Form and the Second Derivative

[Capper Al]

For those of you who haven't taken a calculus class, the second derivative is mostly the change in rate. The economy today is still growing, but at a slower and slower rate until, finally, the change will be a negative rate of growth and the economy (or stock market) will decline. Stock analysis keep an eye on this rate of change or second derivative as one of their primary indicators.

Similarly, horse racing has a few popular angles. One angle, looks for consistent improving speed from one race to the next in a horse's last three starts. Another angle, looks at positions in the last three races. Here they want to see the horse close up at the third race back at the first call. Then close up at the second call in the second to last race. And, of course, close up at the stretch in their last race. Both angles show improvement and indicate a high probability that the horse will try to win in today's race.

With these angles, it isn't the speed that's being watched but the rate of change either in the speed or the distance the horse was close up. And if there are any clues to be found for form, keep an eye on rate of change or the second derivative.

[traynor]

For those of you who haven't taken a calculus class, the second derivative is mostly the change in rate. The economy today is still growing, but at a slower and slower rate until, finally, the change will be a negative rate of growth and the economy (or stock market) will decline. Stock analysis keep an eye on this rate of change or second derivative as one of their primary indicators.

Similarly, horse racing has a few popular angles. One angle, looks for consistent improving speed from one race to the next in a horse's last three starts. Another angle, looks at positions in the last three races. Here they want to see the horse close up at the third race back at the first call. Then close up at the second call in the second to last race. And, of course, close up at the stretch in their last race. Both angles show improvement and indicate a high probability that the horse will try to win in today's race.

With these angles, it isn't the speed that's being watched but the rate of change either in the speed or the distance the horse was close up. And if there are any clues to be found for form, keep an eye on rate of change or the second derivative.

Mike Fiore used a similar approach many years ago. Very popular in Miami, and more than a few made some decent money with it.
http://www.amazon.com/Mike-Fiores-How-beat-horses/dp/B0006CTPR6

He used diagonal lines to indicate improvement (closer to leader, or whatever) 2C to 3C to stretch, etc. Quick and easy.

I coded it using fps, with a flag for improvement of whatever or greater from one segment in whatever race back to the next call in the next race. Mostly the older folks call it. "carrying speed further" or similar labels.

It is WELL worth exploring. It can put you on to some decent prices, especially if it not glaringly obvious to everyone else.

[Capper Al]

I ordered the book. Understanding form is more important than understanding speed. One can buy speed figures.

[Cratos]

I ordered the book. Understanding form is more important than understanding speed. One can buy speed figures.
Form is a "condition"metric and therefore the independent variable. Speed is a "performance" metric and is the dependent variable.

Both are important, but as form diminishes speed will decline.

[Robert Goren]

As college physics quiz instructor put it. It is measuring the putting your foot on or taking your foot on the gas. If you are watching a race, you can see it happen. The problem is you don't have a time for when the jockey takes this action. It almost never happens at one of the commonly recorded time point. If you watch a video (Trackus), you probably could get the starting and ending times of this move and you might have something useful. It would take quite bit of research to figure out at what point the numbers show good form. It might be worth it in this day and age where having useful information that nobody else has is golden.

[Cratos]

As college physics quiz instructor put it. It is measuring the putting your foot on or taking your foot on the gas. If you are watching a race, you can see it happen. The problem is you don't have a time for when the jockey takes this action. It almost never happens at one of the commonly recorded time point. If you watch a video (Trackus), you probably could get the starting and ending times of this move and you might have something useful. It would take quite bit of research to figure out at what point the numbers show good form. It might be worth it in this day and age where having useful information that nobody else has is golden.
In my intial post I concurred with the OP by using "speed" as the change variable in the horse's motion and that was incorrect, it should have been "acceleration".

[Capper Al]

In my intial post I concurred with the OP by using "speed" as the change variable in the horse's motion and that was incorrect, it should have been "acceleration".

