Worst Kentucky Derby Win Wager?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

We are all fully in Derby Fever mode right now as we try to break down the toughest 20 horse field in the world.

As we all look back, we have to look back harshest at our biggest Derby failures, and try our hardest to learn from those lessons.

Who were your biggest flops/not winners that you laid down some solid coin upon to only watch finish out of the winner's circle?

I have a plenty :D:

2014: Intense Holiday
2013: Palace Malice, Normandy Invasion
2010: Dublin, Noble's Promise
2009: Summer Bird
2007: Hard Spun (ran his heart out, that one hurt)
2006: Jazil, Sweetnorthernsaint
2005: Afleet Alex (should be a Triple Crown winner :mad: )
2004: Birdstone, Read The Footnotes
2001: Congaree
2000: More Than Ready

That is far enough...

[BlueChip@DRF]

Sidney's Candy
Bob Black Jack

[Huddy Goodjob]

Afleet Alex...stands as my favorite of all time. To do what he did winning the Belmont after what he went through in the Preakness. Amazing animal. Was so disappointed they retired him so soon.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Sidney's Candy
Bob Black Jack

Wow. I never would have thought in a thousand years you would have had those horses.

Speed burners with your KD rules? I'm calling BS.....:cool:

[menifee]

Monba. Horse finished dead last - was so certain he was going to win. Never forget that horse. Whenever I see one of his offspring, I always laugh.

[PhantomOnTour]

Saarland...and I'd rather not talk about it!
:mad: :blush:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Wow. I never would have thought in a thousand years you would have had those horses.

Speed burners with your KD rules? I'm calling BS.....:cool:

They caused the origin of my rules that I have now. Other than that, I still play the lone E-type sprinter going two turns for the first time.

[nads1420]

2014 - California Chrome
2013 - Revolutionary
2012 - Bodemeister, Union Rags
2011 - Animal Kingdom, ArchArchArch
2010 - Super Saver
2009 - Pinoneerof The Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy - in order on the win bet, exacta, tri, & super - i fn hate mind that bird with a passion. i was so close to a huuuuuge payday
2008 - Big Brown
2007 - Nobiz Like Shobiz
2006 - Lawyer Ron
2005 - i forget - not the winer though, you dont forget that
2004 - Smarty Jones
2003 - watched but no rooting/betting interest, just getting into the sport

[minethatbird08]

Conveyance was my worst bet. In my defense it was only my second KD and I really didn't know a lot. Regardless, I did come out ahead as a had a smaller win bet on Super Saver and really had a huge score with General Quarters in the Woodford a race earlier.

My Derby Bets history (at least my main choices)

2014- Intense Holiday. Probably my worst Derby, only Danza came in on my Tri bet

2013- Orb. Golden Soul ruined tri

2012- I'll Have Another future Bet had at like 28 or 29-1. Put a decent sized show bet on Bodie. Probably my best performance to date. No exotics see below.

2011- Nehro and Mucho Macho Man with a few others in a tri...Uggh. I hit big early on the card and basically went for the tri. My Dog picked Animal Kingdom, go figure. Yes we let our pets "pick" a horse. Crumple up a pieces of paper with a number and throw them in the air; the one they sniff first is their $2 win bet. The two cats have yet to pick a winner; this was the dogs first bet and his only winner.

2010- Conveyance - See top of page

2009- Pioneer of the Nile ATB basically doubled my money. No I did not have minethatbird. It was the first derby I attended and what really got me into the sport.

What I learned so far:
1. Don't take a sprinter in the Derby
2. Bad betting can ruin good handicapping

[f2tornado]

I changed my win bet on Orb to Golden Soul. If only I had simply boxed them. :mad:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Conveyance was my worst bet. In my defense it was only my second KD and I really didn't know a lot. Regardless, I did come out ahead as a had a smaller win bet on Super Saver and really had a huge score with General Quarters in the Woodford a race earlier.

My Derby Bets history (at least my main choices)

2014- Intense Holiday. Probably my worst Derby, only Danza came in on my Tri bet

2013- Orb. Golden Soul ruined tri

2012- I'll Have Another future Bet had at like 28 or 29-1. Put a decent sized show bet on Bodie. Probably my best performance to date. No exotics see below.

