What Horses Are Easy Throw Outs Not To Win The Kentucky Derby?

[SecretAgentMan]

I remember doing a thread last year, & we had a decent discussion. I know we still have 8 big prep races left before we should even think about throwing any horse out, but I'm confident in a few throw outs......

My list of throw outs as of March 20th:

OchoOchoOcho

Ocean's Knight

Lord Nelson

Mr Z

Daredevil


These are mine so far, will add many more after I've watched the races. Add your throwouts as well.

[Investorater]

In my top *Eight list. * :cool: *

Ocean Knight

Ocho - 3 . . . . . . .

[sbcaris]

Here are some interesting points about throw outs:

1) In March of 1993 would you have thrown out Sea Hero? He certainly looked like a poor choice based on two races in Feb, a ninth place finish on dirt and a third on turf.

2) Real Quiet would have been tossed on everyone's list prior to March 13th. He finished 9th beaten 22 lengths in the Golden Gate Derby. Of course after that he raced a solid second in the San Felipe which would put him in good stead again.

3) After a tiring fourth place finish in the SA Derby would you have thrown out Charismatic in 1999? He certainly looked like a very poor choice at that time. However, after running a 108 Beyer fig in the Lexington he then becomes a viable contender.

4) Would you have tossed War Emblem on March 16th. Up to that point he would have been a toss on everyones List. Then on March 17th he runs a bang-up 98 Beyer and wins by 10 and follows that up with a 6 length win in the Illinois Derby and then wins the roses.

5)Mine That Bird was a probable toss after the Sunland Derby where he finished a tiring fourth. Then goes on to win the roses at 50-1.

Main point: Although its not likely for horses like the above to win the roses, they can on occasion fool us and come back with a big effort in another prep or just wake up on Derby day and win the roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

Here are some interesting points about throw outs:

1) In March of 1993 would you have thrown out Sea Hero? He certainly looked like a poor choice based on two races in Feb, a ninth place finish on dirt and a third on turf.

2) Real Quiet would have been tossed on everyone's list prior to March 13th. He finished 9th beaten 22 lengths in the Golden Gate Derby. Of course after that he raced a solid second in the San Felipe which would put him in good stead again.

3) After a tiring fourth place finish in the SA Derby would you have thrown out Charismatic in 1999? He certainly looked like a very poor choice at that time. However, after running a 108 Beyer fig in the Lexington he then becomes a viable contender.

4) Would you have tossed War Emblem on March 16th. Up to that point he would have been a toss on everyones List. Then on March 17th he runs a bang-up 98 Beyer and wins by 10 and follows that up with a 6 length win in the Illinois Derby and then wins the roses.

5)Mine That Bird was a probable toss after the Sunland Derby where he finished a tiring fourth. Then goes on to win the roses at 50-1.

Main point: Although its not likely for horses like the above to win the roses, they can on occasion fool us and come back with a big effort in another prep or just wake up on Derby day and win the roses.


Oh, I understand exactly what you're saying, but I'm confident in all the horses ive tossed unless they run some crazy number like Charismatic did......

Of all the above horses you mentioned, Sea Hero baffles me the most & he wasn't a long shot like MTB.

I wouldn't have thrown out Real Quiet on the basis what he had won before that loss.....also, there was about a foot of water on the track that day he lost 8th by 22 lengths......he had won the Hollywood Cup G1 the month before putting up a 102 beyer. His big loss was on Jan 18th........I don't throw out horses in Jan......we're towards the end of March.

Also, horses don't run as much as they use too......Real Quiet ran 12 times before the derby, that's very unusual now a days.

I wouldnt have thrown out MTB, he ran 2nd by a neck in Feb........

I definitely threw out Charismatic, I thought he was a piece of crap......until his Lexington race.

I could make my list linger as I have plenty of other horses I don't like, but I want to see their last race.

I don't think Mr Z can win at the classic distance. He's been in 1st too many times & hits a brick wall.

[sbcaris]

Secret Agent Man: You said you were confident in your tosses UNLESS they run some crazy number like Charismatic.

That is why I say it is wrong to toss anybody at this point. The most important races leading up to the Derby are the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby. These are the definitive races at 9 furlongs and none of them has been run yet. They are the deciding races to select the probable winner of the Derby (Not the other races at 8 and 8.5 furlongs.