I respectfully disagree. What the independent variable is is will the horse be asked to try. If the horse is asked then it depends on his available speed making speed the dependent variable since it follows.

[ReplayRandall]

I respectfully disagree. What the independent variable is is will the horse be asked to try. If the horse is asked then it depends on his available speed making speed the dependent variable since it follows.
And this is exactly why watching replays is a MUST.......How will you ever know if the horse was asked or not?

[Capper Al]

And this is exactly why watching replays is a MUST.......How will you ever know if the horse was asked or not?

With graded races, it is safer to assume that they will try. With claiming, it's a guess.

[ReplayRandall]

With graded races, it is safer to assume that they will try. With claiming, it's a guess.
Nothing is SAFE in this game... :lol:

[Cratos]

I respectfully disagree. What the independent variable is is will the horse be asked to try. If the horse is asked then it depends on his available speed making speed the dependent variable since it follows.
In all due respect, you introduced the quantitative metric of the derivative and whether a horse is "asked" or not the measureable .metric is acceleratiuon caused by force.

The problem here is what occurs too much in all sports and that is to take the empirical data and "run" with it without understanding "cause and effect."

Yes, the horse's involuntary movements will probably come from the jockey asking, but without the force to propel the acceleration nothing will happen.

I am not trying to take you into quantitative physics, but if you don't have a basic understanding of how motion occurs your conclusions will always be suspect.

In horseracing the calculation is very straightforward by calculating the horse's MJs.

Also it will always depend on the amount of effort you want put into something to get the correct answer.

This is gambling and you have the right to do what you think is best.

[Capper Al]

Speed is usually our introduction to handicapping. Most players never leave the 101 level of handicapping and retake the speed class over and over again always wondering why can't they nail this game. Their problem is that they are not looking at the game as a whole and speed as only a single factor in a game, a game that comprises a multitude of variables. The fastest horse in a race if not asked to win, won't win. It is just that simple, and it is just that difficult.

[acorn54]

Speed is usually our introduction to handicapping. Most players never leave the 101 level of handicapping and retake the speed class over and over again always wondering why can't they nail this game. Their problem is that they are not looking at the game as a whole and speed as only a single factor in a game, a game that comprises a multitude of variables. The fastest horse in a race if not asked to win, won't win. It is just that simple, and it is just that difficult.
there in lies the rub. you can't read the minds of the jockey. you can't anticipate the unfolding of the race scenario. i have heard countless times jocks being asked how will they run their horse in the upcoming race. all you hear is alot of ; ands, ifs, or buts, about their riding strategy.
in otherwords we are dealing with alot of unknowns.

"the people the gods want to make mad, they first let them see the future"

[Tom]

Then you have the NYRA grabbers.
Right out of the gate, the race is lost.

[classhandicapper]

With graded races, it is safer to assume that they will try. With claiming, it's a guess.

One could argue that handicapping stakes is about the fundamentals of class, speed, form, running styles, trip, pace, bias etc.. because they are almost always trying, almost always sound, and almost always trained by competent trainers.

One could argue that handicapping claiming races is about trying to figure out who is sound and likely to run well today because many are neither and many are also trained by less competent trainers.

[Cratos]

One could argue that handicapping stakes is about the fundamentals of class, speed, form, running styles, trip, pace, bias etc.. because they are almost always trying, almost always sound, and almost always trained by competent trainers.

One could argue that handicapping claiming races is about trying to figure out who is sound and likely to run well today because many are neither and many are also trained by less competent trainers.
I agree with both of your assertions, but the OP started this thread with the assertion that the derivative would be an objective way to understand if a horse is "asked" and now he has moved to the subjective criteria of the "if condition".

Both approaches might be used, but in different circumstances.

[Capper Al]

One could argue that handicapping stakes is about the fundamentals of class, speed, form, running styles, trip, pace, bias etc.. because they are almost always trying, almost always sound, and almost always trained by competent trainers.

One could argue that handicapping claiming races is about trying to figure out who is sound and likely to run well today because many are neither and many are also trained by less competent trainers.

