Frosted

[OCF]

While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...

What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).

Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.

Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?

[BlueChip@DRF]

While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...

What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).

Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.

Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?

More like a drought than a jinx.

[PICSIX]

While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...

What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).

Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.

Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?

I hope not, or I will be trashing all my tickets.

[nads1420]

to play devils advocate i will say this against him

Regardless of pace he only beat a horse that will be a 40-1 shot by 2 lengths for only his second win. The other was a maiden win which it took him 3 shots to break.... AP r Big dort puts 10 lengths on Tencendur

[OCF]

to play devils advocate i will say this against him

Regardless of pace he only beat a horse that will be a 40-1 shot by 2 lengths for only his second win. The other was a maiden win which it took him 3 shots to break.... AP r Big dort puts 10 lengths on Tencendur

Granted, but the prep season was such a chalkfest that horses that beat well-regarded horses, much less well-regarded fields, are few and far between.

[nads1420]

he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen

[SecretAgentMan]

to play devils advocate i will say this against him

Regardless of pace he only beat a horse that will be a 40-1 shot by 2 lengths for only his second win. The other was a maiden win which it took him 3 shots to break.... AP r Big dort puts 10 lengths on Tencendur


Frosted wasn't in the best of health, he had breathing problems, & still came in 4th by 4 lengths in the FOY vs Upstart.......he was gonna beat Upstart easily in that race if he didn't have the breathing problem & was on a dull & sandy deep track.

Good luck betting on AP & Dortmund.......

[boys at tosconova]

he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen

seems like there was an excuse for that..albeit there are excuses for quite a bit of stuff when you want there to be one. his hard fought win was a lil' unexpected for me. but does put credence in the excuse. but if you want to make a case for him in the derby, you really have to make a case for the warhorse of king charlemagne as well. and i don't think many will do that. i wouldn't use one w/o the other...trherefor i prolly won't use either

[OCF]

he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen

That's a different approach than we usually we see - toss the good race rather than the bad ones. ;)

[nads1420]

Frosted wasn't in the best of health, he had breathing problems, & still came in 4th by 4 lengths in the FOY vs Upstart.......he was gonna beat Upstart easily in that race if he didn't have the breathing problem & was on a dull & sandy deep track.

Good luck betting on AP & Dortmund.......


we are all just assuming of this breathing problem tho right? In the fountain of youth its more obvious then the holy bull.... i guess... but who really knows.. again i do like Frosted but this time of year I like to play devils advocate to make people think... namely myself...lol

[SecretAgentMan]

we are all just assuming of this breathing problem tho right? In the fountain of youth its more obvious then the holy bull.... i guess... but who really knows.. again i do like Frosted but this time of year I like to play devils advocate to make people think... namely myself...lol



The trainer suggested it was his breathing, so hence the throat surgery? Then he made sure to change other things like the jockey, shaved a bit off the blinkers so the horse has more of a view of the track.

Alysheba received the same surgery before the derby as well.......he went on to win the KD.

The Wood drought is somewhat of a concern tho......then again, all trends were made to be broken.

[f2tornado]

Joel Rosario is a huge plus. When in doubt, bet on previous Derby winning jockeys.

[letswastemoney]

I would not place too much emphasis on what Frosted did as a presser, if he's going to go for his Wood Memorial strategy.

Sometimes horses are completely different with a change in tactics.

[PaceMasterT]

While we continue to decompress from AP's AR Derby ...

What's not to like about Frosted's Wood Memorial? He closed in a dominant manner into a dead honest pace (TimeformUS has a 100 for the 3/4 pace).

Per my calc's he had the fastest final 3/8 of any horse in the 9 furlong preps, and again, that was into an honest pace.

Maybe he breaks the Wood Memorial's jinx?

You can never discount a horse that wins a race. "Who did he beat?", the detractors will say. He beat who he was supposed to. Now, I wouldn't put too much credence into his final fractions as that race was run like a turf race - plod around for 3/4 and then gun for the last 1/4. I will discount the speed figure he earned in that race, but by how much is the question.

[Tall One]

he did get smoked by Upstart who is an average horse and couldnt close out a joke of a field back in November in the Remsen



Started on the far outside and ran against a huge bias that day finishing second. 11 hole at 1 1/8 at AQU isn't the best post there.

Upstart is not an average horse. Migliore has called him his derby horse since January. :D

[nads1420]

Started on the far outside and ran against a huge bias that day finishing second. 11 hole at 1 1/8 at AQU isn't the best post there.