Here is an interesting point. Thru the month of March last year Danza was a clear cut toss. He never had a Beyer figure higher than an 81. Then on April 14th he runs a 102 Beyer fig winning the Ark Derby by 4 1/2 lengths. All of a sudden he becomes a contender in the Derby and goes off at 8-1 and finishes third beaten only by 3 lengths. He certainly wasn't a toss in March despite not showing much until that date because he developed all of a sudden into a true contender after that April 12th powerful win in the Ark Derby.

If you read the comments about Danza in the result chart you might even say with better racing luck he wins or runs second in that Derby. Racing Luck often decides the Derby and bumping and crowding and pushing and shoving are commonplace. The comments follow:

Danza was shuffled back in the opening stages, gathered momentum into the far turn, progressed between runners at the 3/8 marker, awaited room nearing the furlongs, steered out bumping medal count, straightened out and continued on with interest

Main point: I would NOT toss any horse until the 5 major prep races are completed. That 102 Beyer fig changed many a horseplayer's outlook about this colt.

Another example from last year is Wicked Strong who was not likely to be a contender until his bang up race in the Wood Memorial on April 5th when he ran a 104 Beyer fig.

[Rex Phinney]

I agree that we are a good 2-3 weeks from even BEGINNING to disect the contenders.

[Rex Phinney]

And FWIW I think this year a longshot will win the race, the last two years the favorite won. Right now you have the top 3 horses all with big name trainers who will bring money at the window.

I was on the Orb and Chrome Bandwagon, but this year I'll be hunting a big price.

[SecretAgentMan]

Secret Agent Man: You said you were confident in your tosses UNLESS they run some crazy number like Charismatic.

That is why I say it is wrong to toss anybody at this point. The most important races leading up to the Derby are the Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby. These are the definitive races at 9 furlongs and none of them has been run yet. They are the deciding races to select the probable winner of the Derby (Not the other races at 8 and 8.5 furlongs.

Here is an interesting point. Thru the month of March last year Danza was a clear cut toss. He never had a Beyer figure higher than an 81. Then on April 14th he runs a 102 Beyer fig winning the Ark Derby by 4 1/2 lengths. All of a sudden he becomes a contender in the Derby and goes off at 8-1 and finishes third beaten only by 3 lengths. He certainly wasn't a toss in March despite not showing much until that date because he developed all of a sudden into a true contender after that April 12th powerful win in the Ark Derby.

If you read the comments about Danza in the result chart you might even say with better racing luck he wins or runs second in that Derby. Racing Luck often decides the Derby and bumping and crowding and pushing and shoving are commonplace. The comments follow:

Danza was shuffled back in the opening stages, gathered momentum into the far turn, progressed between runners at the 3/8 marker, awaited room nearing the furlongs, steered out bumping medal count, straightened out and continued on with interest

Main point: I would NOT toss any horse until the 5 major prep races are completed. That 102 Beyer fig changed many a horseplayer's outlook about this colt.

Another example from last year is Wicked Strong who was not likely to be a contender until his bang up race in the Wood Memorial on April 5th when he ran a 104 Beyer fig.



I hear what you're saying, I didn't like Funny Cide until I saw his Wood race vs Empire Maker......that race gave me confidence to bet on a gelding from NY.

I agree that the main big prep races are must watch closely to see if we can catch a gem.

I believe I have premature elimination, haha.......I'm just ready to get threw all these prep races already & get down to business.

[SecretAgentMan]

And FWIW I think this year a longshot will win the race, the last two years the favorite won. Right now you have the top 3 horses all with big name trainers who will bring money at the window.

I was on the Orb and Chrome Bandwagon, but this year I'll be hunting a big price.


I agree that it will be a long shot........my list above should include Dortmund, Pharaoh, Carpe Diem

[ArlJim78]

It's just too early for this. Let's see who gets in first.
Two weeks from Sunday would be a good time to start this kind of talk, leaving four full weeks to beat it to death.

[letswastemoney]

El Kabeir has zero chance.

[SecretAgentMan]

El Kabeir has zero chance.



I had this horse in my final 4 possible horses, but I think he will be outmatched on derby day.

[ultracapper]

I was in love with giacomo until he ran what I thought was a hanging stretch run in the SA Derby. I always think that if I hadn't gotten excited about him before the SA Derby I wouldn't have been so disappointed in that race and maybe I would have landed on him at Churchill.

Point being, it's too early not only to toss any, but to start endorsing any either. Too much between now and first Saturday in May.

