Santa Anita Derby - I can't see Dortmund losing

[letswastemoney]

Here's my analysis (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/12032/dortmund-expected-to-score-again-in-santa-anita-derby.html)

In terms of underneath possibilities Bolo, Prospect Park and One Lucky Dane all have a shot to finish 2nd.

For something more creative, Cross the Line's dirt form is unproven which means he still could be pretty good on the surface. His sister Ria Antonia is familiar enough to people, and her solid dirt form (she did outrun Close Hatches at Keeneland) should hint dirt is not a problem for this colt.

[boys at tosconova]

dortmund might put the field to sleep.

put a line through the bcj for the great dane...doing that makes for an interesting horse.

bolo raced wide vs him last out w/ espinoza. i could see further improvement..w/ smith back and 2x on surface.

lol at o'neill..he better have a large vanilla milkshake for this one

[nads1420]

was Big Brown physically as big as Dortmund?

[boys at tosconova]

my read on lucky dane is not that of a sleeper that could possibly step up and crush the field (can't be ruled out either)..but one of baffert's fringe players,..considering the path chosen. + i don't think they'll jeopardize dortmund's chances by letting the dane do what he wants to do.

i would be surprised to see bolo race 3 wide the entire race here. hopefully he'll race even more strongly up front..the possibility of a boat race does exist because of the short field, big money and only wanting to get into the derby...all this plays into dortmund's hands

[letswastemoney]

my read on lucky dane is not that of a sleeper that could possibly step up and crush the field (can't be ruled out either)..but one of baffert's fringe players,..considering the path chosen. + i don't think they'll jeopardize dortmund's chances by letting the dane do what he wants to do.

i would be surprised to see bolo race 3 wide the entire race here. hopefully he'll race even more strongly up front..the possibility of a boat race does exist because of the short field, big money and only wanting to get into the derby...all this plays into dortmund's handsWell, Dortmund has all the points he needs, and his opponents' connections might be more hungry for the 100 points. But I think Dortmund will be ready to go regardless. He's too talented to not fire.

[Some_One]

Dortmund good, but more then happy to take him one with the 2nd and 3rd in the San Felipe, figure will get 3s+ each on them.

[BlueChip@DRF]

was Big Brown physically as big as Dortmund?

Big Brown had some monster hindquarters.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Here's my analysis (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/12032/dortmund-expected-to-score-again-in-santa-anita-derby.html)

In terms of underneath possibilities Bolo, Prospect Park and One Lucky Dane all have a shot to finish 2nd.

For something more creative, Cross the Line's dirt form is unproven which means he still could be pretty good on the surface. His sister Ria Antonia is familiar enough to people, and her solid dirt form (she did outrun Close Hatches at Keeneland) should hint dirt is not a problem for this colt.

Single in the Pick-3, or Pick-4.
I would take a shot at $5 show on everyone else if there is a bridgejumper.

[GaryG]

Prospect Park is developing nicely for Sise and I believe he can turn the tables on Dortmund. PP is peaking at the right time. Dane will face a lot more speed this time. He set soft fractions in that big win.

[f2tornado]

Sure, the race is Dortmund's to lose but I think Bolo has a legit shot here. Espinoza might have made the move too early last out plus it was first out on dirt after layoff. The horse ran about 40 feet more than Dortmund last time too. He gets Mike Smith again which is always a big plus. I expect improvement over last. Just a matter of if it is enough.

[boys at tosconova]

pp and bolo both raced well last time out...and both are eligible to get better. i suspect both will..but so could dortmund..i really don't know which one i prefer. both pp and bolo have some nice things to like.

unless the 2 is a monster that we don''t know about..he has to be the last one out of the group of four

wonder what kind of odds you will get on bolo/pp...prolly not as juicy as it should be.

[boys at tosconova]

as i continue to watch film on pp, it doesn't even look like they asked the horse to run until the stretch. besides showing sneaky early foot, seems like he could have given more at anytime in the race. that reason along w/ a few others suggest he could uncork one here

[minethatbird08]

My take is Baffert is going to send One Lucky Dane and rate Dortmund in this one. I know Dortmund has won from off the pace before but might as well give him a refresher on running down a horse because that is what he will need to do in the Derby.

