American Pharoah/Dortmund

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Are they in your KD top 10?

I've completely crossed both off my list. Not even 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

I'll let them prove me wrong.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Are they in your KD top 10?

I've completely crossed both off my list. Not even 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

I'll let them prove me wrong.

I will have them under Danzig Moon in an Exacta Key.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I will have them under Danzig Moon in an Exacta Key.

You need to get off Danzig Moon because I like Danzig Moon. Hater. :)

[jahura2]

Are they in your KD top 10?

I've completely crossed both off my list. Not even 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

I'll let them prove me wrong.

They are in my top 10 but that doesn't necessarily mean they will be on my tickets. Right now they look at the top of their game, but can they get better? Post Position and odds will determine if they are playable to me, I do consider a few other horses that I see as getting better that will have juicier odds (Frosted, Firing Line). Still 3 weeks to go a lot can happen in that time.

[BlueChip@DRF]

You need to get off Danzig Moon because I like Danzig Moon. Hater. :)

Sorry about that. I guess now everyone will know the key to the bottom spot of the superfecta. I was heavy on Went The Day Well and Shackleford and look what happened.... :bang:

[nads1420]

Are they in your KD top 10?

I've completely crossed both off my list. Not even 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

I'll let them prove me wrong.


did you let California Chrome prove you wrong last year? Iv noticed some horse players tend to let horses like Smarty Jones, Big Brown, & California Chrome "prove them wrong" over and over but dont ever learn their lesson. Im not saying these horses are the lock the CC was because not only was he a beast but his competition left something to be desired... but I think you almost gotta have a ticket with one of them on the top of a exotic.

[f2tornado]

For now, I would most likely box AP, Danzig Moon, Frosted, and Mubtaahij then wheel AP over some stuff for the tri and super. I'm tossing Dortmund. Maybe use him on bottom of tri and/or super.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

did you let California Chrome prove you wrong last year? Iv noticed some horse players tend to let horses like Smarty Jones, Big Brown, & California Chrome "prove them wrong" over and over but dont ever learn their lesson. Im not saying these horses are the lock the CC was because not only was he a beast but his competition left something to be desired... but I think you almost gotta have a ticket with one of them on the top of a exotic.

Yes they did.

But, Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Giacomo, War Emblem, and Charasmatic tell a much better, and much healthier wagering story.

[burnsy]

Yes they did.

But, Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Giacomo, War Emblem, and Charasmatic tell a much better, and much healthier wagering story.

Shhhhh, you can hit a year like that and it makes up for years of betting ....and years of losing the derby. Of course, if you never take a chance you and I both know you will never be telling that "wagering" story. Or signing for it.... We agree in both threads. I like the way you bet.

Getting back to the subject at hand. As of right now Dortmund is the one that I most think won't make the distance.......American Pharaoh I would probably include on some tickets.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm still debating which one I will stick in my tris & supers.......IMO, both will not come in the money, if not both like you stated.

There's a time to play favs & a time not to.......was on Chrome, Big Brown & Smarty Jones pretty big, but I just feel these favs this year won't win the KD.

I could be wrong tho, that's what makes the KD so much fun......I like Firing Line more than Dortmund, & with that said, I think Dortmund places & AP doesnt., but my thinking could change once I see the post positions.......what if AP gets post #1, or post #20?

I know Baffert is very high on AP, & Zayat thinks he's the best he's ever had.......

The next 3 weeks, you will see a ton of hype on AP & Dortmund, don't let it change your mind if you like someone else.

Zayat is due for a KD win, but so are several other owners like the Ramsey's, etc......

[minethatbird08]

Danzig Moon for me too. Although I will probably just throw a decent show bet on him and fund everything else around that play. I know it's kind of a wimpy play but right now I feel somewhat paralyzed by the strength of this field. Regardless, looking forward to this years KD.

Obviously, still need to wait for post draw and weather before my final decision.

[SecretAgentMan]

Danzig Moon for me too. Although I will probably just throw a decent show bet on him and fund everything else around that play. I know it's kind of a wimpy play but right now I feel somewhat paralyzed by the strength of this field. Regardless, looking forward to this years KD.

Obviously, still need to wait for post draw and weather before my final decision.


KD offers some really good prices on show wagering......last year, you would have doubled your money on Chrome. Commanding Curve paid $15.40 to show.......$200 to show would have gotten back $1,540

Lots of potential money to be made......

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Shhhhh, you can hit a year like that and it makes up for years of betting ....and years of losing the derby. Of course, if you never take a chance you and I both know you will never be telling that "wagering" story. Or signing for it.... We agree in both threads. I like the way you bet.

Getting back to the subject at hand. As of right now Dortmund is the one that I most think won't make the distance.......American Pharaoh I would probably include on some tickets.

Yes, sorry. We must be quiet. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Danzig Moon for me too. Although I will probably just throw a decent show bet on him and fund everything else around that play. I know it's kind of a wimpy play but right now I feel somewhat paralyzed by the strength of this field. Regardless, looking forward to this years KD.

Obviously, still need to wait for post draw and weather before my final decision.


Cashing in a ticket is better than not. :cool:

[nads1420]

Yes they did.

But, Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Giacomo, War Emblem, and Charasmatic tell a much better, and much healthier wagering story.


did those horses have the perceived level of top tier horses thats this derby does?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

did those horses have the perceived level of top tier horses thats this derby does?

Every Derby does before it is ran.