[Secondbest]

It's just too early for this. Let's see who gets in first.
Two weeks from Sunday would be a good time to start this kind of talk, leaving four full weeks to beat it to death.
AMEN

[SecretAgentMan]

I was in love with giacomo until he ran what I thought was a hanging stretch run in the SA Derby. I always think that if I hadn't gotten excited about him before the SA Derby I wouldn't have been so disappointed in that race and maybe I would have landed on him at Churchill.

Point being, it's too early not only to toss any, but to start endorsing any either. Too much between now and first Saturday in May.


I agree, but I still like putting the horses I like as of now on a short list. I don't like analyzing these horses to death & then come derby day, my head is spinning. I only pick 1 horse by derby day, not 3 or 4 to bet on.

Will there be a Charismatic or War Emblem this year? Well Pharaoh is shaping up as a War Emblem but I can't play him. Will we see a 50-1 shot like Giacomo or MTB? Possibly........if we do see a 50-1 shot win the derby, these last big prep raced are meaningless then, because they won't be 1st or 2nd.

[SecretAgentMan]

I would like to add, I could change my mind & pick an entirely different horse for the derby than the horses I like as of now, but it will always be only 1 horse.

[sbcaris]

Here is a method that can toss out around 70% of the Derby field and has a win percentage around 67%. All you need do when the entries are drawn for the Derby is to eliminate any horse that does not achieve a final 3/8 of 37 4/5 or less or a final 1/8 of 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race (Fla Derby, Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass or Ark Derby). This method hit 10 of the last 15 Derbies. The only exceptions since the year 2000 were: Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Street Sense, Mine that Bird, and War Emblem.

This method gets approximately 30% starters in the Derby on the average which translates into 6 horses per year. And from these 30% starters we get 67% winners. The impact value for the above angle is a strong 2.23 which means these types win the roses a little more than twice as often as expected.

I did the above research back to 1973 so it was a 40 year period where the above stats were derived.

[SecretAgentMan]

Here is a method that can toss out around 70% of the Derby field and has a win percentage around 67%. All you need do when the entries are drawn for the Derby is to eliminate any horse that does not achieve a final 3/8 of 37 4/5 or less or a final 1/8 of 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race (Fla Derby, Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass or Ark Derby). This method hit 10 of the last 15 Derbies. The only exceptions since the year 2000 were: Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Street Sense, Mine that Bird, and War Emblem.

This method gets approximately 30% starters in the Derby on the average which translates into 6 horses per year. And from these 30% starters we get 67% winners. The impact value for the above angle is a strong 2.23 which means these types win the roses a little more than twice as often as expected.

I did the above research back to 1973 so it was a 40 year period where the above stats were derived.


Love your work sbcaris.......you bring a lot of good stuff to the table helping many of us with our capping, thanks in advance.

I'm assuming Firing Line finished the last 1/8th of a miile in less than the above time mentioned or the 3/8th mile as well. He was flying........

[sbcaris]

He won easily and raced the final 3/8 in 38 1/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 3/5.

However, my method above if you read it carefully ONLY considers a fast finish in one of 5 big preps: SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood, Fla Derby, and Ark Derby.
The statistics I stated above only refer to those races over the last 40 years. 67% of the time the Derby winner qualifies on fast final fractions in one of the above 5 preps.

There were 5 Exceptions to the Rule in the last 15 years (there wil always be exceptions)--Animal Kingdom who never ran on dirt until Derby day, Big Brown who missed qualifying by 1/5 of a second, Street Sense who ran on a polytrack at Keenland in his only prep at 9 furlongs for the Derby, War Emblem who raced in the Illinois Derby and did run a fast final 3/8 but the Illinois Derby is not one of my big 5 prep races and Mine That Bird who just did not qualify at all.

[SecretAgentMan]

OK sbcaris, I will wait patiently for the results of the 5 big prep races.

[boys at tosconova]

spanish chestnut

[SecretAgentMan]

Firing Line received a 97 after winning by 14 1/2 lengths crushing the lower tier field, which was low from what I witnessed, but beyer knows his stuff.


Firing Line is a toss out for me, can't see him winning the derby. He won Bellamy Road style, but didn't get Bellamy's number.

[f2tornado]

Firing Line is a toss out for me, can't see him winning the derby. He won Bellamy Road style, but didn't get Bellamy's number.