2011- Nehro and Mucho Macho Man with a few others in a tri...Uggh. I hit big early on the card and basically went for the tri. My Dog picked Animal Kingdom, go figure. Yes we let our pets "pick" a horse. Crumple up a pieces of paper with a number and throw them in the air; the one they sniff first is their $2 win bet. The two cats have yet to pick a winner; this was the dogs first bet and his only winner.

2010- Conveyance - See top of page

2009- Pioneer of the Nile ATB basically doubled my money. No I did not have minethatbird. It was the first derby I attended and what really got me into the sport.

What I learned so far:
1. Don't take a sprinter in the Derby
2. Bad betting can ruin good handicapping

Great stuff. Thanks for sharing.

I was at that 2009 Derby as well. Friday was awful if I remember, due to the rain and storms all day.

Intense Holiday last year wasn't so intense for us. His quick retirement and statement from connections after the race stunk. Can't predict a horse getting injured during the actual race.

[BlueChip@DRF]

What I learned so far:
1. Don't take a sprinter in the Derby
2. Bad betting can ruin good handicapping

The new points system seems to have eliminated all the true sprinters. So now I guess you are left with Rule #2. :)

[minethatbird08]

Great stuff. Thanks for sharing.

I was at that 2009 Derby as well. Friday was awful if I remember, due to the rain and storms all day.

Intense Holiday last year wasn't so intense for us. His quick retirement and statement from connections after the race stunk. Can't predict a horse getting injured during the actual race.


That Friday was great though with Rachel crushing the Oaks. It was such a wow moment for me at the time. I feel fortunate to experience two very memorable events during my first Oaks/Derby trip.

Thanks for the comments

[minethatbird08]

The new points system seems to have eliminated all the true sprinters. So now I guess you are left with Rule #2. :)

Unfortunately, Rule #2 is proving difficult to master :D

[BlueChip@DRF]

Unfortunately, Rule #2 is proving difficult to master :D

I've mastered bad betting. What's so difficult about that?

[minethatbird08]

I've mastered bad betting. What's so difficult about that?

:D

[JustRalph]

The first year I started playing

Balto Star. 20 bucks across that got burned in the first quarter mile.....I think they ran it in something like 21. :lol:

Can't remember if it was my primary bet......but I do remember how stupid it was. Pletcher was just getting rolling if my memory serves me

[Delta Cone]

Plenty of bad Derby bets, but the one I remember the most was the first Derby I ever bet...

1994: Powis Castle

[SecretAgentMan]

The first year I started playing

Balto Star. 20 bucks across that got burned in the first quarter mile.....I think they ran it in something like 21. :lol:

Can't remember if it was my primary bet......but I do remember how stupid it was. Pletcher was just getting rolling if my memory serves me



That was a great derby for me......loved Monarchos after seeing him win the Fla derby & running a nice 2nd in the Wood to Congaree.

But, although I had the exacta small, which paid big, Invisible Ink cones flying in to nip Congaree by a measley nose for 2nd at 55-1.......& I had a Moarchos 10-1 with a Congatee 7-1 exacta pretty big, grr......pissed me off big time, couldn't stop thinking of Invisible Ink nipping out Congaree by a nose for over a month.

Not only that, but I had a triple, Monarchos with Congaree with all several times, & I can't believe I didn't play Monarch's, with all, with Congaree.

Still a good derby, but could have been so much better, I'm sure everyone has been there.

And yes, that 1st quarter & half was insanely fast!

[Thunder Gulch]

The Deputy in 2000 or whatever year Fu Peg won.

Bet ArchArchArch in 2011, and still believe he would have run huge if not hurt.
Bet Gemologist in 2012, which was just terrible.

[nads1420]

The Deputy in 2000 or whatever year Fu Peg won.

Bet ArchArchArch in 2011, and still believe he would have run huge if not hurt.
Bet Gemologist in 2012, which was just terrible.


I dont think Gemologist has finished the 2012 derby yet... think hes finally coming around the far turn

[BlueChip@DRF]

I dont think Gemologist has finished the 2012 derby yet... think hes finally coming around the far turn

He's that close already?

[FrankieFigs]

I have bet the Derby since 2005. Here is my record of futility....

