Materiality and the Apollo Curse

[nads1420]

Fully aware of the Apollo curse but I wonder how many of those horses that gave it a shot were coming off a major prep win and a 100 Beyer... Figure ill throw that question out there since it seems some of you guys have amazing stat resources...

[OTM Al]

Fully aware of the Apollo curse but I wonder how many of those horses that gave it a shot were coming off a major prep win and a 100 Beyer... Figure ill throw that question out there since it seems some of you guys have amazing stat resources...
First I thought of from recently was Curlin

http://www1.drf.com/newsletter/CurlinLifetime.pdf

[Wiley]

Even more recent, Bodemeister ran a 108 Beyer in the 2012 Arkansas Derby and almost got it done in the Derby.

This is a stat that will go away in the not too distant future. Many horses are just brought up to the Derby lighter raced than in the old days, so more chances to break the curse.

The point system I think is a factor too with many of these horses. A lot of these Pletcher types don't hold together very long, so he gives them just a couple of races and then points to the big preps for a top effort to get the needed points to just get into the Derby. It's still a month out, so it's hard to get too excited about any of them, most likely many racing now, won't even make the race.

[letswastemoney]

It will be easier for a speed horse like Materiality to break it.

Inexperience matters more when the horse needs to cut through traffic.

[SecretAgentMan]

Like others mentioned, now a days horses are running lighter. Materiality is a very I terestung horse looking to break the curse. We will see it sooner than later.......

[Stoleitbreezing]

It will be interesting to see what happens with him in the derby. I'm not putting much stock in him though, as he's done his running only on the lead and only on a quirky Gulfstream dirt track. He has very little foundation/experience and a running style not conducive to hitting the ticket on derby day. Not for me with other classier speed in the gates.

As much as I disliked itsaknockout after the FOY I thought it was interesting that he was relatively ignored in the Fla Derby with the 6-1 price tag. The red flag was up for a Pletcher trainee who wins a 50pt prep then gets beat 20 lengths to the wire. Figured he didn't have a chance when he was that price. My guess its 50/50 that he makes it to the gate.

[letswastemoney]

I'm not so against speed horses in the Derby like others are. California Chrome won on the pace and I'll Have Another wasn't that far back.

The dynamics of the Derby make it so some speed horses turn into close range stalkers. They aren't all going to duel for the lead inmediately, because some of them will not be fast enough coming out of the gate. They only look fast in smaller races because there aren't 19 other horses.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not so against speed horses in the Derby like others are. California Chrome won on the pace and I'll Have Another wasn't that far back.

The dynamics of the Derby make it so some speed horses turn into close range stalkers. They aren't all going to duel for the lead inmediately, because some of them will not be fast enough coming out of the gate. They only look fast in smaller races because there aren't 19 other horses.



I agree......others like Chrome that stalked the pace were Funny Cide, Big Brown, Super Saver, Barbaro, & Smarty Jones to name a few that raced like Materiality......at least that's what I think.

[BlueChip@DRF]

With this new point system, it has done away with very good sprinters who do not belong at this distance.

[SecretAgentMan]

I just looked back 23 years, only 19 horses ran in the derby that didn't race as a 2 year old......Hoppertunity was scratched last year.

Bodemeister came in 2nd.......Curlin 3rd.......can't remember if any others hit the board.

One thing about Pletchers horses is he races them light, gets them to the derby, then sends them out for breeding.......Pletcher makes a ton of money getting 10% from the breeding

[letswastemoney]

I just looked back 23 years, only 19 horses ran in the derby that didn't race as a 2 year old......Hoppertunity was scratched last year.

Bodemeister came in 2nd.......Curlin 3rd.......can't remember if any others hit the board.

One thing about Pletchers horses is he races them light, gets them to the derby, then sends them out for breeding.......Pletcher makes a ton of money getting 10% from the breedingI would think that's not a huge sample size, and not all have them had a realistic chance anyway due to lack of talent. I believe the right horse will do it.

[Secondbest]

It's been a very long time since Apollo .For me until a horse does it its a bet against

[nads1420]

i liked Bodemeister. What ever happened to him? how did the rest of his career play out?

[SecretAgentMan]

i liked Bodemeister. What ever happened to him? how did the rest of his career play out?



Bodemeister was sold for $30 million into breeding, & the horse that beat him twice, I'll Have Another, was sold for $10 million.......I believe these numbers are correct, I could be wrong tho.

[Stoleitbreezing]

IHA was sold to Japan I believe as there was little interest in breeding him here in the states. I didn't have Bode in my stable mail so I'll have to a rely on the above posters recollection of his sale. He only had 6 starts and never raced again after the preakness.

[sammy the sage]

Give me 12/1 and I'll book Materiality doesn't EVEN run in the K.D....

:lol: :D

J.K. ing....we all know THAT would be illegal...

[SecretAgentMan]

Give me 12/1 and I'll book Materiality doesn't EVEN run in the K.D....

:lol: :D

J.K. ing....we all know THAT would be illegal...



