Top Horse Analytics: 04/05/2015 SA Picks

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: AQU-O, KEE, SA
THA Suspended Tracks: GP, OP, TAM
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU-I, BEL, CD, DMR, GPW, SAR

[Augenj]

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Race Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Equibase Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

04/05/15, SA, Race 1, 12:30 PT
1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:39:01 STARTER STAKE. Purse $30,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta - $2 Rolling Double/ $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 1-2-3) - $0.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5) / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Skip Tony [7/2] Bejarano R / Hollendorfer Jerry
096.5762 :6: Buymeabond [7/2] Prat F / DeLeon Rafael
095.8798 :1: Persuasive Paul [2-1] Quinonez A / Knapp Steve
095.5576 :5: Muchos Besos [5-1] Valdez F / Sierra Javier Jose
094.6678 4 My Jealous [4-1] Puglisi I / Fernandez Victor
093.8836 2 Bluegrass Reward [4-1] Trujillo E / O'Neill Doug F.

04/05/15, SA, Race 2, 12:57 PT
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:13:01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $56,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) - $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Jimbo Fallon [3-1] Garcia M / Baffert Bob
097.5051 :7: Desert Dynamo [7/2] Maldonado E A / Bonde Jeff
096.5311 :1: Travel Bound [6-1] Smith M E / Glatt Mark
096.3235 :3: Simplicityizgenius [6-1] Talamo J / D'Amato Philip
095.3376 8 Rosicky [4-1] Bejarano R / Gaines Carla
093.1980 4 El Kracken [9/2] Pedroza M A / Baffert Bob
091.2483 2 Tossmeacutie [8-1] Baze T / Yakteen Tim
091.0905 5 Captain Tim [8-1] Espinoza V / Shirreffs John A.

04/05/15, SA, Race 3, 1:27 PT
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:13:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $23,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 3-4-5)/ $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Kenjisstorm [5/2] Pedroza M A / Pender Michael
098.2465 :9: Bandido Too [9/2] Bejarano R / Yakteen Tim
097.1468 :2: Cal McLish [3-1] Gryder A T / Miyadi Steven
094.6894 :1: Love On the Road [4-1] Gonzalez S / Heap Blake R.
094.4162 6 Wild [20-1] Valdez F / Capestro Paula S.
093.8949 3 Lucky Shoes to Win [4-1] Perez F H / Mullins Jeff
093.7251 7 Jetslegacy [20-1] Nicolas G / Hernandez. Jr. Jose
092.9160 5 Inner City [10-1] Van Dyke D / Hess. Jr. Robert B.
091.0439 8 Zirondelle [15-1] Hernandez E / Rosales Richard

04/05/15, SA, Race 4, 1:57 PT
1M [Turf] 1:31:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $35,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 4-5-6) - $2 Pick Six Starts (Races 4-9) / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Socialized [7/2] Steiner J J / Sise. Jr. Clifford W.
099.4035 :10: Revenue Virginius [4-1] Talamo J / Zucker Howard L.
098.9666 :4: Katy Drama [3-1] Espinoza V / Miller Peter
097.7245 :8: Autumn Flower [4-1] Solis A O / Hendricks Dan L.
097.5222 9 Luvuryan [8-1] Quinonez A / Belvoir Vann
096.8410 5 Court the Storm [20-1] Valdez F / Capestro Paula S.
096.5574 2 Lirica Heat (ARG) [12-1] Trujillo E / Abrams Barry
096.4765 1 Carnival Lights [8-1] Pereira T J / Sadler John W.
094.5031 7 Mackenzies Moment [8-1] Van Dyke D / O'Neill Doug F.
094.2282 6 Delaney's Joy [30-1] Puglisi I / Papaprodromou George

04/05/15, SA, Race 5, 2:27 PT
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:13:01 STAKES. Purse $75,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 5-6-7)/ $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Tara's Tango [8/5] Smith M E / Hollendorfer Jerry
096.7994 :6: Enchanting Lady [4-1] Garcia M / Baffert Bob
095.5444 :3: Sensitively [9/5] Talamo J / D'Amato Philip
094.5048 :2: Ben's Duchess [9/2] Van Dyke D / Sadler John W.
092.3268 1 Rattataptap [5-1] Bejarano R / Bonde Jeff
091.3149 5 Miss Mandate [12-1] Trujillo E / Casse Mark E.

