final fractions

[sbcaris]

The Santa Anita Derby did not have any horses qualifying on my final fraction time of 37 4/5 or 12 4/5. I will still list the results here:

Santa Anita Derby----------6furlongs---------9 furlongs------Final 3/8---1/8
Dortmund--------------------110 2/5-------------1:48 3/5-----38 1/5---13 flat
One Lucky Dane-------------110 3/5-------------1:49 3/5-----39------- 13 1/5
Bolo--------------------------111------------------150----------39--------13 flat
Prospect Park----------------111------------------150---------39---------13 1/5

Note: Nobody qualifies from the above race

Wood Memorial--------------6 furlongs-------9 furlongs------Final 3/8----1/8
Frosted------------------------113 4/5---------1:50 1/5--------36 2/5-----12 2/5
Tencedur----------------------113 3/5---------1:50 3/5--------37 flat-----13 flat
El Kabeir----------------------114 2/5---------1:51 2/5--------37 flat-----12 3/5

Note: All three of the above in the Wood qualify.

Bluegrass-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carpe Diem-------------------112 1/5----------149 3/5-------37 2/5----12 4/5
Danzig Moon------------------112 4/5----------150 1/5-------37 2/5----12 3/5
Frammento--------------------113 3/5---------151------------37 2/5----12 2/5

All three of the above qualify in the Bluegrass. The third place finisher, Ocho Ocho Ocho did not qualify.

[sammy the sage]

thanks for posting this...will actually be VERY significant.... ;)

[PaceMasterT]

The Santa Anita Derby did not have any horses qualifying on my final fraction time of 37 4/5 or 12 4/5. I will still list the results here:

Santa Anita Derby----------6furlongs---------9 furlongs------Final 3/8---1/8
Dortmund--------------------110 2/5-------------1:48 3/5-----38 1/5---13 flat
One Lucky Dane-------------110 3/5-------------1:49 3/5-----39------- 13 1/5
Bolo--------------------------111------------------150----------39--------13 flat
Prospect Park----------------111------------------150---------39---------13 1/5

Note: Nobody qualifies from the above race

Wood Memorial--------------6 furlongs-------9 furlongs------Final 3/8----1/8
Frosted------------------------113 4/5---------1:50 1/5--------36 2/5-----12 2/5
Tencedur----------------------113 3/5---------1:50 3/5--------37 flat-----13 flat
El Kabeir----------------------114 2/5---------1:51 2/5--------37 flat-----12 3/5

Note: All three of the above in the Wood qualify.

Bluegrass-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carpe Diem-------------------112 1/5----------149 3/5-------37 2/5----12 4/5
Danzig Moon------------------112 4/5----------150 1/5-------37 2/5----12 3/5
Frammento--------------------113 3/5---------151------------37 2/5----12 2/5

All three of the above qualify in the Bluegrass. The third place finisher, Ocho Ocho Ocho did not qualify.

VERY flawed analysis. I could go jog around the track 3 times and run a way faster 4th lap than if someone was pushing me to go much faster the first 3 laps. Wood Memorial a very weak field not being able to hold on to those fractions.

[Some_One]

VERY flawed analysis. I could go jog around the track 3 times and run a way faster 4th lap than if someone was pushing me to go much faster the first 3 laps. Wood Memorial a very weak field not being able to hold on to those fractions.

But the nature of US dirt racing is that the pace is on from the start and you don't have a great variety of in the percentage of fraction/final times like you do on AW or turf.

[sbcaris]

PacemasterT: If it were a flawed analysis then how come 69% of the last 42 Derby winners fit the above angle of achieving a final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less or a 12 4/5 final 1/8 or less. These types are winning the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation. In addition the angle is statistically significant with a p value under .001 In addition the angle gets a positive ROI of 41% profit.

Furthermore, 4 of the last 5 Derby winners qualified on the above angle.

If the above is flawed perhaps you could post a better angle.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The Santa Anita Derby did not have any horses qualifying on my final fraction time of 37 4/5 or 12 4/5. I will still list the results here:

Santa Anita Derby----------6furlongs---------9 furlongs------Final 3/8---1/8
Dortmund--------------------110 2/5-------------1:48 3/5-----38 1/5---13 flat
One Lucky Dane-------------110 3/5-------------1:49 3/5-----39------- 13 1/5
Bolo--------------------------111------------------150----------39--------13 flat
Prospect Park----------------111------------------150---------39---------13 1/5

Note: Nobody qualifies from the above race

Wood Memorial--------------6 furlongs-------9 furlongs------Final 3/8----1/8
Frosted------------------------113 4/5---------1:50 1/5--------36 2/5-----12 2/5
Tencedur----------------------113 3/5---------1:50 3/5--------37 flat-----13 flat
El Kabeir----------------------114 2/5---------1:51 2/5--------37 flat-----12 3/5

Note: All three of the above in the Wood qualify.