Agree. With the young graded, it's a question if the horse is able for the challenge. It can be a little like figuring out claiming.

[Capper Al]

I agree with both of your assertions, but the OP started this thread with the assertion that the derivative would be an objective way to understand if a horse is "asked" and now he has moved to the subjective criteria of the "if condition".

Both approaches might be used, but in different circumstances.

I don't know what OP stands for if it doesn't stand for Oak Park. I probably don't need to know. As for me, I haven't changed my stance. Being asked to strike and condition play hand in hand.

[classhandicapper]

I don't know what OP stands for if

OP = Original Poster (person that started the thread)

[Cratos]

I don't know what OP stands for if it doesn't stand for Oak Park. I probably don't need to know. As for me, I haven't changed my stance. Being asked to strike and condition play hand in hand.
OP = Original Poster or the poster who started a thread.

However you never expanded your assertion about the "derivative" and you didn't make a distinction between the physical and the geometric understanding of the derivative.

Therefore what is being stated is noise without substance.

[Capper Al]

OP = Original Poster or the poster who started a thread.

However you never expanded your assertion about the "derivative" and you didn't make a distinction between the physical and the geometric understanding of the derivative.

Therefore what is being stated is noise without substance.

Funny. Did you read post #2? Apparently, Traynor didn't have a problem with it. It's a difficult topic because it ends up being a best guess scenario, and it's not as simple as who has the best speed figure.

[Cratos]

Funny. Did you read post #2? Apparently, Traynor didn't have a problem with it. It's a difficult topic because it ends up being a best guess scenario, and it's not as simple as who has the best speed figure.
Yes, I did read post #2, and it doesn't absorb you from making a distinction and it would have either been geometrically looking at the slope of the race curve with respect to the horses' motion or evaluating the delta in the horses' time with respect to the delta in the horses' distance.

[traynor]

Yes, I did read post #2, and it doesn't absorb you from making a distinction and it would have either been geometrically looking at the slope of the race curve with respect to the horses' motion or evaluating the delta in the horses' time with respect to the delta in the horses' distance.
I think you may mean absolve?

[Cratos]

I think you may mean absolve?
You are correct

[Capper Al]

Yes, I did read post #2, and it doesn't absorb you from making a distinction and it would have either been geometrically looking at the slope of the race curve with respect to the horses' motion or evaluating the delta in the horses' time with respect to the delta in the horses' distance.

What distinction do I need to make? I quoted two popular angles that use improving speed or improving with distance going longer. Math can blind one if not kept in check. It isn't about the optimal mathematical expression, it's about the horses. Most good elementary stats will do once the problem is understood.

[Cratos]

What distinction do I need to make? I quoted two popular angles that use improving speed or improving with distance going longer. Math can blind one if not kept in check. It isn't about the optimal mathematical expression, it's about the horses. Most good elementary stats will do once the problem is understood.
The problem here is that you are inferring that horserace handicapping is some sort of unique analytic; and nothing can further from the truth.

Horserace handicapping is about the measurement and prediction of objects moving through space over a surface within a closed circuit.

To that end, the analytical tools of math, science, and statistics are very suited to help anyone who have a good understanding of those disciplines along with an understanding of horseracing should do well.

The only ones who are blinded are the ones who do not understand or don't want to understand the concepts of the aforementioned disciplines.

[ReplayRandall]

The problem here is that you are inferring that horserace handicapping is some sort of unique analytic; and nothing can further from the truth.

Horserace handicapping is about the measurement and prediction of objects moving through space over a surface within a closed circuit.

To that end, the analytical tools of math, science, and statistics are very suited to help anyone who have a good understanding of those disciplines along with an understanding of horseracing should do well.

The only ones who are blinded are the ones who do not understand or don't want to understand the concepts of the aforementioned disciplines.
Cratos, we all have seen you post this same message countless times. Trust me, we get it, message received, but maybe it's time for you to get the next "breakthrough" revelation that you want us all to contemplate.....BTW, that's IF you have another.

