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OCF
03-23-2015, 02:50 PM
From 2004 to 2014 there were 22 KD starters whose last prep was the Wood. There were no such KD starters in 2011. None of the Wood starters finished in the KD top 3.

That's 22 chances at 30 spots and a big fat bagel.

The bigger money burners:

2014 - Wicked Strong, 2nd betting choice, finished 4th
2013 - Verrazano, 4th betting choice, finished off the board
2012 - Gemologist, 3rd betting choice, finished off the board
2007 - Nobiz Like Shobiz, 4th betting choice, finished off the board
2005 - Bellamy Road, favorite, finished off the board
2004 - Tapit, 3rd betting choice, finished off the board

Several exceptions:

2013 - Normandy Invasion, 5th betting choice, finished 4th (I'm reaching)
2008 - Tale of Ekati, 14th betting choice, finished 4th
2006 - Jazil, 10th betting choice, finished 4th

Is it just a relatively small sample size and one of those *&%$#$^^&!! losing streaks and we should expect reversion to the mean? After all there were four 4th place finishers in ten years.

Or has something fundamentally changed?

SecretAgentMan
03-23-2015, 03:27 PM
Yeah, I don't know what going on in NY. I stated this last year, & the streak continues. Is it the cold weather that's keeping horses from training the way they should? Doubt that because trainers before this streak of nothingness were doing okay from the Wood.

Funny Cide & Empire Maker in 2003

Monarchos & Congaree in 2001

Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000

Captain Bodgit in 1997


Good horses, but not much coming out of the Wood......this year we will have a dew good ones, but not great.

DJofSD
03-23-2015, 04:27 PM
When did the NYRA allow LASIX?

reckless
03-23-2015, 04:39 PM
When did the NYRA allow LASIX?

September 1995, Belmont Fall meeting.

DJofSD
03-23-2015, 04:42 PM
So, the list from OCF are crops from after LASIX was allowed?

sbcaris
03-23-2015, 05:22 PM
In my opinion lasix has nothing to do with the results above. I believe it was just a statistical aberration.

DRIVEWAY
03-23-2015, 05:31 PM
When was the Florida Derby pushed back? This affects the Wood field in a negative way.

In the past horses ran in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial.

OCF
03-23-2015, 05:59 PM
The last 11 years worth of winning KD trainers included a fair number of NYRA regulars - McGaughey, Motion, Pletcher, Dutrow, Servis - and I'd be surprised if there weren't many more among the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. Maybe the NYRA trainers have started taking their better KD prospects elsewhere for the winter and early spring?

It sure seems like many of the leading NYRA jockeys are also heading elsewhere during that time.

I couldn't help noticing that the start of the losing streak almost coincides with the opening of the renovated Gulfstream in 2006.

I DO NOT intend for this to be an Aqueduct- or NYRA-bashing post, but maybe the losing streak has something to do with a general decline at Aqueduct?

Also - a correction to my first post - it's been 25 Wood/KD starters over the 10 years instead of 22.

SecretAgentMan
03-23-2015, 06:04 PM
The last 11 years worth of winning KD trainers included a fair number of NYRA regulars - McGaughey, Motion, Pletcher, Dutrow, Servis - and I'd be surprised if there weren't many more among the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. Maybe the NYRA trainers have started taking their better KD prospects elsewhere for the winter and early spring?

It sure seems like many of the leading NYRA jockeys are also heading elsewhere during that time.

I couldn't help noticing that the start of the losing streak almost coincides with the opening of the renovated Gulfstream in 2006.

I DO NOT intend for this to be an Aqueduct- or NYRA-bashing post, but maybe the losing streak has something to do with a general decline at Aqueduct?



Good observation OCF.......

Tall One
03-23-2015, 08:32 PM
When was the Florida Derby pushed back? This affects the Wood field in a negative way.

In the past horses ran in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial.