Bluegrass-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carpe Diem-------------------112 1/5----------149 3/5-------37 2/5----12 4/5
Danzig Moon------------------112 4/5----------150 1/5-------37 2/5----12 3/5
Frammento--------------------113 3/5---------151------------37 2/5----12 2/5

All three of the above qualify in the Bluegrass. The third place finisher, Ocho Ocho Ocho did not qualify.


Now eliminate those who have not broken their maiden within their first two starts and who is left? (19 of the last 23 [82.6%] winners have broken their maiden within their first two starts - how is that for a higher percentage angle?) :cool:

And after that, filter in the Buckpasser X and see who is left from that and we may have our main selection(s) for the win.

[OCF]

Now eliminate those who have not broken their maiden within their first two starts and who is left? (19 of the last 23 [82.6%] winners have broken their maiden within their first two starts

Who were the four that did not?

[Golf man]

If you combine this info with horses who have been on or near the lead at the mile time of their previous races, you get horses that are fast and in position to win.

Also note that Derby runnings are invariably colored by very fast early fractions, usually by non-contenders or contenders that get hooked up in speed duels. This makes pressers who won vs 113.xx times deep closers at CD, trying to make up position and lengths from 110-111 six furlong splits. Not a fun or profitable thing to be doing on the first Saturday in May.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Who were the four that did not?

Sea Hero
Go For Gin
Real Quiet
Charasmatic

[SecretAgentMan]

Sea Hero
Go For Gin
Real Quiet
Charasmatic



Real Quiet was very playable, & I had him pretty good, & the exacta.......as well as Go for Gin........I'm still scratching my head on Sea Hero.......Charismatic was only playable off his Lexington huge beyer figure, but no way did I play him.

There are a few horses where you gotta throw out some angles when you think they can run a big race & win come May.

Pay attention to what the trainers say from here on out.....Baffert basically was saying Real Quiet would win, if you knew how to read between the lines.

[f2tornado]

Real Quiet placed in Santa Anita Derby and his final time was still a sub 1:48. Those are always very live Derby horses. I'm basically waiting on Pharoah and perhaps Far Right at this point since every other horse seems to have a red flag per my angles and Pharoah's Rebel did not inspire. About ready to waive the white flag and watch without anything more than a token wager.

[SecretAgentMan]

Real Quiet placed in Santa Anita Derby and his final time was still a sub 1:48. Those are always very live Derby horses. I'm basically waiting on Pharoah and perhaps Far Right at this point since every other horse seems to have a red flag per my angles and Pharoah's Rebel did not inspire. About ready to waive the white flag and watch without anything more than a token wager.


I care less what AP does next week, he's not winning the KD.......I definitely want to see what Far Right does......although he's got one of the slowest wins at 1 1/16 I've seen in quite a while, unless he runs great, he will be a toss as well.

Don't give up on the derby yet, not every horse will fit every angle......Chrome last year had several angles going against him, but I didn't care because his talents over last years 3 year old crop was a huge advantage.

We don't have a big gap between the best this year & a lower tier.......

[Some_One]

Sea Hero
Go For Gin
Real Quiet
Charasmatic

Charasmatic's final prep was in the 8.5f Lexington, how did you get a final 1/8 fractional time for him?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Charasmatic's final prep was in the 8.5f Lexington, how did you get a final 1/8 fractional time for him?

This was the answer to "which four Derby winners did not break their maidens within the first two starts?" Nothing to do with the time of the final 1/8th.

[f2tornado]

Don't give up on the derby yet, not every horse will fit every angle......Chrome last year had several angles going against him, but I didn't care because his talents over last years 3 year old crop was a huge advantage.

We don't have a big gap between the best this year & a lower tier.......

Chrone had double Buckpasser-x, Countess Wanda conduct mare, and ran a sub 1:48 SA Derby. That's a freaking hat trick. About the only thing going against it was Pulpit on top. It was an easy bet. I got nothing this year unless I forgive the turtle speed at Gulf. Carpe Diem fits somewhat but not a fan of Storm Cat when something like 0-44 in Derby. No shame in preserving the wallet for a day when I feel I have a better edge.

[OCF]

Sea Hero
Go For Gin
Real Quiet
Charasmatic

Thanks

[SecretAgentMan]

Sea Hero
Go For Gin
Real Quiet
Charasmatic



Orb won his maiden race in his 4th race.......

[BlueChip@DRF]

Orb won his maiden race in his 4th race.......

You are correct, sir. So that makes five. And he did not lose again until The Preakness.

The time qualifiers have no Buckpasser X, and those disqualified by slow time do.

What to do....?

[Some_One]

An angle I posted last year was:
"Back to the Brisnet historical PP's, over the last 14 derbies, 11 times the winner recorded at least a 101 LP figure in their prep (the other 3 were a 98, 96 and a 79 to the statistical anomaly that was Mine That Bird).

Looking to the Derby, triple digits are with Danza with a 106 LP last out, Dance with Fate 101 (poly) & Ride on Curlin 101.

