comparing derby Speed Ratings

[Secondbest]

As a comparison I looked up the top winning speed ratings for the Derby

Beyer
Materiality 110
Dortmund 106
Am.Pharo 105
Upstart 105
Dortmund 104
Dortmund 103
Frosted 103
Am.Pharo 100

Steve Roman Chef-de-race
Materiality -66
El Kabier -66
Frosted -63
Carpe diem -62
Upstart -61
El kabier -60
Mubtaahij RP 118 about 80
Dortmnd -54
Am. Pharo -47

Brisnet
Frosted 107
Dortmund 106
Materiality 105
Upstart 105
Carpe Diem 102
Am.Pharo 102
Dortmund 102

TFUS
Dortmund 115
Dortmund 114
Mubtaahij 114
Am.Pharo 113
Firing line 111
Materiality 109
Dortmund 108
upstart 107
Carpe diem 105
Frosted 105

the interesting thing to me is the way the horses are ranked by each.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm used to beyers & brisnet figs.....Chefs pace figs are decent......never got into Timeforms numbers.

All should be used as a tool tho......can't ever rely solely on these numbers to predict the KD winner.

[Secondbest]

Agree. But They give you a basis to compare one horse to another before going deeper.

[SecretAgentMan]

What do you take from Romans Chef pace numbers on Mubtaahij? A 118 RPR= -80 pace number which is ridiculously high.......Big Brown was in the 60's......I think Chrome was as well, can't remember.but a -80??

I don't know what to think.......

[Secondbest]

Me neither

[BlueChip@DRF]

As a comparison I looked up the top winning speed ratings for the Derby

Beyer
Materiality 110
Dortmund 106
Am.Pharo 105
Upstart 105
Dortmund 104
Dortmund 103
Frosted 103
Am.Pharo 100



Which ones have performed triple-digits two races in a row other than Dortmund and American Pharoah?

[Secondbest]

I only checked The winning races on drf. But I think Materiality was triple dígits in his race before The fl.derby. 106?

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, horses that ran triple digit beyers in several prep races going into the KD have already peaked to their top performance, so IMO, we won't see their best race on May 2nd......heck, Int Star had his highest beyer lastrace & only received a 97.

Dortmund is pulling off 104's & 106.......llet's not forget its Santa Anita, one of the fastest tracks in the US. Chrome put out a 107 & 108......

I guess the key is to break down the times like sbcaris has done. I wonder if beyers could be given out for 3/8 of a mule, last furlong, from top of the stretch to the finish line, from the 1/8 pole, etc......you catch my drift.

[SecretAgentMan]

I only checked The winning races on drf. But I think Materiality was triple dígits in his race before The fl.derby. 106?


Materiality received a 100 brisnet 2 races back, but I don't know the beyer

[f2tornado]

I wonder if beyers could be given out for 3/8 of a mule, last furlong, from top of the stretch to the finish line, from the 1/8 pole, etc......you catch my drift.

Brisnet has pace figures and so does TimeformUS. I like seeing a line like Frosted's Wood. Fast pace figures throughout without slowing down.

[SecretAgentMan]

Brisnet has pace figures and so does TimeformUS. I like seeing a line like Frosted's Wood. Fast pace figures throughout without slowing down.



Yes sir.......Frosted IMO had the best race of any horse in their final prep. Never whipped the horse & he came from 2nd last to catch a slow pace, do you know how hard that is to do?

Very hard.......& he was closing in a straight line not showing any tiredness, no lugging at all. Frosted is my #1 horse as of now......#2 is Int Star........only 2 I like on top.

[nads1420]

Yes sir.......Frosted IMO had the best race of any horse in their final prep. Never whipped the horse & he came from 2nd last to catch a slow pace, do you know how hard that is to do?

Very hard.......& he was closing in a straight line not showing any tiredness, no lugging at all. Frosted is my #1 horse as of now......#2 is Int Star........only 2 I like on top.


Just wish it wasnt the Wood... Its just dud after dud out of that race... oh and i wish his name wasnt Frosted sometimes i let stupid things like a bad name hurt my judgement.. everything looks solid with the horse but man i hate that name... but I like "Mubtaahij" thats just fun to say... so go figure...

I believe Frosted does qualify under most of the rules too. which is a nice plus

[SecretAgentMan]

Just wish it wasnt the Wood... Its just dud after dud out of that race... oh and i wish his name wasnt Frosted sometimes i let stupid things like a bad name hurt my judgement.. everything looks solid with the horse but man i hate that name... but I like "Mubtaahij" thats just fun to say... so go figure...