I think this has more to do with it than the "better" jocks wintering in Miami, which they've done for years. If those guys are wanted up north, they'll go. But with the Ortiz brothers, Franco, Cornelio Velasquez, Alvarado, Cruz, the apprentice Rodriguez, Chucky Lopez, and now Carmouche in there, AQU Winter is pretty solid. IMO.

salty
03-24-2015, 01:59 AM
Don't forget that in 2009 I Want Revenge was supposed to be the Derby favorite but was then scratched the day of. The very next year 2010 Ekendereya crushed the wood then was supposed to be the derby favorite and also scratched from the derby.

Those are just instances that i specifically remember since i have been betting horses.

minethatbird08
03-24-2015, 11:10 AM
Don't forget that in 2009 I Want Revenge was supposed to be the Derby favorite but was then scratched the day of. The very next year 2010 Ekendereya crushed the wood then was supposed to be the derby favorite and also scratched from the derby.

Those are just instances that i specifically remember since i have been betting horses.


Also, Toby's Corner won the Wood and had to scratch. He wouldn't have been a favorite but was looking like a "wise guy" type pick before he had to withdraw/scratch.

sbcaris
03-24-2015, 11:53 AM
Since 2004 I counted 25 Ky Derby starters that last raced in the Wood Memorial. Using my final fraction indicator as a qualifying angle and considering all other starters as non contenders I came up with the following results:

The Only years in which a true contender from the Wood raced in the Derby were as follows: I defined a true contender as one that qualified on my final fraction indicator:


2014-Wicked Strong
2013-Normandy Invasion, Verazzano and Vyjack
2012-Alpha
2011-None
2010-None
2009-West Side Bernie
2008-None
2007-None
2006-Jazil
2005-Bellamy Road
2004-Master David and Tapit

In summary- there were only 7 years in which a true contender ran in the Derby and the total number of true contenders was 10 (Not all 25 starters were true contenders).

So, instead of looking a the last 10 years one only need look at the last 7 years as years when a true contender raced in the Derby from the Wood Memorial. The last 10 contenders failed to hit the board. Once again, I think it is just a statistical aberration.

DJofSD
03-24-2015, 11:56 AM
It could very well be a statistical quirk.

But not knowing how to do statistical investigations, I wonder, what are the odds of such an event occurring?

sbcaris
03-24-2015, 11:56 AM
Error in Math----The above data constitutes an 11 year period, NOT a 10 year period as I stated.
Its the old failure to count properly trick- 2004 thru 2014 is 11 years not 10.

minethatbird08
03-24-2015, 04:16 PM
Since 2004 I counted 25 Ky Derby starters that last raced in the Wood Memorial. Using my final fraction indicator as a qualifying angle and considering all other starters as non contenders I came up with the following results:

The Only years in which a true contender from the Wood raced in the Derby were as follows: I defined a true contender as one that qualified on my final fraction indicator:


2014-Wicked Strong
2013-Normandy Invasion, Verazzano and Vyjack
2012-Alpha
2011-None
2010-None
2009-West Side Bernie
2008-None
2007-None
2006-Jazil
2005-Bellamy Road
2004-Master David and Tapit

In summary- there were only 7 years in which a true contender ran in the Derby and the total number of true contenders was 10 (Not all 25 starters were true contenders).

So, instead of looking a the last 10 years one only need look at the last 7 years as years when a true contender raced in the Derby from the Wood Memorial. The last 10 contenders failed to hit the board. Once again, I think it is just a statistical aberration.


Your "true contenders" metric just applies for winning the derby though. Correct? If so you can't use it to exclude all the other horses that had a chance to land in the top 3.