I don't think it wins either given the breeding (Storm Cat horses have never won the Derby in something like 44 starters and Northern Dancer horses have had limited success.) but the horse could be an elite miler. Reminds me of Goldencents. Thing is, if a person doesn't like Firing Line in the Derby then same person shouldn't like Dortmund all that much either. They're only about a length apart at 8.5F. I'm having a tough time tossing that one even though Northern Dancer horses only win the Derby about once per decade.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't think it wins either given the breeding (Storm Cat horses have never won the Derby in something like 44 starters and Northern Dancer horses have had limited success.) but the horse could be an elite miler. Reminds me of Goldencents. Thing is, if a person doesn't like Firing Line in the Derby then same person shouldn't like Dortmund all that much either. They're only about a length apart at 8.5F. I'm having a tough time tossing that one even though Northern Dancer horses only win the Derby about once per decade.



Like that stat man......0-44 is a solid negative against FL

[Stillriledup]

I would suggest to not commit yourself to throwouts weeks in advance, remember, you don't get paid extra for tossing horses today, so why not wait till the last possible second? Wait till you see horses warming up on the track before you "toss" horses out?

Handicappers want to be "heroes" but all that matters is if you cash a ticket. This isn't YOUR Ky Derby, its the derby of the owners of the horses...to you, its just another gambling opportunity..a tough race with 20 horses running a distance they've never run before, on a track most of them haven't ever raced on before and lots of other unknowns including much more strict prerace security, so if your horse has a cheating trainer or is running in a circuit that is the "wild west" its a whole lot different on Derby day.

Stick with horses who win battles, not horses who swell up and win by large margins unchallenged..those horses, unless they have previously showed "fighting power" you have to tread lightly with these large margin winners, horses like Verrazano winning by country miles but when they get into the battle and get bumped around a bit and have to be a professional racehorse, they can underachieve at short prices.

There's no advantage to toss out horses today, wait till as late as you can, there' no financial benefit to toss one now, they don't pay you extra.

[Capper Al]

Toss anything that I pick.

[minethatbird08]

El Kabeir is a toss for me regardless of how well he does in the Wood.

I am only considering horses with 50 or more points, fwiw. I start capping them once they meet that threshold because they are in for sure minus injury/illness and it gives me less work to do the week leading into the KD.

[SecretAgentMan]

There are definite pros to watch horses at Churchill the week of the derby, like Animal Kingdom & Super Saver.....kind of think that's why AK's odds went from 30-1 to 20-1......Super Saver 15-1 to 8-1 by closing.

On the other hand, I've seen horses have great workouts over Churchill & not do squat on derby day.

I can't just wait until a few days before the derby to pick my horse.......my mind would be scrambled eggs with all the hype that's thrown around that week.

Nothing wrong with throwing out horses in late March that IMO have no shot of winning, of course that horse I threw out might do something spectacular in his last race & I pick him back up & put him back on my short list.......but I'm very confident in saying I won't be betting on Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, or Carpe Diem to win come May 2nd.

I am confident in saying a medium to long shot will win this year, but the question is who? I'm thinking 10-1 or higher.......

The Smarty Jones, Big Browns & Cali Chromes are easy to pick out......its not that they are so great, as it is those years there is a weaker crop of 3 yr olds they're running against......of course this can be argued. Not taking anything away from those horses, as they were monsters.

This year the 3 year old crop is more even with the stand outs being a tad better than their opponents. IMO, Dortmund peaked already, so did Pharaoh......Firing Line broke the Sunland track record at 1 1/8th..........easy throwouts for me.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The newcomers like Dubai Sky and I Spent It look like candidates for a possible upset. I really like the broodmare's damside of I Spent It.

[Stoleitbreezing]

There are definite pros to watch horses at Churchill the week of the derby, like Animal Kingdom & Super Saver.....kind of think that's why AK's odds went from 30-1 to 20-1......Super Saver 15-1 to 8-1 by closing.

On the other hand, I've seen horses have great workouts over Churchill & not do squat on derby day.

I can't just wait until a few days before the derby to pick my horse.......my mind would be scrambled eggs with all the hype that's thrown around that week.

Nothing wrong with throwing out horses in late March that IMO have no shot of winning, of course that horse I threw out might do something spectacular in his last race & I pick him back up & put him back on my short list.......but I'm very confident in saying I won't be betting on Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, or Carpe Diem to win come May 2nd.

I am confident in saying a medium to long shot will win this year, but the question is who? I'm thinking 10-1 or higher.......

The Smarty Jones, Big Browns & Cali Chromes are easy to pick out......its not that they are so great, as it is those years there is a weaker crop of 3 yr olds they're running against......of course this can be argued. Not taking anything away from those horses, as they were monsters.