[ArlJim78]

Dortmund gets passed or headed in each of the last three which he's won by less than 2 lengths combined. Not totally dominant in any of them.
He outmuscles them each time but at nine furlongs it's easy to imagine the possibility of a loss to one of the other improving colts, especially if the pace turns out on the fast side.

[SecretAgentMan]

With Dortmund getting the #1 post, he's either gonna rush out fast & try to rate behind the speed horse, or get out fast & wire the field because if he gets out like other horses w/o rushing, he may get pinched back on the first turn, but I think he's too fast to get himself into trouble.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Dortmund gets passed or headed in each of the last three which he's won by less than 2 lengths combined. Not totally dominant in any of them.
He outmuscles them each time but at nine furlongs it's easy to imagine the possibility of a loss to one of the other improving colts, especially if the pace turns out on the fast side.

He could be a grinder.

[letswastemoney]

He's too big to turn in a more nimble fashion. But once they straighten out, he looks dominant again.

[Grits]

Well, Dortmund has all the points he needs, and his opponents' connections might be more hungry for the 100 points. But I think Dortmund will be ready to go regardless. He's too talented to not fire.

Hope he fires better than Baffert's, Lord Nelson, a few minutes ago in the Bayshore. He closed amazingly to get second. But his run looked like that of a toddler. Bad, bad. :faint:

[JimG]

I'm going with #4 to upset Dortmund.

[boys at tosconova]

i really hope pp isn't too revved up here.

seems like a nice horse at good odds in the derby..i would just like to see the same type of race as he did in his last race. wouldn't be too surprised if they let him rip though. that just lowers his derby price

[Tee]

How far does the :6: Bad Read Sanchez go?

There is a scenario in my mind that gets the :3: Cross The Line in the exotics late.

Other than :1: Dortmund I like the chances of :5: Prospect Park the best of the rest.

[DeltaLover]

:2: ONE LUCKY DANE

[Relwob Owner]

Betting Kent D pains me but I really think the 5 is gonna win.

[BettinBilly]

I agree with Pincay. Until Dortmund looses, he's the horse to beat. Dortmund for the WIN, and Exacta on :4: with Mike Smith in the Saddle.

[Grits]

Crushed the field.

Now back to Duke and Mich St.

[boys at tosconova]

surprised the 4 didn't show any early foot.

boat race was over early.

[horses4courses]

surprised the 4 didn't show any early foot.

boat race was over early.

I didn't see any boats out there.
He ran lengths faster than Stellar Wind, and made the pace himself.

[SecretAgentMan]

Dortmund needed to wire the field coming from post #1

[Tall One]

About what we expected

[boys at tosconova]

I didn't see any boats out there.
He ran lengths faster than Stellar Wind, and made the pace himself.

million dollar races shouldn't be uncontested

[sammy the sage]

Hope he fires better than Baffert's, Lord Nelson, a few minutes ago in the Bayshore. He closed amazingly to get second. But his run looked like that of a toddler. Bad, bad. :faint:

Horse or jockey...aw never mind...

[horses4courses]

I'm seeing unconfirmed reports on Twitter that
Dortmund lost his right front shoe today at the start.

Hmmmm......

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm seeing unconfirmed reports on Twitter that
Dortmund lost his right front shoe today at the start.

Hmmmm......



If true, I wonder if he hurt himself......I'm hoping not, need him in there to take plenty of money derby day.

[PaceMasterT]

million dollar races shouldn't be uncontested

6 entries?!?!?!?!?!??!:mad:

[Augenj]

I'm seeing unconfirmed reports on Twitter that
Dortmund lost his right front shoe today at the start.

Hmmmm......
Might explain the odd start out of the gate.

[raybo]

Might explain the odd start out of the gate.

Yeah, something didn't look quite right on his break. Finished well, so probably was not injured at all, but a better break would have made his winning margin even larger.

[Rex Phinney]

Having been there today for this one, what a snoozefest.

What are all the other connections thinking? Dortmund goes to the lead and they allow him to run a 24 and change 2nd and 3rd quarter?