Upstart is not an average horse. Migliore has called him his derby horse since January. :D

if you dont want to call him average then we need to call him a disappointment to this point. I wont be betting him but i also am holding a 53-1 futures pool 1 ticket on him. so if he wins im covered

[BlueChip@DRF]

if you dont want to call him average then we need to call him a disappointment to this point. I wont be betting him but i also am holding a 53-1 futures pool 1 ticket on him. so if he wins im covered

Sorry to jinx you, but.....

[SecretAgentMan]

if you dont want to call him average then we need to call him a disappointment to this point. I wont be betting him but i also am holding a 53-1 futures pool 1 ticket on him. so if he wins im covered



Upstart isn't just an average horse, IMO, he's a really good horse that may have peaked.......he ran a really good race vs Materiality in that deep & dull sandy track.......ItsaKnockOut lost by 22 lengths. The same horse that was put up in 1st after Upstart beat him easily in the FOY, bit thanks to the cheating stewards, haha!

Upstart slso has 3 double digit beyers......he had 2 beyers that are bigger than AP's.......& I believe bigger than Dortmund's.

Thing is, we can't really judge how good those horses are that ran at GP this year.......that track was terrible!

Another question is, how good is Materiality, he popped a 110 beyer, the highest of any horse running in the KD........I would have liked to have seen AP & Dortmund run at GP this season, just to see if they would have tired over the track.

[SecretAgentMan]

Started on the far outside and ran against a huge bias that day finishing second. 11 hole at 1 1/8 at AQU isn't the best post there.

Upstart is not an average horse. Migliore has called him his derby horse since January. :D


Frosted started from post #13 in the Remsen......he rana damn good race from that far outside post. He was also 3-4 wide most of the way.......

[nads1420]

The Fountain of Youth I can buy the breathing thing. The thing im having a hard time with is the Holy Bull he was just outrun by Upstart down the stretch. The Remsen he ran a solid race but couldnt catch the front runner in those very slow fractions...

[Tall One]

The Fountain of Youth I can buy the breathing thing. The thing im having a hard time with is the Holy Bull he was just outrun by Upstart down the stretch. The Remsen he ran a solid race but couldnt catch the front runner in those very slow fractions...



Upstart definitely got the better trip that day.

[SecretAgentMan]

The Fountain of Youth I can buy the breathing thing. The thing im having a hard time with is the Holy Bull he was just outrun by Upstart down the stretch. The Remsen he ran a solid race but couldnt catch the front runner in those very slow fractions...



I doubt his breathing problem.just appeard before the FOY race......its always been there & they fixed it supposedly before the Wood.

You're looking for answers that will only be answered on derby day on whether Frosted is able to compete with the big boys.

Everyone is admiring Dortmund & AP because they keep winning races......Dort's undefeated & AP is a beast. Its easy to like a horse when they look like Dortmund & AP on the track in their past races.

[Thunder Gulch]

Started on the far outside and ran against a huge bias that day finishing second. 11 hole at 1 1/8 at AQU isn't the best post there.

Upstart is not an average horse. Migliore has called him his derby horse since January. :D

This.

He was 3w on first turn, and his 2nd turn 4w move had that "winning move" look. If you buy the FOY breathing issue, and it certainly looks plausible if you watch the way he moved then quit, this is a talented horse. The last figure puts him in the mix, and he appears to be a little further off the pace than the other with big figures, which is a plus. Speed to maneuver in traffic, acceleration on the turn, and a good finishing kick at 15+. I'll buy some.

[f2tornado]

Frosted is my win bet barring a horrible post. He fits a lot of angles in addition to the strong pace angle. Also very few angles against. He had a nice Wood despite a mild layoff after the surgery. Could be in for big performance Derby day. Rosario knows how to find that winner's circle too. Worth a shot at what I'm guessing will be 15-1.

[Appy]

Kind of a disappointment to see so many on the Frosted bandwagon.

This Derby benefits by so many "who did he beat" chalky preps. Leaves us with a good betting race that get's way too much credit and emphasis for deciding it's winner is a "forever" chef de racing.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Kind of a disappointment to see so many on the Frosted bandwagon.

This Derby benefits by so many "who did he beat" chalky preps. Leaves us with a good betting race that get's way too much credit and emphasis for deciding it's winner is a "forever" chef de racing.

Multiple wiseguy horses?

[OCF]

Kind of a disappointment to see so many on the Frosted bandwagon.

This Derby benefits by so many "who did he beat" chalky preps. Leaves us with a good betting race that get's way too much credit and emphasis for deciding it's winner is a "forever" chef de racing.

