Official: first 10 you will cross off in the KD

[boys at tosconova]

it has to be done. Stands will have to be made...unless you plan on wheeling AP. :D

obv post 1 will come into play. but we will deal with that later

please state reasons why as well


Rank Horse Trainer Points Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979
2 Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000
3 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000
4 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 160 $1,410,000
5 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200
6 Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000
7 Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028
8 El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792
9 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680
10 Far Right Ron Moquette 62 $585,906
11 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560
12 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000
13 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500
14 War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000
15 Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500
16 One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,000
17 Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400
18 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 34 $625,826
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250
20 Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980
21 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 30 $200,000
22 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520
23 Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
24 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $192,176
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $180,167

[boys at tosconova]

even more difficult decisions await to get this down further. i have a feeling intl star and frosted will get the axe as well.

3 Carpe Diem
8 El Kabeir
10 Far Right
11 Itsaknockout
13 Danzig Moon
14 War Story
15 Tencendur
17 Stanford
18 Mr. Z
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho

[SecretAgentMan]

What do you mean by crossing out? Are you talking about for the win, or will these horses place in the top 3 spots?

[boys at tosconova]

What do you mean by crossing out? Are you talking about for the win, or will these horses place in the top 3 spots?

horses you won't be using

[Huddy Goodjob]

Out of win slot
*reason

American P *AWD
Madefromlucky *Bris LP
Carpe *AWD
Keen Ice *AWD
Standford *Storm Cat/John White Strikes
Danzig Moon *Maiden Win Only/John White's Strikes
Frammento *Maiden Win Only
War Story *Gelding/John White's Strikes
Dortmond *AWD/LP
One Lucky *AWD/LP
Ocho *LP
Itsaknockout *AWD/LP
Upstart *LP
El Kabeir *LP
Firing Line *LP
Tencendur *AWD/LP
Materiality *LP
Mr Z *LP
Bolo *LP
Far Right *LP

[BlueChip@DRF]

Scratch from the top spot in red: I have a dirty dozen, but it doesn't mean they can't finish in the money.

1 International Star
2 Dortmund - Storm Cat
3 Carpe Diem - Storm Cat
4 American Pharaoh - best candidate to break the Storm Cat curse
5 Frosted - not considering for top spot, so he will probably win the Derby
6 Mubtaahij-IRE - best/only candidate to break the Dubai Import curse
7 Materiality - best/only candidate to break the Apollo curse
8 El Kabeir - Storm Cat
9 Upstart
10 Far Right
11 Itsaknockout
12 Firing Line - Storm Cat
13 Danzig Moon - only 1 win (maiden)
14 War Story
15 Tencendur
16 One Lucky Dane
17 Stanford - Storm Cat
18 Mr. Z - Storm Cat
19 Ocho Ocho Ocho
20 Bolo
21 Madefromlucky - tied #1 in DP, #2 in i-Chefs
22 Keen Ice - only 1 win (maiden)
23 Frammento - only 1 win (maiden)
24 Bold Conquest - only 1 win (maiden)
25 The Truth or Else - only 1 win (maiden)

Bold is what I am looking at.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Will you share the number of "I" Chefs for the contenders? Would really love to see where they stand.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Will you share the number of "I" Chefs for the contenders? Would really love to see where they stand.

International Star 7
Dortmund 7
Carpe Diem 5
American Pharaoh 4
Frosted 5
Mubtaahij-IRE 1
Materiality 1
El Kabeir 7
Upstart 7
Far Right 2 (1/8 Euro through Kantado)
Itsaknockout 4
Firing Line 3
Danzig Moon 11
War Story 7
Tencendur 4
One Lucky Dane 7
Stanford 8
Mr. Z 8 (F-Tail Gold Digger > Myrtlewood > Frizette)
Ocho Ocho Ocho 5
Bolo 3
Madefromlucky 9
Keen Ice 6 (Kris S in PwP - Princequillo)
Frammento 5
Bold Conquest 8
The Truth or Else 4

____________________

California Chrome 9
Orb 11 (highest DPs came in 1-2-3)
I'll Have Another 4
Super Saver 7
Mine That Bird 8 (highest I-chef in the field)

[boys at tosconova]

21 Madefromlucky - tied #1 in DP, #2 in i-Chefs

http://www.wearysloth.com/Gallery/ActorsJ/8591-27004.gif

[Huddy Goodjob]

Thank you for that. Do you happen to have a deeper breakdown of number of "I" Chefs for Derby winners? Say, going back to 2000.

[ReplayRandall]

International Star 7
Dortmund 7
Carpe Diem 5
American Pharaoh 4
Frosted 5
Mubtaahij-IRE 1
Materiality 1
El Kabeir 7
Upstart 7
Far Right 2 (1/8 Euro through Kantado)
Itsaknockout 4
Firing Line 3
Danzig Moon 11
War Story 7
Tencendur 4
One Lucky Dane 7
Stanford 8
Mr. Z 8 (F-Tail Gold Digger > Myrtlewood > Frizette)
Ocho Ocho Ocho 5
Bolo 3
Madefromlucky 9
Keen Ice 6 (Kris S in PwP - Princequillo)
Frammento 5
Bold Conquest 8
The Truth or Else 4

____________________

California Chrome 9
Orb 11 (highest DPs came in 1-2-3)
I'll Have Another 4
Super Saver 7
Mine That Bird 8 (highest I-chef in the field)
Top 2
Danzig Moon- 11
Madefromlucky- 9

Bottom 2
Mubtaahij-IRE- 1
Materiality- 1

Hmmmm......Now that's interesting.. :cool:

[SecretAgentMan]

Top 2
Danzig Moon- 11
Madefromlucky- 9

Bottom 2
Mubtaahij-IRE- 1
Materiality- 1

Hmmmm......Now that's interesting.. :cool:


Yes, & if there's a Giacomo in this field, its Danzig Moon......also, this secures my thinking of Mubtaahij not being in the top spot.