04/05/15, SA, Race 6, 2:59 PT
6 1/2F [Turf About] 1:10:04 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $30,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 6-7-8) - $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9) / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: Incline Village [4-1] Talamo J / Koriner Brian J.
098.4590 :7: Hawkedon [7/2] Bejarano R / Puype Mike
098.1630 :14: Gold Chaser [9/2] Quinonez A / Papaprodromou George
096.6777 :11: Follow Me Crev [8-1] Maldonado E A / Marquez Alfredo
096.1826 1 Dead Easy [5-1] Desormeaux K J / Rosales Richard
096.0733 5 Dynamite Ride [12-1] Pereira T J / Yakteen Tim
095.8914 8 Antinanco [12-1] Perez F H / Diodoro Robertino
093.3835 10 Weekendwithbernie [15-1] Van Dyke D / O'Neill Doug F.
093.0534 9 Surfer Moon [15-1] Blanc B / Conlon Melody
092.9669 13 Lambo Luxx [15-1] Gonzalez S / Carava Jack
092.6310 4 Baby Blake [8-1] Delgadillo A / Avalos Jose Jesus
091.8270 3 Divine Vision [12-1] Baze T / Callaghan Simon
091.1094 2 Ten Carat Rock [8-1] Gryder A T / Lewis Craig Anthony
*Scratch* 6 Hurry Up Henry [] S /

04/05/15, SA, Race 7, 3:33 PT
6F [Dirt] 1:07:00 CLAIMING. Purse $16,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 7-8-9)/ $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Bourne Hot [9/5] Maldonado E A / O'Neill Doug F.
098.8322 :6: Smokin' Ten [6-1] Steiner J J / Herrick Joe
098.0732 :8: Sidepocket Champ [4-1] Pena B / Dominguez Caesar F.
096.6350 :10: Takeit Tothe Limit [12-1] Perez F H / Pender Michael
095.7628 2 Takem by Surprise [12-1] Pedroza M A / Sherlock Gary
095.5474 4 Matzoh Ball Magic [5-1] Arias S / Sherman Art
095.3867 7 Lolo El Canonero [5-1] Nicolas G / Belvoir Vann
095.3418 9 Small Town Cop [12-1] Prat F / Belvoir Vann
094.8898 5 Pioneer Charlie [12-1] Gonzalez S / Carava Jack
094.6185 1 Porchetto [15-1] Delgadillo A / Spawr William

04/05/15, SA, Race 8, 4:06 PT
1 1/8M [Turf] 1:44:00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $60,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta - $2 Rolling Double/ $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: Qiaona [6-1] Desormeaux K J / Moger. Jr. Ed
099.4957 :4: Elektrum (IRE) [5/2] Smith M E / Sadler John W.
099.3628 :10: Valiant Emilia (PER) [8-1] Pereira T J / Mandella Gary
098.1908 :1: Full Ransom [15-1] Gonzalez S / Cassidy James M.
098.0669 5 Lady Asano [6-1] Blanc B / West Ted H.
097.5311 8 Magic Spot [6-1] Trujillo E / Palma Hector O.
097.2953 9 Colonel Joan [8-1] Talamo J / Harty Eoin G.
097.0652 11 Emerald Star (GB) [6-1] Bejarano R / Drysdale Neil D.
096.5377 7 (F)Moanin (FR) [12-1] Prat F / Drysdale Neil D.
095.8266 3 Diamond Stilettos (IRE) [12-1] Van Dyke D / O'Neill Doug F.
093.6494 2 City At Dawn [15-1] Garcia M / Powell Leonard
*Scratch* 6 Keri Belle [] S /

04/05/15, SA, Race 9, 4:41 PT
7F [Dirt] 1:19:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $19,000.
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) - $1 Super High 5
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Blind Dreams [5/2] Perez F H / O'Neill Doug F.
098.3148 :7: Amberella [4-1] Pereira T J / D'Amato Philip
097.0254 :2: Del Mar Dixie [3-1] Baze T / Mullins Jeff
096.3181 :5: Sweet Sense [3-1] Puglisi I / Puype Mike
095.8897 3 Chicago Angel [15-1] Valdez F / Fanning Jerry M.
095.8548 9 Frannie'sspirittoo [12-1] Pena B / Canani Julio C.
095.7941 10 Mudge [8-1] Nicolas G / Miyadi Steven
094.7990 4 Is This Georgia [30-1] Flores E / Meza Francis
092.9278 11 Union Blaze [30-1] Quinonez A / Knapp Steve
091.0848 8 Drinksarespensive [30-1] Bednar V / Mendoza Jesus
*Scratch* 1 Warrior Thatcher [] S /

[Augenj]

WPS Takeout at SA is 15.43%, Breakage is $0.20

04/05/15, SA, Race 1, 12:30 PT
100.0000 :3: Skip Tony [7/2 * ] 1st - 5.80 3.40 2.60
096.5762 :6: Buymeabond [7/2]
095.8798 :1: Persuasive Paul [2-1] 4th
095.5576 :5: Muchos Besos [5-1] 3rd - 4.00
094.6678 4 My Jealous [4-1] 2nd - 3.60 2.80
093.8836 2 Bluegrass Reward [4-1]

04/05/15, SA, Race 2, 12:57 PT
100.0000 :6: Jimbo Fallon [3-1] 3rd - 2.80
097.5051 :7: Desert Dynamo [7/2 * ] 1st - 6.00 3.60 2.80
096.5311 :1: Travel Bound [6-1]
096.3235 :3: Simplicityizgenius [6-1]
095.3376 8 Rosicky [4-1] 2nd - 6.60 4.00
093.1980 4 El Kracken [9/2]
091.2483 2 Tossmeacutie [8-1]
091.0905 5 Captain Tim [8-1] 4th

