Clunkin' Up

[nads1420]

I think its a good idea to start a thread based solely on horses that are solid candidates to 'clunk up'. Who are they? What do you look for in a clunker? Sometimes finding the Went The Day Well or Make Music For Me is as hard if not harder then picking the winner.

As SecretAgentMan pointed out earlier today Danzig Moon is a fantastic clunk up prospect...

[sbcaris]

What exactly do you mean by a clunk up horse? Does he have to be a longshot that closes ground late? or can it be any longshot? Once again, what specifically is a horse that will clunk up?

[nads1420]

for me clunking up is a longer odds horse that will finish 2nd, 3rd, or 4th usually just passing tired horses down the stretch and make the exotic payouts better...


if you look here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14meVH3tXTu6Lb9pgiiP8ouylmSFpsktVWVUNd2eQyzs/edit#gid=0

im talking about horses like Imawildandcrazyguy even commanding Curve last year was a clunk up, etc...

[sbcaris]

My guess would be to look for stamina in the pedigree of horses that you know are not good win bets. For examples:

Commanding Curve had a profile of 3-6-12-0-1 (dominant classicity)
Golden Soul had a profile of 11-5-18-4-0 (4 solid points points out stamina)
Went the Day Well had a profile 4-5-15-0-0 (dominant classicity)
Paddy O Prado had a profile of 10-12-12-4-0 (4 solid points yields stamina)
Steppenwolfer had 4-5-13-2-0 (dominant Classicity and 2 solid points)

Note: None of the above looked like Derby winners but because of their stamina in their pedigree they passed tired horses in the stretch to get into the exactas or superfectas.

[letswastemoney]

I'm not really into dosage numbers. I look at the immediate family and can tell from there whether they can get the distance.

Keen Ice might be a good one to clunk up, if he's going.

[f2tornado]

Keep tabs on the Louisiana Derby horses. Duds there have been blowing up exotics lately. They tend to have ascending speed figures and are not slowing down in the stretch. Further, they tend to have Buckpasser-x and/or conduit mare in tail female. With that in mind, I'm not tossing War Story and Stanford from the bottom of my exotics. Both have conduit mare and both had good final fractions. Only gonna cost me a few extra bucks to use them as exacta savers should they run even though I'm not a fan of either. I'll definitely be using Danzig Moon including on top among others. I think he's just as good as Carpe Diem but likely as much as 5x the odds. I'll keep an eye on The Truth or Else if he has good final fractions and gets enough points. If there is a Giacomo type 50-1 bomber this year then that's the one.

[burnsy]

Confucius say: "When betting exactas, clunk ups make the world go round."

Harpoon IPA..........India Pale Ale :cool:

[nads1420]

My guess would be to look for stamina in the pedigree of horses that you know are not good win bets. For examples:

Commanding Curve had a profile of 3-6-12-0-1 (dominant classicity)
Golden Soul had a profile of 11-5-18-4-0 (4 solid points points out stamina)
Went the Day Well had a profile 4-5-15-0-0 (dominant classicity)
Paddy O Prado had a profile of 10-12-12-4-0 (4 solid points yields stamina)
Steppenwolfer had 4-5-13-2-0 (dominant Classicity and 2 solid points)

Note: None of the above looked like Derby winners but because of their stamina in their pedigree they passed tired horses in the stretch to get into the exactas or superfectas.

can you break down those profile numbers.. thats kinda new to me

[BlueChip@DRF]

Any horse I bet heavy for the win. Went the Day Well and Shackleford are prime examples of who I had strong for the win.

[nads1420]

can you break down those profile numbers.. thats kinda new to me

i did some reading up on the dosage index... thanks wikipedia.. but where do you find these numbers?

[BlueChip@DRF]

i did some reading up on the dosage index... thanks wikipedia.. but where do you find these numbers?

LINK (http://chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2015/2015_classic_contenders.htm)

[nads1420]

LINK (http://chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2015/2015_classic_contenders.htm)

thanks man... american pharaoh toward the bottom if you sort by dosage points also would suggest Made From Lucky is a clunker candidate if he gets in

[BlueChip@DRF]

thanks man... american pharaoh toward the bottom if you sort by dosage points also would suggest Made From Lucky is a clunker candidate if he gets in


If you need a key for the 4th spot in your superfecta (just add it to your trifecta), use my "top pick" when I make it. :cool: :mad:

[BlueChip@DRF]

You could use Dortmund and Materiality in the bottom of the exotics as those two have never lost ground in the stretch in any of their races. Any with a turn-of-foot that seems to be sneaking under the radar?