OCF
03-24-2015, 05:04 PM
Since 2004 I counted 25 Ky Derby starters that last raced in the Wood Memorial. Using my final fraction indicator as a qualifying angle and considering all other starters as non contenders I came up with the following results:

The Only years in which a true contender from the Wood raced in the Derby were as follows: I defined a true contender as one that qualified on my final fraction indicator:


2014-Wicked Strong
2013-Normandy Invasion, Verazzano and Vyjack
2012-Alpha
2011-None
2010-None
2009-West Side Bernie
2008-None
2007-None
2006-Jazil
2005-Bellamy Road
2004-Master David and Tapit

In summary- there were only 7 years in which a true contender ran in the Derby and the total number of true contenders was 10 (Not all 25 starters were true contenders).

So, instead of looking a the last 10 years one only need look at the last 7 years as years when a true contender raced in the Derby from the Wood Memorial. The last 10 contenders failed to hit the board. Once again, I think it is just a statistical aberration.

As I've posted before, I have high regard for your work.

For the purposes of this discussion we have the benefit of hindsight. In hindsight would you call Mine That Bird a true contender in 2009? I'm pretty sure MTB was not a true contender per your angle, and that there were an appreciable number more like him, i.e. horses that finished in the top 3 in the KD between 2004 and 2014 that your angle did not identify as true contenders.

The point is an argument based on your angle identifying the true contenders is flawed, IMHO.

I'm still open to the results in 10 of the last 11 years being explainable as a
statistical aberration, a losing streak that is more probable than what we might intuit.

I really like your angle - I just don't think it has much application to this question.

SecretAgentMan
03-24-2015, 05:29 PM
As I've posted before, I have high regard for your work.

For the purposes of this discussion we have the benefit of hindsight. In hindsight would you call Mine That Bird a true contender in 2009? I'm pretty sure MTB was not a true contender per your angle, and that there were an appreciable number more like him, i.e. horses that finished in the top 3 in the KD between 2004 and 2014 that your angle did not identify as true contenders.

The point is an argument based on your angle identifying the true contenders is flawed, IMHO.

I'm still open to the results in 10 of the last 11 years being explainable as a
statistical aberration, a losing streak that is more probable than what we might intuit.

I really like your angle - I just don't think it has much application to this question.


I agree that being a true contender or not shouldn't matter in the case of this trend going strong for 11 years. You either ran in the Wood or not......whether the horse qualifies under a certain angle is besides the point IMO.....

Tom
03-24-2015, 06:12 PM
Didn't two derby favs win the Wood and then get scratched?
I Want Revenge and Escondraya (?)

SecretAgentMan
03-24-2015, 07:09 PM
Didn't two derby favs win the Wood and then get scratched?
I Want Revenge and Escondraya (?)



In 2009 for I Want Revenge, but can't remember Eskas year. I thought IWR had a great chance of winning that derby, but we never got the chance to find out.

sbcaris
03-24-2015, 07:40 PM
Secret Agent Man: You said my angle on final fractions is flawed because of horses that hit the board and did not qualify on it. That fact does not make it a flawed angle. How do you account for its success over the last 42 years in the win position of the Derby. In that time frame it has selected 29 winners. Therefore it has gotten 69% winners from only 30% of the starters (See my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown where I delineate the last 42 years of qualifiers and their results. That translates into an impact value of 2.30 or one can say that these types win the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation. In addition the ROI for winning the Derby with this angle is a strong 40% profit on one's investment.

SecretAgentMan
03-24-2015, 08:11 PM
Secret Agent Man: You said my angle on final fractions is flawed because of horses that hit the board and did not qualify on it. That fact does not make it a flawed angle. How do you account for its success over the last 42 years in the win position of the Derby. In that time frame it has selected 29 winners. Therefore it has gotten 69% winners from only 30% of the starters (See my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown where I delineate the last 42 years of qualifiers and their results. That translates into an impact value of 2.30 or one can say that these types win the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation. In addition the ROI for winning the Derby with this angle is a strong 40% profit on one's investment.



I never stated your angle was flawed, please go above & read what I wrote. I stated that you're basically dissecting a trend to fit your needs.
I for one like your angle & information you bring to this forum......