I'm interested in what you have to say, but I can't make sense of that last sentence.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm interested in what you have to say, but I can't make sense of that last sentence.



I was about to ask the same question......didn't understand his statement towards the end.

[f2tornado]

I think what he's saying is the Derby field this year has not been sufficiently challenged (eg. small fields, lack of competition, lack of classic breeding, or whatever) and the eventual winner will be an undeserved classic distance chef (See Dr. Roman; chef-de-race.com). I'll agree the preps have been largely uninspiring. I disagree this crop is any worse than recent years. Frosted actually beat a decent, albeit not stellar, field. He doesn't meet all my favorite angles but gotta go with something or wait until next year. In the end, my wallet doesn't care how good or bad the horses are so long as I pick the ones that win.

[boys at tosconova]

Multiple wiseguy horses?

remind me,...when was the last time the wiseguys were right?

[BlueChip@DRF]

remind me,...when was the last time the wiseguys were right?

Exactly. Helps me eliminate the field by one.

[SecretAgentMan]

Frosted won't be a wise guy horse.....Firing Line could easily be a wise guy horse.

Mubtaahij could very easily be a wise guy horse, especially after he works great over Churchill & his odds falling from 30-1 to 8-1 in pool 4.

Upstart being bought up by Win Star farms for a piece could be a wise guy horse.

War Story could be a wise guy horse......

But IMO, Firing Line will be the wise guy horse......he lost to Dortmund twice by a head, & then went on to win by almost 15 lengths.......

Also, the media makes up the "wise guy" horse, not the true wise guys......the media is a complete joke when it comes to hyping up teams in sports & horses for the derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Also, the only people I see talking about Frosted are a few people on here........

All of the media is super hyping up American Pharaoh & Dortmund ......they're hyping up AP like he's the next coming of Secretariat........just like all the hype about Shared Belief......my 2 cousins couldn't stop talking about him for 2 weeks before the horse pulled up & was vanned off.......how did that turn out?

[boys at tosconova]

seems to me most years the UAE horse turns into the wise guys horse for one reason or another..i expect mutabi to be bet early and often, and talked up just as much as the potential even money horse, AP

[Tall One]

Also, the only people I see talking about Frosted are a few people on here



Be nice if it stayed that way.

[nads1420]

remind me,...when was the last time the wiseguys were right?

orb

[BlueChip@DRF]

orb

I thought the wiseguy horse was never the favorite.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I'm recognizing you're not to high on his chances of winning...but why? I think he fits...

[MNslappy]

I think this thread has it correct, the wise guy horse(s) are going to be Firing Line and Frosted.

By the way, the debate over who the wise guy horse is going to be is an annual event here. You gotta love this time of year.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/search.php?searchid=4995976

[nads1420]

are we giving frosted a free pass in the Holy Bull too or just the Fountain Of Youth?

[BlueChip@DRF]

I think this thread has it correct, the wise guy horse(s) are going to be Firing Line and Frosted.

By the way, the debate over who the wise guy horse is going to be is an annual event here. You gotta love this time of year.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/search.php?searchid=4995976

Link doesn't work. :confused:

[Thebigguy]

Frosted won't be a wise guy horse.....Firing Line could easily be a wise guy horse.

Mubtaahij could very easily be a wise guy horse, especially after he works great over Churchill & his odds falling from 30-1 to 8-1 in pool 4.

Upstart being bought up by Win Star farms for a piece could be a wise guy horse.

War Story could be a wise guy horse......

But IMO, Firing Line will be the wise guy horse......he lost to Dortmund twice by a head, & then went on to win by almost 15 lengths.......

Also, the media makes up the "wise guy" horse, not the true wise guys......the media is a complete joke when it comes to hyping up teams in sports & horses for the derby.


Upstart is getting nothing but disrespected. Wise guy horse? He is one of the 4 most likely winners.

[Tall One]

are we giving frosted a free pass in the Holy Bull too or just the Fountain Of Youth?


Based on his trip in the HB, I think he could get a pass.

Other than his throat procedure, the switch to Rosario might've been the best thing for this colt.

[SecretAgentMan]

Upstart is getting nothing but disrespected. Wise guy horse? He is one of the 4 most likely winners.



He's gerti g disrespected because one race he puts up a 105 beyer & the next a 95........he's inconsistent every other race.

[BlueChip@DRF]

He's gerti g disrespected because one race he puts up a 105 beyer & the next a 95........he's inconsistent every other race.

Actually, he's more consistent than you think. If the pattern holds, then he might finish out of the money.

