Official Derby Trends Thread

[nads1420]

Might as well start one...

Only 4 horses since 2000 have won the derby with running there final 1 1/8 mile prep in over 1:50 (Street Sense, Mind That Bird, Animal Kingdom, Orb)

This year the only horses to run under 1:50


Firing Line 1:47.1
American Pharoah 1:48.2
Dortmund 1:48.3
One Lucky Dane 1:49.2
Carpe Diem 1:49.3

---------------------------------------------------------
X Factor Mubtaahij - UAE Derby ran at 1 3/16 mile

[BlueChip@DRF]

44-0-3-2
No horse with Storm Cat in their blood has ever won the Derby.
It could be the year that this trend may be broken.

__________________________________________________ _
Since 1990, with the exception of Giacomo, all Derby winners have had at least two wins in their record before the Derby.

__________________________________________________ _
19-of-23 (82.6%)
Since 1992, 19 Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last race. The other four finished 4th. And in this time bracket, no Derby winner has finished 3rd in their last race.
1st: 10
2nd: 9
3rd: 0
4th: 4

__________________________________________________ _
Double wins prior to the Derby account for only 8 of the last 23 winners (31.8%); however, it has only occurred since 2000 and is actually 8 of 15 (53%)

__________________________________________________ _
17 of 23 (74%) broke their maiden within their first two starts, eleven straight from 2002-2012

__________________________________________________ _
Since 1992 - number of races as a 3YO before winning the Derby

1: 0
2: 6 (consecutively from 2007-2012)
3: 10
4: 6
5: 0
6: 0
7: 1 (Charismatic)

[Giacomo05]

BlueChip@DRF posted this last year, and it continued with Danza..

9 out of the last 12 years a winner or 2nd place runner from Oaklawn Park has finished in the superfecta.

[minethatbird08]

Super short trend but last two oaks and derby winners are from AP Indy sire line.

[Giacomo05]

Here's a good one..

12 of the past 13 years the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won it before.

[RoyalHeroine]

Here's a good one..

12 of the past 13 years the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won it before.

de kock has a good chance to continue the trend.

[RacingFan1992]

Only one horse has won a classic race and had absolutely no Native Dancer/Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Any guesses?

[razorback5]

Only one horse has won a classic race and had absolutely no Native Dancer/Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Any guesses?
Secretariat

[RacingFan1992]

Only one horse has won a classic race and had absolutely no Native Dancer/Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Any guesses?

Yes Secretariat is a correct answer but I meant to say in this century from 2000 to now. Sorry.

[SecretAgentMan]

I wonder if there's such a stat of the horse with the highest IQ winning the derby, lmao.......

[razorback5]

Yes Secretariat is a correct answer but I meant to say in this century from 2000 to now. Sorry.
Barbaro?

[RacingFan1992]

Nope. Mr. Prospector on his mom's side. It was Giacomo. A Holy Bull colt out of Set Them Free.

[razorback5]

Damn, just looked and that's it.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Here's a good one..

12 of the past 13 years the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won it before.

So who does that eliminate besides Baffert, Pletcher, and Lukas?

[SecretAgentMan]

So who does that eliminate besides Baffert, Pletcher, and Lukas?


That's 8 horses dude, that's almost half the field.......

[BlueChip@DRF]

That's 8 horses dude, that's almost half the field.......

Well, then it looks like an easier 12-horse field to handicap for the Win spot. :cool:

[SecretAgentMan]

Well, then it looks like an easier 12-horse field to handicap for the Win spot. :cool:


Look at it this way, its like a 12 horse field at Keenland :)

Its easier than a 20 horse field.......but don't get me wrong, we all get sucked into the other horses because of the media. Baffert & Pletcher will be all over the TV......

[RacingFan1992]

For some reason I was never fond of Baffert, Lukas, and Pletcher.

[RacingFan1992]

For some reason I was never fond of Baffert, Lukas, and Pletcher. Maybe its cause of the fact they are treated like celebrities who are the ones to beat. Call me old fashion but I like Shug.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Adding to "trainers that have never won The Derby" - if we eliminate Storm Cat, N2L, better on turf, and La. Derby as last start*, then who we have left is:

Frosted
Mubtaahij
Upstart
Far Right
Ocho Ocho Ocho


* - no horse has ever won the Derby with the Louisiana Derby being their last start before The Derby

[SecretAgentMan]

Adding to "trainers that have never won The Derby" - if we eliminate Storm Cat, N2L, better on turf, and La. Derby as last start*, then who we have left is:

Frosted
Mubtaahij
Upstart
Far Right
Ocho Ocho Ocho


* - no horse has ever won the Derby with the Louisiana Derby being their last start before The Derby


I like the stat about the last race being at LA derby......I liked Int Star for about week & then just like him anymore......

