Blue Grass Stakes

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Of the 3 major Derby preps this weekend, the Blue Grass may be the the most contentious field while also being the most highly contested.

Little doubt that Carpe Diem will go off as chalk, but there are plenty of entries in here that can upset the apple cart and earn their way to Louisville.

:1: Ocho Ocho Ocho: I was on this colt's bangwagon earlier, and took it in the gut in the San Felipe as he got banged around early and was never a factor. His trip to stay away from Dortmund is concerning. I'd much rather he have stayed at Santa Anita to take another crack at the Big D than to ship here. Now this diminutive colt pulls the rail again, and is pretty much forced to get out and be on the pace early.

:2: Gorgeous Bird: A lot of smart horse players have been excited about this one. He didn't quite deliver in the Fountain of Youth, but maybe he just needed to get out of South Florida? He has had a good rest since that effort, and in his lone work seemed too at least take to the new surface. At the very least, has to be considered in almost any exotic ticket.

:3: Pepper Roani: Took him 6 times to break his Maiden, but he is improving. He'll also appreciate the longer distance. A monster step up in class, but he could clunk up in the bottom of some exotics. Gotta respect just about any horse Maker enters at Keeneland.

:4: Unrivaled: Nice breeding, but this colt just looks completely outclassed in here. Hard to take a Parx shipper seriously in with these. He'll be well back, and would need a ridiculous pace up front to catch any piece of this one. That isn't likely to happen.

:5: Carpe Diem: Deserving favorite that has ran solid in all 4 career races. The one to beat.

:6: Frammento: He clunked up for a nice Show in the Fountain of Youth as he closed from absolutely nowhere. Went off at 64/1 in that one, and now has a ML of 8/1:eek:. He has been craving more distance, and will get it here. A very interesting entry, with talent, that has trained lights out since the Fountain of Youth. Is he ready to pop a big one?

:7: Classy Class: A lot has been expected of him, but he really came up short in the Withers and Gotham. While he finished 3rd in both races, and not all that far back, he really was never a threat in either race. Did they ship here to stay away from Far From Over and El Kabeir to run into this crowd? Tough for me to like.

:8: Danzig Moon: That Tampa Bay Derby isn't as ugly as it looks. Carpe Diem wasn't getting beat that day, and this one was saved a bit in the stretch for the next one. He has been training very well rolling in here, and you have to like the breeding as this one stretches out. I likely see this one as a much bigger contender than most.

In the end: The biggest question in here is where is the speed going to come from? Could Carpe Diem inherit a pedestrian pace and walk this one home? I have to think Ocho (3x) and Classy Class look to get involved in the race earlier this time around. With the new surface at Keeneland it really is anybody's guess in here, and we'll all need to pay serious attention to how the track plays tomorrow and Saturday leading up to this race.

I'll have to wait to make selections as we have such a huge question mark about the Keeneland track. Either way, this sets up to be a very good wagering race, even with a huge favorite that could walk home a victory.

[nads1420]

im very interested in this race. If Carpe Diem looks as good as he has looked he will be my derby pick. I love that top of the stretch burst he has shown and the only race he lost he had a brutal trip.

https://youtu.be/huBlqq5VV2U?t=1m24s

[Lemon Drop Husker]

im very interested in this race. If Carpe Diem looks as good as he has looked he will be my derby pick. I love that top of the stretch burst he has shown and the only race he lost he had a brutal trip.

https://youtu.be/huBlqq5VV2U?t=1m24s

I had Ami's Flatter in that one. :(

Carpe Diem put 'em to shame and did the real running when it really mattered. Gotta love the ears pinned back rolling into the finish line just asking for more distance. Breeding is spectacular. Solid connections with Pletcher (I know many don't like him) and Velazquez, and was sold for $1.6M.

Hard to see him taking a step backwards in such a key race for him rolling into the Derby. Somebody will need to run a monster. However, there is enough talent in here that somebody could really pop a big enough one to beat Carpe Diem; even at his best.

[SecretAgentMan]

Frammento & Classy Class will be running for 2nd.......I don't think any of these horses in this race can beat Carpe.......seize the day!

[Tall One]

None of these preps Saturday leave a lot to the imagination. Value is on the undercard and horizontals surrounding them. Ocho will probably get the lead by default, and with his post, probably wont be a surprise to us.

Rained from 10 am-6pm today...monsooned on my home from work at 5.. :eek: With showers all day tomorrow and cooling temps all weekend, the track might be the biggest obstacle in CD's way.

[SecretAgentMan]

None of these preps Saturday leave a lot to the imagination. Value is on the undercard and horizontals surrounding them. Ocho will probably get the lead by default, and with his post, probably wont be a surprise to us.