[SecretAgentMan]

You could use Dortmund and Materiality in the bottom of the exotics as those two have never lost ground in the stretch in any of their races. Any with a turn-of-foot that seems to be sneaking under the radar?



Yeah, I'm definitely gonna put Dortmund in my tri's & supers.......

I know ItsaKnockout ran a terrible race last out, but is there any chance he pulls an Invisible Ink on us, I mean that was Pletcher's too......

[BlueChip@DRF]

Yeah, I'm definitely gonna put Dortmund in my tri's & supers.......

I know ItsaKnockout ran a terrible race last out, but is there any chance he pulls an Invisible Ink on us, I mean that was Pletcher's too......


Oh man.... It's wierd how Itsaknockout's last 3 races are so similar to Bluegrass Cat's last 3 races before the Derby....

Itsaknockout (http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/itsaknockout5044_0.pdf)

Bluegrass Cat (2nd in Derby) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/2006.pdf)

*** More information on past Derby winners and Derby fields *** (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/media/kentucky-derby-kentucky-oaks)

[f2tornado]

Oh man.... It's wierd how Itsaknockout's last 3 races are so similar to Bluegrass Cat's last 3 races before the Derby....

Itsaknockout (http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/itsaknockout5044_0.pdf)

Bluegrass Cat (2nd in Derby) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/2006.pdf)

*** More information on past Derby winners and Derby fields *** (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/media/kentucky-derby-kentucky-oaks)

That is nifty. Both have Buckpasser-x via tail female line too. Bluegrass Cat did have very strong conduit mare Doxa in tail female. The 1-x family has been quite strong in Derby.

[BlueChip@DRF]

That is nifty. Both have Buckpasser-x via tail female line too. Bluegrass Cat did have very strong conduit mare Doxa in tail female. The 1-x family has been quite strong in Derby.

That and 23-b. Buckpasser-X in both prime passing positions with Mr. Prospector in the Power Hole. Too bad he had Storm Cat on top. Coincidence?

[nads1420]

Madefromlucky could be a nice clunker

[SecretAgentMan]

Madefromlucky could be a nice clunker

Him & Bold Conquest I'm gonna be checking out tomorrow as they're turning for home to see how well they close.

Then again, Bluegrass Cat was probably held back by Pletcher & then came in 2nd to Barbaro......the new point system makes these trainers try harder with their horses.

Gonna be interesting to see if OchoOcho & Bolo run.....if they don't, horses that are 21 & 22 will move up.

[SecretAgentMan]

Keen Ice might be worth putting in the exotics as well like mentioned........

[BlueChip@DRF]

Far Right

Sorry about that. I guess I put the whammo on this one.

[SecretAgentMan]

If MadefromLucky runs a solid 2nd or 3rd, he's definitely a legit shot for a piece of the pie.

[nads1420]

know whats weird seems like your more likely to get a clunker finishing 2nd then 3rd...

[letswastemoney]

Madefromlucky has too much speed.

Longshot clunkers are deep closers like Ice Box, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve.

Besides Keen Ice, Danzig Moon might fit this.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Madefromlucky has too much speed.

Longshot clunkers are deep closers like Ice Box, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve.

Besides Keen Ice, Danzig Moon might fit this.

Madefromlucky doesn't have speed. IF he gets into the Derby, he'll be coming from 10th or even further back to cash.

[SecretAgentMan]

Madefromlucky doesn't have speed. IF he gets into the Derby, he'll be coming from 10th or even further back to cash.



I think what he's trying to say is he stalks like Carpe Diem......he sits behind the leaders by 1 to 2 lengths all the way around. Unless he rates, he won't be clunking in........

[f2tornado]

It might be a race where something clunks straight to the top. The three perceived favorites all have the dreaded Storm Cat somewhere in the pedigree yet maybe one can hold the place pool should that losing streak not get broken this year.

[nads1420]

think more horses then not in this one will have storm cat somewhere in him... at least out of the real contenders

[SecretAgentMan]

Oh man.... It's wierd how Itsaknockout's last 3 races are so similar to Bluegrass Cat's last 3 races before the Derby....