Far Right is too slow IMO, but he's getting Mike Smith on him & he's the kind if closer that will win this KD.....of course I like Frosted tho.

OchoOcho is doing Nada Nada in the derby......

Mubtaahij is a snesky horse but i feel confident in saying he wont win.

Upstart, well, i wish he ran at a better track so i can determine how good he really is.....

[Giacomo05]

Going to see how he works first but I have a gut feeling Upstart is going to surprise a lot of people. Not predicting a win but pretty sure he sneaks into the superfecta.

[OCF]

I think it's important to note that for the 22 years before 2010 the LA Derby was a 1 1/16th race held 6+ weeks out from the KD.

Since the LA Derby went to 1 1/8th and 5 weeks out (2011 was 6 weeks out), there have been 4 finishers in the top 3 in 5 years.

[upthecreek]

Dortmund gets eliminated by this stat:

http://freepps.comoj.com/2015%20Derby%20AHP/Automatic%20Elemanation/AHP%20Factor%2010.html

[nads1420]

Maybe Upstart has a shot.. All winter he was considered a top notch horse. He was right there in the Florida Derby. And as trips happen in the Derby if things break his way maybe he will sneak in and win.... jusy throwing it out there, not that im betting him but i do hold a 53-1 futures ticket

[BlueChip@DRF]

Dortmund gets eliminated by this stat:

http://freepps.comoj.com/2015%20Derby%20AHP/Automatic%20Elemanation/AHP%20Factor%2010.html

Using my list and then going with this factor, the field is whittled down to these three:

Frosted
Mubtaahij
Far Right

And there is the William Scott Elimination Method (using BSF, not BRIS) given on the right and comes up with these:

Top BSF coming into The Derby:

Materiality
Dortmund
American Pharaoh


Best BSF before last two races coming into The Derby (not including top contenders given above):

Upstart
Frosted
El Kabeir

Looks like Frosted has the least negatives.
However, anybody have stats on Tapit/Pulpit progeny running in The Derby?

[Huddy Goodjob]

"However, anybody have stats on Tapit/Pulpit progeny running in The Derby?"

Normandy Invation (AWD 7.4/7.1) 4th 2013

Hansen (AWD 7.3/6.8) 9th 2012

Note, Frosted has an AWD of 7.4/7.6

[BlueChip@DRF]

"However, anybody have stats on Tapit/Pulpit progeny running in The Derby?"

Normandy Invation (AWD 7.4/7.1) 4th 2013

Hansen (AWD 7.3/6.8) 9th 2012

Note, Frosted has an AWD of 7.4/7.6


Ahhhhhh….. The correct distribution of AWD Sire/Dam.

[Giacomo05]

6 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two 105 or higher Beyers at a route in their last three races, 5 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

6 starters: 3 wins - 1 second - 0 third - 1 fourth.

Upstart

[BlueChip@DRF]

6 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two 105 or higher Beyers at a route in their last three races, 5 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

6 starters: 3 wins - 1 second - 0 third - 1 fourth.

Upstart

Maybe key in all spots?

[nads1420]

lots of positives with Upstart as we start to dig deeper... hmm...

[BlueChip@DRF]

lots of positives with Upstart as we start to dig deeper... hmm...

Gulfstream Park is a deep track. He will probably feel relief on the scraped track come Derby Day.

[Giacomo05]

Maybe key in all spots?

Unlesss he works terrible, that's what I plan on doing

[BlueChip@DRF]

Unlesss he works terrible, that's what I plan on doing

You shouldn't do that. You should value your job and be the best worker you can be.

[Huddy Goodjob]

6 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two 105 or higher Beyers at a route in their last three races, 5 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

6 starters: 3 wins - 1 second - 0 third - 1 fourth.

Upstart

Can you list the qualifiers under this angel?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Can you list the qualifiers under this angel?

He did. :)

[Giacomo05]

This angle was posted last year by Depalma. I can't tell you who came in 2nd and 4th, all I know is who came in first.. 2004 Smarty Jones, 2008 Big Brown, and 2014 California Chrome.