Rained from 10 am-6pm today...monsooned on my home from work at 5.. :eek: With showers all day tomorrow and cooling temps all weekend, the track might be the biggest obstacle in CD's way.


I just hope that we have a sunny day on derby day. Although the rain never swayed me from.playing my horse, just don't like a sloppy track.

[f2tornado]

Carpe Diem is the class of this field and will be used on top of my tickets. The horse already won at the track in grand fashion last year. About the only possible fly in the ointment is heavy rain Friday into Friday night will result in a drying track at post time which can occasionally lead to weird results. This should help Unrivaled who has a knack of running on off tracks with mostly favorable results. This colt nearly broke maiden at the track coming wide from a different zip code to be nosed out at the wire. I suspect the horse will not be kept so far back this time. Buckpasser/conduit mare combination suggest the horse could really like the distance. I will be using in my trifecta wagers and might box with Carpe in the exacta. It wouldn't be the first time the chalk got beat in the Bluegrass (Thunder Gulch, Street Sense). Frammento has a win at the track and closed well into slow fractions in the FOY. This one will also be in my tri wager. I would also expect a bounce back effort from Ocho and will probably stick that one in there too.

[nads1420]

I just hope that we have a sunny day on derby day. Although the rain never swayed me from.playing my horse, just don't like a sloppy track.

gotta like American Pharaoh in the rain

[ArlJim78]

I'm going to have a few plays using Pepper Roani in all the slots. He has the look of an upsetter and will be a decent price. I don't know why he wouldn't take to dirt, and in his last couple races he displayed a sharp burst of speed on the turn at a place where its not easy being a closer with that cloudy kickback.

[boys at tosconova]

None of these preps Saturday leave a lot to the imagination.

pretty much sums up every prep this far.

you know it's bad when you're hoping for some of the other horses to step up...and w/ the abbreviated fields some of these horses will be too low to even play or offer the right value..considering the fact that they might not run a lick either, makes it an even worse preposition.

[Redboard]

Unrivaled looks like a nice value-play. His 92 beyer second-back is the second highest beyer in the field, after Carpe Diem’s. Coming off two straight wins is a plus. At 12-1, I’ll bite. Probably wheel him in all three positions with a few of the usual suspects.

[boys at tosconova]

i don;t think i've ever seen such a joke field running for a million dollars.

carpie diem and classy class should be 5-10L in front of the 3rd place horse

[letswastemoney]

i don;t think i've ever seen such a joke field running for a million dollars.

carpie diem and classy class should be 5-10L in front of the 3rd place horseI don't see the appeal in Classy Class.

He comes from the weaker inner dirt circuit at Aqueduct, and he seems like a sprinter.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i don;t think i've ever seen such a joke field running for a million dollars.

carpie diem and classy class should be 5-10L in front of the 3rd place horse

5 Lengths with Carpe and Classy?

I wager $1 Million you are wrong.

[boys at tosconova]

i don;t know where classy class is going to finish..i just threw him out as he's just classier and somebody has to finish 2nd.....lol.

i do know that this spot is as good as it's going to get for carpie to win by 10L in a G1 race.

this is a nothing field

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i don;t know where classy class is going to finish..i just threw him out as he's just classier and somebody has to finish 2nd.....lol.

i do know that this spot is as good as it's going to get for carpie to win by 10L in a G1 race.

this is a nothing field

I 100% believe you are wrong, and that this is as solid a field as we have seen in the KD race.

[Redboard]

Certainly better than the past few years where half the field was shipping in from Golden Gate and Turfway.

[boys at tosconova]

I 100% believe you are wrong, and that this is as solid a field as we have seen in the KD race.

solid? really.

only 1 horse other than carpie is a graded winner..and ocho is off an awful race.

half the field belongs in an allowance race..what's even more funny is half the world is touting frammento..horse will prolly go off 4-1 and be the favorite exacta pick under carpie. this alludes to the lack of viable alternatives...and frammento is just all likely to bounce and run like doo doo than he is to finish a distant 2nd

sorry, dude...just not seeing "solid" anywhere other than carpy.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I don't think this is a great field for a G1, but I think it's a competitive field of horses that with the exception of Pepper Roani have a good chance of hitting the board. Carpe Diem should roll, but I'd be willing to key Gorgeous Bird on top of a ticket or two at the right price. The GP surface has been brutal to analyze this year coming of that surface he gets one last chance to prove himself. The Wood is the worst field out of all the preps this weekend as far as overall quality.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

solid? really.

only 1 horse other than carpie is a graded winner..and ocho is off an awful race.

half the field belongs in an allowance race..what's even more funny is half the world is touting frammento..horse will prolly go off 4-1 and be the favorite exacta pick under carpie. this alludes to the lack of viable alternatives...and frammento is just all likely to bounce and run like doo doo than he is to finish a distant 2nd

sorry, dude...just not seeing "solid" anywhere other than carpy.