[nads1420]

thats not true

2011 Nehro and Dialed In

2012 Bodemeister and Union Rags

2009 Pioneerof the nile & Friesen Fire



think these 2 are much better right now then they were at the same time

[nads1420]

https://twitter.com/bwaynelukas/status/587046798826442752

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'm still debating which one I will stick in my tris & supers.......IMO, both will not come in the money, if not both like you stated.

There's a time to play favs & a time not to.......was on Chrome, Big Brown & Smarty Jones pretty big, but I just feel these favs this year won't win the KD.

I could be wrong tho, that's what makes the KD so much fun......I like Firing Line more than Dortmund, & with that said, I think Dortmund places & AP doesnt., but my thinking could change once I see the post positions.......what if AP gets post #1, or post #20?

I know Baffert is very high on AP, & Zayat thinks he's the best he's ever had.......

The next 3 weeks, you will see a ton of hype on AP & Dortmund, don't let it change your mind if you like someone else.

Zayat is due for a KD win, but so are several other owners like the Ramsey's, etc......


There is the Pick-4... You can debate and worry only about the Win spot rather than guessing who is going to be 2nd best that day.

[SecretAgentMan]

There is the Pick-4... You can debate and worry only about the Win spot rather than guessing who is going to be 2nd best that day.



Its hard enough to pick 1 winner in 1 race, now you want me to pick 4 winners in 4 different races? I only focus on the triple crown races.........plus the payout is astronomical in the KD, compared to the other races.

The money invested in the KD is definitely worth risk vs reward.

[Valuist]

did you let California Chrome prove you wrong last year? Iv noticed some horse players tend to let horses like Smarty Jones, Big Brown, & California Chrome "prove them wrong" over and over but dont ever learn their lesson. Im not saying these horses are the lock the CC was because not only was he a beast but his competition left something to be desired... but I think you almost gotta have a ticket with one of them on the top of a exotic.

After all, there was what, 30 years of losing favorites in the Derby? Nothing wrong with taking a stand against the favorites. Just because a few have won in recent years doesn't reverse the earlier results.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Its hard enough to pick 1 winner in 1 race, now you want me to pick 4 winners in 4 different races? I only focus on the triple crown races.........plus the payout is astronomical in the KD, compared to the other races.

The money invested in the KD is definitely worth risk vs reward.

Then it all starts getting the first two in order right.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Current overseas bookmaker odds:

AP 11/4
Dort 9/2

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/future-racing/kentucky-derby

[Some_One]

Current overseas bookmaker odds:

AP 11/4
Dort 9/2

http://www.paddypower.com/racing/future-racing/kentucky-derby

And there is a 20 out there for Frosted, wow, better BRIS LP / SR then both AP and Dort, just much less hype.

[maddog42]

Shhhhh, you can hit a year like that and it makes up for years of betting ....and years of losing the derby. Of course, if you never take a chance you and I both know you will never be telling that "wagering" story. Or signing for it.... We agree in both threads. I like the way you bet.

Getting back to the subject at hand. As of right now Dortmund is the one that I most think won't make the distance.......American Pharaoh I would probably include on some tickets.

I like your thinking. I don't think it will happen, but if neither of these horses wins, then there will be HUGE exotics. I will probably key both of these horses underneath a few horses. Maybe 5 or 6. Favorites are not the horses to put on top in the derby.

[OCF]

Any opinions on the effect of (only?) 21 days rest for American Pharoah between the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby?

I've gotta wonder if Baffert and Espinoza were taking that into account when he was eased near the finish and also pulled up relatively quickly on the gallop-out.

Winners of the AD haven't done well in the KD recently (1 win in 30 years), maybe the 21 day rest had something to do with it.

The same was true of the Blue Grass Derby and this year the BGD changed from 21 days out to 28 days out. The BGD had been 21 days out for 26 years.

[f2tornado]

Three other horses finished second in Ark Derby in last 30 years then came back to win the Roses: Super Saver, Grindstone, and Lil E Tee. Go back another couple years and Sunny's Halo won both. That's a Derby winner about once every six years. Perhaps more interesting, of all horses running in the Rebel only two have won the Derby; Sunny's Halo and Smarty Jones.

[Stoleitbreezing]

For now, I would most likely box AP, Danzig Moon, Frosted, and Mubtaahij then wheel AP over some stuff for the tri and super. I'm tossing Dortmund. Maybe use him on bottom of tri and/or super.

I'm tossing Dortmund as well, and using AP with Frosted and International Star in my tris and supers. I think its silly to throw AP out just because he won't be +10-1 on derby day. If you hit the tri or the super in the derby you'll get paid off cause its the DERBY. There will be plenty of dead money to inflate exotics. don't just throw the best horse off your tickets cause of the odds. He won't be 1-9 derby day. CC was 5/2 in the derby last year as the stone favorite without another horse battling for favoritism, you really think AP will be lower or that low with Carpe and Dortmund in the field? I think not.

[OCF]

Three other horses finished second in Ark Derby in last 30 years then came back to win the Roses: Super Saver, Grindstone, and Lil E Tee. Go back another couple years and Sunny's Halo won both. That's a Derby winner about once every six years. Perhaps more interesting, of all horses running in the Rebel only two have won the Derby; Sunny's Halo and Smarty Jones.

Super Saver, Grindstone and Lil E Tee all finished second by a neck.

Perhaps the AD winners tend to be peaking in the AD and the 2nd place finishers tend to be ascending and benefit later from the tough race?

It's hard for me to believe that one extra or one less week's rest is meaningless.

