Aqueduct vs. Pimlico

[andtheyreoff]

So I was looking at the cards for Aqueduct and Pimlico for Thursday and Friday, and, despite the massive purses at Aqueduct, Pimlico absolutely blows Aqueduct out of the water in terms of field size:

Thursday:
Aqueduct: 8 races, 59 entries
Pimlico: 9 races, 99 entries

Friday:
Aqueduct: 8 races, 58 entries
Pimlico: 9 races, 96 entries

And there aren't many bad races at Pimlico, either: lots of good allowances races. At Aqueduct, not so much.

To me, that's absolutely mind-boggling. How can NYRA, supposedly the top circuit in the country, and with gigantic purses, draw this kind of garbage for their races, while the entry box in Maryland is overflowing? With those kind of purses, you'd figure those numbers would be reversed.

The big question: will it keep up at Belmont, or will NYRA be able to right the ship? Another big question: will bettors respond to the great product Pimlico is offering?

[RXB]

One difference is that Pimlico is running four days a week, rather than five like Aqueduct. All three NYRA tracks averaged fewer than eight starters per race last year, even mighty Saratoga. Time for NY to get real about how many races per week should be conducted.

Maryland racing is ready for a real renaissance, except that the takeout is too high. For sure the Pimlico product is more enticing right now than NYRA's but high takeout and modest pools keep a lot of bettors away.

[gheuks]

Pimlico's card Friday is stellar. With turf season opening, look for strong fields from pimlico/laurel. There have also been lots of NY barns shipping in... Rice, Rodriguez, Pletcher, McGlaughlin...Keep an eye out on MD racing. The racing is improving drastically, and oh by the way.... The have finally started making improvements to the facilities at Pimlico and Laurel. They still have a LOT of work to do, but its still progress

[charm city whizz]

Pimlico's card Friday is stellar. With turf season opening, look for strong fields from pimlico/laurel. There have also been lots of NY barns shipping in... Rice, Rodriguez, Pletcher, McGlaughlin...Keep an eye out on MD racing. The racing is improving drastically, and oh by the way.... The have finally started making improvements to the facilities at Pimlico and Laurel. They still have a LOT of work to do, but its still progress


Correct, was in the sports palace Friday and it's really nice now with the wall knocked down, really enjoy myself there as its a great racing venue (cj prob doesn't agree lolol)

Gonna be out of town till Sunday if you go next time come say hi!!

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not sure that Aqueduct's incentives drive them to want fewer races with more starters per race.

The incentives are what moves the market, not necessarily what we deem to be 'quality'.

They may in fact be, but we would need to actually look at what's driving the market.

[OTM Al]

The astute analysis here fails to recognize in the 2 days in question Aqueduct is running 3 turf races and Pimlico is running 9. While field size in the dirt races at Pimlico may still be larger dirt only, much of the disparity is accounted for by controlling for surface.

[The Hawk]

How can NYRA, supposedly the top circuit in the country...

I think this is the part that's throwing you: Faulty premise.

[RXB]

The astute analysis here fails to recognize in the 2 days in question Aqueduct is running 3 turf races and Pimlico is running 9. While field size in the dirt races at Pimlico may still be larger dirt only, much of the disparity is accounted for by controlling for surface.

8 turf races at Pim, not 9.

10 dirt races at Pim, 93 entrants.

13 dirt races at Aqu, 86 entrants. (avg 6.6)

[OTM Al]

8 turf races at Pim, not 9.

10 dirt races at Pim, 93 entrants.

13 dirt races at Aqu, 86 entrants. (avg 6.6)

You are right. I somehow came up with 5 on Friday, but clearly miscounted. And, as I thought, Pimlico dirt races are still larger on average, but the disparity is much smaller. One of those Pimlico turf races had 17 entries in it. Skews things a bit when not controlling for surface. Once weather has stabilized a bit more, I think you will see NY tracks having bigger fields than MD tracks again. Flew right over Belmont Sunday coming home and they are getting it in shape as it will be opening in just a couple weeks.

[RXB]

Maryland's average field size was actually slightly higher than NYRA's last year, and Maryland will increase for sure this year. Whereas NYRA will be lucky to hold even, more likely a small decrease.

