Florida Derby

[MNslappy]

Here are the PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=GP&race=14&param1=3360&param2=2240&param3=2002910)

[MNslappy]

Besides the obvious three contenders, the Romans trained Team Valor horse Indianaughty is kind of interesting to me.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not a big fan of the race unless I can get :7: Materiality at 4/1 or better, which won't happen.

Might try to create some exotics with the :3: and :5: involved to spice it up.

[FrankieFigs]

I'm high on Ami's Flatter. Looking for more improvement 2nd blinkers and Lasix.

[clemkadiddle]

I think Jack Trip has a legitimate shot.

[SecretAgentMan]

Besides the obvious three contenders, the Romans trained Team Valor horse Indianaughty is kind of interesting to me.



I will be shocked if one of the obvious 3 don't win......good luck with your plays.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

I will be shocked if one of the obvious 3 don't win......good luck with your plays.

My upset play here is the :1:. As far as I am concerned he lost to the most impressive 3yo going Carpe Diem in last. He will need a dream trip.

Good Luck

[f2tornado]

I mostly bet :7::9:/:7::9:/:1::4:. These four are the class of the field but there's always room for something to screw up the exotic plays. Ami has a chance here but I'm only using as a saver wager in the top and middle of small exotics plays.

[letswastemoney]

Pretty good race. I wrote a recap on it.

Florida Derby results analysis (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/11973/materiality-spectacular-in-florida-derby-win-over-upstart.html)

In the article, I have an explanation on how to use a visual check to determine whether a race was fast or not. When the field is spread thin, it's a sign the final time was quick (even if it wasn't quick on raw time).

[SecretAgentMan]

Pretty good race. I wrote a recap on it.

Florida Derby results analysis (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/11973/materiality-spectacular-in-florida-derby-win-over-upstart.html)

In the article, I have an explanation on how to use a visual check to determine whether a race was fast or not. When the field is spread thin, it's a sign the final time was quick (even if it wasn't quick on raw time).


Nice writeup & I agree, these raw tines at GP are very misleading. Something was definitely done to the track to make it so dull & slow.

[sbcaris]

If the track variant was approximately a 30 for the Fla Derby and Materiality runs 5 seconds over the track record which is a variant of 25 why does he get such an enormous Beyer figure of 110?

[f2tornado]

The track may have been slow but the leaders in the FL Derby ran a mile about the same time as Commissioner's race and only 1.7 seconds faster than the maidens in the 9th. I have a hard time getting excited about it.

[SecretAgentMan]

If the track variant was approximately a 30 for the Fla Derby and Materiality runs 5 seconds over the track record which is a variant of 25 why does he get such an enormous Beyer figure of 110?


Stan, you've been around for a while, why do you think Materiality received a 110? And Upstart a 108?

We all know something isn't right about the Gulfstream track, its way off, like running in quicksand.

The advantage I see of horses running on deep, dull tracks like Gulfstream is like a human running on a sandy beach.......it makes your legs stronger & & you get fit better, & that translates to an easier run at Churchill possibly.

I'm not saying these horses will win the KD, because we still have 4 big preps ahead.......I'm.waiting for a horse to pop up & stand out.

[Valuist]

I see that Violette was upset at the GP stewards for rushing to make the result official. He wanted Ortiz to claim foul against JRV but the result was already official.

[SecretAgentMan]

I see that Violette was upset at the GP stewards for rushing to make the result official. He wanted Ortiz to claim foul against JRV but the result was already official.


Only reason I would be pissed at the stewards is they took down Upstart 2 races back for the exact thing Materiality did to Upstart yesterday......& why did the stewards make the race official do quickly?

They wanted Pletchers Materiality in the KD, bottom line........so here's Pletcher again with a possibility of 4 horses in the KD, & Baffert with 2 or 3.

[Valuist]

Only reason I would be pissed at the stewards is they took down Upstart 2 races back for the exact thing Materiality did to Upstart yesterday......& why did the stewards make the race official do quickly?

They wanted Pletchers Materiality in the KD, bottom line........so here's Pletcher again with a possibility of 4 horses in the KD, & Baffert with 2 or 3.