Itsaknockout (http://static.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/itsaknockout5044_0.pdf)

Bluegrass Cat (2nd in Derby) (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/2006.pdf)

*** More information on past Derby winners and Derby fields *** (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/media/kentucky-derby-kentucky-oaks)


BlueGrass Cat had won 4str races, a G3 & G2 race in that stretch before running evenly & losing like KnockOut last time. I hope Knockout doesn't run in the derby, he looks terrible even in his earlier races.

[PaceMasterT]

I think its a good idea to start a thread based solely on horses that are solid candidates to 'clunk up'. Who are they? What do you look for in a clunker? Sometimes finding the Went The Day Well or Make Music For Me is as hard if not harder then picking the winner.

As SecretAgentMan pointed out earlier today Danzig Moon is a fantastic clunk up prospect...

Here is my top 5 clunker rating out of the top 20 qualifiers (defections will change this):

1 - 4.2 War Story
2 - 3.67 International Star and Far Right
4 - 3.29 Upstart
5 - 3.00 Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon

2014 clunker rating for comparison

1 - 3.83 Commanding Curve
2 - 3.75 Dance with Fate
3 - 3.67 Wicked Strong
4 - 3.57 Candy Boy
5 - 3.43 Medal Count


What stands out? War Story's huge gap and the extreme drop off in comparison to last year. MUST play War Story underneath.

[SecretAgentMan]

Here is my top 5 clunker rating out of the top 20 qualifiers (defections will change this):

1 - 4.2 War Story
2 - 3.67 International Star and Far Right
4 - 3.29 Upstart
5 - 3.00 Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon

2014 clunker rating for comparison

1 - 3.83 Commanding Curve
2 - 3.75 Dance with Fate
3 - 3.67 Wicked Strong
4 - 3.57 Candy Boy
5 - 3.43 Medal Count


What stands out? War Story's huge gap and the extreme drop off in comparison to last year. MUST play War Story underneath.


War Story as a clunker makes sense......he was right there with Int Star turning for home & didn't make the move down the lane that he should have......maybe they were holding out for the KD?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not sure what you all mean by a "clunker", but a "clunker" to me a is a horse that somehow messes up a beautiful exotic ticket.

It can be a horse that comes from way off the pace. Could be a frontrunner that doesn't fold as far as one would suspect; or even a mid-packer that somehow finishes strong for absolutely no reason whatsoever.

Basically, what we are all saying, is that a "clunker" is a horse that plays outside of his form.

What horse will "clunk" up and outplay his form come Derby day? Ultimately that is the question that we all have to answer.

[SecretAgentMan]

Clunker:

Commanding Curve 37-1

Golden Soul 30-1

Bluegrass Cat 30-1

Closing Argument 71-1

Proud Citizen 30-1

Invisible Ink 55-1

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Clunker:

Commanding Curve 37-1

Golden Soul 30-1

Bluegrass Cat 30-1

Closing Argument 71-1

Proud Citizen 30-1

Invisible Ink 55-1

Does a horse have to be a Longshot to be a "clunker"?

[PaceMasterT]

Not sure what you all mean by a "clunker", but a "clunker" to me a is a horse that somehow messes up a beautiful exotic ticket.

It can be a horse that comes from way off the pace. Could be a frontrunner that doesn't fold as far as one would suspect; or even a mid-packer that somehow finishes strong for absolutely no reason whatsoever.

Basically, what we are all saying, is that a "clunker" is a horse that plays outside of his form.

What horse will "clunk" up and outplay his form come Derby day? Ultimately that is the question that we all have to answer.

I would say that a clunker is a horse that is always coming and doesn't give up and that when the more talented horses are chewed up by the pace/distance he/she is still standing and making the exotics pay off handsomely.

[SecretAgentMan]

Does a horse have to be a Longshot to be a "clunker"?



That's what I consider a clunker......if a 10-1 shot beats me out for the exacta, I don't get mad, & don't think of it as a clunker.

Cheap speed never holds on in the KD for 2nd place, except for Proud Citizen......so the clunker will usually be a closer.

[PaceMasterT]

Not sure what you all mean by a "clunker", but a "clunker" to me a is a horse that somehow messes up a beautiful exotic ticket.

It can be a horse that comes from way off the pace. Could be a frontrunner that doesn't fold as far as one would suspect; or even a mid-packer that somehow finishes strong for absolutely no reason whatsoever.

Basically, what we are all saying, is that a "clunker" is a horse that plays outside of his form.

What horse will "clunk" up and outplay his form come Derby day? Ultimately that is the question that we all have to answer.