Which way do you want it with Sunny's Halo? ;)

[nads1420]

I'm tossing Dortmund as well, and using AP with Frosted and International Star in my tris and supers. I think its silly to throw AP out just because he won't be +10-1 on derby day. If you hit the tri or the super in the derby you'll get paid off cause its the DERBY. There will be plenty of dead money to inflate exotics. don't just throw the best horse off your tickets cause of the odds. He won't be 1-9 derby day. CC was 5/2 in the derby last year as the stone favorite without another horse battling for favoritism, you really think AP will be lower or that low with Carpe and Dortmund in the field? I think not.


Im guess AP goes off 4 or 5-1

[f2tornado]

Which way do you want it with Sunny's Halo? ;)

AP is either the next Sunny's Halo the pull off the Rebel-Ark-KY Derby trifecta or he's not. His Brisnet LP figure is mildly disconcerting. His Rebel and Ark EP and LP numbers essentially flip flopped. Can he achieve a high number in both? Such a nice looking effortless stride but can this horse improve? I'm gonna be using on top with others but not with my usual authority.

[Stoleitbreezing]

AP is either the next Sunny's Halo the pull off the Rebel-Ark-KY Derby trifecta or he's not. His Brisnet LP figure is mildly disconcerting. His Rebel and Ark EP and LP numbers essentially flip flopped. Can he achieve a high number in both? Such a nice looking effortless stride but can this horse improve? I'm gonna be using on top with others but not with my usual authority.

What more did you want to see out of him? Both of his prep races he was underwraps in the lane. AP was still within himself to draw away by several lengths against each field with no encouragement so the late LP figure you're looking for won't be as high.

I went into the race hoping for two things. See him rate off the pace. Which he did. Run a fast final time for the distance. Which he also did.

Did AP beat much? No, but then again who did Dortmund beat other then Firing line? Who did International Star, Firing line at Sunland, Frosted in the Wood, Materiality in the FLA Derby other then Upstart actually beat? Lots of questions about competition. I'm looking at the horse. To me his last race geared down I have a lot of confidence he'll get the derby distance and that his brilliance is at the very least worthy of my tris and supers.

Can this horse improve? Does he really need to? His last race in the Ark Derby was one of the best preps this year. That alone is enough for me. To answer your question. I believe we do see him improve his 3rd start back from the injury. I believe this because he's not been asked of yet and there is every indication he's got more left which is scary thought.

[f2tornado]

What more did you want to see out of him?

Nothing. He passed my eye test and the fractions were good. I'm simply left wondering about his Brisnet LP figure which only Mine That Bird had lower in past 15 years to still win the Derby. I know the horse was not exactly urged but makes me wonder if my eyes are deceiving. In the Ark he had nice EP figures and a dull LP number despite decent fractions. In the Rebel and Front Runner he had dull EP figures and solid LP figures (see link). Maybe I'm thinking too hard, maybe not. Maybe the Bris figure is not correct. The colt has a couple other oddball Derby angles against him so it's not like I'm grabbing air here. He's got the dreaded Storm Cat underneath. His DamSire AWD is weak. He'd be the first Rebel-Ark-Derby winner since 1983. I do plan on using the horse on top and bottom of tickets among others but am simply not gonna bet heavy this year. None of the contenders meet my typical angles.

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/americanpharoah5044_1.pdf

[OCF]

Was AP really more impressive than Dortmund or did he just happen to be the last one we saw?

Yeah, I know his SA Derby LP figure wasn't that good, but he was ahead by 4 lengths at the top of the stretch. Why wear the horse out when a second consecutive stretchout is ahead in 4 weeks?

Like the extra week of rest.

Love the win on the CD dirt strip back in November. That takes care of one nagging question that still is there for most of the other horses. You can bet Baffert didn't ship him back there just to see if he could steal a purse.

He's been battled tested and came out ahead - Firing Line is no slouch to say the least. Can that be said about AP?

He looks flexible - can win on the lead or from just off it. All he's ever done is WIN.

I kinda hope AP keeps getting all the love because I'm leaning Dortmund's way.

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/dortmund5044_1.pdf

[boys at tosconova]

since we're talking about oddball angles.

lets not forget it’s the color of the jockey's silks that determines where they finish. the silliest horse name merits consideration as well. ocho x3 is a strong across the board play.

stupidest names never run well. mubtaahiji wins that honor bringing it w/ the double whammy of worst trainers name "de kock" training the horse

[Viruss]

After looking at his E-2 pace rating, with it being 14 points better then any
previous E-2 rating he had. I feel he may bounce so he is out for me.


Earl J

[Cratos]

Was AP really more impressive than Dortmund or did he just happen to be the last one we saw?

Yeah, I know his SA Derby LP figure wasn't that good, but he was ahead by 4 lengths at the top of the stretch. Why wear the horse out when a second consecutive stretchout is ahead in 4 weeks?

Like the extra week of rest.

Love the win on the CD dirt strip back in November. That takes care of one nagging question that still is there for most of the other horses. You can bet Baffert didn't ship him back there just to see if he could steal a purse.

He's been battled tested and came out ahead - Firing Line is no slouch to say the least. Can that be said about AP?

He looks flexible - can win on the lead or from just off it. All he's ever done is WIN.

I kinda hope AP keeps getting all the love because I'm leaning Dortmund's way.

http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/dortmund5044_1.pdf
I picked Dortmund at the beginning of the year and he hasn't done anything to change my mind.

If AP has an edge it would be his demonstrated off-track ability which could be a plus at Churchill Downs this time of year.