Above 95 are C Chrome (97), General A Rod (97), Wildcat Red (99), Chitu (96)"

The KD website has updated PP's for the weekend races, so here is what has been posted for the contenders done with their preps and we wait for AP and the Ark Derby.

International Star 107
Danzig Moon 102
Carpe Diem 101
Frosted 101
Standford 98
War Story 96
-------------
El Kabeir 95
Tencendur 94
Firing Line 94
Materiality 90
Dortmund 89
Upstart 88
One Lucky Dane 82
Amis Flatter 78
Itsaknockout 63

[clocker7]

CC would smoke this bunch.

Dortmund is a big old guy with enough early foot to be positioned well. He is Baffert's best. And he is improving, imo. But this is not a stellar crew, and is vulnerable to a surprise.

[clocker7]

The time qualifiers have no Buckpasser X, and those disqualified by slow time do.

This sentence summarizes American dirt breeding. Namely, pumping out 9fers that might last 10f, but no guarantees.

2014 was an anomaly. 2015 is living up to the reality.

[BlueChip@DRF]

This sentence summarizes American dirt breeding. Namely, pumping out 9fers that might last 10f, but no guarantees.

2014 was an anomaly. 2015 is living up to the reality.

I guess it's back to old-fashioned pencil-and-paper handicapping.

[SecretAgentMan]

An angle I posted last year was:


The KD website has updated PP's for the weekend races, so here is what has been posted for the contenders done with their preps and we wait for AP and the Ark Derby.

International Star 107
Danzig Moon 102
Carpe Diem 101
Frosted 101
Standford 98
War Story 96
-------------
El Kabeir 95
Tencendur 94
Firing Line 94
Materiality 90
Dortmund 89
Upstart 88
One Lucky Dane 82
Amis Flatter 78
Itsaknockout 63


I like 3 horses on that 100 point list :)

[SecretAgentMan]

An angle I posted last year was:


The KD website has updated PP's for the weekend races, so here is what has been posted for the contenders done with their preps and we wait for AP and the Ark Derby.

International Star 107
Danzig Moon 102
Carpe Diem 101
Frosted 101
Standford 98
War Story 96
-------------
El Kabeir 95
Tencendur 94
Firing Line 94
Materiality 90
Dortmund 89
Upstart 88
One Lucky Dane 82
Amis Flatter 78
Itsaknockout 63


SomeOne, do you have a link to the updated past performances?

[Some_One]

The Kentucky Derby website has them, you just need to look up each horse individually though on their profile page

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

[SecretAgentMan]

Thanks SO, yeah I knee about them.individually, I thought maybe someone had the top 25 point Stang's in the same page.......one thing that bothers me is why wouldn't they update the top 20 to 25 point standing leaders with past performances in one click, its not hard for them to do.......

[sbcaris]

Here are the final fractions for the Ark Derby:

Horse--------------------6 furlongs--------9 furlongs----3/8 final---final eighth

American Pharaoh------1:10 3/5---------1:48 2/5------37 4/5-------12 3/5
Far Right----------------1:12--------------1:50----------38------------12 1/5
Madefromlucky---------1:11 4/5----------1:50 1/5-----38 2/5--------12 2/5

Note: I do not use data for final fractions for horses that finish worse than fourth. Mr. Z did not qualify on either 3 furlong final or final 1/8.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Love this stuff.

Thanks sb.

[OCF]

Here are the final fractions for the Ark Derby:

Horse--------------------6 furlongs--------9 furlongs----3/8 final---final eighth

American Pharaoh------1:10 3/5---------1:48 2/5------37 4/5-------12 3/5
Far Right----------------1:12--------------1:50----------38------------12 1/5
Madefromlucky---------1:11 4/5----------1:50 1/5-----38 2/5--------12 2/5

Note: I do not use data for final fractions for horses that finish worse than fourth. Mr. Z did not qualify on either 3 furlong final or final 1/8.

I'm calculating these fractions differently - using 1) the times as they are provided with 100ths of a second and 2) 1/4 length = .05 of a second, 1/2 length = .10 of a second, 3/4 length = .15 of a second

Using that method I got 12.28 for Far Right's last 1/8th and 12.13 for Madefromlucky's last 1/8th.

[sbcaris]

OCF: I do not believe it is that important to narrow the time down to .01 of a second. Also, I have always used the daily racing form past performances as my criteria and in those past performances they do not include hundredths and decimal points. They only list fractional times to the nearest 1/5 of a second.

Using your method is fine but I do not think it matters much and besides the differences are very slight.

Here is an interesting side note of why cappers must be flexible as opposed to using the angle as if it were written in stone: In 2010 Super Saver ran the last 3/8 of the Ark Derby in 38 flat and missed my 37 4/5 cut-off point by 1/5 of a second. However, in that race there were only 2 qualifiers on my final fraction indicator: Dublin and Ice Box. So Super Saver that year was third best on my final 3/8 indicator. I am not going to worry about him missing the angle by 1/5 of a second when in point of fact he was the third best that year for final 3 furlong fraction time. If there were 6 or 7 horses better than him I would have probably went to one of those other qualifiers.