This year the 3 year old crop is more even with the stand outs being a tad better than their opponents. IMO, Dortmund peaked already, so did Pharaoh......Firing Line broke the Sunland track record at 1 1/8th..........easy throwouts for me.

I agree with you on much of what you said. Although I'm not so sure I'd throw the big 3 out of my derby tickets just yet. I will also be looking for value and a longshot or two when making my final derby wagers.

I find it interesting that Firing Line is being highly thought of beating nothing at Sunland, whereas International Star is being dismissed as too slow to compete with the top contenders off of what he did in Louisiana. International Star's wins albeit against weak fields were more professional/workmen like coming off the rail or splitting horses then Firing Line's wire to wire jog against nothing. I'll be looking to see what Upstart, Frosted, Tiz Shea D, and International Star do in their next races as i think they offer the most value come derby day.

Throwouts: OchoOchoOcho , Daredevil, Keen Ice, Frammento, Classy Class, Bold Conquest, Mr. Z, and Conquest Typhoon

[cnollfan]

Pletcher is 1 for 40 in the Derby and they weren't all longshots either. There are elements of his training style that suggest the above stat might be more than a statistical fluke. Precocious horses trained to be fast early, building their reputation with big margin, big figure, easy trip wins versus overmatched foes.

[SecretAgentMan]

Pletcher is 1 for 40 in the Derby and they weren't all longshots either. There are elements of his training style that suggest the above stat might be more than a statistical fluke. Precocious horses trained to be fast early, building their reputation with big margin, big figure, easy trip wins versus overmatched foes.



Pletcher is awesome in the preps before the KD, but when these same horses step into the gate in May, they dont do well......you stated it very well that Pletcher focuses on training his horses to go fast early on in the race. Super Saver had fast forwardly speed as well but rated nicely in the Arkansas derby going into the derby, lucky for Pletcher, SS was able to rate easily.

[SecretAgentMan]

International Star wins 3 in a row going into the KD........

Mr Z is officially a toss out for me as is every other horse from the LA derby except for the beast Int Star

[SecretAgentMan]

ItsAKnockout is s complete throw out & so is every other horse in the Florida derby except for Upstart & Materiality.......I'm.so glad Upstart came in 2nd, looking to get 15-1 or better if I decide to play him in the KD.

[Secondbest]

I don't think the derby winner ran today. None of these could break 1:50. Lets see What the big 3 AP, CD and Dortmond can do next week.

[SecretAgentMan]

Last time the Florida derby was run this slow was 1990 by Unbridled, 1:52 & change in Fla derby......he went on to win the Kentucky Derby.

Don't fall in live with the times too much, the Gulfstream track has been running slow & dull all year.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't think the derby winner ran today. None of these could break 1:50. Lets see What the big 3 AP, CD and Dortmond can do next week.


I think the derby winner ran today, but I will keep an eye out next 2 weeks for a horse to jump out & impress me & I'm not talking about the favs.

[Secondbest]

Lets wait and see What happens.Its Still early but 152 is real slow.The La derby had a 114 6 f. Home in 36 +. Hard for me to like but like I said lets wait till next week.

[PaceMasterT]

Lets wait and see What happens.Its Still early but 152 is real slow.The La derby had a 114 6 f. Home in 36 +. Hard for me to like but like I said lets wait till next week.

Rule #1, 2, or 3 (I forget :D) - You should love a horse that can close on a slow pace.

[SecretAgentMan]

Lets wait and see What happens.Its Still early but 152 is real slow.The La derby had a 114 6 f. Home in 36 +. Hard for me to like but like I said lets wait till next week.



I actually like International Star as of now.......its between him & Upstart for me as of now, but I will wait & see if anything pops up next 2 weeks. I do not like Mubtaahij at all or Dubai Sky.

[Secondbest]

Rule #1, 2, or 3 (I forget :D) - You should love a horse that can close on a slow pace.
Not if the leader is gasping for air.

[f2tornado]

Indeed. I was not that impressed with the performances today. Three monster preps next week followed by what looks to be a yawn Ark. No rush.

[PaceMasterT]

I actually like International Star as of now.......its between him & Upstart for me as of now, but I will wait & see if anything pops up next 2 weeks. I do not like Mubtaahij at all or Dubai Sky.

How can you like Upstart? Materiality chewed him up and spit him out and it was only Materiality's third race.

[SecretAgentMan]

Forgot to mention that International Star has the best breeding of any horse in this years crop.