I would also say that a clunker is a horse you handicap to be second or third. The second best horse for the win is not always the best horse for place or show.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

That's what I consider a clunker......if a 10-1 shot beats me out for the exacta, I don't get mad, & don't think of it as a clunker.

Cheap speed never holds on in the KD for 2nd place, except for Proud Citizen......so the clunker will usually be a closer.

I consider Pioneer of the Nile a "clunker". Maybe a bad selection as he "clunked" up on a 50-1 shot.

I consider Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford as clunkers.

Steppenwolfer was a clunker.

Lion Heart was a monster "Clunker" on the front end.

Cat Thief was a clunker.

Nehro was most certainly a clunker.

[nads1420]

Here is my top 5 clunker rating out of the top 20 qualifiers (defections will change this):

1 - 4.2 War Story
2 - 3.67 International Star and Far Right
4 - 3.29 Upstart
5 - 3.00 Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon

2014 clunker rating for comparison

1 - 3.83 Commanding Curve
2 - 3.75 Dance with Fate
3 - 3.67 Wicked Strong
4 - 3.57 Candy Boy
5 - 3.43 Medal Count


What stands out? War Story's huge gap and the extreme drop off in comparison to last year. MUST play War Story underneath.


dammit, another horse i have to consider... who should i bump from my clunkers? frammento, keen ice, madefromlucky, or danzig moon?

[nads1420]

I would also say that a clunker is a horse you handicap to be second or third. The second best horse for the win is not always the best horse for place or show.

very well said

[nads1420]

I consider Pioneer of the Nile a "clunker". Maybe a bad selection as he "clunked" up on a 50-1 shot.

I consider Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford as clunkers.

Steppenwolfer was a clunker.

Lion Heart was a monster "Clunker" on the front end.

Cat Thief was a clunker.

Nehro was most certainly a clunker.


i consider a clunker a higher odds horse to finish anywhere from 2-4 usually passing tired out better horses

[BlueChip@DRF]

i consider a clunker a higher odds horse to finish anywhere from 2-4 usually passing tired out better horses

Pretty much a one-pacer. Runs all day but takes all day, too.

Far Right seems to be what you are looking for. Reminds me a bit of Imawildandcrazyguy

[Secondbest]

Like SAM and Blue wrote . A closing bomb who's still running after most of the others are collapsing.

[nads1420]

this is great if you never saw it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwSDE3KLGL4

[luisbe]

this is great if you never saw it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwSDE3KLGL4

Better seeing the complete saga here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4mIaMYjYlg

[Sunday Silence]

BlueGrass Cat had won 4str races, a G3 & G2 race in that stretch before running evenly & losing like KnockOut last time. I hope Knockout doesn't run in the derby, he looks terrible even in his earlier races.
BC was 2 lengths off after the 1st call in the Blue Grass and finished 21 lengths back. I don't thin k that's running evenly.

My rule has been never bet a horse who backed up in the stretch in the final Derby prep. This was the only time it failed me in a Derby bet, and it cost me huge. Had $10 trifectas Barbaro - 5 horses - Steppenwolfer and $5 supers Barbaro - 5 horses - Steppenwolfer - Jazil.

I had several horses who just dusted Bluegrass Cat in that 2nd slot and threw him out. Cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Which speed can hold on the longest? (AKA Shackleford-style)

[Robert Fischer]

Which speed can hold on the longest? (AKA Shackleford-style)
Good question :ThmbUp: , & one that I've incorporated in the past with success.

The immediate game-speed horses that jump off the page to me are Mr. Z, Materiality, Stanford. (not sure if Stanford is even considered to enter /forgive me...)

If we include lower prices - Dortmund as well.

However, I'm not crazy about the fact that all of the prices here are considered to be 'b' or 'c' shots by their owners or trainers.

[f2tornado]

Good question :ThmbUp: , & one that I've incorporated in the past with success.

The immediate game-speed horses that jump off the page to me are Mr. Z, Materiality, Stanford. (not sure if Stanford is even considered to enter /forgive me...)

If we include lower prices - Dortmund as well.

However, I'm not crazy about the fact that all of the prices here are considered to be 'b' or 'c' shots by their owners or trainers.

Stanford has the points. Might even have enough speed to hit the board. There's something about Louisiana Derby horses with solid closing fractions blowing up exotics in recent years. Dortmund is the pure speed in my opinion. He's passed maybe one horse the entire year. He was slowing down a little bit the last couple furlongs in the SA Derby with a perfect trip so I'm gonna let him beat me unless he gets a perfect draw and my other choices get a lousy one.