OCF
03-24-2015, 08:54 PM
Secret Agent Man: You said my angle on final fractions is flawed because of horses that hit the board and did not qualify on it. That fact does not make it a flawed angle. How do you account for its success over the last 42 years in the win position of the Derby. In that time frame it has selected 29 winners. Therefore it has gotten 69% winners from only 30% of the starters (See my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown where I delineate the last 42 years of qualifiers and their results. That translates into an impact value of 2.30 or one can say that these types win the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation. In addition the ROI for winning the Derby with this angle is a strong 40% profit on one's investment.

Maybe you meant me since I was the one that used the word "flawed"?

I didn't say, and don't think, your angle is flawed - as I said, I actually like your angle.

What I said is that an argument (and here I should have added something like "for the recent Wood results being a statistical aberration") based on your angle is flawed.

Big difference there.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-24-2015, 09:03 PM
Didn't two derby favs win the Wood and then get scratched?
I Want Revenge and Escondraya (?)

Eskendereya was a monster. Won the Fountain of Youth by 8 1/2 lenghts and then followed it up with a 9 3/4 length romp in the Wood. He was a serious Triple Crown threat.

He is starting to juice out some nice colts now as well. Keep note of his name as a sire in future races.

sbcaris
03-24-2015, 09:03 PM
Sorry about that. It was OCF that said my angle is flawed in regard to the argument-whether or not the last 25 starters in the Derby that ran in the Wood and all ran out of the money was a statistical aberration or had an actual cause.

My angle is strong with regard to winners in the Derby. As far as runners that finish in the second and third place it is still pretty good but not as good as it is in the win position. Since 2000 it has selected 10 winners, 5 second place finishers and 5 third place finishers. In the win position it is powerful but in the place and show positions of the Derby it just gets its expected share of place and show finishers.

That is why I believe it is better to key one of the qualifiers on my angle with a group of horses underneath in the trifecta and superfecta pools of the Derby.

You said I was dissecting a trend to fit my needs. I disagree. I was just trying to find an explanation as to why these Wood Memorial starters did not hit the board in the Derby. I believe that most of the horses that have run in the Wood over the last 10 years were not true contenders to begin with. Most of these out of the money finishers did not look like they had much going for them at all. Horses like--Atomic Rain, Awesome Act, Jackson Bend, Going Wild, Deputy Glitters, Keyed Entry, Nobiz Like Showbiz, Anak Nakal, Tale of Ekati, Uncle Sigh, Samraat and a few others were in my opinion NONContenders in their Derbies and it was to be expected that they would finish out of the money.

I will grant you that some looked pretty good like: Tapit, West Side Bernie, Normandy Invasion, Alpha and Wicked Strong to name a few. And they all ran out of the money. Then again, the chances of any given horse running in the Money in the Derby is only 15% (3 positions out of 20 starters on the average equals 15%). I believe that the 25 that ran out of the money in the last 10 years was a statistical aberration. I could be wrong about this. My wife says I am wrong all the time. According to her I have been wrong for 47 years so what are the chances that I am right regarding the above analysis. I am a big fat bagel or 0 for 47 according to her analysis.

nads1420
03-24-2015, 09:06 PM
I think Far From Over is a real contender

OCF
03-24-2015, 09:15 PM
I think Far From Over is a real contender

Hi Nads and welcome to PA. Great handle BTW.

Funny, I've also been wondering if FFO might be the one to break the Wood's streak.

OCF
03-24-2015, 09:32 PM
Sorry about that. It was OCF that said my angle is flawed in regard to the argument-whether or not the last 25 starters in the Derby that ran in the Wood and all ran out of the money was a statistical aberration or had an actual cause.

My angle is strong with regard to winners in the Derby. As far as runners that finish in the second and third place it is still pretty good but not as good as it is in the win position. Since 2000 it has selected 10 winners, 5 second place finishers and 5 third place finishers. In the win position it is powerful but in the place and show positions of the Derby it just gets its expected share of place and show finishers.