If there was any agenda, I think it had nothing to do with the horse. It was the last race on a 14 race card, and they were in a hurry to get home.

[iceknight]

If there was any agenda, I think it had nothing to do with the horse. It was the last race on a 14 race card, and they were in a hurry to get home. This race is the grand finale and not just any other 'last race'. The move outward by Materiality definitely hurt upstart's momentum.
Discl: I had no bets in the race, no pick 4 bets nothing playing in that card. It was kinda ridiculous they made it official so fast. Stewards should be doing their job properly instead of just being in a rush to go home :lol:

[sbcaris]

Secret Agent Man: The Daily Racing Form listed Materiality's Beyer fig as a 110 which will probably turn out to be the highest or second highest Beyer fig of any of the 9 furlong prep races that will be run this year. Thats my guess. But how do you give a horse a 110 when it runs the 9 furlongs in 1:52?

[Valuist]

This race is the grand finale and not just any other 'last race'. The move outward by Materiality definitely hurt upstart's momentum.
Discl: I had no bets in the race, no pick 4 bets nothing playing in that card. It was kinda ridiculous they made it official so fast. Stewards should be doing their job properly instead of just being in a rush to go home :lol:

I wasn't trying to justify it, although I was alive to Materiality in the P4 and not Upstart. I was expecting at least a foul claim. Didn't see the head on, but I doubt it was as serious as what Upstart did several weeks ago.

[Valuist]

Secret Agent Man: The Daily Racing Form listed Materiality's Beyer fig as a 110 which will probably turn out to be the highest or second highest Beyer fig of any of the 9 furlong prep races that will be run this year. Thats my guess. But how do you give a horse a 110 when it runs the 9 furlongs in 1:52?

The whole point of speed figures is to measure the raw time against the speed of the surface. That gives you an idea of how slow the GP track was playing.

[Valuist]

Just watched the head on replay. Was there enough for a foul claim? Maybe, but almost certainly the decision wouldn't have been overturned. The apparent trouble looks worse in the pan shot. In the head on, you see Ortiz has Upstart right on top of Materiality; almost in the same path. An odd place if you want to pass the leader. Materiality comes out ever so slightly; not even half a path. The GP stewards may have had a few questionable calls at the meet, but letting this one stand was the right call.

[ArlJim78]

It did not warrant a disqualification (minor bump) but should have been an inquiry to be sure. Also the rush to go official is odd when the rider wanted to object.

[Grits]

Arl.Jim, a long day beginning with 1st post at noon, and this one, the finale, the 14th race at almost 7pm?

This may have played a part, however, it's no excuse.

[ArlJim78]

Well I seriously hope they didn't use that excuse, it was a long day and getting late. They're the ones who carded 14 races with the premier race last.

[Tom]

It's not like they were doing real work, like riding, or walking horses, or, you know stuff that makes you sweat.

[raybo]

I was surprised that there wasn't an inquiry. There was certainly logic for one. But, watching the videos I doubt seriously that a DQ would have been issued. I liked Materiality as the most likely to win at odds higher than the favorite, so was not upset about the non-inquiry, only surprised. My base rankings were 9 7 1 8 6 4 (the 4 had a weak distance rating in my program thus the lower ranking.).

[Redboard]

Hard to fathom what to make out of this race. Materiality and Upstart battled for the lead the entire race and yet if the track was indeed deep and slow usually that would sets things up for a closers, like Itsaknockout or Mypointexactly, who didn’t fire.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm trying to figure out if Upstart will regress in the KD after battling Materiality most of the race......I want to hear what Violette says from here on out. I don't think he had Upstart fully cranked for the Florida derby.

Even if he regresses, he can still win the KD with a 104-105 beyer.......

I would have liked to have seen Upstart a few lengths back & close on Materiality instead of battling him most of the way. Was the plan to have Upstart as close to Materiality as possible & to dig down deep into that quicksand dirt at GP & work this horses legs out?

Like others have mentioned, a strange running of races at GP this past winter......putting us in a place we're unfamiliar with & trying to cap the horses coming out of these races.