Top Horse Analytics: 04/01/2015 AQU Picks

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA win payoffs highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: AQU-O, KEE
THA Suspended Tracks: GP, OP, SA, TAM
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU-I, BEL, CD, DMR, GPW, SAR

Well, we're back with AQU (outer) and KEE this week. During the first week or two of a new season, races don't seem to be formful whether you're a "chalk" or a "system" player so be aware when considering THA picks during this "relearning surface" period for jockeys.

Also, KEE went from synthetic to dirt and that makes it more challenging for THA which uses past years data bases to calculate parameters. Good luck! ;)

[Augenj]

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Race Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Equibase Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

04/01/15, AQU, Race 1, 1:20 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Pick 5 Races (1-5) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Seven Stars [5-1] Ortiz J L / Dutrow Sydney
096.3637 :2: Ginny's Grey [3-1] Cruz A / Leatherbury King T.
095.8171 :1: Star of the Forest [12-1] Rose J / Grusmark Karl M.
095.4777 :3: Keep Bustin [10-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
*Scratch* 6 Bounty Pink [2-1] Velasquez C H / Rice Linda
*Scratch* 4 Seven Dreams [5/2] Cancel E / Nevin Michelle

04/01/15, AQU, Race 2, 1:51 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $31,000
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :9: Mauro and Jesus [12-1] Cruz A / Milliron John
099.5338 :6: Aprettysmoothguy [4-1] Carmouche K / Esler Nicholas
099.1505 :5: Fidelius [4-1] Franco M / Weaver George
099.0476 :2: Devilish Grin [3-1] Jara F / Toscano. Jr. John T.
098.7545 7 Our Posse [5/2] Castellano J / Rodriguez Rudy R.
097.6782 8 Bad to the Roan [10-1] Rice T B / Matties Gregg M.
096.0038 3 Rockjaz [20-1] Jimenez S / Schwartz Scott M.
094.1179 1 Smooth Navigator [50-1] Falk J L / Falk Jacqueline
*Scratch* 4 Bustin Buttons [15-1] Beato I / Terracciano Neal

04/01/15, AQU, Race 3, 2:22 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 CLAIMING. Purse $47,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Bridgetta [7/5] Franco M / Levine Bruce N.
099.6534 :4: Broadway Music Gal [5-1] Cruz A / Englehart Chris J.
098.5039 :1: Kiss Cat [10-1] Beato I / Ferraro James W.
097.5998 :2: Darn That Trip [8/5] Hernandez Ortega P / Farro Patricia
096.4329 5 All Luv Me [15-1] Arroyo A S / Rojas Osvaldo
094.4503 3 Little Miss Lupe [20-1] Amaro C / Henry Neville

04/01/15, AQU, Race 4, 2:53 ET
7 1/2F [Dirt] 1.28.03 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Shesgotthemoves [4-1] Cancel E / Nevin Michelle
097.9659 :9: C C's Pride [5/2] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
097.5520 :7: Taylor Jagger [5-1] Alvarado J / Lindemann Lorita M.
097.4295 :5: Ocean Boulevard [3-1] Franco M / Violette. Jr. Richard
097.0702 8 Neptune Road [10-1] Rose J / Grusmark Karl M.
096.6369 2 Midnightinpositano [8-1] Jara F / Araya Rene A.
095.5658 3 Vinhdication Spot [30-1] Cruz A / Ferraro James W.
094.4441 1 Rock Show [12-1] Silvera R / Parker Joseph G.
091.8109 4 Spa Town Parade [50-1] Amaro C / Jones Eduardo E.

04/01/15, AQU, Race 5, 3:24 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 CLAIMING. Purse $24,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Talk to Me [7/2] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
099.9645 :1: Bella Fachi [12-1] Beato I / Terracciano Neal
099.4629 :2: Unrepented [8/5] Cruz A / Gullo Gary P.
097.9359 :5: Stage Name [5/2] Franco M / Contessa Gary C.
096.0367 6 Gingee [10-1] Arroyo A S / DiSanto Glenn B.
095.8517 4 Celtic Blessing [30-1] Lopez C C / Milne Joan
094.6846 8 Keen On Green [20-1] Amaro C / Henry Neville
093.9309 7 Discreet Malena [15-1] Silvera R / Quick Patrick J.