A year after Super Saver's Derby win somebody pointed out to me the value of using the final eighth of mile angle as well as my 3 furlong fractional time. I then researched that angle and incorporated it in my book-Analyzing The Triple Crown.

Another interesting point: From 1994-2014 ONLY two horses won the roses that qualified on final 1/8 time that DID NOT qualify on final 3/8 time: They were: Super Saver in 2010 and Grindstone in 1996. All the others qualified on 3/8 time ( most of these also qualified on final 1/8 time).

Before 1994 you could not figure out the final 1/8 time of a 9 furlong race because the racing form did not publish the mile point time in those years.

[Tom]

The charts did.

[f2tornado]

Before 1994 you could not figure out the final 1/8 time of a 9 furlong race because the racing form did not publish the mile point time in those years.

There are some youtube videos that may have the times on them. I just looked at one the 1993 Bluegrass videos where Sea Hero finished 4th. The mile time in that one was 1:37.0 with a final of 1:49.0. They were hauling down the stretch in that one.

[OCF]

OCF: I do not believe it is that important to narrow the time down to .01 of a second. Also, I have always used the daily racing form past performances as my criteria and in those past performances they do not include hundredths and decimal points. They only list fractional times to the nearest 1/5 of a second.

Using your method is fine but I do not think it matters much and besides the differences are very slight.

Here is an interesting side note of why cappers must be flexible as opposed to using the angle as if it were written in stone: In 2010 Super Saver ran the last 3/8 of the Ark Derby in 38 flat and missed my 37 4/5 cut-off point by 1/5 of a second. However, in that race there were only 2 qualifiers on my final fraction indicator: Dublin and Ice Box. So Super Saver that year was third best on my final 3/8 indicator. I am not going to worry about him missing the angle by 1/5 of a second when in point of fact he was the third best that year for final 3 furlong fraction time. If there were 6 or 7 horses better than him I would have probably went to one of those other qualifiers.

A year after Super Saver's Derby win somebody pointed out to me the value of using the final eighth of mile angle as well as my 3 furlong fractional time. I then researched that angle and incorporated it in my book-Analyzing The Triple Crown.

Another interesting point: From 1994-2014 ONLY two horses won the roses that qualified on final 1/8 time that DID NOT qualify on final 3/8 time: They were: Super Saver in 2010 and Grindstone in 1996. All the others qualified on 3/8 time ( most of these also qualified on final 1/8 time).

Before 1994 you could not figure out the final 1/8 time of a 9 furlong race because the racing form did not publish the mile point time in those years.

Thanks for the other information, it is interesting.

Neither do I think having the time down to .01 of a second is particularly important, I just do it that way because the necessary information is readily available.

I would point out that Far Right picked up 1 1/2 lengths on the leader in the final 1/8th while Madefromlucky picked up 2 1/4 lengths. Given that, I would not be comfortable using a method that returned a result of Far Right having been faster.

[Some_One]

An angle I posted last year was:
"Back to the Brisnet historical PP's, over the last 14 derbies, 11 times the winner recorded at least a 101 LP figure in their prep (the other 3 were a 98, 96 and a 79 to the statistical anomaly that was Mine That Bird).

Looking to the Derby, triple digits are with Danza with a 106 LP last out, Dance with Fate 101 (poly) & Ride on Curlin 101.

Above 95 are C Chrome (97), General A Rod (97), Wildcat Red (99), Chitu (96)"

Updated for Ark Derby Numbers
International Star 107
Danzig Moon 102
Carpe Diem 101
Frosted 101
Standford 98
War Story 96
-------------
American Pharaoh 95
El Kabeir 95
Far Right 94
Tencendur 94
Firing Line 94
Materiality 90
888 89
Dortmund 89
Upstart 88
One Lucky Dane 82
Bolo 81
Mr Z 80
Itsaknockout 63

[OCF]

Updated for Ark Derby Numbers
International Star 107
Danzig Moon 102
Carpe Diem 101
Frosted 101
Standford 98
War Story 96
-------------
American Pharaoh 95
El Kabeir 95
Far Right 94
Tencendur 94
Firing Line 94
Materiality 90
888 89
Dortmund 89
Upstart 88
One Lucky Dane 82
Bolo 81
Mr Z 80
Itsaknockout 63

Really interesting, particularly in regards to AP and Dortmund.

I would point out that Espinoza was easing AP before he hit the wire, have to think he could have otherwise easily made the group that includes all the horses except Mine That Bird.

[f2tornado]

Easing isn't the right word but yeah, looked like he didn't need to urge him any. That 95 figure seems weak on the surface. Bodemeister got a 105 LP in same race wiring the field. Hmm?

[SecretAgentMan]

Easing isn't the right word but yeah, looked like he didn't need to urge him any. That 95 figure seems weak on the surface. Bodemeister got a 105 LP in same race wiring the field. Hmm?