[SecretAgentMan]

How can you like Upstart? Materiality chewed him up and spit him out and it was only Materiality's third race.



Lol, if he beat Upstart by 5 lengths, I would say he chewed him up & spit him out, not even close. Upstart was right on his hip the whole way around, Materiality will never get an easy trip like that in the KD.

If you think Rich had Upstart fully cranked, you're kidding yourself.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think the derby winner ran today, but I will keep an eye out next 2 weeks for a horse to jump out & impress me & I'm not talking about the favs.
In Dubai ?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

War Story.

Can people stop talking about War Story and how the distance will be his friend in Kentucky?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I think the derby winner ran today, but I will keep an eye out next 2 weeks for a horse to jump out & impress me & I'm not talking about the favs.

The best preps and horses haven't even run...:eek:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Forgot to mention that International Star has the best breeding of any horse in this years crop.

Not sure if you are serious.

[Secondbest]

Just checked the PFs on Steve Romans site Materiality got a -61 which is the 3rd best this year.IS got a -51.AP was -49 In his debut. Looks like the track was way slower than I thought. Lets see What next week brings.

[BlueChip@DRF]

From the list of Pool 4:
Pool 4 LINK (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KDFW4.pdf)

Far Right
Frosted
Madefromlucky
Mubtaahij
Prospect Park
Conquest Typhoon
Cross The Line
Cyrus Alexander
Danzig Moon
Defondo
Firespike
Gold Shield
Metaboss
One Lucky Dane
Royal Son
Unrivaled

[SecretAgentMan]

Not sure if you are serious.



I'm always serious, even when I'm not......

[SecretAgentMan]

The best preps and horses haven't even run...:eek:



The best preps haven't run, no, but the best horses will NOT win this years derby.......

[SecretAgentMan]

Just checked the PFs on Steve Romans site Materiality got a -61 which is the 3rd best this year.IS got a -51.AP was -49 In his debut. Looks like the track was way slower than I thought. Lets see What next week brings.



I've never looked at his site, what do you gather on what the heck is going on in Florida at the Gulfstream track? Its like someone purposely did something to the track to make it deep & slow. Last year it was like watching horses at Santa Anita.

[SecretAgentMan]

From the list of Pool 4:
Pool 4 LINK (http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KDFW4.pdf)

Far Right
Frosted
Madefromlucky
Mubtaahij
Prospect Park
Conquest Typhoon
Cross The Line
Cyrus Alexander
Danzig Moon
Defondo
Firespike
Gold Shield
Metaboss
One Lucky Dane
Royal Son
Unrivaled


Those are all throwouts for me as well.

[Frost king]

How can anyone take International Star seriously, just like Upstart, they are both NY-breds. It is called the KENTUCKY Derby for a reason.

[Secondbest]

I've never looked at his site, what do you gather on what the heck is going on in Florida at the Gulfstream track? Its like someone purposely did something to the track to make it deep & slow. Last year it was like watching horses at Santa Anita.
Chef-de-race.com

[Secondbest]

Why They slowed it up I have no idea.Its really slow.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The best preps haven't run, no, but the best horses will NOT win this years derby.......

Soooo..... Firing Line is going to win?

[SecretAgentMan]

How can anyone take International Star seriously, just like Upstart, they are both NY-breds. It is called the KENTUCKY Derby for a reason.


No offense, but Funny Cide & Smarty Jones were 2 good/great horses, & both were not bred in KY.

Also a monster of a horse named Silver Charm was bred in Florida........Lil E Tee in Pa. Of course we will have most derby winners bred in Kentucky, they have like 90% of the horses every year that run for the roses.

I nwver said International Star & Upstart would win the derby, those are the only 2 i see that i like as if now to win. Of course my mind could easily change from now until the after we see all the prep races.

[SecretAgentMan]

Chef-de-race.com


Oh, OK, thanks......I've been on that site, very good info.

[SecretAgentMan]

Soooo..... Firing Line is going to win?



If I could bet that Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, & Carpe Diem won't win the derby, & make them all an entry, I would lay the hammer down that these 4 won't win the derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

Materiality received a 110 beyer, & I'm assuming Upstart will get about a 107.......I guess the slow time of 1:52 didn't mean much.

International Star received a 98.........

[PizzaCat]

Time to revive this thread now that the post positions have been drawn?

Ocho Ocho Ocho is probably the easiest toss of the bunch. In both of his starts this year he has been gassed in the final furlong and now has the dreaded rail post position.