[BlueChip@DRF]

This angle was posted last year by Depalma. I can't tell you who came in 2nd and 4th, all I know is who came in first.. 2004 Smarty Jones, 2008 Big Brown, and 2014 California Chrome.

He is one I trust.

[BlueChip@DRF]

This angle was posted last year by Depalma. I can't tell you who came in 2nd and 4th, all I know is who came in first.. 2004 Smarty Jones, 2008 Big Brown, and 2014 California Chrome.

The OTM finish was Brother Derek (2006)
2nd Place finish: Empire Maker (2003)
3rd Place finish: Afleet Alex
I am unable to find a 4th place finisher with those parameters.
Should be 6-3-1-1-0

The 2nd link in my signature has the complete DRF PPs in order of finish for each Derby from 1992 - 2014.

[SecretAgentMan]

Anyone can list s possible 8 to 10 horses to won the derby, my 10 year old niece could do that & hit 6 out of 10 derbies.......question is who can pick the one & only derby winner!

Nothing wrong with breaking down the race & having 8 to 10 horses available to pick from, but then that's gotta be broken down to 2 or 3 horses like you guys are doing in this thread......don't over examine these horses, you will have a nervous breakdown.

Going back to 1990, almost all the derby winners had something against the, an angle or trend.

[Giacomo05]

The OTM finish was Brother Derek (2006)
2nd Place finish: Empire Maker (2003)
3rd Place finish: Afleet Alex
I am unable to find a 4th place finisher with those parameters.
Should be 6-3-1-1-0

The 2nd link in my signature has the complete DRF PPs in order of finish for each Derby from 1992 - 2014.

Thanks for digging, this is good stuff :ThmbUp:

[nads1420]

am i correct to say going by the trends and angles and pure horse talant Upstart and Frosted are the 2 that fit that mold?

[BlueChip@DRF]

am i correct to say going by the trends and angles and pure horse talant Upstart and Frosted are the 2 that fit that mold?


If you add one more furlong (12 extra seconds of running), would it be enough for them to beat out the Big 3 (AP, Dortmund, Materiality)?

[Secondbest]

am i correct to say going by the trends and angles and pure horse talant Upstart and Frosted are the 2 that fit that mold?
Seems so. With mub as the x factor.

[Giacomo05]

am i correct to say going by the trends and angles and pure horse talant Upstart and Frosted are the 2 that fit that mold?

Upstart is the only contender that fits the mold using this angle.

[Secondbest]

Blue. Great link.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Blue. Great link.

You have the results by way of PPS and I think this way makes it easier to find a Place horse and see how others have fared as well.

I had it bookmarked on my old computer, but since I am on different computers I might as well make it a link from one point.

[nads1420]

Here is one i havent heard anyone mention: no horse has won the derby with out previously facing a field of 10 or more in at least the past 48 years... American Pharoah and Materiality have not faced a field of 10 or more.



lets all chew on that for a second... hmmm

[BlueChip@DRF]

Here is one i havent heard anyone mention: no horse has won the derby with out previously facing a field of 10 or more in at least the past 48 years... American Pharoah and Materiality have not faced a field of 10 or more.



lets all chew on that for a second... hmmm

Holy crap.

[SecretAgentMan]

Here is one i havent heard anyone mention: no horse has won the derby with out previously facing a field of 10 or more in at least the past 48 years... American Pharoah and Materiality have not faced a field of 10 or more.



lets all chew on that for a second... hmmm


Yeah, I seen this mentioned at bloodhorse

[SecretAgentMan]

Here is one i havent heard anyone mention: no horse has won the derby with out previously facing a field of 10 or more in at least the past 48 years... American Pharoah and Materiality have not faced a field of 10 or more.



lets all chew on that for a second... hmmm


But I don't need the help of this angle to tell me that AP & Materiality won't win the derby, I was convinced they wouldn't win 2 weeks ago........but this angle just solidifies my throwouts of these 2 horses for the win spot.

[nads1420]

Yeah, I seen this mentioned at bloodhorse


bloodhorse has a forum?

[nads1420]

But I don't need the help of this angle to tell me that AP & Materiality won't win the derby, I was convinced they wouldn't win 2 weeks ago........but this angle just solidifies my throwouts of these 2 horses for the win spot.


If American Pharoah does win this race he is a special horse

[SecretAgentMan]

bloodhorse has a forum?



No, but this trend was posted on their site or Paulick report, can't remember. I believe someone from ESPN found this trend .......