Also in comparing AP and Dortmund last races at Oaklawn and Santa Anita they should be compared using the total environmental bias which would be inclusive of the DF, the SWF, the SF, and the track turn side force.

What is interesting is that Oaklawn, Santa Anita, and CD are all one mile ovals with different geometric configurations which might add or substract from each horse's performance.

[nads1420]

Was AP really more impressive than Dortmund or did he just happen to be the last one we saw?


thats true. human nature... funny how that happens like when Mubtaahij was bet down to 8-1 on the 4th futures pool after the UAE derby

[OCF]

After looking at his E-2 pace rating, with it being 14 points better then any
previous E-2 rating he had. I feel he may bounce so he is out for me.


Earl J

Interesting, this is a new one on me. Is the theory that such a horse peaked?

[Viruss]

I think you can regress after a runner runs to fast an early pace. if memory serves me right War Emblems Preakness win (early pace) is a good example.

Earl J

[maddog42]

The odds that neither Dortmund or AP are in the money are huge, at least 12-1.

[wisconsin]

The odds that neither Dortmund or AP are in the money are huge, at least 12-1.


I predict that they will both wear each other out and falter near the 3/16th pole.

[PICSIX]

I predict that they will both wear each other out and falter near the 3/16th pole.

No way...Baffert is smarter than that. Send Dortmund and stalk with AP.

[SecretAgentMan]

No way...Baffert is smarter than that. Send Dortmund and stalk with AP.



Not the same owners, so you can't say he will send one & stalk with the other.......if there's a horse to send to the front, its Mr Z......I'm sure the Zayats will tell Lukas they want Mr Z out there in front, if not, like 5 to 7 horses will be forwardly placed going around the 1st turn looking to get position......

IMO, its gonna be a mess coming around the last turn at the top of the stretch.......

[wisconsin]

No way...Baffert is smarter than that. Send Dortmund and stalk with AP.


These horses will; be facing pressure that they have never seen before and neither on will be able to get away despite the instructions.

[BlueChip@DRF]

These horses will; be facing pressure that they have never seen before and neither on will be able to get away despite the instructions.

OR.....

Someone is going to overthink and let someone loose on the lead. And since it is such a crowded field, expect a frontrunner or three to get clogged at the start. Look what happened to War Emblem. The only other speed in that race was Medaglia d'Oro and he got the weight of the field to collapse in on him and force him to the rail because of a bad break. That left War Emblem untouched and well within himself to go at a good pace and force others to keep up without expending himself.

[SecretAgentMan]

No one will wire the field this year!

[MNslappy]

running styles and speed points

Dortmund E8
American Pharoah E/P 7
Materiality E/P 8
Upstart E/P 7
Firing Line E/P 8
Stanford E/P 8
One Lucky Dane E5
Bolo E/P 6
Mr. Z E6

[PICSIX]

These horses will; be facing pressure that they have never seen before and neither on will be able to get away despite the instructions.

The point about pressure may end up being true but we won't know until final entries are drawn. Don't forget about the true speed of the speed, many times they excute their pressure on the other speed types and leave the entire field in the dust.

[clocker7]

This class has a theme, and it has been consistency by the favorites. (Another poster has compared it to 1985) Now, whether consistency at 9f will translate to 10f is another story.

It is my belief that someone out of the group of prep winners will take the KD, because of that. Even though the class is less than scintillating, one of them will survive, imo. No Mine That Birds, iow.

Imo, the one colt that is being undervalued is Dortmund. I think that cappers were underwhelmed with his metrics in the SADerby. Yet, I will take a stand that Baffert believes that Dortmund is his best runner. He kept him home to run the biggest race at the venue. I think that it is a tell.

Dortmund is a big ole guy that is improving. He is a very competitive animal. Did his fractions in the SADerby portend a colt that would fade down the stretch at CD. I seriously do not know. I think that Baffert's confidence in him is worth a gamble.

[Cratos]

This class has a theme, and it has been consistency by the favorites. (Another poster has compared it to 1985) Now, whether consistency at 9f will translate to 10f is another story.

It is my belief that someone out of the group of prep winners will take the KD, because of that. Even though the class is less than scintillating, one of them will survive, imo. No Mine That Birds, iow.

Imo, the one colt that is being undervalued is Dortmund. I think that cappers were underwhelmed with his metrics in the SADerby. Yet, I will take a stand that Baffert believes that Dortmund is his best runner. He kept him home to run the biggest race at the venue. I think that it is a tell.

Dortmund is a big ole guy that is improving. He is a very competitive animal. Did his fractions in the SADerby portend a colt that would fade down the stretch at CD. I seriously do not know. I think that Baffert's confidence in him is worth a gamble.
Adjusting for DF (drag force) American Pharoah got 1:47.71 at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby and Dortmund got 1:47.91 at Santa Anita in the Santa Anita Derby, but the story does not end there.

Dortmund is a very big horse and his reference area against the aerodynamic force is large.

Therefore I am giving Dortmund a slight edge and that edge goes up or down depending on his post position in the Derby.

[Saratoga_Mike]

How does one account for "drafting" when calculating drag force in horse racing? It has a huge impact on the number, correct?

[nads1420]

How does one account for "drafting" when calculating drag force in horse racing? It has a huge impact on the number, correct?


man you guys are talking some complicated shit... im lost :blush:

[Saratoga_Mike]

You know the drafting concept in cycling. The same thing happens in racing.

[clocker7]

Hasn't Baffert's MO been keeping his best horse at the SA Derby, while skillfully transporting lesser or less-experienced animals into easier spots elsewhere?