That is why I believe it is better to key one of the qualifiers on my angle with a group of horses underneath in the trifecta and superfecta pools of the Derby.

You said I was dissecting a trend to fit my needs. I disagree. I was just trying to find an explanation as to why these Wood Memorial starters did not hit the board in the Derby. I believe that most of the horses that have run in the Wood over the last 10 years were not true contenders to begin with. Most of these out of the money finishers did not look like they had much going for them at all. Horses like--Atomic Rain, Awesome Act, Jackson Bend, Going Wild, Deputy Glitters, Keyed Entry, Nobiz Like Showbiz, Anak Nakal, Tale of Ekati, Uncle Sigh, Samraat and a few others were in my opinion NONContenders in their Derbies and it was to be expected that they would finish out of the money.

I will grant you that some looked pretty good like: Tapit, West Side Bernie, Normandy Invasion, Alpha and Wicked Strong to name a few. And they all ran out of the money. Then again, the chances of any given horse running in the Money in the Derby is only 15% (3 positions out of 20 starters on the average equals 15%). I believe that the 25 that ran out of the money in the last 10 years was a statistical aberration. I could be wrong about this. My wife says I am wrong all the time. According to her I have been wrong for 47 years so what are the chances that I am right regarding the above analysis. I am a big fat bagel or 0 for 47 according to her analysis.

Thanks for what seems to be a more understanding reply.

I've gotta say that saying "the chances of any given horse running in the Money in the Derby is only 15%" seems to contradict the premise that the contenders are the only ones that should be considered.

Let me try to approach this differently. Let's agree, for the sake of discussion, to your definition of a true contender as one qualifying by your angle. Why then, has the Wood Memorial only sent seven true contenders to the KD over the past 11 years? That does not seem like many for what has generally been considered to be an important prep race.

SecretAgentMan
03-24-2015, 09:35 PM
No problem sbcaris, & as far as wives/gf's, most of them hate the fact that we gamble, or invest so much time into horse racing/sports betting.

As for this years Wood, I believe El Kabeir will be strongly challenged by Far from Over. I have Far from Over running a good Belmont Stakes race & possibly winning, he's bred to run long. I'm thinking he gets into the KD, runs mediocre, skips the Preakness & wins the Belmont, as long as he stays healthy.

I'm ready to watch the next 2 Saturdays of racing.

nads1420
03-24-2015, 09:45 PM
Hi Nads and welcome to PA. Great handle BTW.

Funny, I've also been wondering if FFO might be the one to break the Wood's streak.



seems like a pretty solid closer... maybe an Ice Box type place finish in the Derby at a decent price

OCF
03-24-2015, 09:57 PM
seems like a pretty solid closer... maybe an Ice Box type place finish in the Derby at a decent price

Back in February, I think it was the Withers, he cost me the late Pick 4 when he went flying by El Kabeir out of nowhere in the last 16th. He's been on my mind ever since.

I've haven't totally given up on El Kabeir even though that seems to be the consensus. He appears very game to me, and rated and closed well to win in his next out. He might gut out 3rd or 4th in the KD if he starts.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-24-2015, 10:09 PM
Back in February, I think it was the Withers, he cost me the late Pick 4 when he went flying by El Kabeir out of nowhere in the last 16th. He's been on my mind ever since.

I've haven't totally given up on El Kabeir even though that seems to be the consensus. He appears very game to me, and rated and closed well to win in his next out. He might gut out 3rd or 4th in the KD if he starts.

Hey now..., Far From Over romped home for me in my eye! :jump::D

I see El Kabeir as what I would call "speed challenged". He absolutely has to be near the lead in a race like the Kentucky Derby to have any chance because there is no way in Hades he is passing anybody of note late.

Especially the ones that will be rolling after a mile.

In fact, I fully believe he'll be a very large part of a hectic pace in the Derby. I'd be willing to place a wager on him finishing dead last.

