Kentucky Derby points as of 4/6/15

[MNslappy]

International Star 171
Dortmund 170
Carpe Diem 164
Frosted 113
Mubtaahij 100
Materiality 100
El Kabeir 95
Upstart 76
American Pharoah 60
Itsaknockout 60
Firing Line 58
Danzig Moon 45
War Story 44
Tencendur 41
Maftool 40
One Lucky Dane 40
Ami's Flatter 40
Stanford 40
Ocho Ocho Ocho 30
Bolo 30

-------------

Prospect Park 30
Conquest Typhoon 26
Far Right 22
Keen Ice 22
Daredevil 20
Madefromlucky 20
Tiz Shea D 20
Frammento 20
Bold Conquest 17
Mr Z 14
Classy Class 13
The Truth or Else 11
Pain and Misery 10
Metaboss 10
Diving Rod 10

[raybo]

As far as Derby fields go, this one appears to be one of the deepest I've seen in a while. All sorts of scenarios could play out this year, and many of these horses could end up on top. Looks like a good year to bet WPS, exacta, and an excellent year for betting trifectas and superfectas. The money should be spread around pretty well on the perceived top contenders, so very good prices should be available for those a bit less favored.

Thanks for posting this! Can't wait!!

[clocker7]

Deep in mediocrity.

[f2tornado]

Deep in mediocrity.

Pretty much.

International Star 171 - Is he fast enough? Would be only second LA Derby winner to wear the Roses (Grindstone 1996, Funny Cide finished 3rd and came back to win in 2003)
Dortmund 170 - SA Derby time was average. Final fractions soft. Six horse field leaves more to be desired. Most KY Derby winners from that race finish faster. Also slight decline in final fractions through the season. Northern Dancer line wins about once a decade. Maybe he's Big Brown Jr but I'm not biting.
Carpe Diem 164 - I believe Storm Cat sire line 0-44 in Derby. Ouch. Pletcher just slightly better.
Frosted 113 - Tapit/Pulpit. Need I say more. Chrome, I know. Frosted is no CC.
Mubtaahij 100 - We know the record of desert dwellers. And, who did he beat?
Materiality 100 - I can't get past the Painfully slow FL Derby. Throw in the Apollo jinx and makes a tough sell.
El Kabeir 95 - Horse should have took the lead in Wood. Fail.
Upstart 76 - Again, painfully slow FL Derby and FOY. Perhaps a top contender if you can ignore those turtle fractions. Buckpasser-x a plus.
American Pharoah 60 - Unimpressed with Rebel. Extremely soft pace. Need to see more in Ark.
Itsaknockout 60 - FL Derby fail.
Firing Line 58 - Can't blame connections for securing points at Sunland but what does that tell you? Also, Storm Cat horses have failed in the Derby.
Danzig Moon 45 - This one is a curiosity. Took the corner very wide and was gaining on Carpe Diem on drying track. Maybe a live longshot.
War Story 44 - Could not compete in weak FG fields. Has conduit mare Cherokee Rose. Louisiana horses sometimes blow up exotics.
Tencendur 41 - Passed at the wire in Wood with time a second slower than Wicked Strong, more than 1.5 seconds slower than Empire Maker. Conduit mare Torpenhow might help.
Maftool 40 - I'm guessing doesn't even bother to make the trip.
One Lucky Dane 40 - See Dortmund. Baffert no fool. This horse was a nice decoy.
Ami's Flatter 40 - Nope.
Stanford 40 - I can sort of see it. No shame in placing in Louisiana Derby and those horses tend to fare well at CD. Has conduit mare Altoviscar.
Ocho Ocho Ocho 30 - He can join Lord Nelson in 7-8F G3 action.
Bolo 30 - Thought he had a chance with Mike Smith, conduit mare Broom Flower (family 23b) but I believe only two SA Derby horses finishing 4th or worse managed to win the Roses. Tough sell.

[SecretAgentMan]

Last year, 20 points got you in, after the Ark derby, you will need 40 points, what a difference!

[horses4courses]

Deep in mediocrity.

Thank you, Mr. Glass Half Empty.

