Interesting Derby Stats

[nads1420]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14meVH3tXTu6Lb9pgiiP8ouylmSFpsktVWVUNd2eQyzs/edit#gid=0

So i compiled a bunch of interesting derby stats here looking for a pattern. Ill add the field once its set.

Enjoy

[SecretAgentMan]

Thanks Nads......

[Inner Dirt]

I think the horse who gets the best trip has an advantage in the Derby more than any other race. I have had good luck betting the horse that was beaten by a bad trip in the Derby when the Preakness rolls around.

[nads1420]

i started by just seeing what anyone could of saw in the last 2 2nd place finishers then i just kept going....

[ReplayRandall]

Looks like every Derby winner on the list was at least 2nd in one of his last 2 races, and finished no worse than 4th in his last race. BTW, the 2nd place finisher in the Derby ALSO finished no worse than 4th in his last race.

[f2tornado]

What caught my eye was the sub-100 BSFs in final preps for five of last six Derby winners (Chrome was the exception). It's possible Beyer simply got some of these wrong as final times are comparable yet BSFs drastically different according to the linked chart. Examples: Santa Anita Derby - Chrome/I'll Have Another; two tenths difference yet +12 BSF on Chrome... Arkansas Derby - Super Saver/Smarty Jones; Super Saver was a tenth faster yet BSF was -11. Don't necessarily toss a horse simply because the BSF comes in a tad light so long as the final time is comparable. A 1:48 or less time from the Santa Anita Derby winner must always be taken seriously in Triple Crown races (Chrome, I'll Have Another, Point Given, Sunday Silence, Winning Colors, Codex, Affirmed).

[nads1420]

only big brown won the derby and had less then 4 career races finishing in the money. and he only ran 3 races and won them all

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Great stuff.

Thanks Nads!:jump:

[nads1420]

i added the final odds of each horse to see what that looked like and only 2004 had an exacta with 2 horses both less then 10-1

[nads1420]

added another tab to the page with the exotic payouts

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14meVH3tXTu6Lb9pgiiP8ouylmSFpsktVWVUNd2eQyzs/edit#gid=1943991770