OCF
03-24-2015, 10:16 PM
Hey now..., Far From Over romped home for me in my eye! :jump::D

I see El Kabeir as what I would call "speed challenged". He absolutely has to be near the lead in a race like the Kentucky Derby to have any chance because there is no way in Hades he is passing anybody of note late.

Especially the ones that will be rolling after a mile.

In fact, I fully believe he'll be a very large part of a hectic pace in the Derby. I'd be willing to place a wager on him finishing dead last.

I guess I can't disagree. I'm probably in danger of throwing good money after bad, better to realize it now before its too late.

sbcaris
03-24-2015, 10:20 PM
OCF: If all the horses in the Derby had equal chances of running in the money then any given horse would have a 15% chance of running in the money. And we know all things are not equal, so my statement was certainly too hasty of a remark.

Over the last 42 years qualifiers on my final fraction indicator have a 69% chance of winning the roses (29 of 42). These are the only runners I consider in the win position of the Derby and on the average they comprise 6 runners per year. I do not consider the other 31% of the starters as win contenders and yet we know they win the roses 31% of the last 42 years. There will always be exceptions to any method one develops.

You said that the Wood should produce more than 7 contenders in the last 10 years because it is an important prep. Not necessarily, I checked the years 1995- 2000 and on the average the Wood only sends around 1 contender per year to the Derby assuming that a contender is a runner than qualifies on my final fraction indicator.

OCF
03-24-2015, 10:43 PM
OCF: If all the horses in the Derby had equal chances of running in the money then any given horse would have a 15% chance of running in the money. And we know all things are not equal, so my statement was certainly too hasty of a remark.

Over the last 42 years qualifiers on my final fraction indicator have a 69% chance of winning the roses (29 of 42). These are the only runners I consider in the win position of the Derby and on the average they comprise 6 runners per year. I do not consider the other 31% of the starters as win contenders and yet we know they win the roses 31% of the last 42 years. There will always be exceptions to any method one develops.

You said that the Wood should produce more than 7 contenders in the last 10 years because it is an important prep. Not necessarily, I checked the years 1995- 2000 and on the average the Wood only sends around 1 contender per year to the Derby assuming that a contender is a runner than qualifies on my final fraction indicator.

It was 7 contenders in 11 years, not 10 years. I have a hard time calling that close to around 1 per year.

Maybe its time to grant you the last word and then agree to disagree?

Tall One
03-24-2015, 10:47 PM
Hey now..., Far From Over romped home for me in my eye! :jump::D

I see El Kabeir as what I would call "speed challenged". He absolutely has to be near the lead in a race like the Kentucky Derby to have any chance because there is no way in Hades he is passing anybody of note late.

Especially the ones that will be rolling after a mile.

In fact, I fully believe he'll be a very large part of a hectic pace in the Derby. I'd be willing to place a wager on him finishing dead last.


Speed challenged is a good word for it, and, I still question how far he can go.

FFO did indeed run a big race that day, Husker...wasn't just your eyes. Things go his way in the Derby, I think he can be right there.

Lemon Drop Husker
03-25-2015, 12:37 AM
Speed challenged is a good word for it, and, I still question how far he can go.

FFO did indeed run a big race that day, Husker...wasn't just your eyes. Things go his way in the Derby, I think he can be right there.

No more cursing our horse.

Silence till Derby Day. :cool:

ReplayRandall
03-25-2015, 04:30 PM
I've been doing some more research into my own question and have come with several possible contributing factors:

1. I went back 30 years and found the following:

A. From 1985 to 1993 the WM was held 2 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 1 second and 1 third in the KD during that time period.

B. From 1994 to 2004 the WM was held 3 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 4 firsts, 2 seconds and 1 thirds in the KD during that time period.