You, like everyone else, has little to no clue
as to how this year's 3yo crop will turn out.
Yet, you have to get your 2 cents in. :rolleyes:

Chances are, you will be saying " I told you so"
come June, but can't you have a little faith?

[Tom]

I don't think it's a deep field at all. I see 3, maybe 4 horses with a real shot to win it.

Probably 10-12 have a shot at second and anything can get third.

[raybo]

I don't think it's a deep field at all. I see 3, maybe 4 horses with a real shot to win it.

Probably 10-12 have a shot at second and anything can get third.

Well, I guess we'll see on the first Saturday in May won't we.

I never said this was the best crop I've seen in a while, rather the deepest field, regarding possible winners.

[raybo]

Last year, 20 points got you in, after the Ark derby, you will need 40 points, what a difference!

That's part of the reason I called this field deep, more horses with more points.

[SecretAgentMan]

That's part of the reason I called this field deep, more horses with more points.



I agree its deep & wide open.......not like the years with Smarty Jones, Chrome, Big Brown.......those horse towered over the rest of the crop. IMO, there isn't any horses this year that tower over the rest.......of course there are weaker horses entering the gate in May, but no standout.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I agree its deep & wide open.......not like the years with Smarty Jones, Chrome, Big Brown.......those horse towered over the rest of the crop. IMO, there isn't any horses this year that tower over the rest.......of course there are weaker horses entering the gate in May, but no standout.


Maybe 2009 all over again?

[SecretAgentMan]

Maybe 2009 all over again?



IMO, the winning horse will be 15-1 or higher.......after Giacomo & MTB won at 50-1, we don'tsee horses go off crazy high odds anymore. With the way this field & how the odds will be spread around around among the supposed 4 or 5 great horses, we may see over inflated odds, so we may see a 30-1 or more win it.

Right now we still have to see how all these horses handle Churchill during their work outs & hopefully they all stay healthy.

[Tom]

Well, I guess we'll see on the first Saturday in May won't we.

I never said this was the best crop I've seen in a while, rather the deepest field, regarding possible winners.

Yes, we will.
I just do not think points have anything to do with depth.
No matter how bad a field is, the winner gets the points.

I see only several horses I would consider as win candidates.
That is why they let us bet. ;)

[raybo]

Yes, we will.
I just do not think points have anything to do with depth.
No matter how bad a field is, the winner gets the points.

I see only several horses I would consider as win candidates.
That is why they let us bet. ;)

I said that was "part" of the reason I think it is deep, not "the" reason. Gracious, do you think you're the only one who actually watches and analyzes these horses during their 2 yo seasons and the preps? It is, after all, the Derby, with 20 young horses trying to occupy many of the same positions during the running. There are many horses in this year's field who are multi-talented runners, having run in the front, and also from off the pace and have shown that they can handle traffic and kickback well, and several who have displayed a likelihood of taking to longer distances, unlike many of the crops recently. There are a few who haven't quite broken through yet, but seem to be poised right on the precipice, and that could happen in any race, and why not a race that is so completely different than any they have run, or will run this year? I'm just saying that this field appears to be deeper in potential competitiveness than many previous fields.

[Tom]

I never said anything about watching and analyzing races.
I simply said I do not think there too many legitimate win contenders this year.
Nothing is going happen between now and then that will change my mind. I may well use other horses in the place and show holes, but not for win, no matter what the odds.

I made a simple comment, that is all.
Sorry you don't agree.

[boys at tosconova]

I don't think it's a deep field at all. I see 3, maybe 4 horses with a real shot to win it.

Probably 10-12 have a shot at second and anything can get third.

doesn't anybody else see the irony in this statement

[BlueChip@DRF]

doesn't anybody else see the irony in this statement

What? He's playing a abcd/abcdefghijkl/ALL trifecta.

[boys at tosconova]

What? He's playing a abcd/abcdefghijkl/ALL trifecta.

http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads/GIF/2014/09/Amused-Chuckle-Funny-Haha--Ha-Ha-Hahaha-Laugh-LOL-Robert-De-Niro-GIF.gif

[Tom]

doesn't anybody else see the irony in this statement

I must have missed it. Please explain.