I thought the exact same thing when I saw AP's LP numbers & the pace numbers......Bodemeister's numbers were way better & on the same track.

[OCF]

Easing isn't the right word but yeah, looked like he didn't need to urge him any. That 95 figure seems weak on the surface. Bodemeister got a 105 LP in same race wiring the field. Hmm?

Look at the difference in the movement (or lack thereof) in Espinoza's hands between leaving the 16th pole and coming to the wire. The horse is under a tighter rein by the time he gets a few strides from the finish.

[f2tornado]

Espinoza did appear to back off towards the very end. That may have cost the horse a fifth, perhaps two. Makes one wonder how much reserve is in the tank should the whip come out or is what we see what we get. I'm bo longer doubting the horse after what I thought was a Rebel that looked good to the eye but bad on paper. The Ark looked better on both but that 95 LP causes a double take.

[sbcaris]

According to what I read somewhere 12 of the last 16 Derby winners had a late pace of 101 or higher. If this is true then one can expect 4/16 or 25% chance that the Derby winner will have a late pace figure less than 101. It is cause for concern but certainly not an impossible task to overcome like that of never racing at age 2. Or running worse than 4th in one's last start.

[SecretAgentMan]

According to what I read somewhere 12 of the last 16 Derby winners had a late pace of 101 or higher. If this is true then one can expect 4/16 or 25% chance that the Derby winner will have a late pace figure less than 101. It is cause for concern but certainly not an impossible task to overcome like that of never racing at age 2. Or running worse than 4th in one's last start.



I went back & looked at past 7 derbies.......only 3 of past 7 derby winners had a 101 LP or higher. The other 4 were below the number.

[sbcaris]

SAM: Who were the 4 winners that did not have a 101 or higher LP number?

[SecretAgentMan]

SAM: Who were the 4 winners that did not have a 101 or higher LP number?



Big Brown, Mine that Bird, Super Saver, Cali Chrome

[f2tornado]

If we use 96 as the cut off then the method has hit 10 of the last 15 exactas and 14 of the last 15 winners. The stat is kind of meaningless without some sort of impact value but it does a good job separating out some good horses. Ex: Revolutionary 94, Hansen 79, Scat Daddy 95 to name a few.

Years it did not work: 2014 Commanding Curve 2nd (91), 2009 Mine That Bird 1st (79), 2006 Bluegrass Cat 2nd (81), 2005 Closing Argument 2nd (79), 2001 Invisible Ink 2nd (93).

[Huddy Goodjob]

sbcaris- Will you list the final fractions for all Big 5 races in one message...and include the 1/4 time if possible.

[sbcaris]

Here is what I have:

Santa Anita Derby--No Qualifiers--Fla Derby No Qualifiers

Ark Derby:
Horse----------------------------6 Fur-----------9 fur--------last 3/8---1/8

American Pharaoh--------------1:10 3/5------1:48 2/5-----37 4/5----12 3/5
Far Right------------------------1:12-----------1:50---------38---------12 1/5

Wood Memorial
Frosted--------------------------1:13 4/5------1:50 1/5-----36 2/5-----12 2/5
Tencendur-----------------------1:13 3/5------1:50 3/5-----37---------13
El Kabeir-------------------------1:14 2/5------1:51 2/5-----37---------12 3/5

Blue Grass
Carpe Diem----------------------1:12 1/5------1:49 3/5-----37 2/5----12 4/5
Danzig Moon---------------------1:12 4/5------1:50 1/5-----37 2/5----12 3/5
Frammento-----------------------1:13 3/5------1:51---------37 2/5----12 2/5

[nads1420]

any data on Mubtaahij?

[sbcaris]

no data given so far on Mubtaahij

[OCF]

any data on Mubtaahij?

Here's some info from a DRF article:

"Is Mubtaahij good enough to contend in Louisville? Quite possibly. He did get a perfect trip Saturday, settling on the rail as three Japanese horses, Dear Domus, a rank Golden Barows, and Tap That, set fractions of 26.06 seconds, 50.04, and 1:14.31, all faster than par for this racing season, according to Trakus."

"The race was over, and Mubtaahij was geared down to win in 1:58.35 for 1,900 meters, about 1 3/16 miles, on a fast track."

Per cj in another thread there's no runup, which helps to explain the slow-looking 26.06 first quarter.

The second quarter would be 23.98, third quarter would be 24.27.

No final 3/8 or 1/8 available (per my limited research) since the distance was roughly 9 1/2 furlongs instead of 9 furlongs.

Maybe somebody else has come up with more info?

Link for DRF article: http://www.drf.com/news/mubtaahij-dominates-uae-derby-kentucky

[Huddy Goodjob]

Anything on the LA Derby?

[OCF]

The second quarter would be 23.98, third quarter would be 24.27.

I took a quick look at some recent Preakness (also contested at 1 3/16) charts, those second and third quarter fractions look like they would be competitive.

I can't see tossing Mubtaabhij. Unfortunately.

