American Pharoah and the law of averages...

[nads1420]

He looked like Big Brown and California Chrome but do you think the Derby favorite will win 3 years in a row... When was the last time that happened?

American Pharoah looked like the truth though.. my god

[davew]

I don't believe in the 'law of averages', but have great respect for probability.

[SecretAgentMan]

Anything is possible.........AP looks freakishly good.

[letswastemoney]

He didn't look any better than Dortmund to me, but I think very low of the Arkansas group.

[f2tornado]

He didn't look any better than Dortmund to me, but I think very low of the Arkansas group.

Dortmund does not impress me at all for a 10F race. Beating five horse fields at 9F with slow final fractions does not excite me. APs Rebel looked like dung but his Ark was impressive. The final 1/8th in 12.58 if my math is correct and beats the snot out of Dortmund's 13.05. I was hoping I could toss AP too but doesn't look like I can do it.

[letswastemoney]

Dortmund does not impress me at all for a 10F race. Beating five horse fields at 9F with slow final fractions does not excite me. APs Rebel looked like dung but his Ark was impressive. The final 1/8th in 12.58 if my math is correct and beats the snot out of Dortmund's 13.05. I was hoping I could toss AP too but doesn't look like I can do it.Although on most days Oaklawn Park is slower than Santa Anita, I don't see the point in comparing raw fractions and times from different racetracks.

[f2tornado]

Sure, but gotta start somewhere. Raw times are real and most (but certainly not all) Derby winners close out a 9F prep with a sub 13 second final 1/8th and/or sub 38 second final 3/8th regardless of track.

[Tall One]

He looked like Big Brown




First horse I thought of..and has a lot of room when he moves forward.. :ThmbUp:

[Rex Phinney]

I'd call Dortmund and AP equals right now. AP was impressive today. But Dortmund is a huge beast. If he progresses between races he has the physical size to beat any challengers.

[BettinBilly]

I'd call Dortmund and AP equals right now. AP was impressive today. But Dortmund is a huge beast. If he progresses between races he has the physical size to beat any challengers.

Agreed.

IMO, Dortmund is the horse to beat, but AP is hot on his hooves.

[nads1420]

I'd call Dortmund and AP equals right now. AP was impressive today. But Dortmund is a huge beast. If he progresses between races he has the physical size to beat any challengers.

But at that size is he nimble enough to navigate thru a 20 horse field if he has traffic problems

[Redboard]

It's going to depend on post position.

[Donttellmeshowme]

But at that size is he nimble enough to navigate thru a 20 horse field if he has traffic problems




Nope

[magwell]

I'd call Dortmund and AP equals right now. AP was impressive today. But Dortmund is a huge beast. If he progresses between races he has the physical size to beat any challengers. Dortmond =Lebron James big and strong and fast....American Pharoah= Stepen Curry smooth as silk and fast...... distance and post position will tell the tale if they both get to the race, ...........:cool:

[Rex Phinney]

But at that size is he nimble enough to navigate thru a 20 horse field if he has traffic problems

Who exactly is going to get in his way to cause traffic problems?

Neither of these two have enough experience in traffic to think they can handle it anyway. If you bet on either your betting they get a good fast clean break.

If AP or Dortmund get shuffled back outside the top 5 at any point the race is over for them.