2005: Sun King (15th)
*2006: Lawyer Ron (12th)
2007: Great Hunter (13th)
2008: Anak Nakal (7th)
2009: Dunkirk (11th)
2010: American Lion (7th)
2011: Mucho Macho Man (3rd)
2012: Daddy Nose Best (10th)
2013: Verrazano (14th)
2014: Ride On Curlin (7th)

*The only saving grace from this list is that I had Lawyer Ron boxed with Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat and Showing Up in the exacta. That payoff ($587) sorta makes me feel a little better.....

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I have bet the Derby since 2005. Here is my record of futility....

2005: Sun King (15th)
*2006: Lawyer Ron (12th)
2007: Great Hunter (13th)
2008: Anak Nakal (7th)
2009: Dunkirk (11th)
2010: American Lion (7th)
2011: Mucho Macho Man (3rd)
2012: Daddy Nose Best (10th)
2013: Verrazano (14th)
2014: Ride On Curlin (7th)

*The only saving grace from this list is that I had Lawyer Ron boxed with Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat and Showing Up in the exacta. That payoff ($587) sorta makes me feel a little better.....

No offense FF, but I do now believe you are required to release your Derby pick in highlights, rainbows, and high end alerts; and available to everybody on this forum. :)

[andtheyreoff]

Since I've been doing this seriously:

2014- Wicked Strong (although I had Chrome in numerous doubles and pick 3s)
2013- Verrazano
2012- Union Rags (could've won the TC with a better ride in the Derby)
2011- Comma to the Top (yes, really)
2010- Noble's Promise
2009- Pioneer of the Nile
2008- Pyro
2007- Scat Daddy
2006- Bob and John
2005- Bandini
2004- Smarty Jones (only winner)

That makes for a record of 11-1-1-0. This year, I hope Dortmund makes it 2-12.

[taxicab]

Easily the three worst I ever made:

Demons Begone :confused:
Zarb's Magic :faint:
Dollar Bill :eek:

[sandpit]

I've been either picking a horse or actually betting on the Derby since 1970, when as a little kid at my parent's Derby party I drew Dust Commmander out of a hat :ThmbUp: I was hooked. :)

Since then, there's been plenty of ups and downs, but here's some of the true head-scratchers or just plain contrarian picks:

1973: Sham
1982: Laser Light
1984: Pine Circle
1987: Cryptoclearance (still my favorite horse name of all time)
1994: Southern Rhythm
1995: Jumron
1996: Unbridled's Song - bar shoe and all
2002: Request for Parole
2005: Afleet Alex (this is after I told my wife in January that Giacomo was my pick. I got off him after that crappy Roger Stein horse finished in front of him in the Santa Anita Derby.

I will say that the past decade or so has been good to me though, with the exception of Mine That Bird, who I couldn't bet on the replay.

[exactatom]

Borrego
Perfect Drift
Steppenwolfer
Regal Ransom

[Tall One]

That was a great derby for me......loved Monarchos after seeing him win the Fla derby & running a nice 2nd in the Wood to Congaree.

But, although I had the exacta small, which paid big, Invisible Ink cones flying in to nip Congaree by a measley nose for 2nd at 55-1.......& I had a Moarchos 10-1 with a Congatee 7-1 exacta pretty big, grr......pissed me off big time, couldn't stop thinking of Invisible Ink nipping out Congaree by a nose for over a month.

Not only that, but I had a triple, Monarchos with Congaree with all several times, & I can't believe I didn't play Monarch's, with all, with Congaree.

Still a good derby, but could have been so much better, I'm sure everyone has been there.

And yes, that 1st quarter & half was insanely fast!


I'm pretty sure we made the all the same plays that Derby, SAM. Still say Congaree won that photo.. :D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I've been either picking a horse or actually betting on the Derby since 1970, when as a little kid at my parent's Derby party I drew Dust Commmander out of a hat :ThmbUp: I was hooked. :)

Since then, there's been plenty of ups and downs, but here's some of the true head-scratchers or just plain contrarian picks:

1973: Sham
1982: Laser Light
1984: Pine Circle
1987: Cryptoclearance (still my favorite horse name of all time)
1994: Southern Rhythm
1995: Jumron
1996: Unbridled's Song - bar shoe and all
2002: Request for Parole
2005: Afleet Alex (this is after I told my wife in January that Giacomo was my pick. I got off him after that crappy Roger Stein horse finished in front of him in the Santa Anita Derby.