And if that is true about Dortmund vs. his others this year, why would anyone want to second-guess his assessment?

[nads1420]

is this true?


https://twitter.com/seabiscuit7/status/588920316337893377

[HPFridays]

No.

Art Wilson
‏@Sham73
Baffert on American Pharoah: "I've had a lot of nice horses. I think he's the most exceptional 3-year-old."
Victorville, CA

[clocker7]

I watch what trainers do, and not their public pronouncements made mainly to feed owners' egos.

[Cratos]

man you guys are talking some complicated shit... im lost :blush:

Go and review Funny Cide’s performance in the 2003 Ky Derby and you see one of the best examples of “drafting” in a horserace.

In that race Funny Cide was confronted with an .81 second DF resistivity and by drafting behind Brancusi and Peace Rules for the first mile of the race, he was able to get the lead at the 1-1/8m point in the race and hold off the charging Empire Maker for the victory.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Go and review Funny Cide’s performance in the 2003 Ky Derby and you see one of the best examples of “drafting” in a horserace.

In that race Funny Cide was confronted with an .81 second DF resistivity and by drafting behind Brancusi and Peace Rules for the first mile of the race, he was able to get the lead at the 1-1/8m point in the race and hold off the charging Empire Maker for the victory.

In other words: SHAKE AND BAKE!!!

[Stoleitbreezing]

Go and review Funny Cide’s performance in the 2003 Ky Derby and you see one of the best examples of “drafting” in a horserace.

In that race Funny Cide was confronted with an .81 second DF resistivity and by drafting behind Brancusi and Peace Rules for the first mile of the race, he was able to get the lead at the 1-1/8m point in the race and hold off the charging Empire Maker for the victory.

Does someone have the video including the gate load of the horses for this derby? The way Funny Cide looked before he loaded into the gate was A+ for physicality.

I remember I was at work and had all my tickets for the derby including a nice win bet on Funny Cide in my pocket. I had the race set on the closest tv monitor to the bar so I could watch the race. My friend walks over to the bar to watch them load into the gate. Funny Cide was on his toes and had that "look" about him you read about in one of Davidowitz's books regarding physicality. My friend says to me "Wow! That 6 looks like he's ready to run!" I reach into my pocket to confirm I had the win bets on him. Smile and watched Funny side win a gritty race. What a great feeling that was for my first memorable derby moment.

I've checked on youtube for many years, but no one seems to have the gate load of a ramped up Funny Cide. I would love to see how he looked before the race again. Please post if you can find it. Thanks

[BlueChip@DRF]

Does someone have the video including the gate load of the horses for this derby? The way Funny Cide looked before he loaded into the gate was A+ for physicality.

I remember I was at work and had all my tickets for the derby including a nice win bet on Funny Cide in my pocket. I had the race set on the closest tv monitor to the bar so I could watch the race. My friend walks over to the bar to watch them load into the gate. Funny Cide was on his toes and had that "look" about him you read about in one of Davidowitz's books regarding physicality. My friend says to me "Wow! That 6 looks like he's ready to run!" I reach into my pocket to confirm I had the win bets on him. Smile and watched Funny side win a gritty race. What a great feeling that was for my first memorable derby moment.

I've checked on youtube for many years, but no one seems to have the gate load of a ramped up Funny Cide. I would love to see how he looked before the race again. Please post if you can find it. Thanks

2003 Kentucky Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=743NIZNfxOo)

Scroll to 35:00 for the start of the post parade.

[Cratos]

The aftermath of last year’s Derby created quite a stir on this Forum about how the wind affected the horses Derby performance.

The 2014 Ky Derby was off at 6:33p and during that time the wind was blowing at 17.3 mph WNW and eventually 17.3 mph W which would be nearly the direction of the homestretch.

This is important for two reasons: In the turn for home the last ¼ mile would’ve had the horses running into a virtual headwind and on the Beaufort Land Scale it would have only been a “Force 4” wind which is defined as “Moderate breeze, raises dust, loose paper, small branches move.”

In summary, the wind only had only a minute effect on some of the horses because some were “covered up.”

[Saratoga_Mike]

In summary, the wind only had only a minute effect on some of the horses because some were “covered up.”

So how do you account for "drafting" when calculating drag force in horse racing? It seems central to your calcs?

[Cratos]

Drafting in horseracing is not central to the application or calculation of drag force effect on the racehorse.

There are 3 primary variables in the drag force calculation and they are the reference area (RA), the speed/velocity of the horse, and the density of the air (Rho).

It is the interaction of these variables that causes the drag force to the horse as a function of air resistance.

However drafting is a "smart way" by a jockey to reduce the amount of force the horse received during the race and conserve the horse's energy for later use in the race.

[PoloUK6108]

I bet one of them scratches, and also that neither of them wins the roses. How often has the chalk taken it 3 straight years or more?

[minethatbird08]

I bet one of them scratches, and also that neither of them wins the roses. How often has the chalk taken it 3 straight years or more?

Looked it up and 4 favorites have won in a row before 2-3 times, I did quick look. The most recent was riva ridge through foolish pleasure 1972-1975. Three favorites happened a few times also; excluding the above it occurred during whirlaway, so like the 50s. The other streaks were really early. Also where I checked not sure if coupled entries were involved.

[PoloUK6108]

Good info...I'm really hoping for a price, even if it's not my pick. Anyone but Baffert.

[SecretAgentMan]

Good info...I'm really hoping for a price, even if it's not my pick. Anyone but Baffert.



