sbcaris
03-27-2015, 11:36 AM
Any horse that gets into the Derby gate can win the roses.
Seriously, I will not toss any runner at this point. 21 of the 23 runners on the Ky Derby future Pool 4 list can win the roses if they put in a fast final finish in a 9 furlong major prep race. My basic win contenders will come from those fast finishers. 69% winners over the last 42 years qualified on this angle. However, this hot angle also gets 31% losers so its not a be-all end-all method.
Any numerical method used on these flesh and blood creatures has drawbacks. Hopefully, the drawback won't occur this year.
Seriously, I will not toss any runner at this point who is still on the Derby trail and needs to run one more time. I will wait to see that next effort. Overnight they mature and develop into stars (Remember Charismatic who was basically a no play until he runs big in the Lexington Stakes). My problem then was I no play him either and at 60 dollars for 2 bucks he sure was an overlay.
Seriously, I will not toss any runner at this point. 21 of the 23 runners on the Ky Derby future Pool 4 list can win the roses if they put in a fast final finish in a 9 furlong major prep race. My basic win contenders will come from those fast finishers. 69% winners over the last 42 years qualified on this angle. However, this hot angle also gets 31% losers so its not a be-all end-all method.
Any numerical method used on these flesh and blood creatures has drawbacks. Hopefully, the drawback won't occur this year.
Seriously, I will not toss any runner at this point who is still on the Derby trail and needs to run one more time. I will wait to see that next effort. Overnight they mature and develop into stars (Remember Charismatic who was basically a no play until he runs big in the Lexington Stakes). My problem then was I no play him either and at 60 dollars for 2 bucks he sure was an overlay.