Chart Comments %

[KingChas]

Found this while cleaning out my horseracing archives on computer.
I have no idea were or when I acquired this or what year it was.
Something different. ;)

Chart comments/ next race Sorted by Win%

Much Best 208 25.50% 1.1
Handily 289 24.00% 0.75
Ridden Out 1185 21.70% 0.88
In Hand 24 21.40% 0.86
Surged 95 21% 1.33
Jumped (shadow,tracks,etc.) 34 20.60% 0.89
Roused 197 20.30% 0.96
Hand Ride 151 19.50% 0.63
Second Best 1339 19% 0.83
Just Up 154 18.80% 1.11
Game 2198 18.70% 0.73
Gamely 2198 18.70% 0.73
Edged Clear 580 17.90% 0.87
Drew Clear 932 17.50% 0.91
Loomed 317 17.40% 0.71
Led 2319 17.30% 0.79
Took Up 99 17% 0.84
Full of Run 85 16.50% 0.62
Pressured 262 16.80% 0.81
Lost Rider 61 16.40% 2.23
Outfinished 1562 16.10% 0.68
Dueled 7841 15.90% 0.85
Willingly 1339 15.80% 0.79
Driving 6774 15.70% 0.84
Vied 3651 15.60% 0.83
Just Missed 239 15.50% 0.61
Brushed 242 14.90% 0.64
4 Wide 4203 14.80% 0.85
Stalked 2290 14.80% 0.79
Boxed 196 14.80% 0.75
Rated 469 14.70% 0.78
Closed 1602 14.60% 0.71
Blocked 370 14.60% 0.64
Going Away 241 14.60% 0.53
Belatedly 724 14.40% 0.94
Flattened 1923 14.30% 0.88
Came Again 245 14.30% 0.78
Btwn 924 14.10% 0.86
Stumbled 989 14% 0.98
Failed to Sustain 351 14.00% 0.98
Clipped Heels 81 13.60% 1.02
Hopped 245 13.50% 0.76
Hung 1382 13.50% 0.67
Bled 248 13.40% 1.18
Rank 321 13.40% 0.94
Close Up 321 13.40% 0.73
Lug 467 13.40% 0.58
Between 1851 13.30% 0.95
Rail 10352 13.30% 0.77
3 Wide 6338 13.20% 0.85
Wide 21115 13.20% 0.81
2 Wide 583 13.20% 0.7
Waited 250 13.20% 0.65
Split 787 13.00% 0.74
6 Wide 585 12.90% 0.9
Bobbled 813 12.90% 0.74
Forced Pace 535 12.50% 0.84
Squeezed 309 12% 0.68
Gave Way 6174 11.90% 0.84
Gate 785 11.90% 0.65
Steadied 2429 11.80% 0.96
Slow 4548 11.50% 0.71
Lost Jockey 44 11.40% 0.80
Bumped 3351 11.40% 0.70
5 Wide 1456 11.30% 0.73
Pulled Up 286 11.20% 0.84
Tight 901 11.20% 0.72
Tired 15520 11.10% 0.82
Chased 5632 11.10% 0.71
No Rally 6006 10.90% 0.84
Tracked 489 10.80% 0.62
Rush 358 10.60% 0.63
Evenly 2417 10.50% 0.67
Faded 4665 10.40% 0.78
Saved Ground 2163 9.80% 0.72
Lost Whip 213 9.40% 0.49
Stopped 3606 8.80% 0.88
Dull Effort 207 8.70% 1.30
Improved 1254 8.70% 0.65
Eased 1323 8.20% 0.71
No Factor 6394 7.30% 0.71
Showed Little 2425 5.70% 0.75
Outrun 7585 5.50% 0.56
Brief Speed 640 5.50% 0.55

[traynor]

I did something similar a few years back (for a client) that involved all the races run in Australia in the preceding five years. A LOT of races.

The problem is inconsistency between those who actually make the comments, as well as comments being made by different people. When run as a "meaningful value" the results are essentially nonsense, unrelated to reality. The output looks "scientific" but is based on fuzzy, inconsistent input.

Those caveats aside, this type of study can generate a lot of useful information--as long as one realizes that different people will use different terms to describe the same event, and the same people will use different terms to describe (essentially) similar events. Much like trip handicapping in general.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I was disappointed to not see my favorite comment for the WINNER:

"Never relished" - Arapahoe chart caller.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I also don't see one of my favorites from the harness side of the fence:

"Crushed foes"

I don't think these numbers are sorted by win percentage, since one of the biggest numbers is "second best". Looks like some sort of sample size, perhaps followed by percentage that the winners had this comment in their PPs (?), and finally with some sort of impact value - maybe. Interesting list.

I agree with Traynor - any quantification of the comments must be done with extreme care, as any factor being calculated can looked scientific or numerically significant, when in fact it may be total rubbish.

[KingChas]

I have no idea were or when I acquired this or what year it was.


2005

Will have to check for updates. :D

[Some_One]

Win % without any reference to expected win % is useless information.

[traynor]

Win % without any reference to expected win % is useless information.
That is an interesting comment. "Expected win %" (other than in the most simplistic "value," which is itself mostly useless) assumes a fairly accurate way to predict a given entry's probability of winning, given the precise mix of factors evident in the race in question. Not an easy task.

Hopefully, the expected win% is based on something more sophisticated than field size and/or odds--neither of which is especially useful.

[Ocala Mike]

Didn't see one of my favorites - "Eased, vanned off"

[GameTheory]

I don't think these numbers are sorted by win percentage, since one of the biggest numbers is "second best". Win% of the next race (i.e. we are looking at the comments from the last race and seeing how they do this race, so "second best" meant the horse was second best last out)

[minethatbird08]

Win% of the next race (i.e. we are looking at the comments from the last race and seeing how they do this race, so "second best" meant the horse was second best last out)

Is the last number roi? If so makes sense for lost rider; angle I like when the horse looks competitive based on previous races. I always felt you get better odds than you should on those.

[ubercapper]

The recently retired chart caller Jack Valentine (who called for about 40 years) once told me the one comment he rarely if ever used, and most old timers rarely used, was "easily." Whey you see that comment, pay particular attention.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

If the last number is ROI then "Dull Effort" is the comment to look out for with a 30% ROI

[appistappis]

where is "lacked late response"