The media will be hyping up Bafferts horses like they're Secretariat....... I'm confident in saying none of Bafferts horses will win.

[depalma113]

The media will be hyping up Bafferts horses like they're Secretariat....... I'm confident in saying none of Bafferts horses will win.

I'm not. With Ocho Ocho Ocho cooking everyone up front, One Lucky Dane could easily roll past the tiring speed.

[BlueChip@DRF]

If you like Dortmund, you should also consider Firing Line.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not. With Ocho Ocho Ocho cooking everyone up front, One Lucky Dane could easily roll past the tiring speed.



One Lucky Dane pulled up during a morning workout & was put into an ambulance .......he's OK now, they're still examining him, but more than likely, Baffett will scratch him.

I wish he ran, because all Bafferts horses take money, & I didn't like Dane at all.......

[AlBundy33]

If you like Dortmund, you should also consider Firing Line.

I have this feeling that Dortmund and Firing Line will cook each other in Round 3.

[letswastemoney]

I have this feeling that Dortmund and Firing Line will cook each other in Round 3.I don't know why they would. Dortmund and Firing Line can both rate and pass horses.

[Robert Fischer]

If a trainer has two horses in a race, and I happen to like both of them, I'm not always crazy about the second best of those two (and the fact that he's essentially 'second-string').

The Derby is a different race, and you've got breeding money factored in, it's pretty safe to say Baffert will be treating both of his Grade 1 colts as first-stringers. Maybe it's a moot point in this situation?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Drafting in horseracing is not central to the application or calculation of drag force effect on the racehorse.

There are 3 primary variables in the drag force calculation and they are the reference area (RA), the speed/velocity of the horse, and the density of the air (Rho).

It is the interaction of these variables that causes the drag force to the horse as a function of air resistance.

However drafting is a "smart way" by a jockey to reduce the amount of force the horse received during the race and conserve the horse's energy for later use in the race.

This study may interest you....

http://www.rmit.edu.au/news/all-news/media-releases/2014/october/horse-racing-position-drastically-cuts-drag-study/

[depalma113]

One Lucky Dane pulled up during a morning workout & was put into an ambulance .......he's OK now, they're still examining him, but more than likely, Baffett will scratch him.

I wish he ran, because all Bafferts horses take money, & I didn't like Dane at all.......

Well, that's that.

[nads1420]

the more I think about it the more I think that only Mubtaahij (because we really dont know enough about him) and Frosted (because of the fixed breathing problem) are the only 2 horses that have a shot at beating both these 2 absolute beast of horses... Carpe Diem I just dont think can do it... It wierd how things change 1 month ago I though Carpe Diem could win the derby but i have trouble trying to picture him beating them.. not even sure why i got off of him so much so quick...

[nads1420]

The 2-year-old champion, last time out an eight-length winner in the Arkansas Derby, moved five furlongs in 58.40 seconds under the Twin Spires -- fastest of 32 workers at that distance.

Private clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young told Churchill Downs' communications department he's been in those businesses 35 years, "and (American Phroah) might be the best horse I've ever seen. He's simply like Michael Jordan and stays in the air like he did in his rookie year. He stays in the air longer than any horse and you get the feeling that there's not one gear left, but he may have two, three or four gears."

[SecretAgentMan]

I didn't see any horse beating Chrome last year, but I see several horses that can beat AP......

In the past, we've had some insanely phenomenal horses like AP go into the derby & lay an egg.....why? Because the competition those years were good, as is this year.

If AP wins the derby & beats my horse, I hope he wins the triple crown......Point Given IMO was better than AP, but time will tell since AP is just basically starting his career.

[razorback5]

The 2-year-old champion, last time out an eight-length winner in the Arkansas Derby, moved five furlongs in 58.40 seconds under the Twin Spires -- fastest of 32 workers at that distance.

Private clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young told Churchill Downs' communications department he's been in those businesses 35 years, "and (American Phroah) might be the best horse I've ever seen. He's simply like Michael Jordan and stays in the air like he did in his rookie year. He stays in the air longer than any horse and you get the feeling that there's not one gear left, but he may have two, three or four gears."
I agree with Gary.

[SecretAgentMan]

I agree with Gary.



So does a friend of mine, & he's been betting horses since 1995, & hes never picked a derby winner. He likes AP & Upstart this year, to toss outs for me.

[f2tornado]

"He may be the one we have been waiting for, the one who can bring home the Triple Crown" - Bob Baffert (May 2005) on Bellamy Road.

[SecretAgentMan]

"He may be the one we have been waiting for, the one who can bring home the Triple Crown" - Bob Baffert (May 2005) on Bellamy Road.



That's what I'm saying, when you see so much hype of a horse like we are seeing with AP in his workouts, they don't do jack sh*t in the derby.

[Sunday Silence]

"He may be the one we have been waiting for, the one who can bring home the Triple Crown" - Bob Baffert (May 2005) on Bellamy Road.
He might have said that tongue in cheek. Zito trained Bellamy Road, not Baffert.

They are different horses. There have been a ton of horses who went wire to wire in fast times when tracks played like concrete on their respective big Derby prep. Might have 108-111 Beyers and look like monsters. But things change a) going 1 1/4, b) when they face other speed, c) when they get on a different surface.

It's all HOW they do it at 1 1/8. If they rate and draw off they are much less likely to lay and egg then pure speed types.

AP is nothing like Bellamy Road. He was SO geared down in his last that I think that he's got a ton left in the tank, as his work showed today. Has to draw well though.