I will say that the past decade or so has been good to me though, with the exception of Mine That Bird, who I couldn't bet on the replay.

That is absolutely fantastic.

Hats off to the greatest post on this site. Ever.

[depalma113]

Ten Cents a Shine - Damn, I loved that horse.

[JBmadera]

many bad bets but Arazi in '92 takes the cake. all these years later that one still really stings........ :bang:

[delsully]

:lol: Gemologist :rolleyes:

[burnsy]

I used Gemologist too. But at least he was a decent price and that's where I learned my lesson. In 2005 I keyed Bellamy Road and I was at the Derby. Dumbest derby bet of my life and I have been betting it since about 1978 or so. Not only was that race "bumper cars" but the horse that won paid over 100 and one of my friends had it. Ever since then I will not just put all my eggs on the chalk in that race. Afleet Alex was much the best in all 3 races and got a night mare trip in the derby. The point is that for all the crap people rave about the "perceived" best horse in that race......and the band wagon chalkers will be raving about a few just like they do every year. It means absolutely nothing (many years) once that gate opens and 18-20 horses come stumbling and bumbling out of that gate. One of the more obvious horses can be used but I learned just depending on that is usually futile and also a missed opportunity. I'd rather lose 10 in a row than to hedge on a horse like Bellamy Road...lesson learned.

[Stoleitbreezing]

2005 Afleet Alex. that was tough.

2006 Lawyer Ron

2008 Tried to get cute by using pyro, flamed out trying to beat a monster.

2009 I had Papa Clem who seemed to be tucked up nicely in 4th just needing a way out then.....50-1 skimmed the rail and the others ran him over as he had no punch late. I've been reasonably successful in the derby except for a few year.

2010 Paddy O' Prado didn't think pletcher would finally get his derby win. sloppy track proved otherwise.

[Thunder Gulch]

This will be my 25th straight to attend. Had a great run thru the 90's, bad for the next decade.
1991 Hansel
1992 Lil E Tee- just bet Pat Day
1993 Sea Hero- loved the pedigree
1994 Strodes Creek- winner if it didn't rain
1995 Thunder Gulch- favorite horse ever
1996 Grindstone/Editors Note entry
1997 Silver Charm - never more confident in a winner
====At this point I think I know what I'm doing, right up til Cape Town looked good off the turn and hung.
1998 Cape Town
1999 Prime Timber
2000 The Deputy - whoa, what was that
2001 Point Given- still can't believe he lost
2002 Perfect Drift- one of my favorites for years thereafter "all/drift/all"
2003 Empire Maker- see Point Given above
2004 The Cliff's Edge- yep, I bet against Smarty
2005 Afleet Alex
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint- coin flip with Barbaro- I lost, Bluegrass Cat killed exacta
2007 Circular Quay- another coin flip with Street Sense- took higher odds, lost
2008 Colonel John- good horse, just got beat
2009 Pioneer of the Nile- made out thanks to exacta backwheel
2010 Lookin at Lucky- had Super Saver covered on tickets
2011 ArchArchArch- hurt and never raced again. Friendly rival had winner
2012 Gemologist- 5 min to post looked at board and commented to friend we didn't have the Santa Anita winner covered at 18-1
2013 Orb- Golden Soul screwed up all verticals
2014 California Chrome- Commanding Curve was great for my verticals
======
2015 Dortmund or Frosted

[AlBundy33]

Powis Castle, Concerto, Saarland, Captain Steve, Tapit, Wilko and Brother Derek come to mind. :D

[FrankieFigs]

No offense FF, but I do now believe you are required to release your Derby pick in highlights, rainbows, and high end alerts; and available to everybody on this forum. :)

None taken LDH. I have accepted the fact that when it comes to the Derby, I suck.... :D

To add insult to injury, my daughter actually did moderate handicapping and picked Animal Kingdom and Super Saver. She did this when she was, oh, 7 or 8 years old. Still haven't heard the end of it (and probably won't until I croak)... :D

[sandpit]

That is absolutely fantastic.

Hats off to the greatest post on this site. Ever.

Thank you very much for the kinds words, though I humbly say I've read many posts that far surpass my little slice of personal history.

I was fortunate enough to grow up in Louisville, which fostered my love for the Derby, and now as an adult be intimately involved in a working fashion with the Derby for the past quarter century. Some years that has really benefited my selections, like Animal Kingdom or Pleasant Colony, but also some bonehead picks too, like in my list.