[PaceMasterT]

Stanford has the points. Might even have enough speed to hit the board. There's something about Louisiana Derby horses with solid closing fractions blowing up exotics in recent years. Dortmund is the pure speed in my opinion. He's passed maybe one horse the entire year. He was slowing down a little bit the last couple furlongs in the SA Derby with a perfect trip so I'm gonna let him beat me unless he gets a perfect draw and my other choices get a lousy one.

Here is what we don't know about Stanford, how is he going to run when he doesn't have the lead? I loved Stanford coming into the LA Derby and thought that he was a stalker who inherited the lead in the Islamorada because the speed didn't/or wouldn't fire that day. His only wins came from 5th early at sprint distances, so I was assuming he didn't like being on the lead in his first route attempt. So, what happens, Mr. Z doesn't fire, Fusaichi Flame doesn't fire, A Day in Paradise doesn't fire, and St. Joe Bay doesn't fire, leaving him the lone horse on the lead. He puked it up and couldn't hold a slow pace, now was it because he can't get the distance or that he is not a leader of the pack and when he was out front without another horse in front of him he didn't know what to do? Million dollar question on this horse.

[minethatbird08]

Here is what we don't know about Stanford, how is he going to run when he doesn't have the lead? I loved Stanford coming into the LA Derby and thought that he was a stalker who inherited the lead in the Islamorada because the speed didn't/or wouldn't fire that day. His only wins came from 5th early at sprint distances, so I was assuming he didn't like being on the lead in his first route attempt. So, what happens, Mr. Z doesn't fire, Fusaichi Flame doesn't fire, A Day in Paradise doesn't fire, and St. Joe Bay doesn't fire, leaving him the lone horse on the lead. He puked it up and couldn't hold a slow pace, now was it because he can't get the distance or that he is not a leader of the pack and when he was out front without another horse in front of him he didn't know what to do? Million dollar question on this horse.

My gut feeling is that Stanford doesn't want to be on the lead. If he settles mid pack I could see him grinding out a bottom of the exotics finish. However, if he goes up front I think he gets cooked.

[SecretAgentMan]

My gut feeling is that Stanford doesn't want to be on the lead. If he settles mid pack I could see him grinding out a bottom of the exotics finish. However, if he goes up front I think he gets cooked.



I agree......there will be some serious speed up front battling it out, Stanford does not belong up front with the big boys.

[f2tornado]

My gut feeling is that Stanford doesn't want to be on the lead. If he settles mid pack I could see him grinding out a bottom of the exotics finish. However, if he goes up front I think he gets cooked.

Agree. I suspect Dortmund will be at or near the front as that horse appears to have one gear only and it's a fast one. That said, I've seen trainers try new tricks in the Derby. I just don't see that guy coming from off the pace. Stanford appears to be a steady speed horse. He may or may not be right in front but seems to be a stayer. Solid exotics clunker if the late speed doesn't materialize. Same with War Story. I'll probably use the Louisiana horses for bottom of exacta/tri bombers.

[BlueChip@DRF]

DanzigMoon went 4F in :45 this morning.
Uh-oh. He might have left his race right there.

[SecretAgentMan]

DanzigMoon went 4F in :45 this morning.
Uh-oh. He might have left his race right there.



Damn.....that's way too fast for his 2nd straight workout!

[Stoleitbreezing]

DanzigMoon went 4F in :45 this morning.
Uh-oh. He might have left his race right there.

Exercise jock needed to choke that horse down. I'm sure that's enough to get them replaced.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Damn.....that's way too fast for his 2nd straight workout!

If he was a front-running E-type, I wouldn't sweat it much. But this is way too fast for an S-type.

[SecretAgentMan]

Yeah, & I don't like the fact that Leparoux is riding him either, can't stand that jockey.......

[BlueChip@DRF]

Yeah, & I don't like the fact that Leparoux is riding him either, can't stand that jockey.......

Leparoux got the mount?

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't know, I hope not......but he's ridden him past 3 races, so I just figured he would

[RoyalHeroine]

DanzigMoon went 4F in :45 this morning.
Uh-oh. He might have left his race right there.

Well that takes care of that! :eek:
One more I can throw out.

Shameless self promo bump: Check out my first post on the Mubtaahij thread!

[SecretAgentMan]

Maybe we are over looking something with Danzig Moon........maybe his fast workouts are a positive thing? At least I'm hoping so.......