Why do you think Materiality won't run in the KD?

[sammy the sage]

Why do you think Materiality won't run in the KD?

History...give ya clue...who trains 'em...what happens 50% of the time the week of the derby...esp. w/this trainer...

could be wrong...probably am wrong...but still...horse won't get my money...

[nads1420]

Dunkirk ran a 108 Beyer in the Florida Derby in 2009 as an unraced 2 year old... i think he is just coming around the far turn now


looking at old Derby PP's not many horses have run over 100 beyer up until the Derby and those that have really havent made that much noise in the Derby... I guess the beyer is pretty overrated at picking derby winners


except for 2004 jeez that was a fast crop of horses the most of the ran 100's and a lot more then once.. jeez

[BlueChip@DRF]

Another Social Inclusion?

[sbcaris]

Nads: You do not have your facts correct. You said, "Looking at old Derby PPs not many horses have run over 100 Beyers up to the Derby and those that have really have not made much noise in the Derby. I guess the Beyer figure is pretty much overrated at picking Derby winners."

If you checked each Derby carefully back to 2000 you would have noted that 8 of the last 15 Ky Derby winners achieved a Beyer figure of 103 or higher in their very last start before the run for the roses. Thats the majority of Derby winners over the last 15 years achieving more than a 100 Beyer fig in their last race before the Derby.

[nads1420]

thats true but only 3 in the last 10 years. Barbaro, Big Brown, and California Chrome.

Seems like early 2000's the beyers are crazy were the horses just faster or has the beyer system changed?

[BlueChip@DRF]

(82.6%)
19 of the last 23 Derby winners finished 1st or 2nd in their last race.

(74%)
17 of the last 23 Derby winners broke their maiden within their first 2 races.

The two stats above are my jumping off point for the win in the Derby. I will probably play a Pick-4 this time around.

Double wins prior to the Derby account for only 8 of the last 23 winners (34.7%); however, it has only occurred since 2000 and is actually 8 of 15 (53%). Last 3 years the Derby was won by horses who won in their last two starts.

[letswastemoney]

I'm no fan of Beyer, but speed figures are the most underrated factor in the Kentucky Derby.

This is the one race where everyone puts an insane amount of emphasis on pedigree, and I look at pedigree too but no more than any other race.

[Some_One]

Didn't Wild Syn get like a 120 in the Blue Grass way back in the days of the old Kee dirt rail superhighway? For me, when looking at international turf racing, using wet/soft races to handicap a firm turf race are terrible, the form never holds, the two are really different animals. And I feel that way about the Fla Derby given how deep/slow the course was, it's nothing like the course they will get at CD. The top 2 might be good, but I just think they'll be overbet because of their big numbers.

[SecretAgentMan]

Didn't Wild Syn get like a 120 in the Blue Grass way back in the days of the old Kee dirt rail superhighway? For me, when looking at international turf racing, using wet/soft races to handicap a firm turf race are terrible, the form never holds, the two are really different animals. And I feel that way about the Fla Derby given how deep/slow the course was, it's nothing like the course they will get at CD. The top 2 might be good, but I just think they'll be overbet because of their big numbers.


I always thought a horse running all winter on a deep slow track like GP would strengthen their legs/muscles, & once on the Churchill track, it would be like running on a cloud.

Like when a human runner runs on a sandy beach, then runs on a hard dirt or cement, they have an advantage, or maybe I'm thinking it all backwards.

[Secondbest]

http://www.drf.com/blogs/materiality-and-apollo

[CosmicWon]

Sinister Minister is who you're thinking of rather than Wild Syn. That was the heat Bluegrass Cat was supposed to win, and when he didn't, he became a robust overlay who finished 2nd in 06 KYD behind Barbaro at 30-1 to pay $28 to place and key a $293 $1 exacta.

I honestly think Materiality will be somewhat ignored because of the Apollo "curse" (shudder...nothing is worse than reputable journalists using "curse" as if it's a bonafied thing) and Carpe Diem, and suddenly becomes a lot more interesting lingering around 10-1+ than at his heretofore assumed like 6ish-1 odds.

Tencendur and One Lucky Dane are the two I'm looking at to bomb the exotics. The rest of these are too darn slow to even worry about.

Is Stanford running? He's quite stoutly bred, more than Mission Impazable at least.

The dam of Tencendur may be by Hennessy, but she's also a 1/2 sister to the dam of the Japanese hope Golden Barows (by Tapit) who ran 3rd in the UAE Derby a few weeks ago. I think there is more there than meets the eye.

And if he hits the board this weekend, The Truth or Else will go on to Derby and rates an interesting chance a la Steppenwolfer etc. TToE is cleverly bred in a way similar to Tonalist--brilliant sire balancing out the stamina of their Belmont-winning Broodmare Sire from the Pleasant Colony line.

Not saying any of those above wins the Derby, but they all have merits and talent which make them more valuable imho than many will give them credit for on Derby Day. Will absolutely be playing around in the Derby verticals this year.