[Cholly]

There have also been lots of NY barns shipping in... Rice, Rodriguez, Pletcher, McGlaughlin...

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for PIM's improved fortunes...but this does raise the question of why these trainers would incur the expense of shipping to run for lesser purses. Hate to be the suspicious type, but does MD have different testing protocols than NY?

[classhandicapper]

It's hard to know what's going on at NYRA form the outside, but one could get the impression that conditions are still not ideal for making positive changes on all fronts given the state's involvement.

[ronsmac]

For the purses they offer, Nyra's field sizes have sucked for a while. The dirt racing is just embarrassing.

[OTM Al]

For the purses they offer, Nyra's field sizes have sucked for a while. The dirt racing is just embarrassing.

Yet people are still betting heavily on them.

[ronsmac]

Yet people are still betting heavily on them.That is true. People will bet a 6f race with 5 horses and a 2/5 favorite at Aqu. before they'll bet a 12 horse field at Oaklawn. God bless them.

[andtheyreoff]

Yet people are still betting heavily on them.

Yeah, because of brand recognition. You could have three horse fields with a 1/9 favorite every race, and people would still bet just because it's at NYRA.

And that's a huge shame, because it's taking away handle from tracks that actually have good racing.

[classhandicapper]

Yeah, because of brand recognition. You could have three horse fields with a 1/9 favorite every race, and people would still bet just because it's at NYRA.

And that's a huge shame, because it's taking away handle from tracks that actually have good racing.


That could be a temporary state of affairs. It takes a long time to either build or destroy a great brand. That goes double because NYRA has the advantage of the bigger and more liquid pools that big players need. But if the gambling opportunities are clearly better elsewhere, what starts out as a trickle will eventually become a flood.

[Cholly]

Yeah, because of brand recognition. You could have three horse fields with a 1/9 favorite every race, and people would still bet just because it's at NYRA.

And that's a huge shame, because it's taking away handle from tracks that actually have good racing.

This is total bullshit: the first at AQ today has four horses, not three--and the favorite is only 1-2, not 1-9. Plus the 2nd and third races have FIVE entries.

If you don't quit exaggerating, you going to lose all credibility. :D

[gheuks]

Saturday entries for pimlico just came out. Another strong card with a bunch of NY shippers.

[Robert Goren]

This is total bullshit: the first at AQ today has four horses, not three--and the favorite is only 1-2, not 1-9. Plus the 2nd and third races have FIVE entries.

If you don't quit exaggerating, you going to lose all credibility. :D Most sarcastic post of the year to date. :lol:

[Tom]

I thought he was serious when started reading it! :lol:

[JohnGalt1]

Doesn't Pimlico have new management from Gulfstream?

Gulfstream races almost all have full fields.

[andtheyreoff]

Saturday entries for pimlico just came out. Another strong card with a bunch of NY shippers.

This is in stark contrast to Aqueduct, which drew a whopping NINE entries for their whole daily double on Saturday.

Seriously, anyone who is not required by law to play NYRA who still bets them has to be out of their mind.

[charm city whizz]

A side note the MJC needs to race more days at pimlico then they do now, a meet in the fall would be great laurel is least fan friendly place to watch a race where pimlico is one of the best

[RXB]

A side note the MJC needs to race more days at pimlico then they do now, a meet in the fall would be great laurel is least fan friendly place to watch a race where pimlico is one of the best

I wouldn't be surprised if they run in September at Pimlico at some point, but not any later. Laurel is the winterized facility, plus it has that extra wide grass course that can be used heavily in Oct and Nov when a lot of turf courses have closed and guys with grass horses are looking for somewhere to run.

In my dream world, Delaware Park would shorten its meet and fit into that summer window when Maryland isn't racing, so there would be a circuit like this:

October-March: Laurel
April-Preakness: Pimlico
late May - mid August: Delaware
late August - Labour Day: Timonium plus either Colonial or Delaware
September: Pimlico or Laurel

Jacobs has said in the past year or two that he wanted to run a short meet with good purses at Colonial in the fall. Concurrently with Timonium might make more sense as he'd get lots of turf shippers from Maryland, plus Labour Day weekend would be an ideal landing spot for the Virginia Derby as there aren't any other major 3YO turf races close by on the calendar.

