Horse without a route in a route

[FPhandicapper]

Not the best handicapper by any means, but a friend of mine is going to the Arkansas derby tomorrow and I plan to send them with some of my picks. I thought it would be a good idea to clarify something I've struggled with for a while.

I'm going through race 1 and really do not know what to make of the 9.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=OP&race=1&param1=159185&param2=320&param3=880

Ritz Master has run above the condition's par once and has run within three of it 3 times in his last 10.
He often runs near or on the lead in these 5 1/2 and 6 F races he runs in---does that translate to a route race, and what's the best way for me to decipher if the route will suite the horse perhaps outside of noting the trainer who wins with 8% and is itm with 35% and is 10%-40% when it is sprint-sprint-route.

Thanks a lot, I appreciate any input. I'm a blindfolded dart thrower with these horses.

I notice all of these races are at other places such as FG HOU and LAD. It would be beneficial obviously to have an understanding of the tier of those races just by recognizing the track, which I'm going to look up shortly. Is there a better way to go about classifying how good a race was outside of opening up individual Equibase charts?

[Ocala Mike]

Used to be a profitable angle - sprinter stretching out for the first time.

Would need to know a little about the horse's breed, trainer's pattern, an assessment of whether or not he could clear the field to the top, and how speed is playing at the route over the track, etc.

In general, I don't like closing sprinters in routes, but do like front-end types, especially if they might be lone speed.

[appistappis]

I don't mind these types if they have a high Tomlinson to go long....lots of times they go wire to wire.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I didn't really look at the race, just the horse - but of the four wins showing on his PPs that you linked to - all are gate to wire. On the lead all the way. His pedigree doesn't persuade me any, but if he's priced like his M/L and you think he's going to fire - I sure as hell wouldn't be afraid to take a shot on a horse that needs the lead to win and has been getting it sprinting here and there and now is going to run into a much slower half going farther in all likelihood.

[Prytanis]

Short run to the turn
He is outside with some speed inside.
He can't outrun the#4 or #6
I'll use #7and #12

[Tall One]

4 isn't sharp on the break, but the 6 has some speed and could go forward from the start. 6, again, had an uncontested lead last out at a distance, and I don't see that changing.

9, op, imo, will either duel with the 6 and be on/near and will pose a threat.


2-6-9 is your play.. :ThmbUp:

[arw629]

From personal experience and no data to back me up..........my favorite time to play sprinters stretching out are cheap maidens who made one or two starts sprinting who ran evenly around the track....more times than not when they are put in a route race they go straight to the front end and take them gate to wire......i agree with the previous post not liking late running sprinters stretching out....rather than looking for sprint to route horses look for route to sprint horses who race close or on the lead....i think youll find in the longrun this to be a better angle if you can spot them effectively....the cutback angle is my favorite angle....i know there are many opinions on andy serling good and bad but this is his favorite angle also....listen to him on talking horses a few times and i think it will open your eyes to different handicapping angles

[Ocala Mike]

Don't know how things turned out for the original poster, but see Tampa Bay Downs, Race 6, 4/11/15, for a perfect example of the discussed subject..

[acorn54]

to paraphrase mr pizzolla in one of his handicapping videos;
" the horse @ 3-1 will never win in his route debut with his need to lead profile. He will tire in the stretch. At 15-1, he will go gate to wire making every pole a winning one"

[Robert Fischer]

Not the best handicapper by any means, but a friend of mine is going to the Arkansas derby tomorrow and I plan to send them with some of my picks. I thought it would be a good idea to clarify something I've struggled with for a while.

I'm going through race 1 and really do not know what to make of the 9.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=OP&race=1&param1=159185&param2=320&param3=880

Ritz Master has run above the condition's par once and has run within three of it 3 times in his last 10.
He often runs near or on the lead in these 5 1/2 and 6 F races he runs in---does that translate to a route race, and what's the best way for me to decipher if the route will suite the horse perhaps outside of noting the trainer who wins with 8% and is itm with 35% and is 10%-40% when it is sprint-sprint-route.

Thanks a lot, I appreciate any input. I'm a blindfolded dart thrower with these horses.

I notice all of these races are at other places such as FG HOU and LAD. It would be beneficial obviously to have an understanding of the tier of those races just by recognizing the track, which I'm going to look up shortly. Is there a better way to go about classifying how good a race was outside of opening up individual Equibase charts?

This was a good idea, and one of the better thread-ideas on the board as far as hands-on handicapping.

You had the right idea looking at this horse.

I see a few strong factors that stand out here:
1 - This specific race was dominated(on form before the race, and in the actual running) by horses that were running below their class level. Or more accurately that were down in class at a level that they can win at. Their trainers do this regularly and these were just another horse in their successful routines.
-Your horse on the other hand was pushing his class to the limit, and perhaps even extending into territory where he may not be a contender.

2 - Your pars or more specifically , your figures from the results of the clm7500n2y condition, that :9: had previously run twice @ FG, may or may not be accurate. Bris has the RR race-rating number, but skimming these over doesn't give me faith in this particular example.

3 - :9:'s recent form change. -Why did the horse crumble in supposedly a slightly weaker or similar race last time out?? Was that pace simply way hotter than the pace figs look? Or did his form regress??

^^^^ these 3 factors don't even care about distance yet

4 - In terms of distance - What are this horse's 'limiting factors'? Is it simply a matter of stamina?? If so, will the easier pace-pressure of a route help him to carry his speed?? Or is this a flawed horse, who can't relax, or has footwork issues or breathing issues or worse? Basically an insight into his limiting factors will allow you to anticipate what today's route race will ask of him, and then you can decide if the new demands fall below or above his limits.