I love this thread; it's very cool to see the wide range of picks people have made, and I'm sure when we all look back, there is plenty of "How the hell did I pick that horse?"

[sandpit]

many bad bets but Arazi in '92 takes the cake. all these years later that one still really stings........ :bang:

Arazi was the greatest bet against ever twice in America; the second time being the Breeders' Cup Mile later that year, when I made one of my biggest scores ever on Lure's devastating win.

[Sunday Silence]

I'm pretty sure we made the all the same plays that Derby, SAM. Still say Congaree won that photo.. :D

Just watched the replay. Wow - that was a horrific beat. I would have guessed Congaree on the inside got that.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

None taken LDH. I have accepted the fact that when it comes to the Derby, I suck.... :D

To add insult to injury, my daughter actually did moderate handicapping and picked Animal Kingdom and Super Saver. She did this when she was, oh, 7 or 8 years old. Still haven't heard the end of it (and probably won't until I croak)... :D

Hey, at least you "breed" well. :D

By the way, can you please let us know who she picks this year. :ThmbUp:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Hey, at least you "breed" well. :D

By the way, can you please let us know who she picks this year. :ThmbUp:

Who is his grandfather on the maternal side? :)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Who is his grandfather on the maternal side? :)

And does she have tail in female generated Buckpasser X and Y chromosomes with SAN inbreeding?

[ultracapper]

Every derby bet I made before the turn of the century except Unbridled were my worst derby bet ever. They all equally sucked. I bet every derby since 1983 and Unbridled was the only one I even got in the money before 2002. Unbridled/Summer Squall exacta. Pride of my betting history for the 1st 20 years I was a handicapper.

[reckless]

My dumbest bet was when I bet $40 in the future book on a nice colt named Well Decorated. It was 1981 or 82 and getting a future book bet down was difficult but a friend of a friend believed me that I'd mail him the money the second he told me the bet was in.

I got 30-1 on him and I thought I had a great shot. He was a good 2-year-old and at three won the Bahamas in Florida in sharp time when that race meant something.

What made the bet dumb wasn't because he got beat 25-30 lengths in the Derby it was dumb because he went to post at about 60-1! :bang:

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Below are my picks that didn't get a check except 1996. I'm worse than Beyer....

Year Selection (odds) Finish Winner
************************************************** ******
2015 Frosted (7-1) TBD TBD
2014 Candy Boy (9-1) 13th California Chrome
2013 Overanalyze (16-1) 11th Orb
2012 Take Charge Indy (11-1) 19th I'll Have Another
2011 Santiva (34-1) 6th Animal Kingdom
2010 Awesome Act (11-1) 19th Super Saver
2009 Hold Me Back (12-1) 12th Mine That Bird
2008 Adriano (28-1) 19th Big Brown
2007 Any Given Saturday (13-1) 8th Street Sense
2006 A.P. Warrior (14-1) 18th Barbaro
2005 Greeley's Galaxy (21-1) 11th Giacomo
2004 Tapit (6-1) 9th Smarty Jones
2002 Saarland (6-1) 10th War Emblem
1999 Desert Hero (19-1) 13th Charasmatic
1996 Cavonnier (5-1) 2nd Grindstone
(Most painful loss, by far. ABC went to commerical with one
commentator stating he hung on. Got back $62. Other way
around, I get back $7K. Start of two year losing streak)
1993 Bull Inthe Heather (5-1) 11th Sea Hero
1991 Lost Mountain (72-1) 12th Strike The Gold
1986 Snow Chief (2-1) 11th Ferdinand

Overall Record since 1986: 29 starts, 1 winner, 6 seconds, 1 third, 2 fourths

[cj]

Pretty sure my worse was Lines of David, won the Arkansas Derby beating Super Saver. That one came back to win the Derby while Lines of David was WAAAAY back.

[elhelmete]

Dullahan

[Giacomo05]

Daddy Nose Best still haunts me.. Had Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister, Dullahan, WTDW, and Creative Cause all in my super and picked him over IHA.. :bang: :bang:

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Cowtown Cat. I picked him over Hard Spun, and that was one dumbass mistake.

[ILovetheInner]

Too many to count! But I remember my first :) Judger. I think that was Cannonade's?