[boys at tosconova]

i dont know wut the luv is on danzig moon for. somebody had to finish 2nd in the last race. beat a tiring ocho and passed a 90-1 shot. fact is he didn't show that much even to place, and like most of the prep races...nobody showed much except the divisional leaders.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Top 2
Danzig Moon- 11
Madefromlucky- 9

Bottom 2
Mubtaahij-IRE- 1
Materiality- 1

Hmmmm......Now that's interesting.. :cool:

Not all sires have been given labels, especially European sires.
Animal Kingdom has 0 points. But I've learned to look at those who have at least 1/8th European blood. Far Right so far fits this bill, along with another 1/16th through Caro.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Yes, & if there's a Giacomo in this field, its Danzig Moon......also, this secures my thinking of Mubtaahij not being in the top spot.

More like Mine That Bird. He had 8 points. Everyone else in the field had 7 or less.

[nads1420]

i cant eliminate 10 :blush: this is gonna be a rough year to land on a horse... 1 day i wake up and go Carpe Diem the next day Firing Line next day Mubtaahij, next day i wake up and say am I over thinking this... American Pharoah looked amazing... my heart wants me to pick Dortmund cause i was such a Big Brown fan and he made me some good money... then i start thinking dont pick Dortmund becuase of your a fan of Big Brown then I think im picking against Dortmund cause I dont want to think im picking him because im a fan of Big Brown.. etc :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: my head is spinning :faint:


my pick is going to change numerous times... im clueless in this one thus far :confused:

[BlueChip@DRF]

i cant eliminate 10 :blush: this is gonna be a rough year to land on a horse... 1 day i wake up and go Carpe Diem the next day Firing Line next day Mubtaahij, next day i wake up and say am I over thinking this... American Pharoah looked amazing... my heart wants me to pick Dortmund cause i was such a Big Brown fan and he made me some good money... then i start thinking dont pick Dortmund becuase of your a fan of Big Brown then I think im picking against Dortmund cause I dont want to think im picking him because im a fan of Big Brown.. etc :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: my head is spinning :faint:

my pick is going to change numerous times... im clueless in this one thus far :confused:

What is the problem? Haven't you heard of darts?
And ask your relatives to pick a number from 4(5)-20.

[PhantomOnTour]

Frosted or Upstart will win the race.
There, done, finito ! :D

Get on with your day :cool:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Frosted or Upstart will win the race.
There, done, finito ! :D

Get on with your day :cool:

I know. At least there's the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight later that night.

[vaffanculo]

I know. At least there's the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight later that night.

Maybe. They still haven't put tickets on sale. :ThmbDown:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Maybe. They still haven't put tickets on sale. :ThmbDown:

What now???? Someone chickening out again?

[vaffanculo]

What now???? Someone chickening out again?

I doubt it. Too much money is at stake. But Mayweather insisted that he be the lead promoter for the fight, and he's handled it poorly, to say the least.

We sit less than 3 weeks until the fight, and no tickets have been placed for sale. No closed circuit viewing parties. Nothing.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I doubt it. Too much money is at stake. But Mayweather insisted that he be the lead promoter for the fight, and he's handled it poorly, to say the least.

We sit less than 3 weeks until the fight, and no tickets have been placed for sale. No closed circuit viewing parties. Nothing.

He is the A of Holes.

[PICSIX]

Cross from the win spot all entries that are eligible for N2L :eek:

[BlueChip@DRF]

Cross from the win spot all entries that are eligible for N2L :eek:

That is a nice way of putting it. Giacomo is the only Derby winner that qualified before he ran.

[boys at tosconova]

it would be a miracle for a giacomo type to win here.

if 1 figure horse fails for the win spot there's 5 more right behind him to take his place....if you're 15th on the list some kooky stuff will really have to happen to get there

there is an upper and lower division of talent this year, and lets be serious, this isn't even a debate.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Interesting thing is, most of the top tier contenders has similar running styles...I'm looking for a horse who can close strongly running wide, believe that's what it will take this year.

Or, release a closing run up the rail.

AP looks super strong tho..but excited to see who he handles a crowd...he is used to running a lone.

[boys at tosconova]

Interesting thing is, most of the top tier contenders has similar running styles...I'm looking for a horse who can close strongly running wide, believe that's what it will take this year.

Or, release a closing run up the rail.

AP looks super strong tho..but excited to see who he handles a crowd...he is used to running a lone.

i don't think closers are going to sniff anything this year but the butts of the top tier horses many lengths back.

[SecretAgentMan]

i don't think closers are going to sniff anything this year but the butts of the top tier horses many lengths back.



Lmao.......I see the sh*t talking has begun, haha!

[Huddy Goodjob]

i don't think closers are going to sniff anything this year but the butts of the top tier horses many lengths back.

Hahaha...I can't disagree, yet I can't agree. Bris LP and the AWD angles tell a different story...I'll give AP the best shot, on perceived ability. Think it is gonna be close at the wire.