[razorback5]

Lol, is that the way you narrow down who to bet in the Derby? Although, I do better with the Preakness and Belmont, I have picked a few winners in the Derby. I toss out oversea shippers with out losing a wink of sleep. I have yet to be wrong about that. People keep trying to justify why to toss AP. That's ok with me because I'll just get better odds.

[depalma113]

The only thing that will keep American Pharoah out of the winners circle is if by some chance, he can't get the distance. He is better than every other horse in this race by a wide mile.

[Frost king]

Considering that Baffert trains both horses, let's consider a few things about the two and how his stable works. His first call rider is Garcia. He rode both of them, and stayed with one. One was shipped to CD as a two yr old for what reason? To win an allwance race that he could have won on any given day at his home track. The other one was being prepped for the BC in his own backyard, and we know the record of horses that are aimed for the Juvenile, and their record in the Derby. Horse never makes it to the race because of injury, and gets a late start to his 3 yr old campaign. The other horse never misses a beat. One ships back and forth to find spots to run as a 3 yr old, the other stays in the stall next to his office the whole time, so that he can be watched. To me, all signals point to Dortmund being Baffert's Derby horse. Whether he can win it, is another matter.

[depalma113]

Garcia rode Holiday Camp to a last place finish in the Del Mar Futurity for Baffert. Espinosa rode American Pharoah. Garcia did not decide between AP and Dortmund. He rode AP in a maiden race and was not given the opportunity to ride him again.

[SecretAgentMan]

The only thing that will keep American Pharoah out of the winners circle is if by some chance, he can't get the distance. He is better than every other horse in this race by a wide mile.



AP is definitely a good horse, possibly great, but in a 20 horse field, I don't see him winning unlike Chrome last year......the difference last year was Chromes opponents, they were inferior, compared to AP's opponents this year.......way too much talent in the derby this year for AP to beat.

Also, AP has passed only 1 horse I believe in all his 5 races......yes he can rate, & I think he will race a decent race, but IMO, he won't win, I could be wrong tho........

[f2tornado]

Also, AP has passed only 1 horse I believe in all his 5 races....

This. We don't know how well the horse will do in a crowd or if he cannot control the pace. His dam side breeding is a little weak for 10F as well. That's a lot to chew on for 5/2 money. He looked awesome in the Ark but If he had another horse nearby would it have looked so awesome? It seems like these prep winners by open lengths get ripped more often than not in the Derby. I'm gonna use him along with others on top my exotics and hope he gets beat.

[ultracapper]

Being lazy here. Which one is Garcia riding, and who has the other?

[ArlJim78]

Being lazy here. Which one is Garcia riding, and who has the other?
Garcia is on Dortmund.
Victor Espinoza has ridden Amercan Pharoah the last 4 times.

[RoyalHeroine]

I didn't see any horse beating Chrome last year, but I see several horses that can beat AP......

In the past, we've had some insanely phenomenal horses like AP go into the derby & lay an egg.....why? Because the competition those years were good, as is this year.

If AP wins the derby & beats my horse, I hope he wins the triple crown......Point Given IMO was better than AP, but time will tell since AP is just basically starting his career.

Wait until he gets a gander at Mubtaahij haha!!!

[SecretAgentMan]

This. We don't know how well the horse will do in a crowd or if he cannot control the pace. His dam side breeding is a little weak for 10F as well. That's a lot to chew on for 5/2 money. He looked awesome in the Ark but If he had another horse nearby would it have looked so awesome? It seems like these prep winners by open lengths get ripped more often than not in the Derby. I'm gonna use him along with others on top my exotics and hope he gets beat.



Oh, I won't be using AP on top of any of my tickets, don't like him at all to win.

[lamboguy]

Oh, I won't be using AP on top of any of my tickets, don't like him at all to win.i think there are some good reasons why Baffert started him on synthetic. i could never bet that horse until i see how he is traveling over the surface that day. if he looks good, i think he will be mighty tough to beat. i will be watching him very closely on the track because if he doesn't look good he will run bad and there will be some value elsewhere.

i am told he went real good yesterday over the track, but that is still 6 days away and plenty of things can change between then and the race.

[f2tornado]

Oh, I won't be using AP on top of any of my tickets, don't like him at all to win.

I know you're not a fan. Any particular reason(s)? I don't like the fact he's effectively controlled the pace in all his races, only passed one horse all year, and has some goofy looking pace figures before the Ark Derby, finishes look better to the eye due to severely lacking conpetition... BUT, he's got the RAN sure line which has been hot prior to last two renditions, got the fast closing fractions last two outings, has a winning trainer and rider, won a stakes a 2YO, solid work the other day... Nothing there says he's a toss to me unless he looks awkward in the post parade or pulls the rail hole. Not gonna be my win bet but will be an exotics saver if he is that good.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I know you're not a fan. Any particular reason(s)? I don't like the fact he's effectively controlled the pace in all his races, only passed one horse all year, and has some goofy looking pace figures before the Ark Derby, finishes look better to the eye due to severely lacking conpetition... BUT, he's got the RAN sure line which has been hot prior to last two renditions, got the fast closing fractions last two outings, has a winning trainer and rider, won a stakes a 2YO, solid work the other day... Nothing there says he's a toss to me unless he looks awkward in the post parade or pulls the rail hole. Not gonna be my win bet but will be an exotics saver if he is that good.