[nads1420]

He's gerti g disrespected because one race he puts up a 105 beyer & the next a 95........he's inconsistent every other race.

that is true. but dont that mean when he regresses he runs as good as carpe diem who will be way lower odds... Im warming up to Upstart in a big way... based on value and running style a nice pace meltdown would be good for him.

[SecretAgentMan]

that is true. but dont that mean when he regresses he runs as good as carpe diem who will be way lower odds... Im warming up to Upstart in a big way... based on value and running style a nice pace meltdown would be good for him.



I think he sits too close to the pace, he sat back enough in his first 2 races but they were 5 1/2 & 6 1/2f races......in his route races, he sits within 1 length to 1.5 lengths of the leader.

In the derby, it will be suicidal to sit that close to the pace.

[wisconsin]

I think he sits too close to the pace, he sat back enough in his first 2 races but they were 5 1/2 & 6 1/2f races......in his route races, he sits within 1 length to 1.5 lengths of the leader.

In the derby, it will be suicidal to sit that close to the pace.

There are a whole bunch of horses who like to be 2nd and 3rd, but the reality is that only 2 will be in those positions. It's just the way it is in the Derby, this year we have more speed than I recall seeing in the Derby in recent years.

It will be interesting to see how these horses respond to being farther back than they are used to, and remember too that some horses will wear each other out just battling for position and will have nothing to offer at the 1/4 pole.

[SecretAgentMan]

There are a whole bunch of horses who like to be 2nd and 3rd, but the reality is that only 2 will be in those positions. It's just the way it is in the Derby, this year we have more speed than I recall seeing in the Derby in recent years.

It will be interesting to see how these horses respond to being farther back than they are used to, and remember too that some horses will wear each other out just battling for position and will have nothing to offer at the 1/4 pole.


Yep.......I'm still trying to figure out whether Dortmund & AP will have enough in the tank to stay in the trip & super, as we know they will be battling it out up front & behind the pace.

[RoyalHeroine]

Also, the only people I see talking about Frosted are a few people on here........

He's getting consideration the BH forums based on some stats.

Frostie seems to be the only horse in the entire bunch that has no red flags in terms of pedigree, speed figs and closing fractions. Also has a field high Bris figure and the right running style. And a competitive 100+ Beyer.

But still forums like this and BH, PR, etc. are a total wash as far as the general public goes, so I don't see him lower than 15-1.

Hope I'm right cuz he's going in my tris and supers, trying to get Dort out so I can get some value.

[RoyalHeroine]

Yep.......I'm still trying to figure out whether Dortmund & AP will have enough in the tank to stay in the trip & super, as we know they will be battling it out up front & behind the pace.

To my way of thinking, AP has a huge edge whilst Dort totally not.

Last AP race says it all. Sit, ho-hum, draw close at end of backstretch, and run to the wire first while unasked.

[SkunkApe]

Excuse my ignorance, but what are "BH forums"?

[RoyalHeroine]

seems to me most years the UAE horse turns into the wise guys horse for one reason or another..i expect mutabi to be bet early and often, and talked up just as much as the potential even money horse, AP

Different year, totally different track (dirt not poly), crazy superior horse than those in the past.

Done things unheard of at this stage (beating elders twice, winning two 1 3/16 mile races, already carried 126 and 131 lbs, etc.) and he's not technically really 3 years old yet. That happens next Tuesday!

This is a serious racehorse.

It's him and AP for my $$. I win or I don't. Simple as that. :)

[nads1420]

He's getting consideration the BH forums based on some stats.

Frostie seems to be the only horse in the entire bunch that has no red flags in terms of pedigree, speed figs and closing fractions. Also has a field high Bris figure and the right running style. And a competitive 100+ Beyer.

But still forums like this and BH, PR, etc. are a total wash as far as the general public goes, so I don't see him lower than 15-1.

Hope I'm right cuz he's going in my tris and supers, trying to get Dort out so I can get some value.


Whats BH and PR?

[f2tornado]

Whats BH and PR?

Blood Horse?

I'm betting on a Frost Warning in Louisville next weekend.

[RoyalHeroine]

Excuse my ignorance, but what are "BH forums"?

BH= Bloodhorse. Here's the thread:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2015/04/13/an-early-look-at-the-derby-pace-scenario.aspx#comment-1967494868

PR= Paulick Report: http://www.paulickreport.com/

[SkunkApe]

Thanks.

[RoyalHeroine]

Thanks.

You're very welcome!

Forgot about this one too. Very analytical. Took me awhile to get a bit of a grasp on it, but now I love it!

http://chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm

Amazing information.