I believe Frosted does qualify under most of the rules too. which is a nice plus


Haha......the name Mubtaahij is hard to announce by the KD announcer, so they won't let him win, haha.....

Did you think Giacomo was a cool name? When I saw Giacomo passing Closing Argument in the stretch, I said to myself, wtf did these horses come from? Lol......I had Afleet Alex wheeled, I wish I went All/All/Afleet Alext/All super, haha......$1 super paid 864k

Although Closing Argument was very playable! So its good to breakdown all these horses........

We still gotta see the post position draw......would be nice if they could do the draw 2 weeks before. Anyone gets injured, put in the next horse, no difference.

[nads1420]

Haha......the name Mubtaahij is hard to announce by the KD announcer, so they won't let him win, haha.....

Did you think Giacomo was a cool name? When I saw Giacomo passing Closing Argument in the stretch, I said to myself, wtf did these horses come from? Lol......I had Afleet Alex wheeled, I wish I went All/All/Afleet Alext/All super, haha......$1 super paid 864k

Although Closing Argument was very playable! So its good to breakdown all these horses........

We still gotta see the post position draw......would be nice if they could do the draw 2 weeks before. Anyone gets injured, put in the next horse, no difference.

did not like Giacomo or Mine That Bird based on name although i hate mine that bird for a lot of reason if it isnt for that little damn horse i hit the win bet, exacta, tri, & super... true story


i just hope a horse i like draws the 1 post which is likely since i like 2/3rds of the field :bang:

[Stoleitbreezing]

Yes sir.......Frosted IMO had the best race of any horse in their final prep. Never whipped the horse & he came from 2nd last to catch a slow pace, do you know how hard that is to do?

Very hard.......& he was closing in a straight line not showing any tiredness, no lugging at all. Frosted is my #1 horse as of now......#2 is Int Star........only 2 I like on top.

You should also mention how wide he was throughout that race against that dawdling pace. Running well, while wide for an extended period of time against a slow pace is one of my strongest trip notes for a big next out performance. The fact he won under a hand ride and wasn't skiing in the lane tells me a lot about his ability to handle 10F and his quality.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Haha......the name Mubtaahij is hard to announce by the KD announcer, so they won't let him win, haha.....


I just call him Moobs.

[nads1420]

You should also mention how wide he was throughout that race against that dawdling pace. Running well, while wide for an extended period of time against a slow pace is one of my strongest trip notes for a big next out performance. The fact he won under a hand ride and wasn't skiing in the lane tells me a lot about his ability to handle 10F and his quality.

any concern though he beat absolutely nobody worth anything?

[nads1420]

I just call him Moobs.

i like that :ThmbUp:

(moob-ta-heej)

[Stoleitbreezing]

any concern though he beat absolutely nobody worth anything?

Not at all, because it was the way he won it. The derby favorites like AP, Dortmund and Carpe Diem also haven't beat anyone of note which was why we didn't see any high mutuels during the prep races. Since we've not seen many of the stronger contenders go against one another during the preps I can only evaluate how they won.

[BlueChip@DRF]

any concern though he beat absolutely nobody worth anything?

He has no control over who he runs against. He beat them soundly.

[SecretAgentMan]

You should also mention how wide he was throughout that race against that dawdling pace. Running well, while wide for an extended period of time against a slow pace is one of my strongest trip notes for a big next out performance. The fact he won under a hand ride and wasn't skiing in the lane tells me a lot about his ability to handle 10F and his quality.



Yes, well put on all your statements.......

[SecretAgentMan]

any concern though he beat absolutely nobody worth anything?



You gotta be kidding nads......most of these horses haven't beaten anyone worth noting. These horses are early on in their 3 year old careers.

Maybe they keep all these horses apart until the big day for a reason......they don't want the top horses to be battling each other in prep races. Firing Line went to Sunland to get the easy 100 points. IMO, if he ran in the SA derby, he would gave beaten Dortmund on his 3rd try after losing by a head twice.

If Dortmund, Carpe Diem, AP, Mubtaahij, Firing Line, Int Star all raced in the same prep, the KD wouldn't be as exciting for the fans, & the capping wouldn't be as unpredictable as it is.

Who did Big Brown beat in his preps? How about Barbaro? Mine that Bird? Animal Kingdom?, etc......