Jesus, somebody DO something, anything. It amazes me that on a track with such a historical bias towards speed that big time jocks and trainers just allow this big beast of a horse to get the lead and jog to keep it.

Where is someone to throw a rabbit in there? A speed ball longshot? Anything.

What a pathetic effort from the field to try and beat this favorite, I understand if he is just better than everyone else, but at least make him earn it.

[Some_One]

Having been there today for this one, what a snoozefest.

What are all the other connections thinking? Dortmund goes to the lead and they allow him to run a 24 and change 2nd and 3rd quarter?

Jesus, somebody DO something, anything. It amazes me that on a track with such a historical bias towards speed that big time jocks and trainers just allow this big beast of a horse to get the lead and jog to keep it.

Where is someone to throw a rabbit in there? A speed ball longshot? Anything.

What a pathetic effort from the field to try and beat this favorite, I understand if he is just better than everyone else, but at least make him earn it.

Maybe they can install a track surface that is very pace sensitive so that all running styles have a far shot at winning...oh wait they already tried that.

[Rex Phinney]

Maybe they can install a track surface that is very pace sensitive so that all running styles have a far shot at winning...oh wait they already tried that.

I wouldn't put it on the track.

This is why all Baffert's horses seem to run the same anymore. Because more times than not he knows he can get away with it. Game on Dude, Bayern, Dortmund, American Pharoah, Bodemeister, Paynter, Midnight Hawk the all ran the same way. Someone needs to at least take a chance and force the issue.

[Some_One]

I wouldn't put it on the track.

This is why all Baffert's horses seem to run the same anymore. Because more times than not he knows he can get away with it. Game on Dude, Bayern, Dortmund, American Pharoah, Bodemeister, Paynter, Midnight Hawk the all ran the same way. Someone needs to at least take a chance and force the issue.

Refer back to the Pacific Classic, Bobby got upset with a big longshot who took their shot by trying to rabbit the field, compromising Game on Dude. In small fields, you don't have connections taking chances, the 2nd and 3rd best horses will probably not want to compromise their chances at finishing top 3 so they take back, and given how flat the purse structure is in North America (and how much money is in Mdn races) and the sheer number of races, there is no incentive for 2nd/3rd tier horses to try for the big prize, they can make a good living in minor Graded races and finding the soft spots.

[plainolebill]

I wouldn't put it on the track.

This is why all Baffert's horses seem to run the same anymore. Because more times than not he knows he can get away with it. Game on Dude, Bayern, Dortmund, American Pharoah, Bodemeister, Paynter, Midnight Hawk the all ran the same way. Someone needs to at least take a chance and force the issue.

This has been Baffert's philosophy from the get go. I'm paraphrasing here but he's said that it's a lot easier to slow a horse down than to get them to go fast.

For what it's worth, and after the fact, I don't think there was a horse in that race that has the turn of foot to actually put any pressure on him. It's not like he was loafing along, 22 3/5 to the quarter is fast for a 9f race, when I saw that and the half fraction I thought he was toast.

[raybo]

Sure, another speedy early horse in the race could have made it more exciting. But, when you look at Dortmund's FR1 (1st call) velocities, he was over 2 feet per second faster than any horse in the field. Do the math and you'll see that for any other horse to have challenged him to run faster than he did, would have doomed their own chances of earning points, or money.

The best shot any other horse had of winning was if Dortmund had an off day and couldn't finish.

He was just more than the others could handle, early, and I suspect they knew that going in.

[boys at tosconova]

6 entries?!?!?!?!?!??!:mad:

it was awful racing this weekend. i don't know if i'm more upset about the lack of horses in the races or lack of them not trying even more.

thought i was watching harness racing this weekend. bolo and pp got what they deserved. most horseman were too content about getting good trips, getting points and qualifying rather then trying hard.

[raybo]

it was awful racing this weekend. i don't know if i'm more upset about the lack of horses in the races or lack of them not trying even more.

thought i was watching harness racing this weekend. bolo and pp got what they deserved. most horseman were too content about getting good trips, getting points and qualifying rather then trying hard.

Hmmm - I really enjoyed watching all 3 preps. I guess you just have a higher entertainment threshold than I do.