[gheuks]

Pimlico used to run September, following timoniums 10 day stand. Laurel would then open the first or second week of October for the Maryland million. September racing shifted to laurel around 2004 after the widening of the turf course.

[RXB]

As a simulcast bettor I prefer Laurel. Can run more grass races there, plus Laurel's dirt course offers a much larger array of distances than Pimlico's.

[Robert Fischer]

you have to use the pimlico money clip

http://oi61.tinypic.com/28gvyqf.jpg

[ReplayRandall]

you have to use the pimlico money clip

http://oi61.tinypic.com/28gvyqf.jpg
Other than the credit cards, sorry your clip is empty of cash.. :)

[Robert Fischer]

Other than the credit cards, sorry your clip is empty of cash.. :)

I blame the challenging full fields ;)

[ReplayRandall]

I blame the challenging full fields ;)
You're a good sport and a real fighter......Glad to see you're back, hopefully full strength soon... ;)

[Stillriledup]

That is true. People will bet a 6f race with 5 horses and a 2/5 favorite at Aqu. before they'll bet a 12 horse field at Oaklawn. God bless them.

I would never even consider betting a 12 horse field at Oaklawn vs a 5 horse field at Aqu for the simple fact that it takes more than twice as long to handicap 12 horses, i can handicap and bet a lot more 5 and 6 horse fields if i just stick to races with 9 horses and less, which is what i'm doing for the most part.

[Saratoga_Mike]

SRU - you've made this same ridiculous point in the past, as if you're time-starved.

[proximity]

I would never even consider betting a 12 horse field at Oaklawn vs a 5 horse field at Aqu for the simple fact that it takes more than twice as long to handicap 12 horses, i can handicap and bet a lot more 5 and 6 horse fields if i just stick to races with 9 horses and less, which is what i'm doing for the most part.

I would contend (and I think most here would agree) that you're much more likely to find an overlay in the 12 horse race at oaklawn...... so you can identify an edge and a bet and the whole process is actually worthwhile, entertaining, and potentially profitable.

in a 5 or 6 horser the public has to make an average error of 3% per horse (EVERY HORSE IN THE RACE) just for you to beat the takeout, let alone have any kind of advantage. I know you're good and racing is a huge part of your life but the other bettors today just aren't that bad.

[andtheyreoff]

I would never even consider betting a 12 horse field at Oaklawn vs a 5 horse field at Aqu for the simple fact that it takes more than twice as long to handicap 12 horses, i can handicap and bet a lot more 5 and 6 horse fields if i just stick to races with 9 horses and less, which is what i'm doing for the most part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxjSuQXPAak

[Relwob Owner]

I would never even consider betting a 12 horse field at Oaklawn vs a 5 horse field at Aqu for the simple fact that it takes more than twice as long to handicap 12 horses, i can handicap and bet a lot more 5 and 6 horse fields if i just stick to races with 9 horses and less, which is what i'm doing for the most part.


If you didn't post as much on here, you would then have more than enough time to handicap those twelve horse fields.

[Stillriledup]

SRU - you've made this same ridiculous point in the past, as if you're time-starved.

What's ridiculous about it? Its easier to handicap a small field vs a big field, not sure why this takes a rocket scientist to understand.

[Stillriledup]

If you didn't post as much on here, you would then have more than enough time to handicap those twelve horse fields.

But i would still prefer to handicap smaller fields. Why would i bet on a race that has 12 horses when i could bet one with 6 that's easier to pick the winner?

[andtheyreoff]

But i would still prefer to handicap smaller fields. Why would i bet on a race that has 12 horses when i could bet one with 6 that's easier to pick the winner?

Because usually there's better value in bigger fields than in smaller ones? How many times will you find a great bet in a six horse field, compared to a bigger one?

And virtually every horseplayer disagrees with you--studies have proven that handles are larger on bigger fields.

[Stillriledup]

Because usually there's better value in bigger fields than in smaller ones? How many times will you find a great bet in a six horse field, compared to a bigger one?

And virtually every horseplayer disagrees with you--studies have proven that handles are larger on bigger fields.

If every horseplayer disagrees with me and at the same time, i've found something that works for me, isn't that a GOOD thing? Isnt' it good to be "Against" every other player?

