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sbcaris
03-31-2015, 11:15 AM
I did a study of the Ky Derby winners and second place finishers from 1968-2014 with regard to the names of the 7 stallions that are found in the X passing position. These stallions were the first, second, third and fourth damsire, the broodmare sire of the broodmare sire, and the two stallions in the 5th generation that are also in the X passing position. I just listed the name of every stallion in the above 7 positions for each Derby winner and second place finisher over the above time frame. Here are the results of that study:

Stallion-----------Number of Appearances in the 7 X Passing Positions

Buckpasser------18
Mahmoud--------15
War Admiral---- 12
Alibhai----------- 8
Tom Fool---------8
Princequillo-------7
Blue Larkspur----7
Bull Lea----------7
Bull Dog----------7
Sir Gallahad------6
Nasrullah---------6
Djeddah-----------6
Nashua------------5
Secretariat--------5
Equipoise----------5
Northern Dancer--5
Polynesian---------5

My favorite, Buckpasser, leads the list with 18 appearances. By the way, Buckpasser is a maternal grandson of War Admiral. As one would expect Haun's major large heart stallions-- War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur and Princequillo are near the top of the list. Another stallion of interest is Sir Gallahad who was a leading broodmare sire 12 times in North America once in 1939 and then again from 1943-1952 and again in 1955.

OCF
03-31-2015, 03:55 PM
I just listed the name of every stallion in the above 7 positions for each Derby winner and second place finisher over the above time frame. Here are the results of that study:

Stallion-----------Number of Appearances in the 7 X Passing Positions

Buckpasser------18
Mahmoud--------15
War Admiral---- 12
Alibhai----------- 8
Tom Fool---------8
Princequillo-------7
Blue Larkspur----7
Bull Lea----------7
Bull Dog----------7
Sir Gallahad------6
Nasrullah---------6
Djeddah-----------6
Nashua------------5
Secretariat--------5
Equipoise----------5
Northern Dancer--5
Polynesian---------5



I may be misunderstanding you, or possibly you just listed the sires that showed up at least 5 times in the 7 positions (?).

The total of the above is 132. It seems that if you gave all the results the total would 47 years times 2 horses times 7 X passing positions = 658, less some unknown number (maybe 50?) for inbreeding.

sbcaris
03-31-2015, 04:16 PM
OCF: What I did was ONLY list those stallions that appeared 5 or more times in that time frame.

There were a multitude of stallions with 4, 3, 2 and 1 appearances that I did not include in my list above.

OCF
03-31-2015, 05:23 PM
OCF: What I did was ONLY list those stallions that appeared 5 or more times in that time frame.

There were a multitude of stallions with 4, 3, 2 and 1 appearances that I did not include in my list above.

Thanks for the clarification.

sammy the sage
03-31-2015, 08:09 PM
so the ACTUAL REAL question....who's racing in THE Derby w/a large heart.. ;)

sbcaris
03-31-2015, 08:53 PM
The following horses have at least one of the following in the large heart X passing position:

American Pharaoh has Mahmoud and War Admiral in the X passing positions.

Carpe Diem has Mahmoud in the X passing position

Dortmund has Blue Larkspur and Princequillo in the X

Dubai Sky has Buckpasser and War Admiral in the X

El Kabeir has Mahmoud in the X

Firing Line has War Admiral and Princequillo in the X

Frosted has Blue Larkspur in the X

International Star has Mahmoud and War admiral in the X

Materiality has Mahmoud in the X

Upstart has Buckpasser in the X and Mahmoud also

War Story has Blue larkspur in the X

Note: almost all horses trace to one of the major 4 in the X passing position. Some are so far back in the pedigree that it is unlikely to have much of an influence. I like the X factor most when my favorite horse, Buckpasser is found in the X either close up or by way of a major stallion that carries Buckpasser in that position (such as Seeking the Gold, AP Indy, or Woodman or Unbridled)

OCF
03-31-2015, 09:16 PM
Lord Nelson (another with Buckpasser in an X passing position) has had two good workouts, including a bullet at 5 furlongs, since Baffert scratched him from the Sunland Derby. I'm not counting him out yet.

SecretAgentMan
03-31-2015, 10:46 PM
The following horses have at least one of the following in the large heart X passing position:

American Pharaoh has Mahmoud and War Admiral in the X passing positions.