Name a prep that is/was more talented.

And damn, you sure are angry.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Name a prep that is/was more talented.

And damn, you sure are angry.


Check out the LA derby thread where this guy and I got into it because he didn't like my assessment of War Story and how I couldn't understand how horseplayers thought War Story was going to beat International Star in the LA Derby when he was already beaten twice previously. He got defensive like what you're seeing now. I think he's upset the derby preps have not yielded any longshot win mutuels.

[Tall One]

As much rain that fell local, I'd like too see how the draining system out there helped the monsoon. It rained here like it snowed a month ago.

Who knows how CD handles it tomorrow. 48 degrees and drizzling right now.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Check out the LA derby thread where this guy and I got into it because he didn't like my assessment of War Story and how I couldn't understand how horseplayers thought War Story was going to beat International Star in the LA Derby when he was already beaten twice previously. He got defensive like what you're seeing now. I think he's upset the derby preps have not yielded any longshot win mutuels.


What I didn't see was any Derby prep that you mentioned that was more talented than this one.

[Tall One]

This one tomorrow has more options with some upset possibilities.

[Stoleitbreezing]

What I didn't see was any Derby prep that you mentioned that was more talented than this one.

The bluegrass field is one of the more competitive fields outside of the favorite. I just don't feel it's a great field for a G1 as their is only two horses who've won a graded race. Many have chances for minor board spots tomorrow. I'm agreeing with you.

[Stoleitbreezing]

I think you'd be hard pressed to beat Carpe Diem, but I think Gorgeous Bird has an outside chance to do so.

[Tall One]

You really need to see how the track is listed and how it's status changes over the course of the day. That track can play funny when off. Sunny and 57 tomorrow. Turf cappers should pay heed too.

Me, I'm playing Aqueduct.. :lol:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

You really need to see how the track is listed and how it's status changes over the course of the day. That track can play funny when off. Sunny and 57 tomorrow. Turf cappers should pay heed too.

Me, I'm playing Aqueduct.. :lol:

The biggest joke is Aqueduct and NYRA racing.

You enjoy 4 and 5 horse fields. How does anybody play that shitfest? :lol:

[Ocala Mike]

I'm going to have a few plays using Pepper Roani in all the slots. He has the look of an upsetter and will be a decent price. I don't know why he wouldn't take to dirt, and in his last couple races he displayed a sharp burst of speed on the turn at a place where its not easy being a closer with that cloudy kickback.

Agree. My bet is the 3 to win, a little 3/5 exacta, a big 5/3 exacta, and a 5/all/3 trifecta.

[Tall One]

The biggest joke is Aqueduct and NYRA racing.

You enjoy 4 and 5 horse fields. How does anybody play that shitfest? :lol:



And you said tascanova was being testy...:D

Unless I've been looking at another set of pp's, the card up there today is pretty solid.

Sun is shining, and I'm taking that as a good omen. Think I'll go out to Keeneland and bet both cards. :p

[Lemon Drop Husker]

And you said tascanova was being testy...:D

Unless I've been looking at another set of pp's, the card up there today is pretty solid.

Sun is shining, and I'm taking that as a good omen. Think I'll go out to Keeneland and bet both cards. :p

Ha! Very true. :D

Sticking my neck out with :1: Ocho Ocho Ocho again. Putting a line through his last at Santa Anita, and putting faith in his shipping for the right reasons.

Carpe Diem will be on all tickets, and will look for the :2::6::8: to spice up the exotics.

[Appy]

Agree. My bet is the 3 to win, a little 3/5 exacta, a big 5/3 exacta, and a 5/all/3 trifecta.

Go get em Ocala. If odds are right the 3 a good trainer angle play at about 18%.

[SecretAgentMan]

My longshot play in here is Unrivaled........

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Ha! Very true. :D

Sticking my neck out with :1: Ocho Ocho Ocho again. Putting a line through his last at Santa Anita, and putting faith in his shipping for the right reasons.

Carpe Diem will be on all tickets, and will look for the :2::6::8: to spice up the exotics.

After the first 3 races at Keeneland today, it is a closer's paradise.

Switching to :6: Frammento.

[BlueChip@DRF]

After the first 3 races at Keeneland today, it is a closer's paradise.