I've found plenty of great bets in short fields. I can spend a lot more time on them. When you're grinding on those 12 horse fields, i'm skipping them and spending more time on the shorter fields.

If what you say is true that all the "great bettors" are spending most of their time on the big fields, that leaves the small fields to me and little old ladies from Pasadena.

As Mike Singletary once said

yO1k_98QX_g

[Cholly]

I would never even consider betting a 12 horse field at Oaklawn vs a 5 horse field at Aqu for the simple fact that it takes more than twice as long to handicap 12 horses, i can handicap and bet a lot more 5 and 6 horse fields if i just stick to races with 9 horses and less, which is what i'm doing for the most part.
SRU, is your preference for 6-horse fields influenced by the fact that dice only have six sides?

I can dig that, man...Have been known to go there myself

[ronsmac]

I would never even consider betting a 12 horse field at Oaklawn vs a 5 horse field at Aqu for the simple fact that it takes more than twice as long to handicap 12 horses, i can handicap and bet a lot more 5 and 6 horse fields if i just stick to races with 9 horses and less, which is what i'm doing for the most part.Sru you must be in heaven today? Aqueduct has nothing but small fields today. I'm envious of you. I wish I could garner happiness so easily. I'm not joking or trying to be cute.

[Tom]

At SRU Downs, posts 7,8,9 are in the auxiliary gate!

[Saratoga_Mike]

But i would still prefer to handicap smaller fields. Why would i bet on a race that has 12 horses when i could bet one with 6 that's easier to pick the winner?

Yet, you have nothing but contempt for the dime super. Do you see at least a small degree of incongruity in your thought process?

[Kash$]

14 enter in the Henry Clark on Saturday at Pimlico, Aqueduct having trouble filling out the Danger Hour. :confused:

[andtheyreoff]

Not surprisingly, handle was up at Pimlico from last year: $2,426,921 today, as opposed to $2,331,447 on the comparable date in 2014.

Aqueduct's handle, meanwhile, plunged, being down more than $2 million compared to 2014. Happy to see bettors are starting to wake up.

[Stillriledup]

Yet, you have nothing but contempt for the dime super. Do you see at least a small degree of incongruity in your thought process?

What does liking to bet short fields have to do with dime supers? I'm missing your point.

[Stillriledup]

SRU, is your preference for 6-horse fields influenced by the fact that dice only have six sides?

I can dig that, man...Have been known to go there myself

I just think its easier to pick a winner, or hit a tri and it takes me less time to handicap.

[therussmeister]

I just think its easier to pick a winner, or hit a tri and it takes me less time to handicap.
I'm going to take the very rare position and agree with SRU. Furthermore, I'm going to take a provocative stance and claim I think the crowd does their worst job in short fields. I suspect a lot of the smartest bettors simply do not look at short fields leaving the level of competition weaker.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I'm going to take the very rare position and agree with SRU. Furthermore, I'm going to take a provocative stance and claim I think the crowd does their worst job in short fields. I suspect a lot of the smartest bettors simply do not look at short fields leaving the level of competition weaker.

Always risky to agree with SRU - do you measure your ROI on small fields vs large? Is it higher?

[ronsmac]

Another awesome day at Aqueduct. 50 horses on an 8 race card. Absolute paradise for lovers of small fields.

[charm city whizz]

Aqueduct was a disgrace today

The action was awesome at pimlico today even though I bet it at Mohegan sun, that dq in the 9th was sweet

[Stillriledup]

Always risky to agree with SRU - do you measure your ROI on small fields vs large? Is it higher?

If its smart to bet large fields, that means the smartest bettors in racing are spending a lot of time on these races, which means they're spending less time on the shorter fields. If your "competition" is weaker in the shorter fields, isn't that the way to go?

To me, the only real difference between 6 horse fields and 12 horse fields is that there's 6 more horses who can beat your bet. I know people will say that its much harder to catch a 20 dollar winner in a 6 horse field vs a 12 horse field, but price and "value" are not the same.

[andtheyreoff]

Aqueduct was a disgrace today

The action was awesome at pimlico today even though I bet it at Mohegan sun, that dq in the 9th was sweet

Handle was also up more than $800k compared to last year--very impressive! Here's hoping tomorrow's a great day, too.