[nads1420]

I took a quick look at some recent Preakness (also contested at 1 3/16) charts, those second and third quarter fractions look like they would be competitive.

I can't see tossing Mubtaabhij. Unfortunately.


so if the UAE Derby is run at 1:58.1 how much of that do you take off for 'run off'

chrome ran the preakness in 154.4

[sbcaris]

I do not use data from that race in my checklist but the best finisher was International Star who raced 6 furlongs in 1:14 and 9 furlongs in 1:50 3/5 the final 3/8 in 36 3/5 and the final furlong in 12 4/5.

Stanford did 6 furlongs in 113 1/5 and 9 furlongs in 150 3/5 the final 3 furlongs in 37 2/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 4/5.

War Story ran 6 furlongs in 113 4/5 and 9 furlongs in 151 3/5 and the final 3 furlongs in 37 4/5 and the final 1/8 in 13.

Keen Ice 114 2/5 for six furlongs and 152 for 9 furlongs and the last 3 furlongs in 37 3/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 4/5.

[OCF]

so if the UAE Derby is run at 1:58.1 how much of that do you take off for 'run off'

No clue.

[Andrick]

No clue.

Pat Cummings (who covers the scene over in Dubai) on twitter estimated that it's typically in the 2.5 second range depending on the length of the race.

I also compared some Trakus data myself by using Secret Circle's 6F splits and found that he averaged a 21.60 quarter (all within a 21.3-22.0 range) and a 44.08 half (23.6-44.4 range) in six races at Santa Anita. Over in Dubai a couple weeks ago his splits were 23.93 and 46.58 for that same 6F distance.

Very limited research, I know, but does put it in line with what Pat said.

[Andrick]

Here's some info from a DRF article:

"Is Mubtaahij good enough to contend in Louisville? Quite possibly. He did get a perfect trip Saturday, settling on the rail as three Japanese horses, Dear Domus, a rank Golden Barows, and Tap That, set fractions of 26.06 seconds, 50.04, and 1:14.31, all faster than par for this racing season, according to Trakus."

"The race was over, and Mubtaahij was geared down to win in 1:58.35 for 1,900 meters, about 1 3/16 miles, on a fast track."

Per cj in another thread there's no runup, which helps to explain the slow-looking 26.06 first quarter.

The second quarter would be 23.98, third quarter would be 24.27.

No final 3/8 or 1/8 available (per my limited research) since the distance was roughly 9 1/2 furlongs instead of 9 furlongs.

Maybe somebody else has come up with more info?

Link for DRF article: http://www.drf.com/news/mubtaahij-dominates-uae-derby-kentucky

If you use the Trakus data (from race 4 in link below) it looks like he ran the final 200m in 12.65 even while geared down. Has him calculated at 37.41 for the final 600m if my math is correct.

http://www.dubaiworldcup.com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart

[SecretAgentMan]

If you use the Trakus data (from race 4 in link below) it looks like he ran the final 200m in 12.65 even while geared down. Has him calculated at 37.41 for the final 600m if my math is correct.

http://www.dubaiworldcup.com/race/racing-info/trakus-chart


Andrick, where would you put his factored times vs the other G1 winners?

[Viruss]

(any data on Mubtaahij?)

On one of the DRF webcasts they said that he Ran about a 95 beyer...if that helps

Earl J

[clocker7]

I have a question for sbcaris.

IIRC, there was a pretty strong wind at SA for their Derby. I can't remember which way the flag was blowing, but I vaguely remember that it was a homestretch headwind. I also remember that it was a hot day, and that the Santa Anas have been more pronounced this year.

If (a big if) all of that is true, would you take it into consideration? TimeformUS did so for the KD last year, iirc.

Thanks in advance.

Edited: the video of the race itself doesn't offer any clues. One would need a video of a bigger part of the broadcast.

[SecretAgentMan]

I have a question for sbcaris.

IIRC, there was a pretty strong wind at SA for their Derby. I can't remember which way the flag was blowing, but I vaguely remember that it was a homestretch headwind. I also remember that it was a hot day, and that the Santa Anas have been more pronounced this year.

If (a big if) all of that is true, would you take it into consideration? TimeformUS did so for the KD last year, iirc.

Thanks in advance.

Edited: the video of the race itself doesn't offer any clues. One would need a video of a bigger part of the broadcast.

Remember that strong headwind in the KD last year? Chrome won but no by much after being up over 5 lengths mid stretch & he received a low beyer, leaving everyone scratching their heads.

Dortmund received a 106 beyer, so I doubt there was much headwind.

[taxicab]

Thanks to sbcaris.....very cool stuff. :ThmbUp:
When I rated the strength of the preps(quality of horse/overall trip & pace structure of the race/fractional/eye test), I had the races rated similar to sbcaris fractional finishing chart:

1) UAE DERBY......competition was very strong.
2) WOOD.....Heated race played strong.
3) Blue Grass....Drop off to from the first two.
4) Louisiana Derby....The fourth good prep.
5) Arkansas Derby......Outside of AP,just a terrible field.
6) Santa Anita Derby......funny I like the unknown Baffert most of his three.
7) Spiral......If the winner likes the dirt,maybe.
7) Florida Derby......nothing to like.
8) Sunland Derby.....Crippled winner vs. a slow bunch.

