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Heisenberg
04-16-2015, 02:20 AM
Hey guys, new member here but long time reader and horse racing fan.

So here I am, I'm one of the 12 left in the Twin Spires Showdown. I dodged a lot of bullets to get here, and I'm trying to dodge 1 last one at Churchill for a piece of the $1,000,000.

I've been on Dortmund all year and watched him run twice in person at Santa Anita, beautiful horse that big guy is. But still not 100% on him as my final pick.

I'd love to hear some opinions from you guys if you had to pick 1 horse to simply hit the board in the Derby for a probable six figure score, who would you take?

Learned a lot on this board by the way throughout the preps. Thank-you :ThmbUp:

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2015, 03:05 AM
Hey guys, new member here but long time reader and horse racing fan.

So here I am, I'm one of the 12 left in the Twin Spires Showdown. I dodged a lot of bullets to get here, and I'm trying to dodge 1 last one at Churchill for a piece of the $1,000,000.

I've been on Dortmund all year and watched him run twice in person at Santa Anita, beautiful horse that big guy is. But still not 100% on him as my final pick.

I'd love to hear some opinions from you guys if you had to pick 1 horse to simply hit the board in the Derby for a probable six figure score, who would you take?

Learned a lot on this board by the way throughout the preps. Thank-you :ThmbUp:

Damn, just read up on it, and didn't even know it was available. Serious congrats.

What are the final rules? I'm sure that would help a bunch of people you are asking for advice, because I doubt SHOW brings it home now.

Heisenberg
04-16-2015, 03:32 AM
Damn, just read up on it, and didn't even know it was available. Serious congrats.

What are the final rules? I'm sure that would help a bunch of people you are asking for advice, because I doubt SHOW brings it home now.

Actually yea, a show bet does bring it home. So for the 12 of us left, we've all bet a $20 show bet in the last 19 prep races to move on each race and won those bets. I think the contest started with 1500+ players.

There is $1,000,000 total on the line, and remarkably for the first time in the history of the contest there is not only 1 player left, but 12 of us. Nobody has ever made it this far or won before.

http://www.twinspires.com/1-million-road-kentucky-derby-showdown

The total potential guaranteed prize pool is $1,000,000, so it probably will be shared amongst a few of us if everyone bets chalk and chalk comes in. But you have to bet a show bet and have that show bet come through in the Derby to get a piece of the million in the final race of the contest.

lamboguy
04-16-2015, 06:39 AM
Hey guys, new member here but long time reader and horse racing fan.

So here I am, I'm one of the 12 left in the Twin Spires Showdown. I dodged a lot of bullets to get here, and I'm trying to dodge 1 last one at Churchill for a piece of the $1,000,000.

I've been on Dortmund all year and watched him run twice in person at Santa Anita, beautiful horse that big guy is. But still not 100% on him as my final pick.

I'd love to hear some opinions from you guys if you had to pick 1 horse to simply hit the board in the Derby for a probable six figure score, who would you take?

Learned a lot on this board by the way throughout the preps. Thank-you :ThmbUp:
congratulations on your success up till now. i wonder how long before the race that you have to have your pick in. if i had to pick a horse now i would probably go with your pick or the Pletcher horse that won the Florida Derby. but would not want to be stuck with either one of them before i see their final work, and most important how they look in the paddock and on the track

lots of luck, i will be rooting for you

raybo
04-16-2015, 06:48 AM
If you've won 19 show bets in a row, why ask us? Nice performance!

By the way, I like your pick! But, he is a big one, and that can cause problems with a 20 horse field unless he somehow finds some clean running room not too far outside.

Good luck!!

Capper Al
04-16-2015, 07:16 AM
Hey guys, new member here but long time reader and horse racing fan.

So here I am, I'm one of the 12 left in the Twin Spires Showdown. I dodged a lot of bullets to get here, and I'm trying to dodge 1 last one at Churchill for a piece of the $1,000,000.

I've been on Dortmund all year and watched him run twice in person at Santa Anita, beautiful horse that big guy is. But still not 100% on him as my final pick.

I'd love to hear some opinions from you guys if you had to pick 1 horse to simply hit the board in the Derby for a probable six figure score, who would you take?

Learned a lot on this board by the way throughout the preps. Thank-you :ThmbUp:

Congrats!

nads1420
04-16-2015, 09:52 AM
good luck man!!! any why ask us id rather ask you who you like... :jump:

PaceAdvantage
04-16-2015, 11:10 AM
This is awesome...congrats! I assume you have until the pools close to make your $20 Derby show bet...nerve wracking, considering there have been times in the past where it's been difficult to get a bet in on Derby day on some of these ADWs...they tend to have technical difficulties at the worst possible time on big days...so if I were you, I'd probably be looking to get my bet in on the early side of things...