[sbcaris]

This trend reminds me of one that goes like this: No horse has won the Derby in the last 30 years that did not have at least one road to one of the following stallions: Northern Dancer, Raise A Native, Nasrullah or Turn-To.

I am taking a guess that around 100% of all horses running in the Derby have at least one road to at least one of the above stallions. Since around 100% of the starters have this angle, then one can expect around 100% of the winners to also fit this angle.

In my opinion, this angle has no value. I would not eliminate a horse on the basis of this angle.

[wisconsin]

If American Pharoah does win this race he is a special horse


Because he has Storm cat in his blood, his dosage index is above 4, and he has never been in a field of 10 horses.

Too many iffy things to overcome, IMHO

[RoyalHeroine]

This trend reminds me of one that goes like this: No horse has won the Derby in the last 30 years that did not have at least one road to one of the following stallions: Northern Dancer, Raise A Native, Nasrullah or Turn-To.

I am taking a guess that around 100% of all horses running in the Derby have at least one road to at least one of the above stallions. Since around 100% of the starters have this angle, then one can expect around 100% of the winners to also fit this angle.

In my opinion, this angle has no value. I would not eliminate a horse on the basis of this angle.

Trends are just that: trends.

When they get broken, then they become broken trends.

I also see nothing in this. What about nine? Any KD winners that faced "only" 9 horses?

Where can I get odds that this meaningless "stat" will be broken this year??

[sbcaris]

Wisconsin: Storm Cat has nothing at all to do with American Pharoah's dosage over 4.00. Storm Cat is not a chef -de race so he has no influence on American Pharoah's dosage index. Only the chefs count toward the dosage index.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I'm not that much into trends either. I prefer to let the horses race and let the eye test shape my judgements. I believe in the Apollo Curse as foundation at 2 YO is important coming into the derby. I think in the next few years we'll see someone break that trend, but he won't have my money. Professionalism and experience go a long way imo.

[woodtoo]

I see AP has galloped 1 1/2 miles the last 6 days in a row, is this a trend

or a restless horse?

[BlueChip@DRF]

I see AP has galloped 1 1/2 miles the last 6 days in a row, is this a trend

or a restless horse?

Laz had Affirmed do that, but at least one of those was a workout.

[SecretAgentMan]

I see AP has galloped 1 1/2 miles the last 6 days in a row, is this a trend

or a restless horse?



Yes, he seems to be galloping every morning about 1 1/2 miles.......I believe he's gonna workout out Sunday.

[wisconsin]

Wisconsin: Storm Cat has nothing at all to do with American Pharoah's dosage over 4.00. Storm Cat is not a chef -de race so he has no influence on American Pharoah's dosage index. Only the chefs count toward the dosage index.


Never said it did, but horses with Storm Cat in their bloodlines ANYWHERE are 0-44 in the Derby.

Those 3 reasons are enough to keep me off of this horse. Just sayin'

[BlueChip@DRF]

Never said it did, but horses with Storm Cat in their bloodlines ANYWHERE are 0-44 in the Derby.

Those 3 reasons are enough to keep me off of this horse. Just sayin'

This is the strongest "Storm Cat" field by far. The curse could be broken and I hate that. But, you gotta make a stand somewhere.

[SecretAgentMan]

This is the strongest "Storm Cat" field by far. The curse could be broken and I hate that. But, you gotta make a stand somewhere.


This Storm Cat field won't win the derby......I wish I could get odds on an entry of Storm Cat horses in the derby to bet against, I could probably get 50-1, I would lay the hammer.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Here is one i havent heard anyone mention: no horse has won the derby with out previously facing a field of 10 or more in at least the past 48 years... American Pharoah and Materiality have not faced a field of 10 or more.



lets all chew on that for a second... hmmm


ALL Triple Crown Champions have faced a field of 10 or more before they won the Derby. And take a look at Assault's (http://static.drf.com/PPs/triple-crown-winners/Assault.pdf) first 3 races and add up the number of total starters!

[SecretAgentMan]

AP will probably be 5-2 & Dortmund a fat 4-1......a lot of money will be on AP.

[wisconsin]

ALL Triple Crown Champions have faced a field of 10 or more before they won the Derby. And take a look at Assault's (http://static.drf.com/PPs/triple-crown-winners/Assault.pdf) first 3 races and add up the number of total starters!

