well and in a high percentage barn. He is 6-1 on the morning line, which I would be surprised to see, but would take 9/2 plus on him. Rounding out the contention would be the 1-4-5(in no particular order). ''

6th) I think morning line and highly likely heavy favorite Midnight Storm is vunlnerable. I never get excited about a horse that puts in a huge effort loose on a slow pace and that is exactly what this guy did. He obviously is a fairly nice horse, but the value in my eyes is in beating him. With the scratch of Are you Kiddin me the pace scenario changes. Cheif Lion stretches out so he should be invovled early, Super Abilility will obviously be on the lead and Midnight Storm should be close up. Aside from that this race is loaded with deep closers. I think the trip horse would be someone who can sit around 4th 3 to 4 lengths off of the pace and only one horse fits that bill and that is #10 Cummings Road. Now he was quite competive in Canada last year vs similar. He has run okay, but not great in his 2 starts this year. But a lot of positives here. A very strong Barn. As mentioned the likely trip horse. One of the few good turf riders on this circuit. 3rd start off the layoff for a barn that is 23% in that scenario. 12-1 on the morning line, might even go higher. My money goes right here. Aside from him this race is pretty wide open so hard to get involved int the exactas/tris.....

7th) This is a very wide open race. I will just throw up my line if that interests anyone.
1) 25 lineout
2) 25
3) 6
4) 8
5) 10
6) 5
7) 5
8) 15
9) 9/2

A sort of interesting longshot would be #8 Parlimentarian(morning line 20-1).
Now I made him 15-1 so I need about 30-1+ or see him very live on the board to get involved with him. He was a racehorse a year ago. Hit hard times last summer at Santa Anita and was laid off until March 28th. He was working a storm coming into the race but was very dead on the board that day. But it was a tough race for a comeback as there were like 8 really fast need the lead types in that field, so certainly do not want to hold the pop and stop against him. Like the fact he worked twice since. I wish he was in an easier pace scenario, as the 6-7-9 can all roll early, but all 3 can rate as well which makes this race even trickier. Add the and 5 to the mix and the pace can come up very heated. Just a tough race to handicap.

8th) yet another tough race. Race seems a little overloaded with S types, so I would look for a horse that figures close up early. On first glance it looks like Ace Deuce could be your lone speed but #9 Generous Don stretching out can spoil that party. But even so, Ace Deuce can sit just off him like he did in his last race. Watching the replay I thought it was quite a solid effort by Ace Deuce. His figures are as good as anybody in here except for first turfer Book Thiry Four. I make Ace Deuce the horse to beat and will likely bet him at 3-1 +. Air Nashoba figures for a soid trip and your morning line favorite is probably the biggest danger. Book thirty four has the best figures but is a deep closer, Oneil is not my favorite turf trainer and Trujillo is winning at a 6% clip on the grass. There are a lot of other dangers as well so in my book not a great trifecta type race(cannot really eliminate anyone).

Good luck.

whodoyoulike
04-16-2015, 04:17 PM
I like your analysis of the races. I wish more people would follow your example when posting their selections.

Have you ever considered including your expected time of the races whenever you make a selection, as a reference point to gauge how the race played whether it was faster or slower?

In the 4th, I like the :6: Twinkle Toes, looks like a router who can run in 98 +/-. I don't bet MC's any longer but, at 3/1 ... I prefer to watch or ignore them.

In the 5th, :9: Papa's Paisley could run 6f in 71 +/- at this level, again at 3/1 or more looks good.

I didn't look at any of the other races. I hope you don't mind me including my two cents.

Poindexter
04-16-2015, 08:27 PM
I like your analysis of the races. I wish more people would follow your example when posting their selections.

Have you ever considered including your expected time of the races whenever you make a selection, as a reference point to gauge how the race played whether it was faster or slower?

In the 4th, I like the :6: Twinkle Toes, looks like a router who can run in 98 +/-. I don't bet MC's any longer but, at 3/1 ... I prefer to watch or ignore them.

In the 5th, :9: Papa's Paisley could run 6f in 71 +/- at this level, again at 3/1 or more looks good.

I didn't look at any of the other races. I hope you don't mind me including my two cents.

I am with you. I would love 20 people a day to jump in with why they like or do not like horses. That is how you learn. So anyone else is welcome to dive into my threads anytime they want. I am usually not prepared to write up the races in time to post, which is why this is my first thoroughbred post. Regarding your question, I honestly do not use a pure speed figure anymore. I am currently using Bris(the price is right :) ) and I love a lot of the stats they provide. I do make pace adjustments to their speed figures when applicable, but ultimately I average their speed figures with the average of their RR and CR to come up with one figure. I am happy with it. When I was using Beyers I would be overly concerned with whether the 93 is actually a 93 and not really a 88 or 85 and I was too speed focused. Now I incorporate everything into one figure(which I think is a more accurate reflection of a horses ability then just a speed figure and focus on the mechanics of the race(who will be where and how fast and slow the pace will be....) and not worry about whether a figure was accurate or not. So to answer your question, no. I basically handicap the race, bet the race, see what happened and the end of the day I try to figure out if and where I went wrong. Then on to the next day, whenever that may be. I just do this for fun and really enjoy it. If anyone reading thinks I was wrong about something, I would actually appreciate them pointing it out even after the race. I am cool with it. Redboarding doesn't bother me.

whodoyoulike
04-16-2015, 09:12 PM
I just happened to run across your thread. Since, I've been away from this site the last few days, I'll try to join in when I can. I was thinking that providing the final time of the race would be helpful for you in analyzing your own race results.

I consider myself a pace handicapper (not exactly a speed handicapper). When I handicap a race, I generally try to visualize how the race will be run i.e., I actually attempt to predict every horse's fractional times and then compare them to the horse's running style. Btw, I utilize other things.

I'm only suggesting final times because providing all fractional times may be revealing a little more than I want (which would be the pace scenario).

Again, I think you did a very good analyses of the races especially when to bet or not. And, I hope others take you up on your offer to join in. I agree this is how one learns since every race is a new puzzle.