SecretAgentMan
04-16-2015, 11:17 AM
The last thing you want from any of us is a losing horse.....just keep picking the horses as you have been, you're at this point by yourself? Or is someone helping you along?

Heisenberg
04-16-2015, 11:19 AM
Thanks guys, I have until race time to get my pick in on TS. I'm thinking the workout figures and draw will weigh heavy into the final decision. Either way it will be the biggest sweat of my life!

ArlJim78
04-16-2015, 11:45 AM
If it were me I'd go with either American Pharoah or Frosted, but then again I've never picked 19 show bets in a row before. Best of Luck.

Stoleitbreezing
04-16-2015, 12:01 PM
If it were me I'd go with either American Pharoah or Frosted, but then again I've never picked 19 show bets in a row before. Best of Luck.

I would pick AP, Frosted or International Star. Good luck though. Usually your first thought is the correct one.

BlueChip@DRF
04-16-2015, 12:03 PM
I hope you parlayed those Show bets. :)

minethatbird08
04-16-2015, 12:12 PM
You are doing great on your own, just keep it rolling.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2015, 07:48 PM
Thanks guys, I have until race time to get my pick in on TS. I'm thinking the workout figures and draw will weigh heavy into the final decision. Either way it will be the biggest sweat of my life!

Do what you are doing.

Take any information from us clowns as just that "information", cause you are obviously "in" it right now and doing something right.

Shut everybody out, and pull the trigger on what you know and has worked thus far.

I'm rooting for you man.:ThmbUp:

nads1420
04-16-2015, 07:56 PM
yeah let us know who u pick so i can root for you

castaway01
04-16-2015, 08:03 PM
Thanks guys, I have until race time to get my pick in on TS. I'm thinking the workout figures and draw will weigh heavy into the final decision. Either way it will be the biggest sweat of my life!

Congratulations on 19 show bets in a row, that's awesome! I think you have the right idea. Pick out a few contenders you really like, then wait for the draw and see how horses are working out this week. You don't have to worry about looking for a price, so at least that helps, and I would concentrate on the top few betting choices. Go get that million!

SecretAgentMan
04-16-2015, 08:46 PM
I guess that stopped giving out the $100,000 free bet on a KD horse to wager a win bet on after the guy bet 100k to win on Super Saver, lol.......he lowered the odds down a lot on him too by placing that bet.

sandpit
04-16-2015, 10:01 PM
I echo many others here who say congrats and don't change what you're doing now considering how well it's worked this far.

As puzzling as the Derby can be (huge field, 1 1/4-miles, etc.), your basic principles should still apply. To me, the one advantage we have as handicappers is that we get to see most all of the horses train every day for a week or two leading up to the race, as well as get tons of tidbits of info that you don't normally get.

I'm a big believer that a horse who trains exceptional at CD will run a big race, and it's helped me cash some nice tickets. Additionally, I'm also a believer in the entire Derby karma thing. For example, in 2006 I liked Brother Derek, but he and his trainer both had a bunch of issues all week long, so I jumped ship to Barbaro, who was training spectacularly. Watch for the little signs of a horse and his connections having the best possible week.

The show pick is interesting to me, because when I start formulating my Derby bet, it begins with which horse I think has the best possible chance of finishing in the top three, but not necessarily win. I usually end up keying him in all three spots in the tri. Not perfect by any means, but gives me a good starting point to cut through the confusion of a 20-horse field.

I'm pulling for you to bring home the seven-figure prize :jump:

davew
04-16-2015, 10:54 PM
congrats. this is the 2nd year I started but stopped after losing 2 in the first 7.

So much to consider - taking entire pool or sharing with many. I would probably go with one of BAFFERTS, but would wait until see post parade and warm-ups.

boys at tosconova
04-16-2015, 11:12 PM
AP or bust.

Tall One
04-16-2015, 11:19 PM
And somebody told me recently you couldn't make any money show betting.. ;)

Good stuff, OP.. :ThmbUp:

Skanoochies
04-17-2015, 12:54 AM
Beware of post positions also. I`m not sure of in the money horses, but as far as winners are concerned, posts 1 to 4 have been terrible over the years. GOOD LUCK MAN!! :ThmbUp:

P.S. Maybe someone here has stats on itm horses from inside posts.

raybo
04-17-2015, 02:44 AM
Beware of post positions also. I`m not sure of in the money horses, but as far as winners are concerned, posts 1 to 4 have been terrible over the years. GOOD LUCK MAN!! :ThmbUp:

P.S. Maybe someone here has stats on itm horses from inside posts.

Post positions, for some horses, is extremely important. Gate ability, preferred running style/early velocities, versus those inside and outside them, can have dramatic affects on certain horses.

If I was in the OP's situation, I would look for the one horse that shows up every single race, never gets himself in trouble, is comfortable inside and outside and in traffic, and always runs to the wire, regardless of the lengths behind the leaders. Who that is, I don't know yet, but those are the types of performances I must make before I construct my superfecta ticket(s).