C. From 2005 to 2014 the WM was held 4 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 0 seconds and 0 thirds in the KD during that time period.
Conversely, find what Derby prep picked up the slack of winners that the WM left behind in the last 10 years... ;)

sbcaris
03-25-2015, 04:32 PM
OCF: Do you conclude anything from the three time frames and results you stated about the Wood Memorial above?

SecretAgentMan
03-25-2015, 04:40 PM
I would think the 4 weeks between the Wood & KD would be just right for the trainers to get their horses ready......instead, the 3 weeks between those races gave us the better results, doesn't make much sense to me as to why only a 3 week layoff would offer a better result. Maybe someone sees something I don't.

OCF
03-25-2015, 04:42 PM
I accidentally posted that post before it was done, it was supposed to look like this:

I've been doing some more research into my own question and have come up with several possible contributing factors:

1. I went back 30 years and found the following:

A. From 1985 to 1993 the WM was held 2 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 1 second and 1 third in the KD during that time period.

B. From 1994 to 2004 the WM was held 3 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 4 firsts, 2 seconds and 1 thirds in the KD during that time period.

C. From 2005 to 2014 the WM was held 4 weeks before the KD. Horses who prepped last in the WM tallied 0 firsts, 0 seconds and 0 thirds in the KD during that time period.

My guess is that during that 1994 to 2004 time period the timing of the WM was in a sweet spot in relation to the timing of the other preps, a sweet spot that it was not in before or since.

2. In 2010 the Louisiana Derby switched from 8.5 to 9 furlongs. In the 25 years before that no horse that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the KD prepped last in the LD. In the ensuing 5 years the corresponding tally was 2 seconds and 2 thirds.

It looks like the LD distance change has made the LD a viable option for KD preppers. While I wouldn't go so far as to say horses that before would have prepped in the WM are now prepping in the LD, it does seem possible that having another viable option has diluted the WM.

OCF
03-25-2015, 04:49 PM
Conversely, find what Derby prep picked up the slack of winners that the WM left behind in the last 10 years... ;)

The Lousiana Derby, due to the distance change from 8.5 to 9 furlongs in 2010. Perhaps that's the reason behind your ;) ?

I think that goes a long way towards accounting for at least the last 5 years.

OCF
03-25-2015, 04:50 PM
OCF: Do you conclude anything from the three time frames and results you stated about the Wood Memorial above?

Please see amended post, i.e. #41.

ReplayRandall
03-25-2015, 04:51 PM
Here's a link that's quite useful for research info dealing with KD Preps:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Prep%20Races%2C%20Derby%20Winners%20%282015%29.pdf

OCF
03-25-2015, 04:54 PM
Here's a link that's quite useful for research info dealing with KD Preps:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u64720/Prep%20Races%2C%20Derby%20Winners%20%282015%29.pdf

I took a quick look, it is interesting. Thanks

OCF
03-25-2015, 05:01 PM
I would think the 4 weeks between the Wood & KD would be just right for the trainers to get their horses ready......instead, the 3 weeks between those races gave us the better results, doesn't make much sense to me as to why only a 3 week layoff would offer a better result. Maybe someone sees something I don't.

I did a lot of research into the timing of the 9 furlong races and the details are too numerous to go into here.

Suffice to say there appears to be a general trend in the direction of a 3 week or 4 week gap. That's EXTREMELY generalized though.

OCF
03-25-2015, 05:08 PM
Another conclusion: The Louisiana Derby, the 2015 running of which is this weekend, should be taken very seriously.

I think that might have already been mentioned in other threads.

SecretAgentMan
03-25-2015, 05:54 PM
I believe the winner of the LA derby has only won the Kentucky derby only twice.......as for the other horses that ran in the LA derby that came in 2nd or worse, I haven't checked the results. I do know Funny Cide came in 3rd in the LA derby in 2003 & then went on to come in 2nd in the Wood & then win the KD.