The most obvious draw back is going to be his price. Many will try to beat him as they hate to bet a horse that low in a 20 horse Derby. This reason alone saw many cappers with losing tickets last year attempting to beat Cali Chrome. If you don't want to bet him in the win pool I understand. Maybe just key him on one ticket then, but still try to beat him on others. It seems silly just to toss the horse when he's that talented, because you don't like 3-1 come derby day.

[magwell]

The only thing that will keep American Pharoah out of the winners circle is if by some chance, he can't get the distance. He is better than every other horse in this race by a wide mile.I have to agree distance and post is the big questions, he has the best action a horse can have nothing wasted, he changes leads so smooth even though you know it's coming you may still miss it.......could be the one...... if he stays sound ;)

[Stoleitbreezing]

I have to agree distance and post is the big questions, he has the best action a horse can have nothing wasted, he changes leads so smooth even though you know it's coming you may still miss it.......could be the one...... if he stays sound ;)

There was a reason why Bob put him in a G1 after have a disappointing MSW career debut. He's crushed ever since.

I have to admit I wasn't into the hype early on as I questioned his competition ie: Calculator was still a Maiden. etc..

He still beat questionable competition in Ark, but I have to just ask myself does he pass the eye test. He can't control who shows up to face him. His last race spoke volumes for me. If he didn't rate off the pace I'd be inclined to not be so confident. Granted it was a big longshot who had no chance of winning setting the pace. Yet he rated off that strong pace and still finished eased up making me believe 10F won't be an issue. Horse has not been asked yet. So we have to assume there is another gear.

I will try to beat him on a couple of tickets with Frosted, International Star, and Upstart but I play to key AP in what is the deepest derby field I've seen in my lifetime.

[depalma113]

This past weekend on the latest episode of Mysteries at the Museum, they did a story on the banker Amadeo Pietro Giannini and his Bank of Italy. The bank was destroyed in the fire after the San Francisco earthquake. Giannini managed to save all of the deposits before the fire and was up and running a day later working on a desk made of two barrels and a plank. Amadeo Pietro Giannini was known by the nickname A.P. and his bank of Italy was later renamed Bank of America.

A.P....America... shows on a week before the Derby....too much coincidence to ignore.

[PhantomOnTour]

If Amer Pharoah wins he will do it in a smashing "Bodemeister-type" performance...that is; he will jump this bunch from the break and throw down serious splits, spread eagle the field around the far turn, and hit the stretch all by himself....only difference is he won't be caught late like Bode.

If he loses it will be more of a "Verrazano-type" performance...a brilliant runner who chucks it when given a challenging trip or other tough pace runners to knock heads with.

I will play both scenarios, but will bet the latter far more heavily than the former. He may the real deal - a superstar - but in this race with the expected odds I will play most of my $$ trying to beat him.

[SecretAgentMan]

If Amer Pharoah wins he will do it in a smashing "Bodemeister-type" performance...that is; he will jump this bunch from the break and throw down serious splits, spread eagle the field around the far turn, and hit the stretch all by himself....only difference is he won't be caught late like Bode.

If he loses it will be more of a "Verrazano-type" performance...a brilliant runner who chucks it when given a challenging trip or other tough pace runners to knock heads with.

I will play both scenarios, but will bet the latter far more heavily than the former. He may the real deal - a superstar - but in this race with the expected odds I will play most of my $$ trying to beat him.


100% agree with everything you stated.....if AP will win the derby, its Bodemeister style running. If he goes out & tries to rate, Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Stanford, etc....up front will all burn each other up.

[Speed Figure]

As of now I prefer Dortmund over American Pharoah.

[Speed Figure]

American Pharoah

[boys at tosconova]

for you ladies who use AP

http://trendingsiny.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/9a11624631af4f5d88ba2fbd627464af.gif


and for you ladies that use horses other than AP

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/ea/f5/e5/eaf5e5e997a501c8d28a3aa8ef2c324f.jpg

[SecretAgentMan]

for you ladies who use AP

http://trendingsiny.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/9a11624631af4f5d88ba2fbd627464af.gif


and for you ladies that use horses other than AP

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/ea/f5/e5/eaf5e5e997a501c8d28a3aa8ef2c324f.jpg


The first picture is your wife counting the money after she divorces you for not playing her horse & playing the losing horse AP.......the 2nd pic is your grandma burning money in her fireplace instead of leaving you an inheritance, cause she figures its as good as gone anyway after the derby :)

[f2tornado]

and for you ladies that use horses other than AP

Meh. TwinSpires is offering a refund of your first $50 win wager if your horse finishes second. Just gotta make the play after 12pm EDT Friday. Only the first $10k in wagers are eligible. Nice little wager insurance there.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

The first picture is your wife counting the money after she divorces you for not playing her horse & playing the losing horse AP.......the 2nd pic is your grandma burning money in her fireplace instead of leaving you an inheritance, cause she figures its as good as gone anyway after the derby :)

I have never ever seen such a brilliant and descriptive reply to a post in all my years online. Bravo!

[boys at tosconova]

The first picture is your wife counting the money after she divorces you for not playing her horse & playing the losing horse AP.......the 2nd pic is your grandma burning money in her fireplace instead of leaving you an inheritance, cause she figures its as good as gone anyway after the derby :)

did you read the tosconova report. it's never wrong. and this year there's a special offer play of the millennium going on.

[SecretAgentMan]

I have never ever seen such a brilliant and descriptive reply to a post in all my years online. Bravo!


Lmao, thanks, but he set himself up easily, haha!

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Lmao, thanks, but he set himself up easily, haha!
You know the best comedy teams need the set-up-man the punch-man. You are a natural punch-man.