[Cratos]

Cratos, we all have seen you post this same message countless times. Trust me, we get it, message received, but maybe it's time for you to get the next "breakthrough" revelation that you want us all to contemplate.....BTW, that's IF you have another.
I did not start this thread with the assertion that the mathematical derivative is what should be considered in handicapping; the OP did.

In all due respect, using the ubiquitous "we" is hilarious because as I understand the terms of the usage of this forum; it is a public forum with rules for posting.

There many topics that I might disagree with or not have an interest on the forum and I just don't participate.

Incidentally, I don't think I ever advocated a "breakthrough revelation" that I want you or anyone else to understand.

In my 11 years on this forum, the most "breakthrough revelation'' in my opinion was the use of Bayesian statistics by the poster, TrifectaMike.

[ReplayRandall]

Incidentally, I don't think I ever advocated a "breakthrough revelation" that I want you or anyone else to understand.

In my 11 years on this forum, the most "breakthrough revelation'' in my opinion was the use of Bayesian statistics by the poster, TrifectaMike.
Don't take things personal now, I just told you MY perception of how your posts have been coming across lately. My mistake for using the term "we"......BTW, with all due respect, we are peers....don't ever forget it.

[Cratos]

Don't take things personal now, I just told you MY perception of how your posts have been coming across lately. My mistake for using the term "we"......BTW, with all due respect, we are peers....don't ever forget it.
No animosity on my part and I am proud to be your peer.

[DeltaLover]

Horserace handicapping is about the measurement and prediction of objects moving through space over a surface within a closed circuit.



Well, this is a really bold statement!!!

[Cratos]

Well, this is a really bold statement!!!
Maybe I am wrong, but I am stuck with my belief and satisfied enough to not want to extend this debate.

[Capper Al]

The premise here is that answering the question, " is the horse ripe for a strike as the independent variable"-- and a guesstimate at that. This is contrary to what Cratos believes and posted in this thread as that speed was the independent variable and the certainty of math as the solution.

[Cratos]

The premise here is that answering the question, " is the horse ripe for a strike as the independent variable"-- and a guesstimate at that. This is contrary to what Cratos believes and posted in this thread as that speed was the independent variable and the certainty of math as the solution.
Please if you are going to quote or paraphrase my posts at least do it correctly.

In post #4 I said speed was a DEPENDENT variable and I never said or referred to certainty about anything.

If you need to create fabrications to make your case, it is weaker than I thought.

Therefore this is my last post in this thread and you can twist it anyway you like.

[thaskalos]

Therefore this is my last post in this thread and you can twist it anyway you like.

Promise?

[Capper Al]

Please if you are going to quote or paraphrase my posts at least do it correctly.

In post #4 I said speed was a DEPENDENT variable and I never said or referred to certainty about anything.

If you need to create fabrications to make your case, it is weaker than I thought.

Therefore this is my last post in this thread and you can twist it anyway you like.

I stand corrected. Yet, I don't understand all your noise.

[Capper Al]

Let's move on. Let's look at pace. Pace is a derivative of speed also. Pace tells how a horse needs to distribute their energy to win. If the match up works in favor of the horse, an opportunity might arise for a horse to be able to strike. The horse's connection most likely would want to take advantage and go for the win.

Now let's focus on the handicapper types. Earlier I mentioned that many handicappers start off learning about speed and keep revisiting speed over and over again throughout their handicapping life. Many handicappers search for a better way to look at speed and find pace. Pace handicappers unknowingly tape into the second derivative and find themselves winning with a little more sophistication and getting at times some better prices. Pace handicappers, many a time, can go back over a race and explain why a horse won or lost in a manner far superior to anything a speed handicapper can do. The awesomeness of knowledge sets in, pace handicappers become sophomoric with their newly found insights. They are clueless that they have stumbled upon the second derivative and, as speed handicappers did before them, believe the answer is in their math. It's not in their math. Pace may also show us that a horse is ripe to strike. What I call the second derivative.