Carpe Diem has Mahmoud in the X passing position

Dortmund has Blue Larkspur and Princequillo in the X

Dubai Sky has Buckpasser and War Admiral in the X

El Kabeir has Mahmoud in the X

Firing Line has War Admiral and Princequillo in the X

Frosted has Blue Larkspur in the X

International Star has Mahmoud and War admiral in the X

Materiality has Mahmoud in the X

Upstart has Buckpasser in the X and Mahmoud also

War Story has Blue larkspur in the X

Note: almost all horses trace to one of the major 4 in the X passing position. Some are so far back in the pedigree that it is unlikely to have much of an influence. I like the X factor most when my favorite horse, Buckpasser is found in the X either close up or by way of a major stallion that carries Buckpasser in that position (such as Seeking the Gold, AP Indy, or Woodman or Unbridled)


Stan, I'm I reading this right......Upstart has a 33 to 27 edge on International Star?

sbcaris
04-01-2015, 07:02 AM
Explain what you mean by a 33 to 27 edge.

SecretAgentMan
04-01-2015, 10:06 AM
Explain what you mean by a 33 to 27 edge.


18+15= 33.......15+12= 27

sbcaris
04-01-2015, 11:15 AM
Secret Agent Man: Adding them up can be somewhat misleading because every horse that has Buckpasser in the X passing position also has War Admiral and Blue Larkspur in the X passing position. The reason for this is that War Admiral is the maternal grandsire of Buckpasser and therefore Buckpasser carries around 50% of War Admiral's X chromosome. Furthermore, Blue Larkspur is the sire of Buckpasser's second dam, Businesslike and therefore Buckpasser carries around 25% of Blue Larkspur's X chromosome.

The bottom line is that Buckpasser has a great heritage and backed up that strong heritage on the racetrack (HOY in 1966) and at stud where he was the leading broodmare sire 4 times. His X chromosome was superlative.

BlueChip@DRF
04-01-2015, 12:50 PM
What do you think of I Spent It's pedigree? I like Mr. Prospector on the female side because of Myrtlewood (Blue Larkspur). Buckpasser is "out of range" (beyond 5th gen) but Princequillo is within (passing position?).

BlueChip@DRF
04-01-2015, 12:52 PM
I did a study of the Ky Derby winners and second place finishers from 1968-2014 with regard to the names of the 7 stallions that are found in the X passing position. These stallions were the first, second, third and fourth damsire, the broodmare sire of the broodmare sire, and the two stallions in the 5th generation that are also in the X passing position. I just listed the name of every stallion in the above 7 positions for each Derby winner and second place finisher over the above time frame. Here are the results of that study:

Stallion-----------Number of Appearances in the 7 X Passing Positions

Buckpasser------18
Mahmoud--------15
War Admiral---- 12
Alibhai----------- 8
Tom Fool---------8
Princequillo-------7
Blue Larkspur----7
Bull Lea----------7
Bull Dog----------7
Sir Gallahad------6
Nasrullah---------6
Djeddah-----------6
Nashua------------5
Secretariat--------5
Equipoise----------5
Northern Dancer--5
Polynesian---------5

My favorite, Buckpasser, leads the list with 18 appearances. By the way, Buckpasser is a maternal grandson of War Admiral. As one would expect Haun's major large heart stallions-- War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur and Princequillo are near the top of the list. Another stallion of interest is Sir Gallahad who was a leading broodmare sire 12 times in North America once in 1939 and then again from 1943-1952 and again in 1955.


Is the Princequillo count from non-Secretariat lines?

sbcaris
04-01-2015, 03:39 PM
Bluechip@DRF: What I did was list the 7 stallions in a 5 generation pedigree on the dam side that were in the X passing position of each Derby winner and second place finisher from 1968-2014. Then from that list I just counted how many times each of the stallions appeared. So, if Princequillo is found in the 6th generation or beyond he is not counted. Only those stallions within 5 generations are counted.

sbcaris
04-01-2015, 03:44 PM
To be more precise regarding my above answer--- I did not distinguish Princequillo by way of Secretariat or as a NONSECRETARIAT. I just counted the number of times Princequillo appeared in the X passing position within 5 generations.