OCF
03-25-2015, 06:20 PM
I believe the winner of the LA derby has only won the Kentucky derby only twice.......as for the other horses that ran in the LA derby that came in 2nd or worse, I haven't checked the results. I do know Funny Cide came in 3rd in the LA derby in 2003 & then went on to come in 2nd in the Wood & then win the KD.

What interests me most is the 2 KD seconds and 2 KD thirds in the 5 years that the LD has been run at 9 furlongs, not to mention that those 5 years are the most recent years.

SecretAgentMan
03-25-2015, 06:33 PM
What interests me most is the 2 KD seconds and 2 KD thirds in the 5 years that the LD has been run at 9 furlongs, not to mention that those 5 years are the most recent years.



Yes, it is interesting.......looking at the upcomibg LA derby, Mr Z has earned $518,000 & has only won his maiden race......this horse has to be ready to break out, too many 2nds & 3rds. Int Star IMO won't win the LA derby, he will run a good 2nd IMO......I'm not betting the race, but think War Story, Mr Z or Keen Ice will win.

Out of those 4 horses that have a chance to win the derby, its Int Star & Mr Z (if he runs a good race & wins LA derby)........can't see Mr Z winning the derby off only a maiden win.

OCF
03-25-2015, 07:19 PM
Yes, it is interesting.......looking at the upcomibg LA derby, Mr Z has earned $518,000 & has only won his maiden race......this horse has to be ready to break out, too many 2nds & 3rds. Int Star IMO won't win the LA derby, he will run a good 2nd IMO......I'm not betting the race, but think War Story, Mr Z or Keen Ice will win.

Out of those 4 horses that have a chance to win the derby, its Int Star & Mr Z (if he runs a good race & wins LA derby)........can't see Mr Z winning the derby off only a maiden win.


I won't be betting it either. I think as much as anything I'll be looking after the race to see if any of the horses meet sbcaris's final fraction angle.

ReplayRandall
03-25-2015, 07:49 PM
Yes, it is interesting.......looking at the upcomibg LA derby, Mr Z has earned $518,000 & has only won his maiden race......this horse has to be ready to break out, too many 2nds & 3rds. Int Star IMO won't win the LA derby, he will run a good 2nd IMO......I'm not betting the race, but think War Story, Mr Z or Keen Ice will win.

Out of those 4 horses that have a chance to win the derby, its Int Star & Mr Z (if he runs a good race & wins LA derby)........can't see Mr Z winning the derby off only a maiden win.
That's what bettors thought in the 2005 Kentucky Derby won by Giacomo.....Look at the pay-offs you would have missed:

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
10 Giacomo Smith 102.60 45.80 19.80
18 Closing Argument Velasquez 70.00 24.80
12 Afleet Alex Rose 4.60

Winning Time: 2:02.75

$2 Exacta 10-18 9,814.80
$2 Trifecta 10-18-12 133,134.80
$1 Superfecta 10-18-12-17 864,253.20
$2 Oaks/Derby Double 595.20

SecretAgentMan
03-25-2015, 08:09 PM
That's what bettors thought in the 2005 Kentucky Derby won by Giacomo.....Look at the pay-offs you would have missed:

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
10 Giacomo Smith 102.60 45.80 19.80
18 Closing Argument Velasquez 70.00 24.80
12 Afleet Alex Rose 4.60

Winning Time: 2:02.75

$2 Exacta 10-18 9,814.80
$2 Trifecta 10-18-12 133,134.80
$1 Superfecta 10-18-12-17 864,253.20
$2 Oaks/Derby Double 595.20


Out of all the derby's I've played, Sea Hero baffles me the most, a close 2nd is Giacomo.....payouts were great if you had them, I certainly didn't.

But I see your point......in my eyes, Mr Z is way better than Giacomo at the point, at leadt from my capping perspective. Giacomo was more of a deep closer & never had the lead & then lost the lead in races after his maiden, where Mr Z has had the lead several times & hit a brick wall. I'm interested in seeing him run this Saturday.