04/01/15, AQU, Race 6, 3:55 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Woodford Pine [5/2] Velazquez J R / Brown Chad C.
097.5381 :8: Beyond the Green [4-1] Carmouche K / Ryerson James T.
097.0539 :7: Overawe [4-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C.
095.6986 :1: Apollo Eleven [7/2] Ortiz J L / Rodriguez Rudy R.
095.4611 4 April Color [10-1] Cancel E / Pletcher Todd A.
094.8635 3 Pioneer of Wifi [12-1] Franco M / Dilger Michael
094.5827 6 Andrew's Got Zip [12-1] Rose J / Schosberg Richard E.
*Scratch* 5 East Side Kid [30-1] Worrie A S / Falcone. Jr. Robert N.

04/01/15, AQU, Race 7, 4:26 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 CLAIMING. Purse $55,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Bossmon [5/2] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
097.8410 :3: Cement Job [10-1] Rose J / Brown Bruce R.
097.6299 :4: Marine One [6/5] Alvarado J / Clement Christophe
097.5330 :1: Mark My Style [6-1] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C.
095.9930 5 Si Cology [5-1] Franco M / Barbara Robert
093.8706 2 Humbolt Street [20-1] Rodriguez I O / Sciacca Gary
093.4289 7 Rock Hard Energy [30-1] Amaro C / Kettell James

04/01/15, AQU, Race 8, 4:57 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $81,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Mail [3-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C.
098.6559 :7: Amberjack [10-1] Velasquez C H / Hushion Michael E.
097.8543 :5: Red Vine [5-1] Franco M / Clement Christophe
097.5829 :4: Kid Cruz [5/2] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda
096.8377 1a Three Alarm Fire [7/2] Velazquez J R / Albertrani Thomas
095.5341 2 Mr Palmer [5-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I.
094.2071 1 Awesome Vision [7/2] Cancel E / Albertrani Thomas
092.7633 3 Speak Logistics [30-1] Arroyo A S / O'Brien Leo

04/01/15, AQU, Race 9, 5:28 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Colorado Grandslam [5/2] Ortiz J L / Hushion Michael E.
099.6614 :3: G R's Giant [4-1] Alvarado J / Baker Charlton
099.3823 :4: Send It In [7/2] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A.
097.4284 :2: Freudian Lights [12-1] Rice T B / Breed Debra A.
096.3505 1 Wild Freud [10-1] Worrie A S / Chatterpaul Naipaul
095.5321 8 Jacob's Here [6-1] Velasquez C H / Quick Patrick J.
094.9062 7 Mangold [20-1] Garcia W A / Brown Bruce R.
092.4353 9 Royal Afleet [50-1] Arroyo A S / DiSanto Glenn B.
*Scratch* 6 Nin Pin [5-1] Jara F / Feron Kathleen M.

[Augenj]

WPS Takeout at AQU is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

04/01/15, AQU, Race 1, 1:20 ET
100.0000 :5: Seven Stars [5-1] 4th
096.3637 :2: Ginny's Grey [3-1 * ] 1st - 3.20 2.20 x.xx
095.8171 :1: Star of the Forest [12-1] 3rd - x.xx
095.4777 :3: Keep Bustin [10-1] 2nd - 3.90 x.xx
*Scratch* 6 Bounty Pink [2-1]
*Scratch* 4 Seven Dreams [5/2]

04/01/15, AQU, Race 2, 1:51 ET
100.0000 :9: Mauro and Jesus [12-1] 1st - 17.00 8.50 6.00
099.5338 :6: Aprettysmoothguy [4-1] 2nd - 6.50 3.80
099.1505 :5: Fidelius [4-1] 3rd - 3.50 $2 Trifecta $419.00
099.0476 :2: Devilish Grin [3-1 * ] 4th $2 Superfecta $1,265.00
098.7545 7 Our Posse [5/2]
097.6782 8 Bad to the Roan [10-1]
096.0038 3 Rockjaz [20-1]
094.1179 1 Smooth Navigator [50-1]
*Scratch* 4 Bustin Buttons [15-1]