[PaceAdvantage]

Glad to see the complete and total takeover of NYRA by the State of New York has continued to provide us fans with an infinitely improved racing product, compared to the days when those evil guys like Charlie Hayward ran the place.... :rolleyes:

[OTM Al]

Glad to see the complete and total takeover of NYRA by the State of New York has continued to provide us fans with an infinitely improved racing product, compared to the days when those evil guys like Charlie Hayward ran the place.... :rolleyes:

Saw Charlie last time I went there, calendar day I think. Hanging out with other patrons and playing the horses. Not sure the current boss even knows where the windows are. I see worse things in the future and that benefits no one.

[PaceAdvantage]

Saw Charlie last time I went there, calendar day I think. Hanging out with other patrons and playing the horses.Never met the man, but from what I've heard and read about him, this is in character.

He'd rather be on the apron with a beer, a rarity among racetrack CEOs...it's a good thing we got rid of all that after the takeout snafu...things are so much better now... :bang:

[Saratoga_Mike]

Saw Charlie last time I went there, calendar day I think. Hanging out with other patrons and playing the horses. Not sure the current boss even knows where the windows are. I see worse things in the future and that benefits no one.

Field sizes seem to be a big problem - purses certainly aren't lacking. Do you believe mgt is behind the current horse shortage?

[PaceAdvantage]

Field size seems to be a big problem - purses certainly aren't lacking. Do you believe mgt is behind the current horse shortage?The racing office has been taken over by West Coast guys as of late, so it's probably just a coincidence that field sizes have begun mimicking California as well... :rolleyes:

[Saratoga_Mike]

The racing office has been taken over by West Coast guys as of late, so it's probably just a coincidence that field sizes have begun mimicking California as well... :rolleyes:

I didn't know that. I just don't understand the field-size issue. Maybe it's as simple as too much (slot-induced) supply on the east coast.

[PaceAdvantage]

I was half-joking with my last comment...I'm sure it's just a coincidence that our California friends brought with them SoCal-style field sizes here to NYRA.

Field size has always been a problem this time of year at Aqueduct, although it seems particularly bad this year...

[sammy the sage]

for ALL the whining...NY....handled 4x's as much on sat. w/dismal card vs an excellent card at pimlico... :faint:

[OTM Al]

I was half-joking with my last comment...I'm sure it's just a coincidence that our California friends brought with them SoCal-style field sizes here to NYRA.

Field size has always been a problem this time of year at Aqueduct, although it seems particularly bad this year...
A couple 4 horse races at blessed Keeneland the other day as well. Since they do everything the right way always, one must figure it is bad all over.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Near-record crowd at KEE on Saturday. Perfect weather. It is well managed, but it should be compared to Saratoga, not AQU (as OMTAl knows).

[OTM Al]

Near-record crowd at KEE on Saturday. Perfect weather. It is well managed, but it should be compared to Saratoga, not AQU (as OMTAl knows).

Not really a good comparison. Keeneland in all seriousness is its own thing. Maybe closer to Del Mar, but that's not even quite right.

[gheuks]

Where can you find daily handle numbers?

[andtheyreoff]

for ALL the whining...NY....handled 4x's as much on sat. w/dismal card vs an excellent card at pimlico... :faint:

Still, compared to last year, handle was up at Pimlico Saturday, despite one fewer race than the same day in 2014.

Regarding Keeneland: despite supposedly smaller fields there, they averaged 9.7 entries per race, as opposed to only 7.7 entries per race at Aqueduct.

[RXB]

for ALL the whining...NY....handled 4x's as much on sat. w/dismal card vs an excellent card at pimlico... :faint:

Aqu: $5.7 million
Pim: $2.5 million

2.3x, not 4x.

[affirmedny]

With Gulfstream open year round now with slot infused purses, there's no reason for NY trainers to rush back from FL, especially since the weather hasn't been good until very recently. Mott, Pletcher, Albertrani, Clement, Zito etc. still have a LOT of horses in FL. Also Randi Persaud, who was good for 3 or 4 entries per day, seems to have relocated there. When Keeneland closes and derby week is over there hould be a lot more horses coming back to NY.