1retired
04-15-2015, 09:45 PM
TOMLINSON NUMBERS
TURF
The DRF says “This number rates a horse’s chances for success racing on the turf based on his breeding. When a horse’s turf rating is 280 or higher, it merits further consideration as a horse who could perform particularly well over a grass surface. This number can be particularly helpful the first couple of times over the turf, before the horse’s preference for the turf is otherwise known. Note: in some cases you will see an asterisk next to a Tomlinson turf rating. The asterisk means there has been a limited sample, in terms of offspring of the particular sire running over the surface in question”.
I have some recent examples of the use of this number to produce a winner as follows.
Bravo Charlie won the 5th at Gulfstream on Jan 3 of this year. It was a MSW3 at 1 Mile on the Turf. He had had two previous races, both on the dirt. The horse was coming off a short layoff of 34 days. In his most recent race at 1 1/16 at CD, he had finished 2nd by 3 lengths. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 318 and won at odds of 14.8 to1.
Slope won the 3rd at Fairgrounds on Jan 3 of this year. It was a 30000MdnClmg at About 1 Mile on the Turf. He had only one race back in Sept of the previous year on the turf where he finished 8th by 12 lengths out of 12 horses. He had decent works including a 3F bullet workout 3 days prior to the race. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 324 and won at odds of 10.7 to 1.
Commander King won the 1st at Santa Anita on Feb 28. It was a MSW at 1 1/8 on the Turf. He was coming off a layoff having run his first race in October in a 6F 35000 Mdn Clmg dirt race where he finished 5th by 8 lengths. He had decent works in the interim. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 320 and won at odds of 20.6 to 1.
Question: Is the Tomlinson Turf number cutoff number of 280 about right, too low or too high IN YOUR PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE in producing FTS or 2nd time starter winners on the turf?
TOMLINSON WET TRACK NUMBER
THE DRF SAYS “This number rates a horse’s chances for success on a wet track based on his breeding. When a horse’s mud rating is 320 or higher, it merits further consideration as a horse who could perform particularly well over a wet racetrack. This number can be particularly helpful the first couple of times over a wet surface, before the horse’s preference for the surface is otherwise known.
I don’t have any recent or old examples of winners that were obtained using these numbers and I have no practical experience with using these numbers as part of my handicapping.
Question: Is the Tomlinson Wet Track cutoff number of 320 about right, too low or too high IN YOUR PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE in producing FTS or 2nd time starter winners on wet tracks?
The reason I am asking the question is that I am considering adding these numbers or the more appropriate numbers to my positive form factor lists and to track this idea as a subroutine that might yield a profit.
I use the BRIS and Equibase results charts to track this data and I have few actual DRFs. Can anyone tell me the Tomlinson Turf numbers for each of the following 3 winning FTSs or 2nd time starters on the turf so I can add to the database:
3/21 5th at TAM, Minimambo
3/21 9th at GP, Canadian Flyer
325 10th atGP, Happy's Twins
Is anyone else trying to use the Tomlinson Turf Numbers for FTS or 2nd time starters on the turf? If so, what has your experience been?
1retired
TURF
The DRF says “This number rates a horse’s chances for success racing on the turf based on his breeding. When a horse’s turf rating is 280 or higher, it merits further consideration as a horse who could perform particularly well over a grass surface. This number can be particularly helpful the first couple of times over the turf, before the horse’s preference for the turf is otherwise known. Note: in some cases you will see an asterisk next to a Tomlinson turf rating. The asterisk means there has been a limited sample, in terms of offspring of the particular sire running over the surface in question”.
I have some recent examples of the use of this number to produce a winner as follows.
Bravo Charlie won the 5th at Gulfstream on Jan 3 of this year. It was a MSW3 at 1 Mile on the Turf. He had had two previous races, both on the dirt. The horse was coming off a short layoff of 34 days. In his most recent race at 1 1/16 at CD, he had finished 2nd by 3 lengths. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 318 and won at odds of 14.8 to1.
Slope won the 3rd at Fairgrounds on Jan 3 of this year. It was a 30000MdnClmg at About 1 Mile on the Turf. He had only one race back in Sept of the previous year on the turf where he finished 8th by 12 lengths out of 12 horses. He had decent works including a 3F bullet workout 3 days prior to the race. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 324 and won at odds of 10.7 to 1.
Commander King won the 1st at Santa Anita on Feb 28. It was a MSW at 1 1/8 on the Turf. He was coming off a layoff having run his first race in October in a 6F 35000 Mdn Clmg dirt race where he finished 5th by 8 lengths. He had decent works in the interim. He had a Tomlinson Turf Number of 320 and won at odds of 20.6 to 1.
Question: Is the Tomlinson Turf number cutoff number of 280 about right, too low or too high IN YOUR PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE in producing FTS or 2nd time starter winners on the turf?
TOMLINSON WET TRACK NUMBER
THE DRF SAYS “This number rates a horse’s chances for success on a wet track based on his breeding. When a horse’s mud rating is 320 or higher, it merits further consideration as a horse who could perform particularly well over a wet racetrack. This number can be particularly helpful the first couple of times over a wet surface, before the horse’s preference for the surface is otherwise known.
I don’t have any recent or old examples of winners that were obtained using these numbers and I have no practical experience with using these numbers as part of my handicapping.
Question: Is the Tomlinson Wet Track cutoff number of 320 about right, too low or too high IN YOUR PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE in producing FTS or 2nd time starter winners on wet tracks?
The reason I am asking the question is that I am considering adding these numbers or the more appropriate numbers to my positive form factor lists and to track this idea as a subroutine that might yield a profit.
I use the BRIS and Equibase results charts to track this data and I have few actual DRFs. Can anyone tell me the Tomlinson Turf numbers for each of the following 3 winning FTSs or 2nd time starters on the turf so I can add to the database:
3/21 5th at TAM, Minimambo
3/21 9th at GP, Canadian Flyer
325 10th atGP, Happy's Twins
Is anyone else trying to use the Tomlinson Turf Numbers for FTS or 2nd time starters on the turf? If so, what has your experience been?
1retired