I wish they had the post draw a week earlier, that way the media & public had a solid 10 days to look the race over with the horses post position, & are able to break down the race with more time available.

[nads1420]

Maybe we are over looking something with Danzig Moon........maybe his fast workouts are a positive thing? At least I'm hoping so.......

I wish they had the post draw a week earlier, that way the media & public had a solid 10 days to look the race over with the horses post position, & are able to break down the race with more time available.


what he said :ThmbUp:

[RoyalHeroine]

BC was 2 lengths off after the 1st call in the Blue Grass and finished 21 lengths back. I don't thin k that's running evenly.

My rule has been never bet a horse who backed up in the stretch in the final Derby prep. This was the only time it failed me in a Derby bet, and it cost me huge. Had $10 trifectas Barbaro - 5 horses - Steppenwolfer and $5 supers Barbaro - 5 horses - Steppenwolfer - Jazil.

I had several horses who just dusted Bluegrass Cat in that 2nd slot and threw him out. Cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Sorry to hear about your loss there SS.

Here's the angle on what happened to you that was set up in Bluegrass Cats previous race, I call the "yank on the turn" in 6f races, or a variation thereof.

In longer races horses they are close up then paradoxically disappear and typically finish towards the tail of the field, though in Bluegrass Cats Keenland race he did finish 4th.

It's basically an afternoon workout at the public's expense where the connections are shooting for the bigger price down the road at much higher odds. (Go ahead call me conspiratorial). Especially dangerous in blue chip races e.g. the KD because the rewards are so high. They would have received over 1.4m if they had won the Derby vs what was it, $465k if they won the Bluegrass, so they would have tripled their money.
They didn't win it but they were willing to roll the dice, even against Barbaro.

File in the same folder as the eased angle.

[boys at tosconova]

the use of the word "clunker" or "clunk up" is very confusing.

don't like the terminology used at all

[boys at tosconova]

Here is my top 5 clunker rating out of the top 20 qualifiers (defections will change this):

1 - 4.2 War Story
2 - 3.67 International Star and Far Right
4 - 3.29 Upstart
5 - 3.00 Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon

2014 clunker rating for comparison

1 - 3.83 Commanding Curve
2 - 3.75 Dance with Fate
3 - 3.67 Wicked Strong
4 - 3.57 Candy Boy
5 - 3.43 Medal Count


What stands out? War Story's huge gap and the extreme drop off in comparison to last year. MUST play War Story underneath.

wut,,bolded "must use" on war story in the derby..i like to be talked into the longshot as much as the next guy, but this horse didn't fire vs intl star and these bayou horses look multiple cuts below the good ones imo.

[f2tornado]

wut,,bolded "must use" on war story in the derby..i like to be talked into the longshot as much as the next guy, but this horse didn't fire vs intl star and these bayou horses look multiple cuts below the good ones imo.

They always do yet still manage to kill exotics wagers. Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, Went The Day Well, Mucho Macho Man to name a few. The ones that do good at Churchill either have had a trip over the track, have ascending speed figures (Int'l Star a prime example), and/or solid closing fractions (Star, Stanford, and War Story had solid final 1/8th times). Golden Soul and Macho Man have conduit mare in tail female. So does War Story (Cherokee Rose). Seems like a quality field this year to avoid these clunkers but you never know.

[minethatbird08]

DanzigMoon went 4F in :45 this morning.
Uh-oh. He might have left his race right there.

You sure it's Danzig Moon? No workout posted on equibase and Mike Welsh has him down with an impressive gallop.

[BlueChip@DRF]

You sure it's Danzig Moon? No workout posted on equibase and Mike Welsh has him down with an impressive gallop.

My bad. It was an internal fraction in that :58 5F bullet he pulled a couple of days ago. I looked at his splits and he actually did the 4F split in :44.1.

[SecretAgentMan]

My bad. It was an internal fraction in that :58 5F bullet he pulled a couple of days ago. I looked at his splits and he actually did the 4F split in :44.1.


HaHa.......I looked on drf too & was wondering where you got it from. I believe he's gonna work out this weekend.

[nads1420]

Do you think there is a way to project the position of the clunker? Seems like they are more prone to clunk up to 2nd or 4th and solid horses finish 3rd... any explanation for that or you think thats just pot luck?

[nads1420]

--Tom Amoss' War Story just seems off in training. One onlooker described his gallop by sounding like a car backfiring. Not expecting him to hit the board.