[ReplayRandall]

Thanks to sbcaris.....very cool stuff. :ThmbUp:
When I rated the strength of the preps(quality of horse/overall trip & pace structure of the race/fractional/eye test), I had the races rated similar to sbcaris fractional finishing chart:

1) UAE DERBY......competition was very strong.
2) WOOD.....Heated race played strong.
3) Blue Grass....Drop off to from the first two.
4) Louisiana Derby....The fourth good prep.
5) Arkansas Derby......Outside of AP,just a terrible field.
6) Santa Anita Derby......funny I like the unknown Baffert most of his three.
7) Spiral......If the winner likes the dirt,maybe.
7) Florida Derby......nothing to like.
8) Sunland Derby.....Crippled winner vs. a slow bunch.
Totally disagree with UAE Derby, couldn't be any weaker.....

[SecretAgentMan]

Totally disagree with UAE Derby, couldn't be any weaker.....



That's another reason its so hard to guage Mubtaahij.....we haven't seen any of his competition race before, don't know any of the other trainers, etc.......I hope they scratch Mubtaahij, lol.......

[taxicab]

Totally disagree with UAE Derby, couldn't be any weaker.....

The field had accounted for 33 wins.
Every horse in the race was stakes placed.
8 of the 10 horses were stakes winners.
There were stakes winners from UAE/England/Japan/South America in the field.....including a 4yo Triple Crown winner from South America.

[SecretAgentMan]

The field had accounted for 33 wins.
Every horse in the race was stakes placed.
8 of the 10 horses were stakes winners.
There were stakes winners from UAE/England/Japan/South America in the field.....including a 4yo Triple Crown winner from South America.


A 4 year old triple crown winner?? How would a 4year old be allowed to race in a 3 year old restricted race for 3 year olds?

[taxicab]

A 4 year old triple crown winner?? How would a 4year old be allowed to race in a 3 year old restricted race for 3 year olds?

My bad.....I worded it poorly.
As a 3yo last year Sir Fever won the Uruguay Triple Crown.
Southern Hemisphere 4yo's are often eligible for 3yo Northern Hemisphere races.
So technically Mubtaahij beat older.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Dubai Sky (Spiral-G3 winner) is out.

[Huddy Goodjob]

Thanks for your help. Do you happen to have anything on Firing Line?

[sbcaris]

Firing Line has the following numbers:

Sunland Derby:

He ran 6 Fur in 1:09-----------9 furlongs in 1:47 1/5----final 3/8 in 38 1/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 3/5 because he passed the mile marker in 1:34 3/5

[sbcaris]

Who raced the fastest final 3/8 of a mile in the history of 9 furlong Derby prep races?

[nads1420]

My bad.....I worded it poorly.
As a 3yo last year Sir Fever won the Uruguay Triple Crown.
Southern Hemisphere 4yo's are often eligible for 3yo Northern Hemisphere races.
So technically Mubtaahij beat older.


those are some fascinating stats and info but how would a Uruguayan triple crown winner fare against average american horses or the 3rd race at monmouth park on a random tuesday afternoon? is it like football where the best canadian football player struggles to make an NFL roster?

[nads1420]

The field had accounted for 33 wins.
Every horse in the race was stakes placed.
8 of the 10 horses were stakes winners.
There were stakes winners from UAE/England/Japan/South America in the field.....including a 4yo Triple Crown winner from South America.

what is "stakes placed"

[BlueChip@DRF]

what is "stakes placed"

Finished 2nd or 3rd in a stakes race.

[Wiley]

Who raced the fastest final 3/8 of a mile in the history of 9 furlong Derby prep races?
Not sure what his final 3/8's time was and it was not considered a major prep, I think a reintroduced race that year, but Spend a Buck ran a 1:45-4 for 9 furlough's in the Garden State Stakes in 85.

This time was close to the then, maybe still, world record for Secretariat for 9 F at Belmont. SAB's race though was around two turns also, Secretariats was around one turn. I assume his final 3/8 had to be pretty fast, this is from memory so do not have any records of split times, though he was very fast early, so maybe not the fastest final 3/8.

This year reminds me a little of 85 with all of the preps producing strong winners all matching up in the Derby. That year it was Spend a Buck, Chief's Crown, Tank's Prospect, Proud Truth, Skywalker, Eternal Prince and Stephan's Odyssey as big winners coming together for the Derby. I guess it is appropriate since it is the 30th anniversary of Buck's dominating Derby.

[maddog42]

A few years ago, I nearly blinded myself making Pace of the race 3rd fraction Pars by hand for every moderately sized race track in North America. And I went back about 20 years and used those pars to try to see if they were predictive for the KD. I do admit that constructing pars for the distant past is dicey, but I did try and tended to use 10k claiming races to adjust for track to track. I really couldn't come up with predictive success, but using 6 furlong pace of the race pars was much better. Since that time I have been pretty successful in getting it down to 8 horses. Mine That Bird was a real borderline call and I made a bad one. So it goes. Good luck .