Giacomo ran against good competition......so did Monarchos, so did Funny Cide......I would say, 80% of the KD horses didn't run against anyone note worthy.

Frosted beat El Kabeir, & El Kabeir had won 3 of past 4 races going into the Wood......including 1 G2 race & 2 G3 races, no slouch there.

Also ran against Upstart twice, twice against Frammento......& twice against the pathetic ItsaKnockout......& beat Keen Ice by 8 lengths.

And they're all KD contenders.

[nads1420]

Not at all, because it was the way he won it. The derby favorites like AP, Dortmund and Carpe Diem also haven't beat anyone of note which was why we didn't see any high mutuels during the prep races. Since we've not seen many of the stronger contenders go against one another during the preps I can only evaluate how they won.


Dortmund beat Firing Line, I dont like how Upstart opened up on Frosted... kinda. Upstart is average at best

[Secondbest]

The PF's of Roman give Dortmund and AP low figures.While the other 3 give them much higher figures. It makes [to me] a confusing picture more confusing.
Mubtaahij is number one on Roman if the Racing Post is right also TFUS rates his race 2nd.I don"t know this race always makes me nuts.

[overthehill]

I think the is the best field of 3 year olds since affirmed and alydar. that year included believe it, sensitive prince and nasty and bold. I wll be surprised if someone other than AP D CD and the Dubai invader win. I think they are all horses of tremendous quality, and I dont think anyone else in the field can beat all 4 of them.

[nads1420]

I think the is the best field of 3 year olds since affirmed and alydar. that year included believe it, sensitive prince and nasty and bold. I wll be surprised if someone other than AP D CD and the Dubai invader win. I think they are all horses of tremendous quality, and I dont think anyone else in the field can beat all 4 of them.


very interesting take and you make good points.. it might just be that straight forward. how would you bet that though?

[Longshot]

Dortmund beat Firing Line, I dont like how Upstart opened up on Frosted... kinda. Upstart is average at best

Frosted was found to have a breathing problem after stopping in the race against Upstart and had a throat operation after the race to correct the problem.Frosted was able to then run his race in the Wood without the breathing problem.

[Thunder Gulch]

Count me on the Frosted bandwagon at anything close to future odds. I've seen a couple of comments about him only beating a bad Wood field by 2, but it was 5.3 L back to 3rd. He came home in 12.2, so there wasn't much room to stretch that lead when the pace was slow up front and others were finishing well. Big figure, wide on the turns, apparently had some left, and odds north of 15x.

[Sinner369]

Did you miss International Star?............I don't see his name anywhere on your list.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Did you miss International Star?............I don't see his name anywhere on your list.

A non-G1 winner at the top of the list. How did he get so many points?

[Secondbest]

I only took the top numbers.Unless I missed one he wasn't in the top 7 or so figures.

[raybo]

Don't have stats to back it up, but big figures don't seem to relate to Derby wins, IMO. The Derby is unlike any other race a horse has run, or will ever run. That in itself would seem to mean that "traditional" data research and its comparisons don't count for too much regarding predicting the winner of the Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Don't have stats to back it up, but big figures don't seem to relate to Derby wins, IMO. The Derby is unlike any other race a horse has run, or will ever run. That in itself would seem to mean that "traditional" data research and its comparisons don't count for too much regarding predicting the winner of the Derby.



Ray, who have you zeroed in on for the KD?

[raybo]

Ray, who have you zeroed in on for the KD?

Won't know that until I get the data file, and see the tote board close to the start of the race.

Most probable winner? AP or Dortman, but that is based on what I have seen thus far, not on what I will have to decide when it's time to bet.

I'll add that post positions, start abilities/tendencies, running styles and those inside and outside each horse, actual early speed (not just running style and early speed points, but actual velocities), perceived prospective pace battles, perceived late ability versus the probable pace scenario, weather and condition of the surface, etc., all come into play for me.

[raybo]

My "probable winner" horses are based on my "Class" ratings and "Distance" ratings. I think those 2 things, more often than not, are the two most important qualities in the Derby (aside from current form of course).

[luisbe]

Not at all, because it was the way he won it. The derby favorites like AP, Dortmund and Carpe Diem also haven't beat anyone of note which was why we didn't see any high mutuels during the prep races. Since we've not seen many of the stronger contenders go against one another during the preps I can only evaluate how they won.

Dortmund beat Firing Line twice who, himself, is a top contender.