2015 KY Derby - you make the Morning Line

[horses4courses]

Taking the current twenty listed runners.
Obviously, things can change before May 2nd.
The post position draw will have a slight effect on the odds.
But here's my stab at the morning line.
I encourage others to give their opinions, and make your own, if you want.

1 International Star 25-1
2 Dortmund 9-2
3 Carpe Diem 6-1
4 American Pharoah 3-1
5 Frosted 15-1
6 Mubtaahij 12-1
7 Materiality 12-1
8 El Kabeir 30-1
9 Upstart 20-1
10 Far Right 50-1
11 Itsaknockout 50-1
12 Firing Line 15-1
13 Danzig Moon 35-1
14 War Story 50-1
15 Tencendur 50-1
16 One Lucky Dane 35-1
17 Stanford 50-1
18 Mr. Z 50-1
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1
20 Bolo 50-1

[horses4courses]

* *Updates - with my latest guesses

1 International Star 25-1
2 Dortmund 9-2
3 Carpe Diem 6-1
4 American Pharoah (3-1) *now 5-2
5 Frosted 15-1
6 Mubtaahij (12-1) *now 15-1
7 Materiality (12-1) *now 15-1
8 El Kabeir 30-1
9 Upstart 20-1
10 Far Right 50-1
11 Itsaknockout 50-1
12 Firing Line 15-1
13 Danzig Moon 35-1
14 War Story 50-1
15 Tencendur 50-1
16 * Madefromlucky 50-1
18 Mr. Z 50-1
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1
20 Bolo 50-1

[Saratoga_Mike]

Dort's the favorite overseas...

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/future-racing/kentucky-derby

[boys at tosconova]

Dort's the favorite overseas...

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/future-racing/kentucky-derby

dort's not the fav...odd's are <4-1 on AP right now at this book

[horses4courses]

dort's not the fav...odd's are <4-1 on AP right now at this book

Yeah, Paddy has AP @ 2.75-1, or 11/4 in UK fractional odds.

I think most books there have him too short at 2-1,
but by post time, I doubt you will see 3-1.
Remember, too, that a scratch is a loser with them.
That being said, they took a stand on this horse since last year.
He has always been at low odds, while others have not.

UK books look too long on Carpe Diem.
He could go off as high as 8-1, but I doubt it.
There is plenty of 8-1 available with them right now.

The Dubai winner always figures to get played over there.
I figure he has to be at least 15-1 at the track, unless he gets sharp money.

Firing Line is a puzzling horse regarding his odds.
We all know he's close to as good as Dortmund.
Yet, he could go off at 20-1 on race day?
Hmmm........

[Stoleitbreezing]

Taking the current twenty listed runners.
Obviously, things can change before May 2nd.
The post position draw will have a slight effect on the odds.
But here's my stab at the morning line.
I encourage others to give their opinions, and make your own, if you want.

1 International Star 25-1
2 Dortmund 9-2
3 Carpe Diem 6-1
4 American Pharoah 3-1
5 Frosted 15-1
6 Mubtaahij 12-1
7 Materiality 12-1
8 El Kabeir 30-1
9 Upstart 20-1
10 Far Right 50-1
11 Itsaknockout 50-1
12 Firing Line 15-1
13 Danzig Moon 35-1
14 War Story 50-1
15 Tencendur 50-1
16 One Lucky Dane 35-1
17 Stanford 50-1
18 Mr. Z 50-1
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1
20 Bolo 50-1

I'm playing International Star at 25-1 for sure. Lowest I'd take would probably be 18-1 or so.

[olddaddy]

Hope your line is right on with Mubtaahij. Back in the day I would go out and collect some pop bottles to sweeten a wager. Now a days, at my age I'm considering selling an organ of mine but no one would want that from a old turd. Beg, borrow and steal time I guess.

[Saratoga_Mike]

dort's not the fav...odd's are <4-1 on AP right now at this book

Sorry, you're right.

[horses4courses]

Hope your line is right on with Mubtaahij. Back in the day I would go out and collect some pop bottles to sweeten a wager. Now a days, at my age I'm considering selling an organ of mine but no one would want that from a old turd. Beg, borrow and steal time I guess.


:lol:

He could still take action.
With no lasix, though, I see plenty going against him.
The UAE Derby has such a dismal record as a prep race.
That has to change some day.

Jockey Soumillon is no slouch, either.
Naturally, you could say he's better on turf.
If Mubtaahij gets beat, though, I doubt it will be the rider's fault.

[Bennie]

At least they were smart enough to bring him early and not wait until the week of the Derby like some have done in the past. I have him in exacta futures with Frosted, Carpe and Dortman and if he looks good leading up to Derby Day I will use him in some Oaks/Derby doubles.

[upthecreek]

This site has Mubtaahij @ 9-1
http://www.oddsshark.com/horse-racing/kentucky-derby-odds

[maclr11]

Mine's a little different

American Pharoah 5/2
Dortmund 4/1
Carpe Diem 6/1
Materiality 9/1
Frosted 10/1
Mubtaahij 12/1
International Star 15/1
Firing Line 15/1
Upstart 15/1
El Kabeir 20/1
Danzig Moon 25/1
Tencendur 30/1
Bolo 30/1
Far Right 35/1
Stanford 40/1
War Story 40/1
Itsaknockout 50/1
Mr. Z 50/1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1
Madefromlucky 50/1

[olddaddy]

My only fear on Mubtaahij being less than 10/1 is Arab money.

[PizzaCat]

1 International Star 25-1
2 Dortmund 7-2
3 Carpe Diem 6-1
4 American Pharoah 3-1
5 Frosted 9-1
6 Mubtaahij 12-1
7 Materiality 14-1
8 El Kabeir 30-1
9 Upstart 15-1
10 Far Right 25-1
11 Itsaknockout 50-1
12 Firing Line 10-1
13 Danzig Moon 25-1
14 War Story 50-1
15 Tencendur 40-1
16 One Lucky Dane 30-1
17 Stanford 50-1
18 Mr. Z 40-1
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho 40-1
20 Bolo 50-1

[AlBundy33]

American Pharoah 3-1
Dortmund 7-2
Carpe Diem 6-1
Frosted 8-1
Materiality 10-1
Mubtaahij 12-1
Firing Line 15-1
International Star 18-1
Upstart 20-1
Tencendur 20-1
El Kabeir 20-1
Ocho Ocho Ocho 30-1
Bolo 30-1
Danzig Moon 30-1
Madefromlucky 30-1
Far Right 50-1
Itsaknockout 50-1
War Story 50-1
Stanford 50-1
Mr. Z 50-1

[SecretAgentMan]

1 International Star 20-1.......goes off 22-1
2 Dortmund 7-2.......3-1
3 Carpe Diem 6-1.......5-1
4 American Pharoah 3-1......5-2
5 Frosted 15-1........12-1
6 Mubtaahij 12-1.......9-1
7 Materiality 10-1.......8-1
8 El Kabeir 30-1.......25-1
9 Upstart 15-1......13-1
10 Far Right 30-1......28-1
11 Itsaknockout 50-1......53-1
12 Firing Line 12-1.......10-1
13 Danzig Moon 30-1.......22-1
14 War Story 50-1........38-1
15 Tencendur 50-1......43-1
16 MadefromLucky 50-1.....40-1
17 Stanford 50-1......43-1
18 Mr. Z 50-1......47-1
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1.....55-1
20 Bolo 50-1.......44-1