[PaceMasterT]

Didn't Wild Syn get like a 120 in the Blue Grass way back in the days of the old Kee dirt rail superhighway? For me, when looking at international turf racing, using wet/soft races to handicap a firm turf race are terrible, the form never holds, the two are really different animals. And I feel that way about the Fla Derby given how deep/slow the course was, it's nothing like the course they will get at CD. The top 2 might be good, but I just think they'll be overbet because of their big numbers.

From my anecdotal experience, Keeneland is the track that gave to most wonky speed figures ever. Pre-artificial and artificial. I don't think anyone could figure a variant out on that track (changed race to race). Too early to tell on this new surface.

[f2tornado]

Tencendur - conduit mare Torpenhow in tail female
Stanford - conduit mare Altoviscar in tail female
The Truth or Else - conduit mare Doxa in tail female. Family 1x has found a lot of Derby winner's circles.

Certainly reasonable bomber plays. Horses with conduit mare in tail female have fared well in the Derby.

I will let the Apollo 0-58 "curse" beat me. It goes along well with the Pletcher 1-41 "near-curse". Materiality doesn't fit most of my angles anyway. I think I will skip Carpe Diem too. He's got the Storm Cat something like 0-44 "curse" going against him.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Tencendur - conduit mare Torpenhow in tail female
Stanford - conduit mare Altoviscar in tail female
The Truth or Else - conduit mare Doxa in tail female. Family 1x has found a lot of Derby winner's circles.

Certainly reasonable bomber plays. Horses with conduit mare in tail female have fared well in the Derby.

I will let the Apollo 0-58 "curse" beat me. It goes along well with the Pletcher 1-41 "near-curse". Materiality doesn't fit most of my angles anyway. I think I will skip Carpe Diem too. He's got the Storm Cat something like 0-44 "curse" going against him.

Family 23-b has been dominant.

[f2tornado]

Family 23-b has been dominant.

The only reason I'd consider a wager on Carpe Diem otherwise Storm Cat horses and Pletcher have an abysmal record in the Derby. Bolo is another 23-b but won't have the points after Saturday without defections.

[RacingFan1992]

Materiality might win the Kentucky Derby but he will never win the Triple Crown. Every horse who won the Triple Crown started at two from Seattle Slew with 3 in 1976 to Whirlaway with 16 in 1940. I am not sure who I want for the Derby.

[f2tornado]

Every Triple Crown winner had at least one non-Phalaris side too. Those seem to gradually be going extinct.

[dilanesp]

It's been a very long time since Apollo .For me until a horse does it its a bet against

Yeah, but for most of those years, the average Derby starter had at least 10 starts and a fair number of them had over 20. Nowadays, the vast majority of Derby starters have less than 7.

In fields full of well-prepared, experienced horses, it makes sense that you would want to see 2 year old experience. Indeed, back in the day, appearing on the Experimental Free Handicap was a must, i.e., you had to be a very good, stakes caliber 2 year old to win the Derby. But now that it's 20 horses that are totally unprepared, with the governing philosophy being do well enough in one prep race to qualify and then run in the Derby, the horses without 2 year old experience are at no disadvantage at all, which is why Bodemeister and Curlin almost won.

Put another way, I'll Have Another gets his injury 5 weeks earlier and Bodemeister DOES win. We are talking about a HIGHLY contingent "statistic" here.

[dilanesp]

Materiality might win the Kentucky Derby but he will never win the Triple Crown. Every horse who won the Triple Crown started at two from Seattle Slew with 3 in 1976 to Whirlaway with 16 in 1940. I am not sure who I want for the Derby.

Well, most of your Triple Crown winners had tons of starts before the Derby, and made their last start 3 weeks before the Derby or less. And most of them ran in Derbies with very few starters. I think Seattle Slew was the only one who had a career somewhat similar to Derby starters now.

It's very hard to win the Triple Crown, period (there were no winners from 1949 to 1972), but I don't think you should apply some artificial constraint based on what happened in the past over a small sample. Real Quiet was a nose away from the Triple Crown under modern conditions. If Victory Gallop hits a little traffic in the Belmont, he wins it.

[RacingFan1992]

My theory is what they lack in one area they made up for in another. War Admiral drew the number 1 post in a 20 horse field. BIG DISADVANTAGE but he overcame it with blinding speed cause noone could catch him as well as his injury he gave himself in the Belmont. Seattle Slew only raced 3 times at 2 and was given a horrible start in the Derby but he barged his way through an opening. He ran in the slop which some horses dont like for the Belmont but it was his home track. The pace was slow and he just blew them away but on the other hand Funny Cide ran at Belmont as a two year old but he went to the lead while running on a dead rail and was pressed the whole time. He had nothing left when challenged cause the mud, being pressed, and sending zapped him. He couldn't make up for those factors. People don't realize a series of events cause the downfall of a Triple Crown contender.

[nads1420]

Family 23-b has been dominant.

please excuse my ignorance but can someone explain this 23-b family thing to me