Heisenberg
04-17-2015, 02:51 PM
You guys are awesome, thanks for the kind words and support. The second day of May is literally going to be one of the most exciting days of my life as a gambler. :ThmbUp:

Props to Twinspires as well. They called me yesterday and comped me Derby tickets. Class Act!

raybo
04-17-2015, 03:19 PM
You guys are awesome, thanks for the kind words and support. The second day of May is literally going to be one of the most exciting days of my life as a gambler. :ThmbUp:

Props to Twinspires as well. They called me yesterday and comped me Derby tickets. Class Act!

Wow! Derby tickets alone make the contest a winner, win or lose. Have a great time there!!

SecretAgentMan
04-17-2015, 03:31 PM
Take a survey like Dreyfuss in the movie "Let it Ride", go around asking everyone what they like, & then just draw a line thru the horses that the public at Churchill like the most, & finally bet on the horse that the public leasys like at Churchill, lmao......that would be hilarious if you did that & it worked.

Stoleitbreezing
04-17-2015, 03:36 PM
You guys are awesome, thanks for the kind words and support. The second day of May is literally going to be one of the most exciting days of my life as a gambler. :ThmbUp:

Props to Twinspires as well. They called me yesterday and comped me Derby tickets. Class Act!

That's awesome. Free roll now.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the derby and see how the favorites do. I'm sure a majority of the 12 will try to play it "safe" and pick one of the "chalks" as the object is only to show instead of win. It will be easier said then done in a 20 horse field though. If I was in the same shoes I'd probably just go with American Pharoah as my show horse. I think he's going to be there at the head of the lane provided, he's not given a bad post. Classier then most I think he hits the tri at least. Best of luck.

SecretAgentMan
04-17-2015, 03:51 PM
I will say one thing tho......most of these finaln12 finalists will be on AP or Dortmund ......I think both of those horses will have a lot of people tearing their tickets after the race

If I was in your position, which I'm not cause Penn Gaming won't allow us in the contest in my area, I would look for a horse thats consistintently in the money.......not winning every race, but is always grinding it out no matter what.

Much Mach Man was a decent size wager for show in 2011 because he was so consistent 2nd or 3rd.....

I absolutely love betting to show in the KD, because you're guaranteed to at least double your money on a favorite, & quadruple your money on a long shot.

Stoleitbreezing
04-17-2015, 04:11 PM
I will say one thing tho......most of these finaln12 finalists will be on AP or Dortmund ......I think both of those horses will have a lot of people tearing their tickets after the race

If I was in your position, which I'm not cause Penn Gaming won't allow us in the contest in my area, I would look for a horse thats consistintently in the money.......not winning every race, but is always grinding it out no matter what.

Much Mach Man was a decent size wager for show in 2011 because he was so consistent 2nd or 3rd.....

I absolutely love betting to show in the KD, because you're guaranteed to at least double your money on a favorite, & quadruple your money on a long shot.

That's what makes this contest interesting thing as you only need to get show. I'm thinking there may be a few horses in the field that would be a better show wager then one of the favorites.

Stoleitbreezing
04-17-2015, 04:40 PM
just located an article about the contest. Annuity or the 50% haircut?

http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Dozen_TwinSpires_com_Players_to_Make_Derby_Show_Be t_for_1_million_123

SecretAgentMan
04-17-2015, 04:55 PM
just located an article about the contest. Annuity or the 50% haircut?

http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Dozen_TwinSpires_com_Players_to_Make_Derby_Show_Be t_for_1_million_123



40 yeah annuity? So if say 10 players win, each will get $100,000, & if you choose the 40 year annuity, you will receive $2,500 each year for 40 years.....is this a joke?

I would ask for $50,000 right away........always take thequick money & invest......

Stoleitbreezing
04-17-2015, 05:10 PM
40 yeah annuity? So if say 10 players win, each will get $100,000, & if you choose the 40 year annuity, you will receive $2,500 each year for 40 years.....is this a joke?

I would ask for $50,000 right away........always take thequick money & invest......

Take the lump sum for sure. lol.

Huddy Goodjob
04-17-2015, 06:19 PM
Beware of post positions also. I`m not sure of in the money horses, but as far as winners are concerned, posts 1 to 4 have been terrible over the years. GOOD LUCK MAN!! :ThmbUp:

P.S. Maybe someone here has stats on itm horses from inside posts.

I have no life....hahaha.

Huddy Goodjob
04-17-2015, 06:38 PM
Beware of post positions also. I`m not sure of in the money horses, but as far as winners are concerned, posts 1 to 4 have been terrible over the years. GOOD LUCK MAN!! :ThmbUp:

P.S. Maybe someone here has stats on itm horses from inside posts.

Meant to attach this to my last post.

Huddy Goodjob
04-17-2015, 07:00 PM
post 5, since 1994...in top 3, 9 times.