04/05/15, SA, Race 3, 1:27 PT
100.0000 :4: Kenjisstorm [5/2 * ] 1st - 4.40 2.80 2.20
098.2465 :9: Bandido Too [9/2] 2nd - 3.00 2.20 $1 Exacta $4.30
097.1468 :2: Cal McLish [3-1] 3rd - 2.60 $1 Trifecta $10.00
094.6894 :1: Love On the Road [4-1] *SCR*
094.4162 6 Wild [20-1]
093.8949 3 Lucky Shoes to Win [4-1] 4th
093.7251 7 Jetslegacy [20-1]
092.9160 5 Inner City [10-1]
091.0439 8 Zirondelle [15-1]

04/05/15, SA, Race 4, 1:57 PT
100.0000 :3: Socialized [7/2] 4th
099.4035 :10: Revenue Virginius [4-1] 1st - 9.60 5.60 3.60
098.9666 :4: Katy Drama [3-1 * ] 3rd - 2.80
097.7245 :8: Autumn Flower [4-1] *SCR*
097.5222 9 Luvuryan [8-1]
096.8410 5 Court the Storm [20-1]
096.5574 2 Lirica Heat (ARG) [12-1] 2nd - 13.80 6.40
096.4765 1 Carnival Lights [8-1]
094.5031 7 Mackenzies Moment [8-1]
094.2282 6 Delaney's Joy [30-1] *SCR*

04/05/15, SA, Race 5, 2:27 PT
100.0000 :4: Tara's Tango [8/5] 2nd - 4.80 3.20
096.7994 :6: Enchanting Lady [4-1] 1st - 8.60 4.20 2.80
095.5444 :3: Sensitively [9/5 * ] fell after, vanned off
094.5048 :2: Ben's Duchess [9/2] 3rd - 3.60
092.3268 1 Rattataptap [5-1]
091.3149 5 Miss Mandate [12-1] 4th

04/05/15, SA, Race 6, 2:59 PT
100.0000 :12: Incline Village [4-1 * ] 2nd - 3.60 2.80
098.4590 :7: Hawkedon [7/2] 1st - 7.80 4.00 3.00
098.1630 :14: Gold Chaser [9/2] *SCR*
096.6777 :11: Follow Me Crev [8-1]
096.1826 1 Dead Easy [5-1] 3rd - 3.20
096.0733 5 Dynamite Ride [12-1]
095.8914 8 Antinanco [12-1]
093.3835 10 Weekendwithbernie [15-1]
093.0534 9 Surfer Moon [15-1]
092.9669 13 Lambo Luxx [15-1]
092.6310 4 Baby Blake [8-1]
091.8270 3 Divine Vision [12-1] 4th
091.1094 2 Ten Carat Rock [8-1]
*Scratch* 6 Hurry Up Henry []

04/05/15, SA, Race 7, 3:33 PT
100.0000 :3: Bourne Hot [9/5 * ] pulled up, vanned off
098.8322 :6: Smokin' Ten [6-1]
098.0732 :8: Sidepocket Champ [4-1] 2nd - 4.00 3.20
096.6350 :10: Takeit Tothe Limit [12-1]
095.7628 2 Takem by Surprise [12-1] 3rd - 11.20
095.5474 4 Matzoh Ball Magic [5-1]
095.3867 7 Lolo El Canonero [5-1] 1st - 16.20 6.80 4.80
095.3418 9 Small Town Cop [12-1] 4th
094.8898 5 Pioneer Charlie [12-1]
094.6185 1 Porchetto [15-1] *SCR*

04/05/15, SA, Race 8, 4:06 PT
100.0000 :12: Qiaona [6-1]
099.4957 :4: Elektrum (IRE) [5/2 * ] 1st - 4.20 3.20 2.60
099.3628 :10: Valiant Emilia (PER) [8-1]
098.1908 :1: Full Ransom [15-1]
098.0669 5 Lady Asano [6-1] 3rd - 5.00
097.5311 8 Magic Spot [6-1]
097.2953 9 Colonel Joan [8-1]
097.0652 11 Emerald Star (GB) [6-1]
096.5377 7 (F)Moanin (FR) [12-1] 2nd - 20.40 10.40
095.8266 3 Diamond Stilettos (IRE) [12-1] 4th
093.6494 2 City At Dawn [15-1]
*Scratch* 6 Keri Belle []

04/05/15, SA, Race 9, 4:41 PT
100.0000 :6: Blind Dreams [5/2 * ] off slow
098.3148 :7: Amberella [4-1] 1st - 9.20 6.00 5.40
097.0254 :2: Del Mar Dixie [3-1] 2nd - 5.80 4.80
096.3181 :5: Sweet Sense [3-1]
095.8897 3 Chicago Angel [15-1]
095.8548 9 Frannie'sspirittoo [12-1] 4th
095.7941 10 Mudge [8-1] 3rd - 8.80
094.7990 4 Is This Georgia [30-1]
092.9278 11 Union Blaze [30-1]
091.0848 8 Drinksarespensive [30-1] eased
*Scratch* 1 Warrior Thatcher []