[BlueChip@DRF]

A few years ago, I nearly blinded myself making Pace of the race 3rd fraction Pars by hand for every moderately sized race track in North America. And I went back about 20 years and used those pars to try to see if they were predictive for the KD. I do admit that constructing pars for the distant past is dicey, but I did try and tended to use 10k claiming races to adjust for track to track. I really couldn't come up with predictive success, but using 6 furlong pace of the race pars was much better. Since that time I have been pretty successful in getting it down to 8 horses. Mine That Bird was a real borderline call and I made a bad one. So it goes. Good luck .

Hey, if you came that close, you might have something there.

[f2tornado]

Of all the Derby angles discussed this one held up for another Derby victory.

[luisbe]

Of all the Derby angles discussed this one held up for another Derby victory.
...and for the whole trifecta.

[f2tornado]

...and for the whole trifecta.

Dortmund came home a little too slow in Santa Anita Derby for Stanley's fractions but some folks prefer to use 38 flat instead.

[OCF]

My understanding was FL, having run in the Sunland Derby, wouldn't qualify.

[sbcaris]

I think the fastest final 3 furlongs in a 9 furlong prep race was Strike the Gold in 1991. He ran the last 3 furlongs of the Blue Grass in 35 2/5. I believe one other horse equalled that record but I am not sure of who that was.

Here are the final fractions for the Derby:

Horse------------------1Mile Time-------------Final Time--------Final Quarter
American Pharoah-----136 2/5----------------203-----------------26 3/5
Firing Line--------------136 3/5----------------203 1/5------------26 4/5
Dortmund---------------136 2/5----------------203 3/5------------27 1/5
Frosted------------------137 4/5----------------203 3/5------------25 4/5
Danzig Moon------------137--------------------204 2/5------------27 2/5
Materiality--------------139--------------------204 2/5------------25 2/5

Actually Frosted and Materiality had the poorest of starts so their final times were reasonably commendable. Materiality passed 11 horses from the mile point to the finish and Frosted came from 15th at the 6 furlong point to finish 4th.

[OCF]

I've got Keen Ice with a final 1/4 of 25.32.

[Some_One]

I've got Keen Ice with a final 1/4 of 25.32.

Check your numbers, should be 26.2ish

[OCF]

You're right, I was using the stretch call rather than the one mile call.

[TexasDolly]

I think the fastest final 3 furlongs in a 9 furlong prep race was Strike the Gold in 1991. He ran the last 3 furlongs of the Blue Grass in 35 2/5. I believe one other horse equalled that record but I am not sure of who that was.

Here are the final fractions for the Derby:

Horse------------------1Mile Time-------------Final Time--------Final Quarter
American Pharoah-----136 2/5----------------203-----------------26 3/5
Firing Line--------------136 3/5----------------203 1/5------------26 4/5
Dortmund---------------136 2/5----------------203 3/5------------27 1/5
Frosted------------------137 4/5----------------203 3/5------------25 4/5
Danzig Moon------------137--------------------204 2/5------------27 2/5
Materiality--------------139--------------------204 2/5------------25 2/5

Actually Frosted and Materiality had the poorest of starts so their final times were reasonably commendable. Materiality passed 11 horses from the mile point to the finish and Frosted came from 15th at the 6 furlong point to finish 4th.

SB, The fractions on Firing Line look off by a fifth ,probably a typo. Not sure which one but they don't jive. Also, the charts I have, have Firing Line ahead of AP at the mile call.

[sbcaris]

Firing Line at the mile call was a head in front of American Pharaoh. I always use the same time for horses within a head of each other. So American Pharaoh and Firing Line ran the mile in 1:36 2/5.

[ReplayRandall]

Trivia question- What horse ran the second fastest Derby ever?.......Hint- It wasn't Monarchos.

[sbcaris]

Texas Dolly: Yes I made a type with regard to Firing Line. He ran the mile in the same time as American Pharaoh 136 2/5.

[f2tornado]

Trivia question- What horse ran the second fastest Derby ever?.......Hint- It wasn't Monarchos.

Sham finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind the great Secretariat.

[ReplayRandall]

Sham finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind the great Secretariat.
Bingo.....I'll make it tougher next time.

[Tom]

Everyone said Sec was a big horse, but Sham every time Sham saw him, he got smaller and smaller.:cool:

[sbcaris]

Actually credit for the second fastest Derby ever was given to Monarchos who won in 1:59 4/5. They do not give credit for horses who did not win the Derby as among the fastest of all time. Only credit is given to a winning horse's times, not a second place finisher.

The third fastest of all time was Northern Dancer 2:00 flat in 1964.. He ran the last quarter in 24 flat. The second fastest final quarter in history behind the Great Secretariat.