Based on what I see, he seemed an unlikely and surprising Derby winner going 2 turns for the 2nd time only. Even more surprising that he won the Triple Crown :eek:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Based on what I see, he seemed an unlikely and surprising Derby winner going 2 turns for the 2nd time only. Even more surprising that he won the Triple Crown :eek:

And he ran in the Derby Trial 5 days earlier. They don't make 'em like that anymore.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Compared to today's stock.....

http://mind-exchange.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/when-i-was-your-age-i-didnt-go-backpacking-around-europe-i-bombed-the-shit-out-of-it.jpeg

[SecretAgentMan]

And he ran in the Derby Trial 5 days earlier. They don't make 'em like that anymore.



And we get pissy at Lukas for running Mr Z once a month, lol!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Here's a personal trend:

Every year, the Derby contender I "singled to win" usually becomes the wiseguy play.

[depalma113]

The OTM finish was Brother Derek (2006)
2nd Place finish: Empire Maker (2003)
3rd Place finish: Afleet Alex
I am unable to find a 4th place finisher with those parameters.
Should be 6-3-1-1-0

The 2nd link in my signature has the complete DRF PPs in order of finish for each Derby from 1992 - 2014.

Brother Derek finished in a dead heat for fourth.

One of Afleet Alex's Beyer's was a sprint.

[depalma113]

a caveat to the 105 or higher Beyer at a route in 2 of their last 3 since 2003.

Since 2003 all horses that have posted a 106 or higher Beyer in two of their last three races have made up some portion of the superfecta.

2003 - Empire Maker 108, 111 second
2004 - Smarty Jones 107, 108 first
2005 - Afleet Alex 106, 108 third
2006 - Brother Derek 108, 108 fourth
2008 - Big Brown 106, 106 first
2014 - California Chrome 108, 107 first
2015 - Upstart 106, 108 ?

[PICSIX]

Because he has Storm cat in his blood, his dosage index is above 4, and he has never been in a field of 10 horses.

Too many iffy things to overcome, IMHO

D. Wayne expecting big things out of AP.....

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91637/baffert-everyone-has-a-shot-in-the-derby?source=rss

Lukas said he has been convinced early that American Pharoah would be an exceptional racehorse.

"I think we are going to see something really special, though I don't want to put Bob on the spot here," said the 79-year-old Hall of Famer. "I think when you get my age and have been in as many of these as I have been in, the reality of the whole thing sets in. I think we are going to see a really special horse on Saturday. This is as good a field as we have ever had and, like Bob pointed out, things happen, but I would like to trade places."

[BlueChip@DRF]

With all trends taken into account, it has filtered out all but 4 contenders.

[depalma113]

Since 2003 all horses that have posted a 106 or higher Beyer in two of their last three races have made up some portion of the superfecta.

2003 - Empire Maker 108, 111 second
2004 - Smarty Jones 107, 108 first
2005 - Afleet Alex 106, 108 third
2006 - Brother Derek 108, 108 fourth
2008 - Big Brown 106, 106 first
2014 - California Chrome 108, 107 first
2015 - Upstart 106, 108 ?

This caveat no longer applies as the Florida Derby has been adjusted down and Upstart is now a 105 for that race.

[depalma113]

Since 2003 there have been 5 horses with a Beyer Average of 105 or better that have ran a mile of their final prep under 1:36.

California Chrome
Big Brown
Brother Derek
Bellamy Road
Empire Maker

Results 2 wins, 1 second, 1 fourth 1 off

This year only one horse fits this angle: Dortmund.

Note: Funny Cide had a Beyer average of 104.5+.

[stats33]

You wouldn't get off of him because of that 1 point adjustment would you? I'm not.

[depalma113]

You wouldn't get off of him because of that 1 point adjustment would you? I'm not.

No not at all. He still fits the 105 or higher at a route in 2 of the last 3 angle. I expect him to finish in the top 4.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I hope the Storm Cat trend is reversed today so we can get it all over with!

[OCF]

Wood Memorial now 0 for past 11 years in finishing 3rd or better.

[horses4courses]

.Lane Gold ‏@lanegold now6 seconds ago
There have been three straight winning favorites in the @KentuckyDerby. First time that's happened since 1973-1975.

[Secondbest]

So much For no stormcat anywhere and AWD of sire to dam sire.Any other busted ángles?

[OCF]

FL adds to the case that you can run in a minor prep and still have success.

[OCF]

Didn't the "never having run in a field of 10 or greater" angle bite the dust also?