04/01/15, AQU, Race 3, 2:22 ET
100.0000 :6: Bridgetta [7/5 * ] 2nd - 2.60 2.10
099.6534 :4: Broadway Music Gal [5-1]
098.5039 :1: Kiss Cat [10-1] 4th
097.5998 :2: Darn That Trip [8/5]
096.4329 5 All Luv Me [15-1] 3rd - 4.60
094.4503 3 Little Miss Lupe [20-1] 1st - 50.50 11.20 7.10

04/01/15, AQU, Race 4, 2:53 ET
100.0000 :6: Shesgotthemoves [4-1]
097.9659 :9: C C's Pride [5/2 * ] 1st - 5.50 3.10 3.10
097.5520 :7: Taylor Jagger [5-1] 4th
097.4295 :5: Ocean Boulevard [3-1] 3rd - 2.90
097.0702 8 Neptune Road [10-1]
096.6369 2 Midnightinpositano [8-1]
095.5658 3 Vinhdication Spot [30-1]
094.4441 1 Rock Show [12-1] 2nd -12.40 5.90
091.8109 4 Spa Town Parade [50-1]

04/01/15, AQU, Race 5, 3:24 ET
100.0000 :3: Talk to Me [7/2] 2nd - 4.80 3.50
099.9645 :1: Bella Fachi [12-1] 4th
099.4629 :2: Unrepented [8/5 * ] 1st - 3.80 2.80 2.70
097.9359 :5: Stage Name [5/2]
096.0367 6 Gingee [10-1]
095.8517 4 Celtic Blessing [30-1]
094.6846 8 Keen On Green [20-1] 3rd - 8.50
093.9309 7 Discreet Malena [15-1] eased

04/01/15, AQU, Race 6, 3:55 ET
100.0000 :2: Woodford Pine [5/2 * ] 3rd - 2.30
097.5381 :8: Beyond the Green [4-1] 1st - 8.00 3.50 2.30
097.0539 :7: Overawe [4-1] 2nd - 4.00 2.80
095.6986 :1: Apollo Eleven [7/2]
095.4611 4 April Color [10-1] 4th
094.8635 3 Pioneer of Wifi [12-1]
094.5827 6 Andrew's Got Zip [12-1]
*Scratch* 5 East Side Kid [30-1]

04/01/15, AQU, Race 7, 4:26 ET
100.0000 :6: Bossmon [5/2]
097.8410 :3: Cement Job [10-1]
097.6299 :4: Marine One [6/5 * ] 1st - 3.10 2.70 2.10
097.5330 :1: Mark My Style [6-1] 3rd - 3.30
095.9930 5 Si Cology [5-1] 4th
093.8706 2 Humbolt Street [20-1] 2nd - 16.00 5.90
093.4289 7 Rock Hard Energy [30-1] eased

04/01/15, AQU, Race 8, 4:57 ET
100.0000 :6: Mail [3-1 * ]
098.6559 :7: Amberjack [10-1]
097.8543 :5: Red Vine [5-1] 1st - 11.80 5.60 3.10
097.5829 :4: Kid Cruz [5/2] 2nd - 4.80 2.90
096.8377 1a Three Alarm Fire [7/2] 3rd - 2.30
095.5341 2 Mr Palmer [5-1]
094.2071 1 Awesome Vision [7/2] 4th
092.7633 3 Speak Logistics [30-1]

04/01/15, AQU, Race 9, 5:28 ET
100.0000 :5: Colorado Grandslam [5/2] 1st - 8.70 4.10 3.00
099.6614 :3: G R's Giant [4-1 * ] 2nd - 3.10 2.10
099.3823 :4: Send It In [7/2] 3rd - 3.00 $2 Trifecta $83.50
097.4284 :2: Freudian Lights [12-1] 4th $2 Superfecta $324.00
096.3505 1 Wild Freud [10-1]
095.5321 8 Jacob's Here [6-1]
094.9062 7 Mangold [20-1]
092.4353 9 Royal Afleet [50-1]
*Scratch* 6 Nin Pin [5-1]

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Very nice today! Love me some THA

[Augenj]

Very nice today! Love me some THA
Thanks. ;)