Switching to :6: Frammento.

Yeah, watch the next few races won by wiring the field. :bang:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Yeah, watch the next few races won by wiring the field. :bang:

Not gonna put much stock in the chalk wiring a 4 horse field.

[boys at tosconova]

if carpy doesn't win by at least 5L it's dissapointing race imo.

really surprised to see him at 1-1..thought he would be 2-5

[Some_One]

Did like the :2: but the market has tossed him aside so he's unplayable, so I'll go with the :4:

[JimG]

I have the 5 as the best horse, of course. However, the 3 and 8 are nice overlays on my line. The bet for me would be 5/38 ex. and 3 and 8 to win.

[turninforhome10]

10c super
:5:
:3: :4: :7: :8: wheel 2.40

[cutchemist42]

Based on the win odds, a small win bet on Ocho.

[Tee]

Fore :) me the :1: & :7: out of the gate will have a big determining factor in the outcome of this race.

[Grits]

Easy win......CD. :)

[BettinBilly]

Based on the win odds, a small win bet on Ocho.

+1.

[BettinBilly]

Easy win......CD. :)

Indeed.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Carpe Diem rolls and puts forth our likely Kentucky Derby Favorite.

THAT was impressive.:ThmbUp:

[boys at tosconova]

Carpe Diem rolls and puts forth our likely Kentucky Derby Favorite.

THAT was impressive.:ThmbUp:

i expected moar. it was suppose to be easier than that.

[horses4courses]

Carpe Diem rolls and puts forth our likely Kentucky Derby Favorite.

THAT was impressive.:ThmbUp:

Still some races to be run before Derby Day.

[Tall One]

i expected moar. it was suppose to be easier than that.



Bailey kinda shit on his performance..said when CD felt the whip, he shoulda responded better? Who knows...Bailey is still a human anchor, imo..

[f2tornado]

The track was recovering from a slopfest yesterday. What more to want? The final 3/8th was in 37.6 and final 1/8th in 12.8. That puts Carpe Diem on the top of my Derby list.

[horses4courses]

qhZULM69DIw

[raybo]

Pretty good performance, IMO. Decent pace and won easy enough, on a track that was not as fast as it might have been. Basically, he did what he needed to do, what more can you ask, run his butt off just before the Derby?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i expected moar. it was suppose to be easier than that.

You mean the 5-10 lengths you guaranteed:lol:?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

i don;t think i've ever seen such a joke field running for a million dollars.

carpie diem and classy class should be 5-10L in front of the 3rd place horse

:ThmbUp:

[boys at tosconova]

Bailey kinda shit on his performance..said when CD felt the whip, he shoulda responded better? Who knows...Bailey is still a human anchor, imo..


horse shouldn't have had to struggle to get past ocho. still won by several lengths, but there could be some concern, and i know i downgraded the horse because of a non dominating performance

[nads1420]

going into the race i was really hoping for a big dominating performance by Carpe Diem... I love the burst he had in the Tampa Bay Derby. I was thinking of making him my derby pick and he still might end up being it but just wasnt the performance i was looking for...

I just dont know who else to pick. I like Dortmund a lot and really liked Big Brown but is the favorite going to win 3 years in a row? When was the last time that happened? Thats just playing the law of averages...

Interested in looking at American Pharaoh this weekend...

[f2tornado]

going into the race i was really hoping for a big dominating performance by Carpe Diem... I love the burst he had in the Tampa Bay Derby. I was thinking of making him my derby pick and he still might end up being it but just wasnt the performance i was looking for...


If it makes you feel any better consider the Blue Grass winner has only won the Roses twice (Strike the Gold 1991, Spectacular Bid 1979) and Carpe Diem is no Spectacular Bid. I guess you could put Alysheba with an asterisk in there too.

[nads1420]

If it makes you feel any better consider the Blue Grass winner has only won the Roses twice (Strike the Gold 1991, Spectacular Bid 1979) and Carpe Diem is no Spectacular Bid. I guess you could put Alysheba with an asterisk in there too.


Thats true although Street Sense finished 2nd in the Blue Grass...


This derby is WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDE open

[rastajenk]

Wasn't long ago that if a horse won big in a prep, the jock was criticized for not leaving something in the tank, or something like that. :p

[f2tornado]

Blue Grass to Roses
2007 - Street Sense, 2nd
1995 - Thunder Gulch, 4th
1993 - Sea Hero, 4th
1991 - Strike the Gold, 1st
1990 - Unbridled, 3rd
1987 - Alysheba, 3rd (DQ from 1st)
1979 - Spectacular Bid, 1st