[Robert Goren]

With graded races, it is safer to assume that they will try. With claiming, it's a guess. I think the opposite is true. With claimers, especially cheap claimer, they can not afford to take the gamble that today's race won't be the horse's last. In stakes races, they may be pointing for a bigger (purse) payday done the line since as general rule stakes horses are sounder than claimers. 40 years ago, your logic would have been correct when claimers were filled with sound , but slow runners and there were fewer big paying stakes, but not today.

[Capper Al]

I think the opposite is true. With claimers, especially cheap claimer, they can not afford to take the gamble that today's race won't be the horse's last. In stakes races, they may be pointing for a bigger (purse) payday done the line since as general rule stakes horses are sounder than claimers. 40 years ago, your logic would have been correct when claimers were filled with sound , but slow runners and there were fewer big paying stakes, but not today.

You might have a point about claimers, but the burden on this decision still rests with the handicapper. Look at horses that have been claimed. A lot of them still don't win. They had to be giving it their all since they lost the horse.

[GaryG]

You might have a point about claimers, but the burden on this decision still rests with the handicapper. Look at horses that have been claimed. A lot of them still don't win. They had to be giving it their all since they lost the horse.Many times horses taking a big class drop are damaged goods. The top trainers can spot them and avoid them. Often they are claimed by an incompetent trainer who thinks he is getting a bargain. That is almost never the case. If you follow a circuit closely you will soon know the trainers' habits. Many years ago a friend of mine named Steve Collison wrote a book (a pamphlet really) called The Claiming Game. Steve knows his business and is a very successful player.

[Capper Al]

Many times horses taking a big class drop are damaged goods. The top trainers can spot them and avoid them. Often they are claimed by an incompetent trainer who thinks he is getting a bargain. That is almost never the case. If you follow a circuit closely you will soon know the trainers' habits. Many years ago a friend of mine named Steve Collison wrote a book (a pamphlet really) called The Claiming Game. Steve knows his business and is a very successful player.

I have a copy. It provides a good intro to the claiming game.

[DeltaLover]

Maybe I am wrong, but I am stuck with my belief and satisfied enough to not want to extend this debate.


I disagree with your definition of handicapping..

In my book, handicapping is about discovering patterns that might cause the crowd to systematic erroneous conclusions that can present the profit opportunities.

Even the most precise estimate of “measurement and prediction of objects moving through space over a surface within a closed circuit” as you put it, are completely useless for betting purposes, if they happen to be embedded in the prices (and to make things ever worse, you need to also cover the takeout)..

Handicapping is NOT ABOUT PREDICTING THE WINNER OF THE RACE (a domain where your approach might excel) but about PREDICTING THE POSSIBLE ERRORS COMMITED BY THE BETTING CROWDS ( a domain that needs a combination of creative imagination and stochastic models as opposed to deterministic methods)

[Cratos]

I disagree with your definition of handicapping..

In my book, handicapping is about discovering patterns that might cause the crowd to systematic erroneous conclusions that can present the profit opportunities.

Even the most precise estimate of “measurement and prediction of objects moving through space over a surface within a closed circuit” as you put it, are completely useless for betting purposes, if they happen to be embedded in the prices (and to make things ever worse, you need to also cover the takeout)..

Handicapping is NOT ABOUT PREDICTING THE WINNER OF THE RACE (a domain where your approach might excel) but about PREDICTING THE POSSIBLE ERRORS COMMITED BY THE BETTING CROWDS ( a domain that needs a combination of creative imagination and stochastic models as opposed to deterministic methods)
I am violating what I said I wouldn’t do and that was not to return to this thread, but you seem to want an answer from me and it is that you can disagree with what I stated and that is okay; and you might get others to agree with you and that is also acceptable, but I don't agree with you and that is the only thing that counts to me.

What you or I say is not the gospel; just what we believe.